On Friday, I was privileged to speak with former Assembly member John Laird and Senator Lois Wolk on the issues facing California’s water future.  Well, today, some sort of water plan was released as SBX7-1, and SacBee has a copy of the language in PDF. It’s 163 pages, and to be quite honest, I’ve not yet had the chance to get fully through it.

The key of this is that the financing has not been worked out.  There is supposed to be some sort of a Big 5 meeting to work on financing in the next few days, but Speaker Bass has already inticated that she is growing weary of the negotiating in the dark and would like a more open process.  

But as John Laird said last week, the key to this deal is the financing. Without subsidies from the state’s general fund, the big deals for the Westlands and Metropolitan Water Districts simply do not pencil out for their customers. The SoCal Water agencies are feeding off the Delta, setting the stage for a big political firestorm.

There were quite a few developments today beyond the simple release of the plan. Accompanying the release of the plan was the news that the San Francisco Public Utilies Commission, which is SF’s water district, has decided to back the bill as it currently stands.  This is a break from previous statements, including a letter they signed indicating opposition to what was only a slightly different package at the time. The support of the SFPUC, a very strong water district that also controls the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir, gives Sen. Steinberg’s bill a shot to win over some Northern California legislators. Whether it’s enough to get the votes is up in the air.

Meanwhile, in a story for the Capitol Weekly, the two powerful SoCal water agencies that originally pushed for a Peripheral Canal, the Westlands and Metropolitan Districts, think that this bill moves us closer to such a concept. Some say that’s not the case, but hopefully by the time something passes, we can at least get a definitive answer about whether this does further the concept of a peripheral canal.

We can get a portion of the way to meeting our future water needs with a bit more storage. But, quite simply, we can’t build our way out of the water crisis. No matter how much we build, we will not create additional rain or mitigate the effects that climate change will have upon the state.

So, conservation is where the rubber meets the road. Consider this:

New dams would produce up to 1 million acre-feet of water annually, compared with up to 3.1 million acre-feet freed up each year by new water efficiency programs, according to the delta task force, which cited state Department of Water Resources statistics. (Fresno Bee 10/21/09)

The question then is how we create some of the efficiencies to actually conserve the water. Some conservations are fairly straightforward. For example, many cities do not yet have water meters, installing them will rapidly reduce water usage as people get an idea of how much they are using and start paying for excessive use.

The bigger question is where these conservation gains will come from, and how do hold users accountable.  There are a number of questions to look at, and this Fresno Bee article does a pretty good job taking a look at some of the bigger issues.

One issue that seems to always pop up is the question of coastal vs non-coastal. In the current negotiations, Republicans are arguing that coastal cities aren’t required to do enough for conservation. Much of that is because many coastal cities have already put in some pretty effective conservation measures. Under the current proposal, the targets for each city are generally a 20% reduction, but cities that have already made reductions have to do less.

The biggest question is enforcement.  Republicans want to give the least possible teeth to this measure by assuring that their could not be any legal ramifications of failing to meet the requirements, which Democrats already say isn’t in the bill.  However, it isn’t at all clear that without the possibility of legal challenges there will be enough teeth to actually enforce with only some grants as a carrot for compliance.  In other words, the bill is all carrot, and no stick.  If you meet the targets, you get some extra grants, if you miss them, you don’t. But the water still gets pumped either way.

If this water package is going to last for more than 5 or 10 years, it is going to need to be able to require very strict water efficiency. However, the key is getting beyond short-term political gain to do what’s best for the state. Whether that happens appears to be up to the Legislative Republicans…again.

The Republicans are quite conflicted over whether they want to court the Latino vote, in California and beyond. Do they want to bang on the immigration drum to rally the (occasionally racist) base, or do they want to try to pick up votes in some districts that are fast becoming unwinnable without Latino votes?

But, while offering up fake solutions to very real problems won’t do it in the long-term, it might carry some very real short-term electoral benefit.

