Tag Archives: CA-09

Outlook for California districts in 2012 – Post-Convention Edition

I know it’s been a month since the conventions, but I have been very busy in that time.

Here are the updated districts in my “Outlook” series. From my formula predictions on all states’ elections, which I will show later, I determined which congressional districts were competitive and added the 10th congressional district and also the 78th Assembly district to the list.

My predictions for all California races, Congress and state legislature, will also come soon.

U.S. House

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
CA-03
R+3.4
D+2.8
R+6.3
R+3.0
R+2.5
CA-07
R+8.4
R+0.9
R+9
R+4.1
R+5.6
CA-09
R+2.8
D+4.3
R+3.8
R+2.2
R+1.1
CA-10
R+8.5
R+3.8
R+12.3
R+9.6
R+8.6
CA-16
D+0.3
D+5.2
R+7.2
R+2.6
R+1.1
CA-21
R+0.2
R+0.7
R+11.1
R+4.8
R+4.2
CA-24
R+7.3
D+4.3
R+6
R+6.5
R+3.9
CA-26
R+6.0
D+4.0
R+6.3
R+7.3
R+3.9
CA-36
R+9.7
R+2.1
R+10.2
R+10.2
R+8.1
CA-41
R+6.9
D+5.9
R+1.6
R+0.3
R+0.7
CA-47
R+1.0
D+6.3
R+0.3
R+1.5
D+0.6
CA-52
R+11.2
D+2.5
R+9.2
R+11.0
R+7.2

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
SD-05
R+8.0
D+0.6
R+8.8
R+6.0
R+7.0
SD-19
R+1.6
D+7.9
R+2.2
R+3.4
D+0.2
SD-27
R+5.4
D+4.7
R+5.7
R+7.2
R+3.4
SD-31
R+6.2
D+3.8
R+5.4
R+4.0
R+3.7
SD-39
R+3.8
D+8.6
R+2.0
R+3.8
R+0.3

State Assembly

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
AD-08
R+6.3
EVEN
R+7.9
R+3.0
R+4.3
AD-16
R+4.9
D+8.3
R+2.8
R+3.9
R+0.8
AD-21
R+2.4
D+2.2
R+8.9
R+5.7
R+3.7
AD-32
D+3.4
D+0.3
R+9.6
R+11.1
R+4.3
AD-40
R+9.2
D+0.2
R+8.4
R+6.3
R+5.9
AD-44
R+8.4
D+2.5
R+8.2
R+9.5
R+5.9
AD-60
R+13.2
R+1.1
R+10.7
R+9.2
R+8.6
AD-61
R+5.6
D+8.7
R+0.1
D+1.1
D+1.0
AD-65
R+9.6
R+1.9
R+10.6
R+11.2
R+8.3
AD-66
R+5.9
D+2.8
R+6.4
R+7.5
R+4.3
AD-78
D+0.8
D+12.0
D+3.4
D+1.4
D+4.4

Analysis of 2012 California U.S. House Races

Now that the primary dust is settled and I have some time, I can present my analysis of the California districts this year. With top-two, we have some more interesting races to watch. With the lack of a write-in option in the November elections, I came up with a new safer-than-safe rating, “Guaranteed”. The outcomes will not be different from the “Safe” races, but I like having them separated, because some of the “Guaranteed” races will be interesting to watch.

California’s 1st congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Northeastern corner of the state (Redding, Chico)

November ballot: Doug LaMalfa (R) vs. Jim Reed (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-31

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-37

President 2008: McCain 53-42

California’s 2nd congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: North Coast north of San Francisco (Eureka, Petaluma)

November ballot: Jared Huffman (D) vs. Dan Roberts (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 62-29

Governor 2010: Brown 64-30

President 2008: Obama 71-25

California’s 3rd congressional district: LEAN DEM

Geography: Solano County and Southern Sacramento Valley (Davis, Fairfield, Yuba City)

November ballot: John Garamendi (D-inc) vs. Kim Vann (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 46-45

Governor 2010: Brown 50-43

President 2008: Obama 55-42

Description: Garamendi underperformed the previous incumbent Ellen Tauscher in both the 2009 special and the 2010 general in the old district, which was more Democratic than this one. Colusa County Supervisor Vann is also a serious candidate, having more cash-on-hand than Garamendi ($169K – $132K), though Garamendi spent more than 3.5 times as much as Vann ($895K – $244K).

