Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Swing State Project doesn’t think some of our races are going anywhere.  And it’s with two candidates that are beloved by the netroots.

CA-26 (Dreier): Likely Republican to Safe Republican

It’s time to separate the wheat from the chaff, so to speak. We held out hope for quite a while that Democrat Russ Warner would be able to make a race in this R+4 district — one of the very few plausible targets for Democrats in California — but this contest has never really climbed that far up the heat index. Despite running his campaign for over a year and a half, Warner has only been able to cobble together $651K and ended the second quarter with just $150K in the bank.

Incumbent GOP Rep. David Dreier bucked the nationwide trend in 2006 by spending some serious cash ($2.5 million) and scoring a 57-38 win over his unknown opponent — a significant improvement over his 53-43 margin in 2004. Dreier had $1.9 million on hand at the end of July — well more than he’ll need in order to swamp out Warner’s message this fall. Based on the nationwide dynamics, it’s not hard to imagine Warner climbing to as high as the mid-40s on election day, but it’s pretty tough to imagine him hitting 50% on his budget, barring some fabulous divine intervention.

CA-46 (Rohrabacher): Likely Republican to Safe Republican

I’m sorry to say it, but here’s the Swing State Project’s new Mendoza Line of the Swing: If you aren’t even listed on the DCCC’s Races to Watch list alongside the likes of Rob Hubler (IA-05) and Steve O’Donnell (PA-18), what chance do you really have? Many Dems started the cycle with high hopes for Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook. Like they used to say in Brooklyn, wait ’till next year!

Sigh.  🙁  As Rachel Maddow says, someone needs to talk me down on this.

It’s hard to get a handle on the efforts of the Yes on 8 people because they’re so haphazard.  They vow to produce a million yard signs but then get delayed because the signs are “in route” from China.  They try to make their campaign seem to be about ordinary couples who want their traditional aw-shucks marriage, and then the virulence of their intolerance is revealed, over…

I am a Mormon High Priest.  My bishop is a long-time family friend, and he has come to see me a couple of times recently, but each time he has come by assignment of his church supervisor.  On the first visit, my bishop offered me a chance to resign my membership in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.  When I declined, he told me a church disciplinary council would be held.  On the second visit, just a couple of days ago, he brought me a letter informing me that I am charged with conduct unbecoming a member of the Mormon Church, and being “in apostasy.”

…and over again…

Turns out the aptly-named “Church of the Divide” in faraway Placerville had sent a group of hate-mongering protesters to the church where (Sacramento mayoral candidate Kevin Johnson) and his family worships, complete with signs blaring “SODOMY” (and worse), to protest Kevin’s decision to oppose Prop 8. They also flew in Rev. Jesse Lee Peterson from Los Angeles as their Rent-A-Hack.

What has become cleear is this: the Yes on 8 movement is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the fundamentalist right, an alliance of various religious sects who are coming together to try and impose their will on the people of California.  They’ve certainly been successful financially, outraising the no side to this point.  To be sure, there are liberal religious leaders coming out against this measure, like the California Faith for Equality coalition.  But the level of participation by many groups, particularly the Church of Latter-Day Saints, is profoundly unsettling:

Members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints have contributed more than a third of the approximately $15.4 million raised since June 1 to support Proposition 8. The ballot initiative, if passed, would reverse the current right of same-sex couples to marry […]

The top leadership of the Mormon Church, known as the First Presidency, issued a letter in June calling on Mormons to “do all you can” to support Proposition 8.

Mormon donors said they weren’t coerced. “Nobody twisted my arm,” said Richard Piquet, a Southern California accountant who gave $25,000 in support of Proposition 8. He said Mormon Church leaders called donating “a matter of personal conscience.” Some Mormons who declined to donate said their local church leaders had made highly charged appeals, such as saying that their souls would be in jeopardy if they didn’t give. Church spokesmen said any such incident wouldn’t reflect Mormon Church policy […]

The prominence of Mormon donors in the Proposition 8 fight has also led to alliances with evangelical Protestant groups and other Christian religions, some of which have deep theological differences with Mormons.

