CNN’s exit poll is here.  It seems to have wildly undersampled African-Americans, who didn’t make up 1% of the vote.  But as you can see, Clinton was dominant.  She even won young people (likely because of young Latinos).  And she took women by 25 points and Latinos by more.

… thought I’d add to this by explaining some things about the Double Bubble Trouble that has led to the potential disenfranchisement of a bunch of DTS voters in LA County.

There are 700,000-some DTS voters, but they didn’t all vote in the primary.  LA County registered 46% voter turnout yesterday, and my guess is that DTS voters are less likely to come to the polls.  Let’s say 40% of them voted; that’d be 280,000 voters.  And it’s completely unclear how many of them neglected to fill out that extra bubble that said “Democratic.”

I can say this: based on the current vote count, the most likely scenario is that it will not result in changing one single solitary delegate.  Maybe if a bunch of DTS voters in CA-31 or CA-36 went for Obama it’d shift something, but it’s unlikely.

That’s not a reason not to fight for every vote, however, and there are efforts afoot to do that, and it will be done, and those votes will eventually be counted, and this will be fixed for the future, as long as we keep talking about this and keep identifying the problem.

(Xposted from www.mydesert.com, the online edition of Palm Springs’ The Desert Sun)

Well, well, well.  Proud progressive Democrats and their Independent and Republican supporters in Riverside County, and especially in the Coachella Valley, repudiated The Desert Sun endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama in the California primary by giving Sen. Hillary Clinton approximately 67% of the vote.  State-wide, Clinton appears to have won 54% of the vote while Obama has won about 39%.  Shows how relevant The Desert Sun is to the Riverside County Democratic Party, to the California Democratic Party, and to our supporters amongst the Independents and Decline to States now.

The Democrats of Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Desert Hot Springs, Indio, Coachella, La Quinta, and other Desert Cities gathered tonight in a Unity Rally at Dale’s Lost Highway to celebrate our common democratic and Democratic principles.  Fiscal responsibility, universal healthcare, education, withdrawal from the Iraq morass and occupation, economic recovery, human rights, equal rights, and more.

The Democratic Unity Rally was sponsored by Richard Oberhaus, campaign manager of the Greg Pettis for 80th Assembly District, Greg Rodriguez, activist for the Clinton for President campaign, and Rob Simmons, Palm Springs Airport Commission and activist for the Barack Obama for President campaign.  A conservative estimate of the attendance at the soiree would run about 200 given the steady to-and-fro of the enthusiastic crowd.

More below the flip…

The media took special note of the event with coverage by CBS Channel 2, Channel 3, and live coverage of NBC Channel 6 on the 11:00 News.  Of interest, The Desert Sun reporters were apparently absent.  Must have been a paparazzi sighting of Brittany or Brad and Angelina in the Desert that necessitated its attention.

Electeds in attendance included Ginny Foat, City Councilwoman in Palm Springs, Rick Hutcheson, City Councilman in Palm Springs, Greg Pettis, Mayor Pro-Temp of Cathedral City and Candidate for the 80th Assembly District to replace the termed out Bonnie Garcia (R-CA), and Paul Marchand, City Councilman of Cathedral City.  Pettis discussed the progress of his campaign and reveled in the number of community activists in attendance.  Foat discussed her admiration and support for Clinton and her pleasure at the tide of events for Clinton during the evening.  Marchand focused on the excitement in Cathedral City, especially amongst the Latino community, for the Democratic candidates, especially Clinton.  In fact, Rodriguez reported that Latinos appeared to be supporting Clinton over Obama by a 6:1 margin across the country!

In additon to Pettis, other Democratic candidates in attendance included Paul Clay, Candidate for the CA 45th Congressional District, and Dave Hunsicker, Candidate for the 45th Congressional District.  Amalia Deaztlan, manager of the Manuel Perez for the CA 80th Assembly District campaign, also attended.

Local Democratic activists who attended the Democratic Unity Rally included George Zander, Chair of the Desert Stonewall Democratic Club (DSD), Bob Silverman, Treasurer of DSD, James Reynolds, Recording Secretary of DSD, and Donald W. Grimm, Ph.D., Jono Hildner, Bob Mahlowitz, and Bill Post, members of the Steering Committee of DSD.  Silverman discussed his previous support for Rep. Dennis Kucinich for President and his present support for Clinton due to her consistent support of the LGBT community.