California’s 4th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Placer County, eastern Central Valley

November ballot: Tom McClintock (R-inc) vs. Jack Uppal (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 59-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-38

President 2008: McCain 54-43

California’s 5th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Napa Valley

November ballot: Mike Thompson (D-inc) vs. Randy Loftin (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-30

Governor 2010: Brown 63-31

President 2008: Obama 70-27

California’s 6th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Sacramento, West Sacramento

November ballot: Doris Matsui (D-inc) vs. Joseph McCray (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 59-32

Governor 2010: Brown 66-28

President 2008: Obama 68-29

California’s 7th congressional district: LEAN GOP

Geography: Eastern Sacramento suburbs (Elk Grove, Rancho Cordova, Citrus Heights)

November ballot: Dan Lungren (R-inc) vs. Ami Bera (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-42

Governor 2010: Brown 49-44

President 2008: Obama 51-46

Description: This will probably be the race to watch in California’s congressional delegation. Lungren won a hard-fought race the last two cycles, and in 2010 Democrats picked up a State Assembly seat in this area, one of the few Democratic pickups that year. The district became slightly more Democratic, going from Obama by 0.5% to Obama by 5%. However, Lungren beat Bera by 12 points in June, so he has a small advantage.

California’s 8th congressional district: GUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Sierras and most of San Bernardino County

November ballot: Paul Cook (R) vs. Gregg Imus (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-36

President 2008: McCain 55-42

California’s 9th congressional district: LEAN DEM

Geography: San Joaquin County (Stockton, Lodi) and eastern Contra Costa County (Antioch)

November ballot: Jerry McNerney (D-inc) vs. Ricky Gill (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 47-44

Governor 2010: Brown 51-42

President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: Republicans landed a top recruit in Gill to face McNerney, who has had a history of tough races. This district became slightly more Democratic than the old one, voting for Boxer and Brown. Gill could use McNerney’s recent move to Stockton from Pleasanton in the Bay Area to his advantage, and has argued that McNerney has not been an effective San Joaquin County representative. This will be a race to watch, though due to this district being slightly more Democratic than the old CA-11, I give McNerney a small edge.

California’s 10th congressional district: LIKELY GOP

Geography: Stanislaus County and southwestern San Joaquin County

November ballot: Jeff Denham (R-inc) vs. Jose Hernandez (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 52-39

Governor 2010: Whitman 49-44

President 2008: Obama 50-47

Description: Denham’s weak performance in June was surprising, considering his history of big margins in similar districts, though that may be due to nonpartisan candidate Chad Condit (son of former conservative Democrat congressman Gary Condit).

California’s 11th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Contra Costa County (Richmond, Walnut Creek, Concord)

November ballot: George Miller (D-inc) vs. Virginia Fuller (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 60-34

Governor 2010: Brown 61-34

President 2008: Obama 69-28

California’s 12th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: San Francisco

November ballot: Nancy Pelosi (D-inc) vs. John Dennis (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 76-14

Governor 2010: Brown 78-16

President 2008: Obama 84-13

California’s 13th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Berkeley, Oakland

November ballot: Barbara Lee (D-inc) vs. Marilyn Singleton (NPP)

Senate 2010: Boxer 83-11

Governor 2010: Brown 84-11

President 2008: Obama 87-10

California’s 14th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: South San Francisco, Daly City, San Mateo, Redwood City

November ballot: Jackie Speier (D-inc) vs. Debbie Bacigalupi (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-27

Governor 2010: Brown 66-28

President 2008: Obama 73-24

California’s 15th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Southern East Bay (Hayward, Livermore, San Ramon)

November ballot: Pete Stark (D-inc) vs. Eric Swalwell (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 59-34

Governor 2010: Brown 59-35

President 2008: Obama 67-30

Description: For once, we have a race to watch in a safe district, with delegation dean Stark against fellow Democrat Swalwell. Stark has had a series of gaffes, and Swalwell gained the endorsements of the San Francisco Chronicle and Bay Area Newsgroup. Swalwell also hails from a part of the district that is new to Stark, the Tri-Valley area. Will term 20 be Stark’s last term?

California’s 16th congressional district: LIKELY DEM

Geography: Fresno, Madera, Merced

November ballot: Jim Costa (D-inc) vs. Brian Whelan (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-43

Governor 2010: Brown 50-42

President 2008: Obama 57-40

Description: Costa traded the Kern and Kings portions of his old district for Madera and Merced. He should be fine if he takes the race seriously, unlike last time.

