California

Outlook for California districts in 2012 – Post-Super Tuesday Edition

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Here are the updated districts in my “Outlook” series. I replaced the 2008-President numbers with a “Cook PVI” based only on 2008. With this number, calculating the “Partisan Factor” (PF) became a bit easier, simply averaging the CPVI, 2010 Governor and Senate races, and the difference between the DEM and GOP registration numbers. The PF’s changed slightly, but the overall numbers for U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly remain the same.

For the 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Fiorina won 51-49 and Brown won 53.8-46.2.

U.S. House

District “Incumbent” DEM GOP Margin Cook PVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
CA-03
Garamendi
41.6
32.3
D+9.3
D+2.8
R+2.0
D+7.6
D+4.4
CA-07
Lungren
39.2
38.2
D+1.0
R+0.9
R+7.4
D+5.4
R+0.5
CA-09
McNerney
44.6
35.8
D+8.8
D+4.3
D+3.0
D+9.2
D+6.3
CA-16
Costa
47.9
32.7
D+15.2
D+5.2
R+3.8
D+8.4
D+6.3
CA-21
None
45.4
34.4
D+11.0
R+0.7
R+11.6
D+4.0
D+0.7
CA-24
Capps
38.9
35.1
D+3.8
D+4.3
R+1.4
D+0.6
D+1.8
CA-26
None
40.9
35.2
D+5.7
D+4.0
R+2.0
R+1.0
D+1.7
CA-31
None
41.0
35.9
D+5.1
D+4.0
D+2.2
D+8.2
D+4.9
CA-36
Bono Mack
39.0
40.7
R+1.7
R+2.1
R+11.0
R+6.8
R+5.4
CA-41
None
41.8
34.9
D+6.9
D+5.9
D+7.4
D+13.0
D+8.3
CA-46
Sanchez
44.3
31.7
D+12.6
D+6.3
D+10.0
D+10.6
D+9.9
CA-47
None
42.4
31.6
D+10.8
D+6.3
D+8.6
D+9.4
D+8.8
CA-52
Bilbray
32.7
35.4
R+2.7
D+2.5
R+7.8
R+8.4
R+4.1

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District DEM GOP Margin 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. Cook PVI PF
SD-05
41.7
38.7
D+3.0
R+7.0
D+1.6
D+0.6
R+1.4
SD-19
43.6
31.3
D+12.3
R+6.2
D+6.2
D+7.9
D+2.3
SD-27
40.4
34.6
D+5.8
R+0.8
R+0.8
D+4.7
D+0.8
SD-31
39.7
36.7
D+3.0
R+0.2
D+5.6
D+3.8
D+3.3
SD-39
37.7
30.4
D+7.3
D+6.6
D+6.0
D+8.6
D+6.8

State Assembly

District DEM GOP Margin 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. Cook PVI PF
AD-08
40.1
37.5
D+2.6
R+5.2
D+7.6
EVEN
D+1.6
AD-16
39.8
34.1
D+5.7
D+5.0
D+5.8
D+23.4
D+6.3
AD-21
46.3
34.1
D+12.2
R+7.2
D+1.2
D+11.5
R+0.5
AD-31
49.1
31.6
D+17.5
D+3.2
D+14.6
D+20.8
D+10.3
AD-32
46.6
32.5
D+14.1
R+8.3
R+8.6
D+7.7
R+5.4
AD-40
38.0
38.5
R+0.5
R+6.0
D+1.0
D+7.6
R+1.6
AD-44
38.9
37.0
D+1.9
R+5.8
R+5.4
D+12.0
R+4.0
AD-60
36.6
39.0
R+2.4
R+10.8
R+4.8
D+5.0
R+6.7
AD-61
42.6
34.5
D+8.1
D+10.4
D+15.8
D+24.0
D+13.1
AD-65
36.0
37.3
R+1.3
R+10.6
R+8.8
D+3.4
R+8.2
AD-66
38.2
35.4
D+2.8
R+2.2
R+1.4
D+12.6
R+0.6

If (and this is a big if) the races go according to the Partisan Factors, then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:

U.S. House: 36 DEM, 17 GOP

Safe DEM (27): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 43, 44, 51, 53

Safe GOP (13): 1, 4, 8, 10, 22, 23, 25, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50

State Senate: 27 DEM, 13 GOP

Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35

Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37

Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP

State Assembly: 50 DEM, 30 GOP

Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 78, 79, 80

Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 21, 23, 26, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 55, 60, 65, 66, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77

5 thoughts on “Outlook for California districts in 2012 – Post-Super Tuesday Edition”

  3. Given Obama’s coattails in 2008, and him being on the ballot in 2012, it’s probably a significant factor.

  4. so the democrats would end up with a 2/3 majority in the Senate but not in the Assembly.  

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