Zander discussed his efforts as poll watcher and some of the disarray at the Mizell Senior Center due to the overwhelming number of Democratic and Independent voters who registered their votes at the precinct(s).  Seems that the several counties were ill-prepared for the numbers of voters not only in Santa Clara County but also in Los Angeles and Riverside Counties as well.

Other local party activists attending the Unity Rally included Sandy Eldridge, Co-Chair of the Palm Springs Democratic Club (PSD), Lisa Arbaelaz, co-founder of the PSD, her friend, Armando, Ruth Debra, DSD member, her friends, Tracy Turner, Vets for Peace, Deaztlan, Campaign manager for the Manuel Perez for 80th Assembly District, and many, many more.  Eldridge articulated her excitement about and plans for PSD and the November general election.  Her theme was re the local Democratic clubs working together in order to defeat John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney and those who support the ongoing, unending trampling of the U.S. Constitution, of the U.S. economy, of the Rights of the middle class and GLBT community, and of International Law.  Kudos to Eldridge and the PSD!

Bloggers in attendance included BluePalmSpringsBoyz, Fofitti, GRodriguez, and SeekTruth from www.mydesert.com, BlueBeaumontBoyz from www.Calitics.com, and others.  Observer discussed the advantages that Clinton has over Obama regarding electability and her consistent support of the Latino and LGBT communities.  SeekTruth and Fofitti discussed their concerns about the protection of our Right to Vote and the potential for voter fraud in the Republican-controlled election machinery in Riverside County. (BluePalmSpringsBoyz, Fofitti, SeekTruth and BlueBeaumontBoyz have endorsed Pettis for the 80th Assembly District.)

Union representatives in attendance included Chuck McDaniel, IBEW Local 440 and co-chair of the Desert Hot Springs Democratic Club, Tony Aidukas, Executive Committee of the SEIU United Healthcare Workers, and Juan Carlos Sanchez, Regional Political Organizer, Political Department of SEIU United Healthcare Workers.  McDaniel and Aidukas discussed the difficulty that they had in deciding for whom to vote following former-Senator John Edwards’ withdrawal from the race for the Democratic nomination.  Aidukas reported that two days following Edwards’ withdrawal, the SEIU UHW Executive Committee endorsed Obama for President.

At least one Republican attended tonight’s Democratic Unity Rally, Roger Williams.  (No, not that Roger Williams.)  Williams, heretofore a Mitt Romney supporter, reported that he recently removed Romney’s bumper sticker from his car and tonight obtained a Clinton bumper sticker as a replacement.

Obama activists attending the Unity Rally included Ed Grubman and his wife, Simmons, Debra, and many more.  Grubman and Simmons discussed Obama’s appeal to African-American and young voters and enjoyed each report of Obama’s successful run in Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, and Utah.

Clinton activists who celebrated her wins in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and Tennesee, included Grimm, Oberhaus, Rodriguez, Bond Shands, and many, many more.  Rodriguez discussed Clinton’s appeal to women, Latinos, and the LGBT community.  As in previous caucus and primary states, women and Latinos went largely and overwhelmingly, respectively, to Clinton last night.  Rodriguez was particularly gratified by the surprising ease that Clinton had in such states as California, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and Tennesee, states that as early as (Tuesday) morning were rated as toss-ups.

The delegate totals now appear to favor Clinton over Obama in both Pledged Delegates from the Democratic primaries and caucuses and the Super Delegates with Clinton now having 825 Delegates (632 Pledged Delegates and 193 Super Delegates) and Obama with 732 Delegates (626 Pledged, 106 Super Delegates).  The Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO will have a total of 4,049 convention delegates, and 2,025 needed for the Democratic nomination.

When the results of the California primary were posted on the big screen, a massive cheer arose from the Clinton camp.  Of note, those from the Obama and Clinton camp intermingled freely and provided support to each other’s members.  Many talked about a possible Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton ticket that might be unbeatable in November.  Simmons discussed the possiblity of an Barack Obama-Mark Warner (D-VA), Barack Obama-Tim Kaine (D-VA), Barack Obama-Jim Webb (D-VA), or Barack Obama-Joe Biden (D-DE) ticket.  Rodriquez examined the possibility of a Hillary Clinton-Bill Richardson (D-NM) or Hillary Clinton-Ted Strickland (D-OH) ticket.