California’s 17th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Silicon Valley (Fremont, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale)

November ballot: Mike Honda (D-inc) vs. Evelyn Li (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 63-29

Governor 2010: Brown 61-34

President 2008: Obama 69-28

California’s 18th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Silicon Valley (Menlo Park, Palo Alto, San Jose)

November ballot: Anna Eshoo (D-inc) vs. David Chapman (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-32

Governor 2010: Brown 60-35

President 2008: Obama 70-27

California’s 19th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: San Jose

November ballot: Zoe Lofgren (D-inc) vs. Robert Murray (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-31

Governor 2010: Brown 60-25

President 2008: Obama 70-27

California’s 20th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Northern Central Coast (Monterey, Salinas, Santa Cruz)

November ballot: Sam Farr (D-inc) vs. Jeff Taylor (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-31

Governor 2010: Brown 63-31

President 2008: Obama 71-26

California’s 21st congressional district: LIKELY GOP

Geography: Southern Central Valley (Hanford, Bakersfield)

November ballot: John Hernandez (D) vs. David Valadao (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-40

Governor 2010: Brown 48-44

President 2008: Obama 52-46

Description: With the Democrats’ two best candidates, Michael Rubio and Dean Florez, not running and Valadao winning a majority of the vote in the first round, this district is very likely to go Republican.

California’s 22nd congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Fresno, Visalia

November ballot: Devin Nunes (R-inc) vs. Otto Lee (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 63-30

Governor 2010: Whitman 59-35

President 2008: McCain 55-42

California’s 23rd congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Kern County (Bakersfield)

November ballot: Kevin McCarthy (R-inc) vs. Terry Phillips (NPP)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 64-26

Governor 2010: Whitman 58-33

President 2008: McCain 61-36

California’s 24th congressional district: LEAN DEM

Geography: San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties

November ballot: Lois Capps (D-inc) vs. Abel Maldonado (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 46-45

Governor 2010: Brown 47-46

President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: This was probably the toughest race for me to rate, between lean Dem and toss-up. Capps gets back her old district from the 90s that was marginal (including voting for Bob Dole in 1996) and that she won close races in. Capps is more entrenched now than she was in the 90s, but I don’t think she is used to serious campaigning after five non-competitive races. In addition, Maldonado represented this area in the state legislature, though he is not liked by the party base and could be hammered on taxes. I decided to give Capps a few more points due to being entrenched, though this race could become a toss-up again if there are any new developments.

California’s 25th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Simi Valley

November ballot: Buck McKeon (R-inc) vs. Lee Rogers (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-39

President 2008: Obama 49-48

California’s 26th congressional district: TOSS-UP

Geography: Ventura County (Oxnard, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks)

November ballot: Julia Brownley (D) vs. Tony Strickland (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-45

Governor 2010: Whitman 47-46

President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: Democrats suffered a setback when County Supervisor Steve Bennett dropped out in February and recruited Assemblywoman Brownley. A Santa Monica-area rep would be an awkward fit for a Ventura County district, but Strickland has had many close races himself. It is unknown who the supporters of nonpartisan candidate Linda Parks will go to in November.

California’s 27th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Pasadena, Monterey Park, Alhambra

November ballot: Judy Chu (D-inc) vs. Jack Orswell (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-39

Governor 2010: Brown 55-39

President 2008: Obama 61-36

California’s 28th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Glendale, Burbank

November ballot: Adam Schiff (D-inc) vs. Phil Jennerjahn (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 63-30

Governor 2010: Brown 63-30

President 2008: Obama 70-26

California’s 29th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Eastern San Fernando Valley

November ballot: Tony Cardenas (D) vs. David Hernandez (NPP)

Senate 2010: Boxer 67-24

Governor 2010: Brown 68-24

President 2008: Obama 74-23

California’s 30th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Western San Fernando Valley

November ballot: Howard Berman (D-inc) vs. Brad Sherman (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-35

Governor 2010: Brown 57-36

President 2008: Obama 66-31

Description: This is the same-party race to watch, a clash of the titans if you will. Berman has the Hollywood establishment, while Sherman has more local endorsements, as well as Bill Clinton. Sherman has also been more visible in the area, and got more votes than Berman in June. As far as Republican/conservative outreach goes, Berman has the support of former mayor Richard Riordan, DA Steve Cooley, and county supervisor Mike Antonovich, while CPA and former Board of Equalization (the state’s tax board) member Sherman voted against TARP in 2008.

