If Bear Stearns is too big to fail, what about the states?

Last month the Federal Reserve stepped in with $30 billion in tax payer money to bail out the failing Bear Sterns investment bank. The argument was that Bear Stearns was “too big to fail.”

As part of the deal, J.P. Morgan Chase, a major Wall Street bank, will buy Bear Stearns for a bargain-basement price, paying $2 a share for an institution that still plays a central role in executing financial transactions. Bear Stearns stock closed at $57 on Thursday and $30 on Friday. J.P. Morgan was unwilling to assume the risk of many of Bear Stearns’s mortgage and other complicated assets, so the Federal Reserve agreed to take on the risk of about $30 billion worth of those investments.

The Fed “is working to promote liquid, well-functioning financial markets, which are essential for economic growth,” Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a conference call with reporters last night. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., who was deeply involved in the talks though not a formal party to them, indicated support for the actions.

The Fed’s moves were meant to reverse a rising tide of panic that has buffeted Wall Street as banks and other institutions have found it increasingly difficult to get credit.

This report from the Center on Budget & Policy Priorities shows that the states are now being hit hard by the same hard economic times that dropped Bear Stearns:

At least twenty-seven states, including several of the nation’s largest, face budget shortfalls in fiscal year 2009. Of these 27 states, specific estimates are available for 22 states and the District of Columbia; the combined deficits of these 22 states plus the District of Columbia are expected to total at least $39 billion for fiscal 2009 — which begins July 2008 in most states. Another 3 states expect budget problems in fiscal year 2010, although some of those gaps may occur earlier than expected.


The 22 states in which revenues are expected to fall short of the amount needed to support current services in fiscal year 2009 are Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin. In addition, the District of Columbia is expecting a shortfall in fiscal year 2009. The budget gaps total $39.1 to $40.8 billion, averaging 8.9 – 9.3 percent of these states’ general fund budgets.

Two things jump out at me:

  1. The amount of U.S. taxpayer money risked to bailout Bear Sterns — $30 billion — is almost as much as what it would take to bail out the 22 states that are experiencing shortfalls this year.
  2. Bear Sterns is considered “too big to fail” because its failing threatens other big Wall Street entities. The 22 states who are sinking under mountains of debt will have to cut their spending and that will hurt millions of Americans.


As the Center on Budget & Policy report points out, those consequences will be severe:

In states facing budget gaps, the consequences could be severe — for residents as well as the economy.  Unlike the federal government, states cannot run deficits when the economy turns down; they must cut expenditures, raise taxes, or draw down reserve funds to balance their budgets.  Even if the economy does not fall into a recession as it did in the earlier part of this decade, actions will have to be taken to close the budget gaps states are now identifying.  The experience of the last recession is instructive as to what kinds of actions states may take.

  • Cuts in services like health and education.  In the last recession, some 34 states cut eligibility for public health programs, causing well over 1 million people to lose health coverage, and at least 23 states cut eligibility for child care subsidies or otherwise limited access to child care.  In addition, 34 states cut real per-pupil aid to school districts for K-12 education between 2002 and 2004, resulting in higher fees for textbooks and courses, shorter school days, fewer personnel, and reduced transportation.
  • Tax increases. Tax increases may be needed to prevent the types of service cuts described above. However, the taxes states often raise during economic downturns are regressive — that is, they fall most heavily on lower-income residents.
  • Cuts in local services or increases in local taxes. While the property tax is usually the most stable revenue source during an economic downturn, that is not the case now. If property tax revenues decline because of the bursting of the housing bubble, localities and schools will either have to get more aid from the state — a difficult proposition when states themselves are running deficits — or reduce expenditures on schools, public safety, and other services.

There’s a lot more detail on consequences of letting a majority of our states go into budget shortfall here.

Bankruptcy! Vallejo is Just the First

The city of Vallejo has been flirting with bankruptcy for for a few months now, but it looks like it will probably happen soon.  While the Mayor and other leaders continue to point the finger at public safety workers, the city looks set to pass its own deadline this week for some other resolution. The Chronicle:

Vallejo will inch closer to financial ruin Tuesday when the City Council lets pass its do-or-die date to avert bankruptcy.