In any case, Democrats rallied and celebrated tonight the victories of Clinton and Obama.  Even more, Democrats and their supporters reveled in the thought that the disastrous Bush Administration is drawing to a well-deserved close, especially with Bush’s Dead-on-Arrival 2008 Budget.  How many days can you hold your breath?

I wrote this for today’s Beyond Chron.

Last night, Barack Obama accomplished what no insurgent presidential candidate has ever done: survive Super Tuesday.  The Illinois Senator did so by amassing a broad coalition of blacks, liberals and red-state Democrats – paying off dividends across the country except in California.  Hillary Clinton’s ten-point win here exceeded expectations, and such baffling returns will keep progressives guessing for days what went wrong in the Golden State.  Clinton won in part because she got a large share of support from white women and Latinos – her traditional base – as well as from Asian-Americans.  But Obama also got slaughtered in the Central Valley and other conservative parts of the state – defying the national trend, and confining his base to San Francisco and other liberal coastal counties.  The state’s electorate was also very conservative when it came to Propositions: voters approved 4 anti-labor Indian gaming compacts, sinked a measure to fund community colleges, and (while it’s good news for progressives that Prop 93 failed) kept the status quo for term limits.

“This is a rout right now,” said Calitics blogger David Dayen last night – when half the state’s returns showed Senator Obama losing by a 15-point margin.  “These are Angelides-like numbers for Barack.  Maybe you CAN’T run a ground campaign with precinct captains in California.  Maybe it’s just too big.”  While the gap has narrowed to 51-42% as more progressive precincts were counted overnight, the fact remains: Obama did well below expectations in California.

Obama won San Francisco 52-44, but he barely took progressive Bay Area counties like Alameda and Sonoma – and even lost San Mateo County by an 8-point margin.  Looking at the overall statewide numbers, Obama performed about as well as a weak liberal can be expected to do in California – making the harsh analogy to Arnold Schwarzenegger’s hapless 2006 opponent all that more appropriate.

Predictably, the media has explained that Obama lost California due to a gender gap among white women, Clinton’s 2-1 lead among Latinos, and the Asian-American vote.  While much of that is true, Obama’s last-minute outreach to the Latino community – including an endorsement from La Opinion in Los Angeles – succeeded in making significant progress.

It’s easy to conclude that Obama “lost” because of the Latino vote in California, but he had the very best people in that community mobilize voter turnout.  With Clinton’s superior name-recognition among Latinos – along with well-known leaders Antonio Villaraigosa and Dolores Huerta stumping for the establishment – Obama’s team simply faced a daunting task with very little time.  Getting to know such a large community and earning their trust can’t be turned on like a faucet, and they did the best they could.  

The real shocker is how badly Obama did in the more conservative parts of California.  He got creamed in Fresno, Tulare and Kern Counties – and Clinton’s advantage among Latinos certainly played a factor there.  But he did equally poorly in parts of the state that are politically conservative, but are overwhelmingly white.  He lost Tehama County by 20 points, Shasta County by nine points and the “Gold Country” counties of Calaveras, Placer, Amador and El Dorado.

Besides strong support among progressive Democrats, Obama has proven in this election to have crossover appeal among Republicans and independents.  It explains why he’s done so well in conservative parts of the country, and why he would be more electable than Clinton.  I saw this first-hand while campaigning for him in northern Nevada, and it’s why he racked up huge victories last night in Idaho, Kansas, and Northern Dakota.

So why did red-state voters in other parts of the country flock to Obama – while “red-county” voters in California go with Clinton?  I’m stumped – and the only theory I could give is that the Obama camp never prioritized those parts of California.  With the state’s bizarre delegate-count scheme that makes a big winning margin here practically meaningless, it was probably a wise move on their part.

It should also be considered that the California electorate this time around was actually quite conservative – despite a huge voter turnout that gave Democratic leaders bragging rights.  Besides Democratic voters picking the establishment presidential candidate, the “right-wing” position in every state Proposition prevailed.

Propositions 94-97 – the four Indian gambling initiatives – all passed by healthy margins, despite organized labor’s push to defeat them.  I couldn’t believe how much direct mail I got from the “Yes” side – they clearly had money to burn – and it worked like a charm on an electorate more focused on the presidential race.

Proposition 92 – the community college system’s attempt to remedy Governor Schwarzenegger’s holy crusade against them – went down to defeat.  While the measure had its share of progressive critics, a “yes” vote was widely perceived as being pro-education.