California’s 31st congressional district: GUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Redlands

November ballot: Bob Dutton (R) vs. Gary Miller (R-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 46-44

Governor 2010: Brown 49-41

President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: This is the only race where top-two cost a party a chance at a pickup. I hope this missed opportunity teaches Democrats a lesson to be more disciplined when it comes to candidates. As far as November goes, the combination of familiarity among locals and no scandals should give Dutton a comfortable edge.

California’s 32nd congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: San Gabriel Valley

November ballot: Grace Napolitano (D-inc) vs. David Miller (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 55-36

Governor 2010: Brown 57-35

President 2008: Obama 62-35

California’s 33rd congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: West Side L.A., Beach Cities, Palos Verdes

November ballot: Henry Waxman (D-inc) vs. Bill Bloomfield (NPP)

Senate 2010: Boxer 55-39

Governor 2010: Brown 54-40

President 2008: Obama 64-32

California’s 34th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Downtown L.A.

November ballot: Xavier Becerra (D-inc) vs. Steven Smith (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 75-16

Governor 2010: Brown 76-16

President 2008: Obama 77-19

California’s 35th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Inland Empire (Pomona, Fontana, Ontario)

November ballot: Joe Baca (D-inc) vs. Gloria Negrete-McLeod (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 56-34

Governor 2010: Brown 58-33

President 2008: Obama 64-32

Description: Another same-party race to watch, with McLeod challenging Baca from the left. McLeod has represented Pomona and Chino, which are not familiar to Baca, and held him under 50% despite establishment backing.

California’s 36th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Riverside County

November ballot: Mary Bono Mack (R-inc) vs. Raul Ruiz (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 51-42

Governor 2010: Whitman 50-43

President 2008: Obama 50-47

Description: Bono Mack had a closer-than-usual race in 2010 due to a third-party conservative. Now with a more Republican district she should be able to breathe easier.

California’s 37th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Crenshaw, Culver City

November ballot: Karen Bass (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 79-14

Governor 2010: Brown 79-15

President 2008: Obama 84-13

California’s 38th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Norwalk, Lakewood, Whittier

November ballot: Linda Sánchez (D-inc) vs. Ben Campos (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 55-35

Governor 2010: Brown 57-35

President 2008: Obama 61-35

California’s 39th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Fullerton, Yorba Linda, Diamond Bar, Chino Hills

November ballot: Ed Royce (R-inc) vs. Jay Chen (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 55-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 54-38

President 2008: McCain 49-47

California’s 40th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Downey, Bellflower, Bell Gardens

November ballot: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-inc) vs. David John Sanchez (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 72-18

Governor 2010: Brown 73-19

President 2008: Obama 77-19

California’s 41st congressional district: TOSS-UP

Geography: Riverside, Moreno Valley

November ballot: Mark Takano (D) vs. John Tavaglione (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 49-42

Governor 2010: Brown 52-40

President 2008: Obama 59-40

Description: This new Riverside seat will probably be the SoCal race to watch. On paper it should go Democratic, but Republicans have historically fared well in Riverside races. However, I haven’t been able to find any old Riverside districts as Democratic as this, so this district is uncharted territory for both parties.

California’s 42nd congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Corona, Murrieta, Lake Elsinore

November ballot: Ken Calvert (R-inc) vs. Michael Williamson (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 60-33

Governor 2010: Whitman 56-35

President 2008: McCain 54-43

California’s 43rd congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Inglewood, Hawthorne

November ballot: Maxine Waters (D-inc) vs. Bob Flores (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 68-23

Governor 2010: Brown 69-24

President 2008: Obama 75-22

Description: Flores got a third of the vote in the primary, so this may be a race to watch to see if Waters’ ethics issues finally catch up to her.

California’s 44th congressional district: GUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Carson, Compton, Long Beach, San Pedro

November ballot: Janice Hahn (D-inc) vs. Laura Richardson (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 76-15

Governor 2010: Brown 77-15

President 2008: Obama 81-16

Description: The other incumbent-vs.-incumbent race has much less drama. Like in June, Hahn should easily get more votes than scandal-tainted Richardson.

