Picking up on a diary from 2006 about tracking competitive districts, I continued the tracking for the 2008 and 2010 elections. With the new district data, I can start the “Outlook” series for 2012.
In 2008 I tried a “Partisan Factor” (PF), inspired by a comment in the aforementioned diary, in which I averaged the margins in registration, 2002-Gov., 2004-Pres., 2004-Sen., and 2006-Sen. In 2010 I used just the registration and the 2008 presidential numbers. For 2012 I will try a new “Partisan Factor” using the registration margin, 2008-Pres., 2010-Sen., and 2010-Gov, with different weights.
Also, for the 2008 and 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Obama won 56.3-43.7, Fiorina won 51-49, and Brown won 53.8-46.2.
Here is the lowdown on these districts.
U.S. House
| District | “Incumbent” | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Pres. | 2010 Sen. | 2010 Gov. | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State Senate (odd-numbered districts)
| District | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2010 Sen. | 2010 Gov. | 2008 Pres. | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State Assembly
| District | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2010 Sen. | 2010 Gov. | 2008 Pres. | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
If (and this is a big if) the races go according to the Partisan Factors, then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:
U.S. House: 35 DEM, 18 GOP
Safe DEM (26): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 43, 44, 51, 53
Safe GOP (14): 1, 4, 8, 10, 22, 23, 25, 39, 40, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50
State Senate: 27 DEM, 13 GOP
Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35
Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37
Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP
State Assembly: 50 DEM, 30 GOP
Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 78, 79, 80
Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 21, 23, 26, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 55, 60, 65, 66, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77
Thank you for keeping up with this.
Lot of number crunching for this early in the year 🙂
I’m curious though, how do you decide a “safe” district? What registration margin do you consider safe and why?
Which brings up my other question: what about DTS or other registration? My understanding is that almost 30% of the state’s voters aren’t registered with the GOP or Democrats. Is that why you need to factor in the election results? Are they sometimes different than the registration figures? If so, do you attribute that to DTS voters?