I was glad to see Proposition 93 – the flawed term limits measure – go down to a narrow defeat, and my boss Randy Shaw had urged progressives to reject it.  But BeyondChron was a lonely voice on the Left opposing it: the state Democratic Party made its passage a priority, and the only organized opposition came from Republicans who oppose any term limits reform whatsoever.

While Clinton’s victory in California baffled progressives who had hoped to see Obama’s surge make it to the Golden State, bear in mind that we simply had a very conservative electorate last night.  It took us by surprise because California is such a blue state – and a high voter turnout usually bodes well for progressives.  But often the state surprises us, leaving nothing for granted when the voters go to the polls.

EDITOR’S NOTE: In his spare time and outside of work hours, Paul Hogarth volunteered at the Barack Obama campaign office in San Francisco.

Obama actually had an excellent overnight.  He kept contact in several districts, won enough in CA-09 for a 4-2 split, and I don’t think CA-50 and CA-53 are worth calling yet until we see where the final votes are coming from; he’s basically in the same position he was in CA-01.  My approximations on delegates show that Clinton will win between 31 and 37 more delegates out of California.  At one point last night it looked like 50-60.  

(Those are slightly different than Caligirl’s numbers, based on late-breaking numbers for Obama.)

My initial analysis wasn’t all that off except for one key area: Clinton was able to get 3-1 splits in 8 key districts, almost all of them heavily Latino: CA-18, CA-21, CA-31 (hey, great job, Obama surrogate Xavier Becerra!), CA-32, CA-34, CA-38, CA-39 (awesome, Obama surrogate Linda Sanchez!), and CA-43.  If Obama got enough votes in those districts to keep it close, and I mean a scant 35%, he would have basically been even or down by 5-7 delegates.

Those are districts that are dominated by Spanish-language media, that are in Los Angeles and Riverside and San Bernardino and Orange counties.  They would be uniquely difficult to organize at the precinct level, and Clinton won based on paid media and name ID and connection to the Clinton policies of the past.  Clinton’s huge Asian vote probably helped as well, at least in CA-39.  I also overestimated the value of endorsers like Becerra and Linda Sanchez and Adam Schiff.  Congressmen don’t necessarily have a machine to get out votes.

I should also mention that Charlie Cook did very well.

Hillary Clinton was up by a whole lot in this race and she ended up winning by single digits (about 9.5%).  Given her early voting lead, depending on how many voted by mail she may have won by as little as 5% on Election Day.  But she took the districts where she had a natural advantage strongly.

On the Republican side, John McCain won around 49 districts, Mitt Romney 4.  Unbelievable.

UPDATE: Frank Russo notes something very important:

Of the 6.3 million ballots counted for Presidential candidates, 63% or over 4 million were cast in the Democratic primary and only 32% or 2.3 million and counting were cast in the Republican primary. Democrats and decline to state a party voters who participated in the Democratic primary far outperformed normal voting patterns in California. Democrats hold a 10 point margin in voter registration over Republicans in this state and decline to state voters account for 19% of registrations. There is a 31% spread between the Democratic primary vote here and the Republican primary vote.

That’s extremely impressive, and a good harbinger for November.  Russo also says there are as many as a million absentee votes that have yet to be counted, so these numbers could still move, which means delegates could shift as well.

…In addition, there are tens of thousands of votes caught up in the double bubble trouble, so the margin of victory could plausibly shrink to 8 or even 7.

As Brian noted below, the propositions are pretty much a done deal. 92 lost (though by a much closer margin than earlier in the night, suggesting Obama supporters went for 92), as did 93. The Indian gaming compacts all won by healthy margins.

The common factor that explains all six outcomes is the state budget deficit. It now looms over state politics like nothing else. Sure, there were reasons specific to each measure that influenced the outcome, but looked at as a whole, voters appear to have seen these ballot measures through the lens of the state’s dire fiscal situation.

Prop 92, which was seen by some as squeezing the budget to help community colleges, failed. Props 94-97, which the barrage of ads claimed (questionably) would raise $4 billion for the state, passed. And Prop 93, which would have reformed term limits and given current legislators more time in office, failed – voters seem to have held them responsible for the budget crisis.