California’s 45th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Central Orange County (Irvine, Tustin, Mission Viejo)

November ballot: John Campbell (R-inc) vs. Sukhee Kang (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 60-33

Governor 2010: Whitman 59-34

President 2008: McCain 51-46

California’s 46th congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: North Central Orange County (Anaheim, Santa Ana)

November ballot: Loretta Sanchez (D-inc) vs. Jerry Hayden (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 49-40

Governor 2010: Brown 50-40

President 2008: Obama 58-39

California’s 47th congressional district: LEAN DEM

Geography: Long Beach, Garden Grove

November ballot: Gary DeLong (R) vs. Alan Lowenthal (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 50-42

Governor 2010: Brown 50-42

President 2008: Obama 58-39

Description: This should be a comfortable Democratic win, but Lowenthal’s until-recently lackluster fundraising and opposition to high-speed rail funds for the Central Valley has Democrats concerned. DeLong is also a serious contender, with strong backing from the NRCC.

California’s 48th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach

November ballot: Dana Rohrabacher (R-inc) vs. Ron Varasteh (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-35

Governor 2010: Whitman 58-35

President 2008: McCain 51-46

Californias’ 49th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Dana Point, San Clemente, Oceanside, Carlsbad

November ballot: Darrell Issa (R-inc) vs. Jerry Tetalman (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 56-36

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37

President 2008: Obama 49-48

California’s 50th congressional district: SAFE GOP

Geography: Temecula, San Diego County (Escondido, Santee)

November ballot: Duncan D. Hunter (R-inc) vs. David B. Secor (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 63-28

Governor 2010: Whitman 61-31

President 2008: McCain 58-39

California’s 51st congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: Imperial County, San Diego (Chula Vista, Imperial Beach)

November ballot: Michael Crimmins (R) vs. Juan Vargas (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-32

Governor 2010: Brown 58-31

President 2008: Obama 65-32

California’s 52nd congressional district: LEAN GOP

Geography: Coronado, Poway, San Diego

November ballot: Brian Bilbray (R-inc) vs. Scott Peters (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-42

Governor 2010: Whitman 50-43

President 2008: Obama 54-43

Description: This district is less Republican than the old CA-50, though Bilbray isn’t new to swingy districts having represented the old CA-49 in the 90s. Peters made it to the November ballot in spite of a nasty primary fight with the more liberal Saldana.

California’s 53rd congressional district: SAFE DEM

Geography: San Diego, Lemon Grove, El Cajon

November ballot: Susan Davis (D-inc) vs. Nick Popaditch (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-40

Governor 2010: Brown 52-40

President 2008: Obama 60-36

Overall, here are my ratings for the congressional races.

Guaranteed DEM: 7

Safe DEM: 21

Likely DEM: 1

Lean DEM: 4

Toss-Up: 2

Lean GOP: 2

Likely GOP: 2

Safe GOP: 12

Guaranteed GOP: 2

If my ratings pan out, the best Democrats can do (holding all their Guaranteed, Safe, Likely, and Lean seats and winning both toss-ups) is 35-18 and the best Republicans can do is 33-20.

Districts I’m watching: CA-03, CA-07, CA-09, CA-15, CA-24, CA-26, CA-30, CA-35, CA-41, CA-43, CA-47, CA-52

Outlook for California districts in 2012 – Post-Super Tuesday Edition

Here are the updated districts in my “Outlook” series. I replaced the 2008-President numbers with a “Cook PVI” based only on 2008. With this number, calculating the “Partisan Factor” (PF) became a bit easier, simply averaging the CPVI, 2010 Governor and Senate races, and the difference between the DEM and GOP registration numbers. The PF’s changed slightly, but the overall numbers for U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly remain the same.

For the 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Fiorina won 51-49 and Brown won 53.8-46.2.

U.S. House

District “Incumbent” DEM GOP Margin Cook PVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
CA-03
Garamendi
41.6
32.3
D+9.3
D+2.8
R+2.0
D+7.6
D+4.4
CA-07
Lungren
39.2
38.2
D+1.0
R+0.9
R+7.4
D+5.4
R+0.5
CA-09
McNerney
44.6
35.8
D+8.8
D+4.3
D+3.0
D+9.2
D+6.3
CA-16
Costa
47.9
32.7
D+15.2
D+5.2
R+3.8
D+8.4
D+6.3
CA-21
None
45.4
34.4
D+11.0
R+0.7
R+11.6
D+4.0
D+0.7
CA-24
Capps
38.9
35.1
D+3.8
D+4.3
R+1.4
D+0.6
D+1.8
CA-26
None
40.9
35.2
D+5.7
D+4.0
R+2.0
R+1.0
D+1.7
CA-31
None
41.0
35.9
D+5.1
D+4.0
D+2.2
D+8.2
D+4.9
CA-36
Bono Mack
39.0
40.7
R+1.7
R+2.1
R+11.0
R+6.8
R+5.4
CA-41
None
41.8
34.9
D+6.9
D+5.9
D+7.4
D+13.0
D+8.3
CA-46
Sanchez
44.3
31.7
D+12.6
D+6.3
D+10.0
D+10.6
D+9.9
CA-47
None
42.4
31.6
D+10.8
D+6.3
D+8.6
D+9.4
D+8.8
CA-52
Bilbray
32.7
35.4
R+2.7
D+2.5
R+7.8
R+8.4
R+4.1