Jim Garlow, pastor of the evangelical Protestant Skyline Church near San Diego and a leading supporter of Proposition 8, said, “I would not, in all candor, have been meeting them or talking with them had it not been for” the marriage campaign. Rev. Garlow said he had developed a “friendship” with the Mormons he met, although he feels the theological differences remain “unbridgeable.”

Certainly there is a broader movement among the religious spectrum beyond just the Mormons; the Family Research Council is heavily invested in the measure, and is spreading lies about the consequences of same-sex marriage to their members (Christians will be jailed!!!).  But what is going to be the focus of their efforts to get out the vote and pass the proposition?  Apparently, fasting and praying (I don’t buy the 100,000 figure below, by the way, it sounds like more bluster):

Hundreds of pastors have called on their congregations to fast and pray for passage of a ballot measure in November that would put an end to gay marriage in California.

The collective act of piety, starting Wednesday and culminating three days before the election in a revival for as many as 100,000 people at the San Diego Chargers’ stadium, comes as church leaders across California put people, money and powerful words behind Proposition 8.

Some pastors around the state and nation are encouraging their flocks to forgo solid food for up to 40 days in the biblical tradition.

Well, not quite.  In a remarkable catch by skippy, this 40-day fasting period, scheduled to begin today, would be somewhat unusual.

the gathering, called the call, will conclude a 40-day fasting period for california that begins sept. 24. christians are being asked to fast in some way, either the entire 40 days or perhaps by using team relays to cover the entire 40 days. running parallel to the 40-day fast is a 100-day prayer effort, which was scheduled to start july 28.

Um… team relays?

Let me get this straight.  If I last from lunch to dinner without a morsel, then tag off to my partner in prayer, I can go ahead and eat dinner then?  Is that really a fast, or is it, I don’t know… just not snacking?

Well, the religious right can’t be the only ones to get in on this fun.  That’s why, starting today, I am calling on every liberal and progressive to take part in a counter-fast for equality.  The goal is to get enough people involved that we only have to chip in about 15 minutes or so of fasting apiece.  I’m blocking out September 29, 4:30-4:45.  I’m not eating a thing.  We’re talking commitment!!!

More on this tomorrow. For now, sign up in the comments with your fasting interval.  Together, we can show these guys what a fasting relay team is all about!

I will be on KRXA 540 AM at 8 this morning to discuss this and other California politics issues

One of the defining features of capitalism in the 21st century has been the arrogance of its most wealthy practitioners, now manifested by their belief that they’ll be bailed out and not forced to suffer any consequence for their criminally reckless bad judgment.

So it’s not just coincidence that as the financial robber barons of our time are demanding a massively unpopular bailout, another wealthy baron who made his money at the expense of Americans is seeking a bailout from California voters this November.

T. Boone Pickens is worth about $3 billion, a fortune amassed from his years as a corporate raider during the 1980s and his large stake in oil companies like ExxonMobil and Occidental.

Along the way he became a leading funder of right-wing causes, and was the primary backer of the notorious Swift Boat veterans, whose lie-filled ad against John Kerry helped swing the 2004 election to Bush. T. Boone promised he’d pay $1 million to anyone who could disprove the allegations, but reneged when John Kerry himself took him up on the offer.

T. Boone is seeing the handwriting on the wall for the oil economy, and wants to build up his natural gas business. Problem is, he wants to build up that business at our expense. He put Proposition 10 on the ballot and is spending his own money to run ads for it. Essentially he wants California taxpayers to bail him out to the tune of $5 billion.

The LA Times last week editorialized against Prop 10, explaining it and why it is such a bad idea. They call it a “reprehensible scam“:

This measure asks taxpayers to fund $5 billion in bonds — at a time when the state is in desperate financial straits and may be approaching a dangerous level of indebtedness — for a scheme disguised as an effort to benefit the environment. Yet its true aim is to subsidize vehicles powered by natural gas, which would build a customer base for its sponsor: Clean Energy Fuels Corp., a company Pickens co-founded that operates natural gas filling stations throughout the U.S. and Canada.

The measure generously doles out taxpayer money for a variety of green-sounding initiatives: $200 million for alternative energy demonstration projects at eight California cities, none of which are clamoring to perform them; $1.5 billion in grants and incentives for research and development of clean energy technologies and alternative fuel vehicles, a field that venture capitalists are already shoveling cash into; $250 million for renewable energy generation equipment. But the lion’s share of the bond money, $2.875 billion worth, goes for rebates on purchases of alternative fuel vehicles.