City staff members have been unable to come up with a detailed, long-term financial plan because negotiations with the police and fire unions are still ongoing. The city is asking for steep concessions from the unions, whose members are among the highest paid in the Bay Area and whose salaries comprise about 74 percent of the city’s budget.

“We had hoped to have an agreement by April 22 to give to the council,” said Mayor Osby Davis, who has sat in on the negotiations. “But I’m optimistic. There’s always room for a resolution if people are willing to give and take.”

Davis, if you’ll remember, is the Mayor who lost the election, and then won the election on a recount.  In the end, I’m not sure there’s a winner at all here.  The unions allege that there’s some accounting tricks being used, while the City contends that the salaries are just killing them. The salaries are quite high due to mandatory overtime required by the city’s low staffing.

The Mayor and others want a “long-term solution”, but one will be increasingly difficult to find for Vallejo and cities across California as the budget continues to bleed. There is no solution – none at all – until California’s leaders and the Yacht Party obstructionists choose to look at the budget sheets from towns and cities across the state. Small, large, whatever. They are all feeling the pain of the last 30 years. Prop 13, the VLF cuts, everything is costing the cities money at a time when more and more is expected of them.

We can dally no longer. The governor needs to step up and admit that he was wrong on the VLF. Vallejo is just the first large city to tumble towards bankruptcy. It will certainly not be the last.

April Update: Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2008

Here is my updated legislature outlook, with the updated registration numbers of the districts where the current incumbents are term-limited. I am using a “Partisan Factor” (PF), which is the average of the margins in registration, Davis-Simon (02G), Kerry-Bush (04P), Boxer-Jones (04S), and Feinstein-Mountjoy (06S). My previous diary is here, the initial discussion we had on the legislature outlook is here, and the updated numbers are below the flip.

I am proud to announce that… (*drumroll*) …we now have a Democratic registration advantage in the 15th and 26th Assembly districts!

ASSEMBLY


Republican-Held Seats (12)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
2
Doug LaMalfa
32.05%
47.27%
R+15.22
3
Rick Keene
34.21%
41.42%
R+7.21
10
Alan Nakanishi
38.59%
40.84%
R+2.25
15
Guy Houston
39.29%
38.34%
D+0.95
26
Greg Aghazarian
41.74%
40.23%
D+1.51
34
Bill Maze
33.75%
45.87%
R+12.12
36
Sharon Runner
37.59%
41.38%
R+3.79
64
John Benoit
34.66%
43.95%
R+9.29
71
Todd Spitzer
27.58%
50.75%
R+23.17
75
George Plescia
29.80%
42.32%
R+12.52
78
Shirley Horton
42.14%
32.46%
D+9.68
80
Bonnie Garcia
46.31%
36.01%
D+10.30
District 2002G
2004P
2004S 2006S Reg. PF
2
R+30.0
R+34.1
R+23.7
R+16.7
R+15.2
R+23.9
3
R+31.5
R+14.7
R+7.3
R+0.2
R+7.2
R+12.2
10
R+16.6
R+14.0
R+0.7
D+6.2
R+2.3
R+5.5
15
R+4.5
D+0.1
D+7.8
D+22.3
D+1.0
D+5.3
26
R+5.7
R+15.6
D+1.0
D+6.3
D+1.5
R+2.5
34
R+26.1
R+33.6
R+20.9
R+12.6
R+12.1
R+21.1
36
R+26.0
R+21.9
R+5.7
D+5.4
R+3.8
R+10.4
64
R+15.3
R+16.6
R+1.6
D+0.7
R+9.3
R+8.4
71
R+33.6
R+30.2
R+19.4
R+14.4
R+23.2
R+24.2
75
R+19.8
R+12.7
R+0.2
D+5.6
R+12.5
R+7.9
78
D+2.4
D+3.2
D+20.4
D+24.2
D+9.7
D+12.0
80
D+8.6
D+5.2
D+19.3
D+22.4
D+10.3
D+13.2