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District DEM GOP Margin 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. Cook PVI PF
SD-05
41.7
38.7
D+3.0
R+7.0
D+1.6
D+0.6
R+1.4
SD-19
43.6
31.3
D+12.3
R+6.2
D+6.2
D+7.9
D+2.3
SD-27
40.4
34.6
D+5.8
R+0.8
R+0.8
D+4.7
D+0.8
SD-31
39.7
36.7
D+3.0
R+0.2
D+5.6
D+3.8
D+3.3
SD-39
37.7
30.4
D+7.3
D+6.6
D+6.0
D+8.6
D+6.8

State Assembly

District DEM GOP Margin 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. Cook PVI PF
AD-08
40.1
37.5
D+2.6
R+5.2
D+7.6
EVEN
D+1.6
AD-16
39.8
34.1
D+5.7
D+5.0
D+5.8
D+23.4
D+6.3
AD-21
46.3
34.1
D+12.2
R+7.2
D+1.2
D+11.5
R+0.5
AD-31
49.1
31.6
D+17.5
D+3.2
D+14.6
D+20.8
D+10.3
AD-32
46.6
32.5
D+14.1
R+8.3
R+8.6
D+7.7
R+5.4
AD-40
38.0
38.5
R+0.5
R+6.0
D+1.0
D+7.6
R+1.6
AD-44
38.9
37.0
D+1.9
R+5.8
R+5.4
D+12.0
R+4.0
AD-60
36.6
39.0
R+2.4
R+10.8
R+4.8
D+5.0
R+6.7
AD-61
42.6
34.5
D+8.1
D+10.4
D+15.8
D+24.0
D+13.1
AD-65
36.0
37.3
R+1.3
R+10.6
R+8.8
D+3.4
R+8.2
AD-66
38.2
35.4
D+2.8
R+2.2
R+1.4
D+12.6
R+0.6

If (and this is a big if) the races go according to the Partisan Factors, then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:

U.S. House: 36 DEM, 17 GOP

Safe DEM (27): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 43, 44, 51, 53

Safe GOP (13): 1, 4, 8, 10, 22, 23, 25, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50

State Senate: 27 DEM, 13 GOP

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35

Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37

Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP

State Assembly: 50 DEM, 30 GOP

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 78, 79, 80

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 21, 23, 26, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 55, 60, 65, 66, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77

Outlook for California districts in 2012 – Christmas/New Year’s edition

Picking up on a diary from 2006 about tracking competitive districts, I continued the tracking for the 2008 and 2010 elections. With the new district data, I can start the “Outlook” series for 2012.

In 2008 I tried a “Partisan Factor” (PF), inspired by a comment in the aforementioned diary, in which I averaged the margins in registration, 2002-Gov., 2004-Pres., 2004-Sen., and 2006-Sen. In 2010 I used just the registration and the 2008 presidential numbers. For 2012 I will try a new “Partisan Factor” using the registration margin, 2008-Pres., 2010-Sen., and 2010-Gov, with different weights.

Also, for the 2008 and 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Obama won 56.3-43.7, Fiorina won 51-49, and Brown won 53.8-46.2.

Here is the lowdown on these districts.

