Poll shows Californians still think we are in a recession

by Brian Leubitz

Technically, we are no longer in a recession. All of the economic data shows as much. However, that doesn’t mean all that much for Californians suffering under weight of the worst economic situation since the Depression. Yes, people are hiring, but not fast enough. Despite the economic data, most likely voters (84%) believe that the state is in a recession. Nearly half (48%) say the recession is serious. And that is going to play havoc with the Governor’s revenue measure.  

While a strong majority of likely voters (78%) describe the state budget situation as a big problem, slightly more than half (52%) say they would vote yes on Governor Jerry Brown’s tax initiative when they are read the ballot title and a summary (40% no, 8% undecided). Most Democratic likely voters (71%) would vote yes, most Republicans (65%) would vote no, and independents are more closely divided (49% yes, 41% no). Because this is the first time PPIC has been able to ask about the governor’s proposal using the ballot title and a summary, direct comparison to previous surveys is not possible. However, past surveys found majority support for his plan to temporarily raise taxes (68% January 2012, 60% December 2011).(PPIC)

The Millionaire’s Tax supporters are scheduled to release their own poll showing stronger support this week. Just what those numbers say could mean that the ballot looks very different in November than what we expected six months ago.

Speaking of the ballot, the two June propositions are showing strong early support. The term limits measure, which changes the term limits for future legislators to 12 years for both houses, is starting at 68% support, while the cancer cigarette tax is at 67%.  However, wait for the No campaigns to come online before you really start analyzing too deeply.

On an unrelated note, the poll also showed increased support for marriage equality:

A number of social issues are being debated this election year. Californians’ views have undergone a marked shift on one issue: same-sex marriage. Today, 56 percent of likely voters favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to legally marry-up from 47 percent in October 2008, just before voters passed Proposition 8, which banned same-sex marriage. Among registered voters, majorities of Democrats (72%) and independents (56%) today favor legalizing same-sex marriage. Most Republicans (61%) are opposed. Support has grown in most political and demographic groups since October 2008. It is up 16 points among Democrats (56% to 72%), 11 points among Republicans (23% to 34%), and is similar among independents (53% to 56%). Support is up 10 points among Latinos (36% to 46%) and 7 points among whites (50% to 57%). Across age groups, support grew 10 points among those age 18-34 (53% to 63%), 13 points among those 55 and older (34% to 47%), and is similar among those age 35-54 (45% to 48%). Among evangelical Christians, support increased 15 points (21% to 36%).