GOP leaders have put water atop their agenda for next year’s statewide campaigns. They are expanding voter-registration efforts in the drought-stricken Central Valley, where unemployment is high and food banks are busy, and encouraging candidates to reach out to Latino voters hit hard by the recession.

The strategy was distilled on a 5-foot-high banner at the Republican voter registration table in front of a Walmart store in Dinuba (Tulare County) in August: “Stop the radical environmentalists. Save your water. Save your jobs. Vote Republican.”

“When I saw the (registration) numbers from that weekend, I fell off my chair,” said Johnny Amaral, chief of staff for Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Alpaugh (Tulare County). “I’ve never seen something work like this.”(SF Chronicle 10/19/2009)

Water has now become a pocketbook issue to many Californians, and it shouldn’t surprise anybody to find that pocketbooks take precedence over environmental issues. As the Clinton 1992 campaign often stated, it’s the economy, stupid.  And right now, water is at the heart of the questions surrounding the Central Valley’s economy.

Now, to the cynicism. The proposed water “solutions” being offered up by the Republicans in the state bring neither water nor solutions.  They don’t bring additional water to the table. Not one more drop of rain will fall simply because we have additional storage capacity and a brand new shiny dam.  These “solutions” are temporary and ignore the realities of the effects of climate change. So, if by solutions, you are only looking at electoral prospects, then maybe. if you are actually concerned about the future of the Central Valley, these are as far from solutions as San Francisco is from Bakersfield.

Yet for some reason, we continue to push for expensive construction while ignoring many far more cost effective options. We continue to grow crops that don’t belong in the region and take far too much water to grow here. For example, it takes roughly twice the amount of water to grow cotton as compared to say soybeans, according to the cotton industry’s own numbers. Instead of actually trying to build solutions to make Central Valley farming sustainable, the Republicans are simply exploiting the region by pandering, rather than challenging them to build towards the future.

In many ways, the issue now presents one similar to that presented by gun control twenty years ago. Then, we lost control of an issue, ceeded the constitutional high ground and let the right-wing jurisprudence and activism carry the day. It still carries the day.  The difference is that we cannot simply give up on environmentalism nor the Central Valley.

But the Republicans will continue to astroturf and play on the fears of the Central Valley.  Whether this is enough to overcome all the race-baiting going on in the right-wing is still an open question.

A rather impressive group of cities, counties, and water agencies has teamed up to write a letter asking the Legislature to slow down the water package to ensure that their are no negative impacts upon the Delta.  The list includes the City of Sacramento, the counties of Contra Costa, Sacramento, Solano, and San Joaquin, the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission and the Central Delta Water Agency. The letter itself (h/t EJ Schultz of the Fresno Bee) is pretty short and to the point:

We are writing to inform you that while we support the objective of fixing the Delta and increasing the reliability of water supplies for all of California, the current Delta package needs further work to ensure all regions of California are treated fairly. Put simply, in its current form, this legislation would harm Northern California.

We ask that the Legislature withhold and oppose any vote on a water package until, in addition to addressing the need for a reliable water supply for the entire state, it assures that there are no redirected impacts to the Delta and Northern California and sufficient protections are in place to protect Northern California’s and the Delta’s water supplies.

The Delta water package must fairly address the needs of Northern California, the economic viability and health of the Delta while assuring a reliable water supply for the entire State.

See, when it comes to water, there are so many dynamics as to make this an absolute mess. There’s obviously North Vs. South, as it rains in the North, but doesn’t in the South of the state. There’s different parts of the Central Valley fighting over the various scraps of water. And those who live on or near the Delta versus, well, those who don’t.

And balancing all those interests, along with environmental concerns isn’t easy. Yet, it is clear that there is an extraordinary level of pressure to just get this done as quickly as possible. A deal for a deal’s sake is simply not worth it.

For a while, the numbers bandied about in the water debate have been in the range of $10-20 billion. Those are simply the general fund bond numbers.  But the real numbers are much, much higher. How high?