Democratic-Held Seats (11)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
1
Patty Berg
45.60%
27.87%
D+17.73
8
Lois Wolk
46.83%
28.96%
D+17.87
13
Mark Leno
57.75%
9.00%
D+48.75
14
Loni Hancock
60.21%
14.37%
D+45.84
19
Gene Mullin
50.77%
21.86%
D+28.91
22
Sally Lieber
44.32%
23.35%
D+20.97
27
John Laird
48.95%
25.81%
D+23.14
30
Nicole Parra
46.74%
37.88%
D+8.86
40
Lloyd Levine
48.42%
27.43%
D+20.99
46
Fabian Núñez
65.10%
11.33%
D+53.77
52
Mervyn Dymally
69.36%
11.09%
D+58.27
District 2002G
2004P
2004S 2006S Reg. PF
1
D+10.3
D+22.4
D+26.5
D+32.5
D+17.7
D+21.9
8
D+8.8
D+12.5
D+22.8
D+28.8
D+17.9
D+18.2
13
D+53.3
D+72.2
D+73.5
D+72.9
D+48.8
D+64.1
14
D+43.9
D+62.8
D+61.7
D+65.6
D+45.8
D+56.0
19
D+28.4
D+39.8
D+44.8
D+54.4
D+28.9
D+39.3
22
D+26.4
D+36.1
D+40.7
D+48.5
D+21.0
D+34.5
27
D+20.4
D+35.0
D+36.0
D+43.8
D+23.1
D+31.7
30
R+2.6
R+14.7
D+3.8
D+12.9
D+8.9
D+1.7
40
D+11.6
D+21.9
D+35.3
D+33.7
D+21.0
D+24.7
46
D+60.8
D+62.7
D+72.3
D+72.3
D+53.8
D+64.4
52
D+70.0
D+73.5
D+79.4
D+79.9
D+58.3
D+72.2


SENATE


Republican-Held Seats (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
19
Tom McClintock
37.40%
39.71%
R+2.31
29
Bob Margett
32.85%
43.77%
R+10.92
33
Dick Ackerman
27.88%
49.70%
R+21.82
37
Jim Battin
35.87%
43.46%
R+7.59
District 2002G
2004P
2004S 2006S Reg. PF
19
R+7.0
R+2.0
D+7.6
D+10.6
R+2.3
D+1.4
29
R+19.9
R+15.2
R+1.7
R+2.2
R+10.9
R+10.0
33
R+31.4
R+27.2
R+14.9
R+11.6
R+21.8
R+21.4
37
R+13.4
R+16.6
R+0.9
D+2.2
R+7.6
R+7.3


Democratic-Held Seats (6)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
5
Michael Machado
46.96%
31.71%
D+15.25
7
Tom Torlakson
47.73%
29.62%
D+18.11
9
Don Perata
60.70%
12.96%
D+47.74
21
Jack Scott
46.47%
27.85%
D+18.62
23
Sheila Kuehl
50.88%
24.81%
D+26.07
25
Edward Vincent
59.96%
19.58%
D+40.38
District 2002G
2004P
2004S 2006S Reg. PF
5
D+7.7
D+8.4
D+22.2
D+27.6
D+15.3
D+16.2
7
D+14.5
D+22.8
D+27.2
D+39.6
D+18.1
D+24.4
9
D+48.2
D+63.6
D+64.5
D+66.6
D+47.7
D+58.1
21
D+15.0
D+27.8
D+35.9
D+37.0
D+18.6
D+26.9
23
D+22.6
D+31.1
D+40.8
D+45.9
D+26.1
D+33.3
25
D+38.7
D+45.7
D+52.9
D+53.6
D+40.4
D+46.3



Now here is a list of the districts with the most competitive PF’s, ranked from highest to lowest priority.

Assembly

District PF
80
D+13.2
78
D+12.0
30
D+1.7
26
R+2.5
10
R+5.3
64
R+7.9
75
R+8.4

Senate

District PF
19
D+1.4