The lesson here is that it is long past time for state legislators to help craft a permanent budget solution. A 30-year succession of one-time and short-term fixes haven’t gotten us any closer to a stable budget, or to fixing the structural revenue shortage. As a result, community colleges are now facing budget cuts without any protections, four of the state’s largest casinos now can operate without strong unionization rules, and 120 legislators are looking at an early end to their terms in office.

Add to that toll the Núñez-Schwarzenegger health care plan (which I opposed, but was still primarily a victim of the budget crisis) and the possibility of future programs getting axed, like the high speed rail bonds on the November ballot, and it should now be clear that the state budget crisis isn’t just a fiscal problem but a major political obstacle.

Term limit reform will be back. We likely haven’t seen the last battle over Indian gaming and labor rights. Public education at all levels is still hurting and growing less accessible. The health care crisis continues, and we badly need 21st century, sustainable transportation solutions. But until the state budget crisis gets a permanent solution, it’s going to be very difficult to move forward on any of that.

That is where our focus must now turn.

For those who may not know how the California Democratic delegate delegation system works, let me give a brief explanation as to how the delegates are divvied up. The 241 district delegates are proportioned by the congressional district’s vote. The 129 at-large delegates are divvied up by the statewide percentage vote, though adjustments were necessary since the sum of Clinton’s and Obama’s percentages was less than 100%. I summed up their totals (93.9%) and divided Clinton’s 52.3% and Obama’s 41.6% by the 93.9% to obtain 55.7% for Clinton and 44.3% for Obama. Then I distributed the delegates based on those percentages.

Update: I readjusted some districts as well as the statewide delegates when I found out about the 2-block system for the statewide delegates. I don’t know how PLEO delegates are distributed, so I just took Hermit9’s word and gave Clinton 71 statewide delegates and Obama 58. The raw numbers of delegates changed slightly in Obama’s favor, though Hillary still takes about 55% of the delegates.

Over the flip is the table of results based on the numbers as of 3:30 AM Pacific Standard Time. I will have one more update when all results are in.

District	Delegates	C %	C Delegates	O %	O Delegates
1	5	45.7	2	46.1	3
2	4	46.9	2	40.9	2
3	4	48.2	2	44.4	2
4	5	46.5	2	43.1	3
5	5	44.9	2	50.1	3
6	6	41.7	3	50.9	3
7	5	49.7	3	44.8	2
8	6	43.5	3	53.4	3
9	6	34.2	2	61.5	4
10	5	49.3	3	44.3	2
11	4	54.6	2	38.9	2
12	6	52.6	3	42.3	3
13	5	57.9	3	31.0	2
14	6	44.7	3	49.9	3
15	5	56.1	3	37.6	2
16	4	59.8	2	34.8	2
17	5	48.8	3	45.4	2
18	4	60.5	2	32.6	2
19	4	55.0	2	35.2	2
20	3	64.5	2	28.8	1
21	4	59.4	2	31.5	2
22	4	50.9	2	38.3	2
23	5	46.4	2	47.2	3
24	5	51.4	3	41.9	2
25	4	53.9	2	39.7	2
26	4	54.7	2	39.2	2
27	5	59.6	3	36.2	2
28	5	60.0	3	36.8	2
29	5	52.2	3	44.3	2
30	6	49.9	3	46.7	3
31	4	64.1	3	33.5	1
32	4	71.4	3	24.4	1
33	5	36.8	2	61.4	3
34	4	73.3	3	23.3	1
35	5	39.1	2	58.6	3
36	5	52.2	3	43.4	2
37	5	43.8	2	53.8	3
38	4	72.5	3	24.0	1
39	4	66.9	3	29.3	1
40	4	57.4	2	35.3	2
41	4	58.5	2	31.9	2
42	4	56.3	2	37.3	2
43	4	63.2	3	31.2	1
44	4	55.2	2	38.3	2
45	4	59.8	3	32.8	1
46	4	53.0	2	40.1	2
47	3	67.9	2	26.8	1
48	4	50.9	2	43.3	2
49	4	54.6	2	37.4	2
50	5	47.7	3	46.3	2
51	4	59.7	3	35.7	1
52	4	50.1	2	41.8	2
53	5	47.8	3	47.5	2
State	129	52.0	71	42.4	58

Based on the results so far, Clinton receives 202 delegates (71 at-large and 131 district) for about 55% of California’s 370 delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday, while Obama receives 168 (58 at-large and 110 district) for about 45%.