According to a recent study by the Strategic Economic Applications Company, the numbers are between $52 and $78 Billion dollars for the entire Delta legislation package. (See Table 1 to the right for a portion of those numbers.) You can grab a full report on the package below the fold (or here).

I said earlier this week that the water construction costs should be paid by customers, and much of that money is going to be paid by customers in the form of revenue bonds.  BUt in the past, about 3-5% of the bill has come from the general fund. We are now looking at anywhere between 20-45% being paid off of general fund.

But you won’t hear these numbers being bandied about by Sean Hannity, the Westlands Water District and the astroturf artists of Burson-Marsteller and their “Latino Water Coalition”. No, to them, this is just Democrats holding the farmers down.

But the biggest problem with all of this construction, is that despite all of the environmental havoc that we would create with these new dams and storage, we will have no new water. A dam won’t make the rain come nor the snows accumulate.  We are fighting over a ever-shrinking pie, yet still avoiding discussing how we can use our resources better.  We allow water to be wasted in the suburbs, and grow water-heavy crops in land that just isn’t suited for it.

We need to focus on both conservation and land management if we are to really solve the water crisis. We simply cannot build our way out of climate change.

Water Package Analysis –

On Sunday, Robert took a look at Arnold’s water demands:

John Laird gives a truly excellent overview that explains that the only other dam built by state government, the Oroville Dam which is a key part of the State Water Project, had 97% of its cost paid for by the actual users of the system, with the other 3% coming from taxpayers in the form of financial support (low-interest loans, for example). Yet the current demand is that taxpayers pay as much as 50% of the cost of a new dam, despite the fact that many Californians will never see any benefit from that dam, a dam which likely won’t be built for a decade or more and which will, because it is likely to be built at low elevation, will not catch much water and will essentially be useless.

This point cannot be overstated.  For decades, the Western Central Valley has gotten subsidized water. It’s built the Westlands Water District area into the fruit and vegetable capitol of the country. It produces all this produce (haha!) in a region that needs irrigated water. Because while the topsoil is fertile, the under-layer of clay sucks up water.  And during all of this, while the cities along the coast pay top dollar for their water, the Westlands gets a cut rate for agreeing to be the first to be cut off.

But that doesn’t stop them from bitching when they do get cut off.

The contradictions involved in all of this are striking.  For those who claim to support Adam Smith’s invisible hand of the market, it makes for a remarkable statement.  They are arguing that water should be subsidized in order to interfere with the market.  So, the money is transferred from the pockets of Californians and into the pockets of agribusiness and out of state consumers.

Any water deal must retain the balance of payment that we’ve seen in the past. At most 5-10% of the payments should come from bonds or other general fund payments, the rest should come from revenue bonds. Those who use the water should pay for it. Yes, this will make produce more expensive, which is a regrettable consequence.  But it is the only equitable way to share the costs.

All of that said, even with all of this construction, there is no additional water. We are just playing shell games with what we have. At some point we have to look at sustainability giving the coming risk of climate change.

So remember the last legislative year? Well, if Arnold follows through on his latest threat, you might as well forget it.  He’s threatening to veto every bill on his desk if he doesn’t get a water deal by, um, tomorrow.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger  today affirmed a looming threat to veto a large bulk of the bills that have been sent to his desk unless lawmakers can strike a deal on a package of water bills.

“I made it very clear to the legislators and to the leaders that if this does not get done then I will veto a lot of their legislation, a lot of their bills, so that should inspire them to go and get the job done,” he said at the end of remarks to the Association of Community College Trustees’ Leadership Congress, which is meeting in San Francisco today. (CapAlert 10/08/2009)

We’ve mentioned the water issue for a long time, but there is no way to overemphasize one critical point: No matter how many projects you build, you do not get any additional water. The rush about getting water for the West Central Valley is toxic to the state government and to the environment.