The rebates are structured so that only a small amount of money goes to truly environmentally beneficial vehicles, while most would subsidize those that run on natural gas.

The American public rightly opposes the Bush Bailout for Wall Street crooks. Why should Californians support a bailout for an already-wealthy oilman, one responsible for some of the most disgusting political lies of our time?

 Greetings from Oroville !

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680_2  Charlie Brown , Mayor Jernigan, Mrs Jernigan

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Saturday, September 20, 2008, at the Veterans Hall in Oroville, CA.  Left to right, Mrs. Jernigan, Mayor Steve Jernigan of Oroville, Charlie Brown, candidate for Congress in CA’s 4th district, and a volunteer for the Town Hall and BBQ  event.  

There’s lots more pictures and news of upcoming Charlie Brown events, if you’ll continue with me over the fold:

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650  Serving BBQ Lunch,



Volunteers from Oroville and Charlie Brown serve Lunch at the Town Hall on Sept 20, 2008

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658_2   Mayor Jernigan of Oroville



Mayor Steve Jernigan of Oroville Speaks to the Town Hall, and Introduces Charlie Brown  

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669_2  Charlie Brown talks to Oroville



Charlie Brown talks to citizens at the Oroville Town Hall on Sept 20  

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668  Crowd listens and asks



Some of the attendees listening to questions being asked

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667  Man asking Q



Asking about Presidential signing statements  

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0684  Friends & Vets



Friends and Vets, Oroville, Sept 20  

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686_2  The Volunteer Cooks, @ Oroville, & Charlie Brown



The Volunteer Cooks & Charlie Brown  

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This was a fun event, and I am looking forward to more of them and hoping to see more CA- 04 people at them!   There was a BBQ lunch, grilled  tri – tip,  potato salad, beans,  made and served by the great people in the last photo, and then Mayor Jernigan, “the most popular person in Oroville,” as one person called him, spoke for a bit and introduced congressional candidate Charlie Brown.   Charlie spoke and then took questions from the crowd.

 Oroville is a lakeside community about an hour and a half north of Sacramento, in Butte County, with a city population of about 14,000, and a combined city/suburban/summer area population of about 55,000.  There are a lot of retirees because it’s an easier pace than The Big City.  The most distinguishing feature of Oroville, besides the big Dam & Reservoir,  is the big Table Mountain Ridge which flanks the northern part of town and lets you know that you’re in foothills Gold Country, for Oroville was founded during the Gold Rush.  Oroville also does what has to be the the most spectacular Northern CA 4 of July fireworks show over the Lake every year that draws such a huge crowd, that they run shuttle buses from town to the lake, and it’s a big lake .  So Oroville, which also has Feather Falls Casino, depends on tourism for a lot of its revenues, and when the economy has a downturn, and people don’t travel as much, they are sensitive to that aspect of it.   The people attending the Town Hall  were also talking and asking a wide range of questions about the future course of our country and how do we encourage local jobs growth for the younger generation.  They can tell, that the things that happened in Washington DC over the course of the last 7+ years, and that the course the current administration had set the country on,  had not taken into account the long term effects upon their neighbors and friends’ everyday lives.

One of the questions I didn’t expect but was really glad to hear was “How do we stop the other guy (McClintock)  from Swiftboating you?”

You see how that works?  Open Democracy is Empowering.  It was “how do we” do something,  not  “which consultant do we send a check to  ?”

There was such a contrast to the other candidate running for congress in the same district it was mind boggling.

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NEXT UP:  41 DAYS TO CHANGE

•Charlie Brown will be holding another Family BBQ and Town Hall Meeting in South Lake Tahoe next Saturday, September 27 th.

WHO: Congressional candidate Charlie Brown

WHAT: BBQ and Town Hall meeting

WHERE: Bijou Park, 1099 Al Tahoe Blvd, South Lake Tahoe, CA 96150

WHEN: Saturday, September 27, 2008, time:   12pm-3pm  

http://www.charliebrownforcong…

•PLUS, NEXT SATURDAY IS ANOTHER DISTRICT WIDE, CA- 04   DAY OF ACTION !  