U.S. House

District “Incumbent” DEM GOP Margin 2008 Pres. 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
CA-03
Garamendi
42.1
32.8
D+9.3
D+12.6
R+2.0
D+7.6
D+3.9
CA-07
Lungren
39.4
38.6
D+0.8
D+5.5
R+7.4
D+5.4
R+0.5
CA-09
McNerney
45.3
35.8
D+9.5
D+15.5
D+3.0
D+9.2
D+6.9
CA-16
Costa
48.3
33.4
D+14.9
D+17.8
R+3.8
D+8.4
D+3.9
CA-21
None
46.2
35.3
D+10.9
D+5.8
R+11.6
D+4.0
R+1.9
CA-24
Capps
39.2
35.6
D+3.6
D+15.5
R+1.4
D+0.6
D+0.8
CA-26
Gallegly (?)
41.1
35.5
D+5.6
D+14.9
R+2.0
R+1.0
D+0.0
CA-31
Dreier/Lewis (?)
41.1
37.0
D+4.1
D+14.9
D+2.2
D+8.2
D+5.6
CA-36
Bono Mack
39.0
41.4
R+2.4
D+3.1
R+11.0
R+6.8
R+7.7
CA-41
None
41.9
35.3
D+6.6
D+18.9
D+7.4
D+13.0
D+10.3
CA-46
Sanchez
44.8
32.1
D+12.7
D+19.2
D+10.0
D+10.6
D+11.0
CA-47
None
42.6
32.0
D+10.6
D+19.3
D+8.6
D+9.4
D+9.7
CA-52
Bilbray
32.9
35.9
R+3.0
D+12.1
R+7.8
R+8.4
R+6.6

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District DEM GOP Margin 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. 2008 Pres. PF
SD-05
42.6
38.2
D+4.4
R+7.0
D+1.6
D+8.4
R+1.4
SD-19
44.0
31.8
D+12.2
R+6.2
D+6.2
D+22.5
D+2.3
SD-27
40.9
34.6
D+6.3
R+0.8
R+0.8
D+16.4
D+0.8
SD-31
39.8
37.1
D+2.7
R+0.2
D+5.6
D+14.5
D+3.3
SD-39
38.1
30.9
D+7.2
D+6.6
D+6.0
D+13.8
D+6.8

State Assembly

District DEM GOP Margin 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. 2008 Pres. PF
AD-08
40.4
37.9
D+2.5
R+5.2
D+7.6
D+7.1
D+1.6
AD-16
40.1
34.4
D+5.7
D+5.0
D+5.8
D+23.4
D+6.3
AD-21
47.9
33.0
D+14.9
R+7.2
D+1.2
D+11.5
R+0.5
AD-31
49.7
32.9
D+16.8
D+3.2
D+14.6
D+20.8
D+10.3
AD-32
47.5
33.5
D+14.0
R+8.3
R+8.6
D+7.7
R+5.4
AD-40
39.6
38.0
D+1.6
R+6.0
D+1.0
D+7.6
R+1.6
AD-44
39.2
37.2
D+2.0
R+5.8
R+5.4
D+12.0
R+4.0
AD-60
36.6
39.7
R+3.1
R+10.8
R+4.8
D+5.0
R+6.7
AD-61
42.8
34.7
D+8.1
D+10.4
D+15.8
D+24.0
D+13.1
AD-65
36.6
38.0
R+1.4
R+10.6
R+8.8
D+3.4
R+8.2
AD-66
38.4
35.6
D+2.8
R+2.2
R+1.4
D+12.6
R+0.6

If (and this is a big if) the races go according to the Partisan Factors, then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:

U.S. House: 35 DEM, 18 GOP

Safe DEM (26): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 43, 44, 51, 53

Safe GOP (14): 1, 4, 8, 10, 22, 23, 25, 39, 40, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50

State Senate: 27 DEM, 13 GOP

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35

Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37

Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP

State Assembly: 50 DEM, 30 GOP

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 78, 79, 80

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 21, 23, 26, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 55, 60, 65, 66, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77

Primary Turnout: Might Be A Good Year to Compete Everywhere

(bump cause I like congressional and numbers – promoted by Lucas O’Connor)

Turnout from Tuesday’s primary by party.  Every district with a Republican leaning PVI plus Barbara Lee just for fun and comparison’s sake. Of the Republican leaning districts, Dem turnout was higher in 8 and close in several others.  Might be an interesting November. Just sayin.

Numbers on the flip.

Update: I should have mentioned in the first place, there are still no Democratic candidates in CA-02, CA-19, CA-22, or CA-25.  Turnout was dead even in the 19th and higher for Dems in the 25th, just for starters.