The West Central Valley is a relatively dry area. The soil is fairly fertile, but right underneath it lies a layer of clay that sucks water away from the topsoil.  That means lots of tilling and lots of water.  But in order for these farmers, most of which are big corporate operations, to make any real money, water has to be very, very cheap. Unnaturally cheap.

This, of course, is why there wasn’t much agriculture done in the area by the native peoples. It was too inefficient to bring water there. But once we built a slew of pumps, it could be done. The problem is that pumps are expensive, and the farmers of the Western Central Valley don’t want to pay for it.

The Westlands Water District has been getting cheap water for a long time, but they are the bottom rung on the water priority list. They are trying to use the crisis in Sacramento and the drought to get around the contracts that they signed last year putting them at a lower priority in exchange for a lower price.

And Arnold is trying to help them to do just that by threatening, intimidating, and generally being a jerk.  And of course, Susan Kennedy, his “Democratic” Chief of Staff, is right there with him.  Putting a gun to the head of not only the legislature, but some very important measures.

This is no way to govern.  Arnold, You Lie!

UPDATE by Dave: I just want to add to the chorus of how appalling this is.  We’re talking about legislative blackmail.

And incredibly, Arnold has an ally in palace courtier George Skelton:

It’s ugly. But it’s an available political tool that the governor would be derelict not to use when an issue as critical as water is at stake.

This isn’t about some narrow scheme important only to a narrow interest. Nor is it merely about a governor’s pet project — other than his legacy-building, which should be encouraged as long as it helps the state. It’s about finally resolving an acute, decades-old problem that is worsening and affects practically all Californians.

Here’s another old white man with health insurance who could give a crap if women get maternity care in their health insurance plans, to just pick one bill at random.  Or who could care less if people who have insurance get dropped from it when they want to use it, to pick another.  George Skelton would actively make the lives of Californians worse because he thinks it’s sporting to see the Governor “use his power.”  That the power is illegal is of no consequence.

Then there’s this whopper:

These and other arguments — such as details of a new governing system for the delta — have raged for years. Schwarzenegger apparently doesn’t much care what the Legislature decides. He just wants it to compromise and send him a bill.

Yeah, he doesn’t care at all.  He actually invented the Latino Water Coalition, the fake-grassroots group pushing all the Republican solutions in water negotiations, but he’s really just an innocent bystander.  An innocent bystander who would destroy women’s health and allow insurance companies to kill people for profit and a host of other things, all with an asshole like George Skelton cheering him on.

One reason why I didn’t particularly care for the Guardian’s Failifornia article was that it was really a human interest piece masquerading as a serious argument.   It’s not because its data was flawed or its tone insincere – though there’s some of that; the long section on Mendota neglects to mention that the city hinges entirely on agriculture and features 30% unemployment or more ANYTIME there’s a drought, unconnected to the larger structural problems in the state – but because it didn’t even try to assess the root causes of the crisis or the steps for resolution.

For example, it would be beneficial to take a look at the culture of blackmail we have here in state government (as an aside, did the writer even visit Sacramento?).  Politicians have learned over 30-plus years of dealing with onerous budget requirements that threatening blackmail is really the best way to get anything done.  Witness Arnold Schwarzenegger, threatening to veto nearly 700 bills that have passed both houses of the Legislature unless he gets his way on a water bill.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, apparently standing by a threat to veto hundreds of bills on his desk unless a deal can be reached on the state’s water problems, has suggested to Senate leader Darrell Steinberg that all legislation before the governor should be withdrawn to avoid a veto. About 700 bills are awaiting action.

Schwarzenegger did not formally request that the bills be yanked, but that was the implicit suggestion in his proposal, Capitol sources said.

The communications between Steinberg and the governor were referenced in an e-mail sent from Steinberg to Senate Democrats this week. In the internal e-mail, which was reviewed by Capitol Weekly, Steinberg said Schwarzenegger “even mentioned coming back this week to withdraw bills from his desk and hold them until after water is done.”