DISTRICT WIDE DAY OF ACTION SATURDAY 9/27 08

Time:    10 am to 2 pm    Place: Roseville , Grass Valley, Quincy, Placerville,  Truckee,  Auburn,   South Lake Tahoe,  all have district offices and will be doing canvassing and phone banking

•EARLY OCTOBER,  MARK YOUR CALENDERS AND GET READY TO RUMBLE !  DEBATE !

  THE FIRST CA- 04 DEBATE:    CHARLIE BROWN DEBATES TOM MCCLINTOCK IN OROVILLE  THURSDAY OCT  2 , 2008 , 8:00pm   to 9:00pm  

Charlie Brown Debates Tom McClintock in Oroville

Thursday October 2, 2008 | 8:00 PM – 9:00 PM

The League of Women Voters of Butte County, along with the Chico Enterprise-Record and the Oroville Mercury-Register, are co-sponsoring a televised voters forum at the Southside Community Center in Oroville. For more details, please visit ChicoER.com or OrovilleMR.com.

I was hoping the League of Women Voters of Butte County would have this event listed on their calender page, but I would keep checking back until they update it:  

 http://www.lwvbuttecounty.org/      League of Women Voters of Butte County     1 530  895  VOTE

NOTE TO PEOPLE USING MAPQUEST and GOOGLE TO FIND THINGS:  THERE ARE 2 COMMUNITY CENTERS LISTED FOR OROVILLE, and they’re NOT the same thing. One’s in the north part of town and the other is in the south part of town.   Please confirm location before attempting navigation.  (Don’t ask me how I know this, but the people at the south one are super about giving directions …..)    The Chico Enterprise Record does not have this listed on their events calender yet.

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and on a final note:

It’s SEPTEMBER 24 !  Less than  one week to the Sept 30  FEC  3rd Quarter donation deadline ,    41 DAYS TO CHANGE , where we can  SEND  MC DOLITTLE DUCK – the real  – issues back to Ventura County !    

Ya wanna see what he did recently?  click on my name and read those previous 2  diaries, he doesn’t rate any exposure here.  No Show Tom, Fake Schedule, Swiftboating, & Keystone Kops

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

McClintock, Ron Rogers, Kevin Ring, and THAT swiftboat ad     http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

Ya wanna see what it looked like the last time I saw a Republican congressional candidate in Oroville, during the pre- Primary?  Click here, scroll down to the middle, and enjoy the “bonus humor photos” of Doug Ose’s crew riding around on oil barrels in front of a moving van (Ose’s family is in the mini storage busines, so home foreclosures and people moving works out very well for them )

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

By the way, Republican Doug Ose formally endorsed Tom McClintock.  thank you.  Doug Ose, on the night he lost the Republican Primary,  on teevee “well, I guess I’ll just go back to earning more money.”  You said it, Mr. Multimillionaire Self Funding Carpetbagger Candidate Developer who took Abramoff Money.

Why does the 3rd Quarter FEC deadline matter? Because the candidates then have to file the reports online, and it’s possible to see the true financial support levels of each candidate.  And that influences financial supporters in the last quarter. They want to see the candidate can win.  Charlie Brown has thousands of supporters, and is getting individual donations from inside the district.    McClintock on the last filing had just around 800 individual donations.  Yes. ONLY 819 people, and many of these were duplicates from the same business entity using multiple names of family members, or from other Republican candidates that had already dropped out.   And the majority of them were from out of district. A great deal of them were from Southern CA.   I went thru the entire list  and I counted it.  McClintock has no money, going down the home stretch (shockingly little, around a hundred thousand)  unless he sells his soul at this point to some nefarious Bush administration supporter trying to curry future favors.  

Charlie Brown lives, raised a family, and worked in the district, and wants to represent the people living here now in 4.   To McClintock, who resides in Lungren’s district 3 but represented yet another in the state senate legislature so as to collect the tax free per diem,  it’s just another mailing address.

Charlie Brown’s contributions page link:       https://www.charliebrownforcon…

Actblue link:    http://www.actblue.com/entity/…

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photos by diary author.  grateful for assistance provided by diary spouse that day

cross post at dailykos and progressive blue