CA-02; R+13

Wally Herger (R)

R 80,090

D 70,563

CA-03; R+7

Dan Lungren (R)

R 70,544

D 80,070

CA-04; R+11

Open (R)

R 107,757

D 89,717

CA-09; D+38

Barbara Lee (D)

R 13,384

D 124,070

CA-11; R+3

Jerry McNerney (D)

R 69,766

D 81,650

CA-19; R+10

George Radanovich (R)

R 63,766

D 62,331

CA-21; R+13

Devin Nunes (R)

R 51,272

D 44,053

CA-22; R+16

Kevin McCarthy (R)

R 86,234

D 61,123

CA-24; R+5

Elton Gallegly (R)

R 78,422

D 82,293

CA-25; R+7

Buck McKeon (R)

R 60,837

D 64,048

CA-26; R+4

David Dreier (R)

R 73,144

D 74,934

CA-40; R+8

Ed Royce (R)

R 66,027

D 59,372

CA-41; R+9

Jerry Lewis (R)

R 68,055

D 59,833

CA-42; R+10

Gary Miller (R)

R 79,622

D 63,182

CA-44; R+6

Ken Calvert (R)

R 57,083

D 57,317

CA-45; R+3

Mary Bono (R)

R 53,635

D 59,067

CA-46; R+6

Dana Rohrabacher (R)

R 81,427

D 74,084

CA-48; R+8

John Campbell (R)

R 92,187

D 75,845

CA-49; R+10

Darrell Issa (R)

R 62,658

D 53,493

CA-50; R+5

Brian Bilbray (R)

R 78,489

D 82,358

CA-52; R+9

Open (R)

R 74,593

D 67,849

Fox Attacks Black People; Where do CA CBC Members Stand?

UPDATE III:Our friends from Color of Change stopped by to say, “Big news — James, our director, talked with a credible reporter who talked with Carolyn Kilpatrick, who, after being pressed, said that there is a Fox debate in the works, it just hasn’t been announced.” Is Barbara Lee going to let this happen?

UPDATE II: ColorofChange worries that the CBC Institute is still in talks with Fox and says, “This is no time to let up the pressure. They could be waiting for it to blow over so they can announce next week.”

UPDATE: No need to call, the CBC Institute made a smart move, Fox lost out to CNN. Huge victory for Color of Change and a great day for the Democratic Party

Can a couple of Californians — armed with little more than internet connections and the truth — change the Congressional Black Caucus?

The Politico’s Ben Smith is reporting we will soon find out. James Rucker and Van Jones are set to use their organization Color of Change to challenge the boneheaded exploration by the CBC Institute of hosting a debate for Fox “News”. The opening salvo is going out via email and links to a Robert Greenwald video Fox Attacks: Black America. The email says in part:

Fox News has a horrible record of attacking Black people, leaders, and cultural institutions. But at this very moment, the Congressional Black Caucus Institute is negotiating to partner with Fox to host presidential debates prior to the 2008 elections.

For the CBC Institute to partner with an organization like Fox News-given its hostility to Black political interests-would be shameful. You can help prevent them from making this serious mistake by calling on them to drop negotiations with Fox […]

Given its record, Fox News shouldn’t enjoy the support of Black political or cultural institutions connected to the Congressional Black Caucus. We believe the CBC Institute will change course once it realizes that Black America, if not all of America, is watching. Please join us in making sure they hear us, loud and clear:

http://www.colorofchange.org/cbci/

It should be expected that this video will be seen widely, in just three weeks his video Fox Attacks Barack Obama has been viewed 349,341 times.

Following the massive backlash and victory against the Nevada Democratic Party’s attempt to get in bed with Fox, Matt Stoller explained:

Over the past three weeks or so, the progressive movement – bloggers, Moveon.org, grassroots activists, filmmakers – pressured the Nevada Democratic Party to drop Fox News as the host of a presidential debate in August. In pursuing this short campaign, we made two basic arguments that were eventually accepted by party leaders.

First, we argued that Fox News is not a news channel, but a propaganda outlet that regularly distorts, spins, and falsifies information. Second, Fox News is heavily influenced or even controlled by the Republican Party itself. As such, we believe that Fox News on the whole functions as a surrogate operation for the GOP. Treating Fox as a legitimate news channel extends the Republican Party’s ability to swift-boat and discredit our candidates. In other words, Fox News is a direct pipeline of misinformation from the GOP leadership into the traditional press.

The current trend in the Party to hold leaders accountable for counter-productive decisions will now be waged in the Congressional Black Caucus and against the CBC Institute. Where do California members stand? Who knows, but you can ask them:

CA-09: CBC 1st Vice Chair Barbara Lee – (510) 763-0370

CA-37: Juanita Millender-McDonald – (310) 538-1190

CA-35: Maxine Waters – (323) 757-8900

CA-33: Diane Watson – (323) 965-1422

You can also sign the petition and call the Congressional Black Caucus Institute at (202) 785-3634. But first, check out the video.