Arnold is absolutely ballsy enough to do this.  He has only signed 3 bills in the past four weeks since the Legislature adjourned September 11, and with six days to go and the Legislature not scheduled to return until after the deadline on October 11, I’m convinced of his sincerity to basically flush the entire legislative session down the toilet.

You just don’t see headlines like this in other states.  And that’s because the process here rewards blackmail.  Arnold knows that there are no repercussions for vetoing 700 bills.  There’s no media willing to call him out, there’s no possibility of a veto override because of some unwritten rule whereby that function doesn’t exist anymore, and there’s a high possibility of legislative Democrats simply capitulating to whatever shrieking Republican demands in order to appear “reasonable” or just move along the machinery of government.  Arnold’s just using good tactical sense because the system is set up to reward the most outlandish actions.   So he’ll probably get what amounts to a bailout of wealthy agribusiness interests at the expense of the environment and the working class.

This is truly the portrait of failure in California.  Right-wing interests have learned how to hijack so well you’d think they attended one of those Al Qaeda training camps where they practice on the monkey bars.  And the entire political class walks around as if this is perfectly normal.  It’s actually appalling.

If you want to drill down to why California is in crisis, it’s because we routinely see political leaders walk into the capital strapped with dynamite across their chests, only to be given the key to the city and a milkshake as a reward for such behavior.

…The Merced Sun-Star editorialized on this today, bashing the Governor for his inflexibility and willingness to toss out important bills on mortgage reform and health care for his own personal vanity, but also saying, “Lawmakers rarely reach closure on state budgets and complex, controversial policies unless they have a gun pointed at their heads.”  Yes, and that’s the PROBLEM, not a one-off sentence to be seen as an inexorable truism.

The water issues in this state are complex and often mind-boggling.  And of course, there are some people with gripes, some more legitimate than others.  It would be really nice if everybody could just sit at a table and talk honestly and openly about this, but I’m guessing that Westlands Water District doesn’t really want to sit at a table and say that they need the rest of the state to pay for the unsustainable agriculture in the western region of the Central Valley. And I really doubt that some of the construction (and even some labor) really want to say that they simply want the contracts to build a bunch of unnecessary projects.

So, barring that, you get astroturf, which really doesn’t need water. It can grow with just a bit of cash.  And, as Steve Maviglio has been pointing out, the Latino Water Coalition is just such a group.  Capitol Weekly has some juicy details of the “outraged water consumers”:

The Coalition was registered on Dec. 29 of last year by Soares. His firm, Kahn, Soares, & Conway LLP, billed lobbying clients more than $580,000 during the first six months of this year, over 80 percent of it to agricultural clients. The mailing address listed on the Coalition’s Web sites is identical to that of Soares’ firm, located on L Street across from the Capitol. (Capitol Weekly 10/1/09)

The “Coaltion” as they frequently misspell their own name on forms has hired comedian Paul Rodriguez to go around making speeches to crowds of angry people. Angry people usually bussed in, sometimes from out of state, sometimes from different regions. But boy are they angry. Angry at the Delta smelt, angry at the salmon, and angry at the fisherman for wanting their livelihoods to continue.  As for the politicians they are angry at, well that’s mostly reserved for Democrats and the mean meanies who won’t send the delta smelt to its extinction.

It works for the Republicans. The anger works, and directing the anger at the fish, and those who protect the fish, well that works too.  As Jon Stewart shows, this is really a part of a bigger scheme to simultaneously attack the environmental movement at the same time as they are attacking the president and the Central Valley Democrats.  And while I’m kind of uncomfortable standing up for a Blue Dog like Reps. Costa and Cardoza, the fact is that their records are being distorted on these issues.

But, why get real supporters, when you can simply pay some angry comic, like Paul Rodriguez, to rile up a crowd and then throw in Sean Hannity for some extra fun too?

I hope they enjoy the in-bus movie as they head back home from all the fun Latino Water Coalition rallies. I hear Baseketball is a thriller, and they use REAL astroturf on their field.