California

Outlook for California districts in 2012 – Post-Convention Edition

I know it’s been a month since the conventions, but I have been very busy in that time.

Here are the updated districts in my “Outlook” series. From my formula predictions on all states’ elections, which I will show later, I determined which congressional districts were competitive and added the 10th congressional district and also the 78th Assembly district to the list.

My predictions for all California races, Congress and state legislature, will also come soon.

U.S. House

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
CA-03
R+3.4
D+2.8
R+6.3
R+3.0
R+2.5
CA-07
R+8.4
R+0.9
R+9
R+4.1
R+5.6
CA-09
R+2.8
D+4.3
R+3.8
R+2.2
R+1.1
CA-10
R+8.5
R+3.8
R+12.3
R+9.6
R+8.6
CA-16
D+0.3
D+5.2
R+7.2
R+2.6
R+1.1
CA-21
R+0.2
R+0.7
R+11.1
R+4.8
R+4.2
CA-24
R+7.3
D+4.3
R+6
R+6.5
R+3.9
CA-26
R+6.0
D+4.0
R+6.3
R+7.3
R+3.9
CA-36
R+9.7
R+2.1
R+10.2
R+10.2
R+8.1
CA-41
R+6.9
D+5.9
R+1.6
R+0.3
R+0.7
CA-47
R+1.0
D+6.3
R+0.3
R+1.5
D+0.6
CA-52
R+11.2
D+2.5
R+9.2
R+11.0
R+7.2

State Senate (odd-numbered districts)

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
SD-05
R+8.0
D+0.6
R+8.8
R+6.0
R+7.0
SD-19
R+1.6
D+7.9
R+2.2
R+3.4
D+0.2
SD-27
R+5.4
D+4.7
R+5.7
R+7.2
R+3.4
SD-31
R+6.2
D+3.8
R+5.4
R+4.0
R+3.7
SD-39
R+3.8
D+8.6
R+2.0
R+3.8
R+0.3

State Assembly

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
AD-08
R+6.3
EVEN
R+7.9
R+3.0
R+4.3
AD-16
R+4.9
D+8.3
R+2.8
R+3.9
R+0.8
AD-21
R+2.4
D+2.2
R+8.9
R+5.7
R+3.7
AD-32
D+3.4
D+0.3
R+9.6
R+11.1
R+4.3
AD-40
R+9.2
D+0.2
R+8.4
R+6.3
R+5.9
AD-44
R+8.4
D+2.5
R+8.2
R+9.5
R+5.9
AD-60
R+13.2
R+1.1
R+10.7
R+9.2
R+8.6
AD-61
R+5.6
D+8.7
R+0.1
D+1.1
D+1.0
AD-65
R+9.6
R+1.9
R+10.6
R+11.2
R+8.3
AD-66
R+5.9
D+2.8
R+6.4
R+7.5
R+4.3
AD-78
D+0.8
D+12.0
D+3.4
D+1.4
D+4.4