The Republicans in the 50th Congressional District are starting to feel comfortable about having a win in the bag in 2010. CQ Politics just released an assessment that Bilbray’s GOP seat in North County’s 50th is secure. Clearly the author is unaware of the district’s history and political leanings before 2002 covered in Part 1 of this series and plays down the systematic closing of the point gap between Democrats and Republicans since the Republican’s gerrymandered win in 2002.  Part 2 of this series will explore why a Democratic candidate hasn’t yet won the District and what they need to do to wrestle control back from the Republicans.

Why hasn’t a Democrat won the district back yet?

The following list encompasses some personal observations as well as election analysis in a 2006 poll commissioned in California’s 50th Congressional District by Courage Campaign, a non-partisan, Progressive 527 based in Los Angeles, and MyDD, a Progressive blog devoted to analysis and commentary on political campaigns and infrastructure, to determine why the national Democratic message failed to give Democrat Francine Busby the seat formerly occupied by convicted felon, Republican Randy “Duke” Cunningham. Busby also lost to Republican Brian Bilbray in the 2006 regular election, having probably been her last best chance to win this district.

1. Voter Turnout – A winning Democratic candidate needs high Independent and Decline to State voter turnout, which combined currently makes up at least 28% of registered voters in North County, to close the point gap with the Republican incumbent. Busby has been repeatedly unsuccessful in mobilizing this demographic and securing their vote. Voter appeal beyond Democratic base voters will be instrumental.

2. Inland Voter Turnout – A winning Democratic candidate needs to mobilize and secure the vote of residents in the inland part of the district. The highest density of registered voters are inland and the majority of these voters are working class families. Thus far, the previous Democratic candidates have been coastal candidates, such as Busby and Nick Leibham, which did not resonate with inland voters. However, one candidate Progressive Democrat Tracy Emblem, a resident of Escondido since 1964 with working class roots and strong support from Labor Unions will appeal to this key inland working class demographic.

3. Issue-based Campaign – A winning Democratic candidate needs to clearly draw a distinction between themselves and the Republican incumbent by running a strong, issue-based campaign. Most voters in 2006 had no concrete idea where Busby stood on important issues, so her image in the mind of the voter was poorly defined. The Republicans, on the other hand, led the discussion and framed any debate around issues they knew would resonate in their favor. Even in the current jockeying for the 2010 primary election, until a month ago Emblem was the only candidate who clearly outlined her positions on important issues on her campaign website. Busby only recently added any substantive issue-based information to her campaign website after Emblem pointed out  the omission at a Mesa Democratic Club meeting in November.

4. Accountability – A winning Democratic candidate has to hold the current administration accountable for problems that have occurred under its watch both at home and abroad. This is as relevant now as it was during the Bush administration, perhaps more-so. President Obama has high disapproval ratings and a successful candidate needs to distinguish clearly how they will provide viable solutions to the problems the Obama administration and Democratic legislators have been unable to resolve. San Diego News Network noted that Busby is still uncritically toting President Obama’s change message as if she’s his sidekick. Emblem, on the other hand, has demonstrated that she can hold the President accountable for unsuccessful policy decisions, like Afghanistan.

What’s the bottom line?

The Democratic party cannot continue to do the same old same old in the 50th district if they have any hope of unseating incumbent Republican Bilbray. With a focus on voter turnout, an issues-based campaign focusing on issues that resonate with Independent, Decline to State and Inland voters, and lastly courage to hold the current administration accountable for policy missteps, Democrats can pull off this supposed Hail Mary pass win.

For those living underneath a rock for the last 40 years, it is worth underscoring that Brown has developed a lengthy political resume. He’s served terms on the Los Angeles Community College Board of Trustees (1969-1971), as California Secretary of State (1971-1975), as Governor of California (1975-1983), as chair of the California Democratic Party (1989-1991), the Mayor of Oakland (1998-2006), and the Attorney General of California (2007-present). He unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nominations for president in 1976, 1980, and 1992, and was an unsuccessful Democratic nominee for the United States Senate in 1982. Since Brown’s terms in office are not covered by the term limits that came into effect in 1990, he is not barred from running for Governor again, and has indicated that he plans to run for the office again in 2010.

What was 1970s Governor Brown about? He was opposed to the Vietnam War, supported environmental protection (repealed a tax break for the state’s big oil companies while passing tax-breaks for homeowner installation of solar panels), and appointed more women and minorities to office than any other previous California governor. As Governor, he passed landmark legislation to force full disclosure of finance and interest charges by credit card companies, allowed consumers to purchase generic drugs and created the nation’s first affordable “life-line” utility rates for seniors and needy residential customers. Brown signed landmark legislation adding public members to regulatory boards that previously had been controlled by industry representatives.

What might the Governor Brown of today be about?

• Brown may be a supporter of marriage equality: The State Attorney General normally argues in support of laws that have been passed by the electorate. Brown took an unusual step by declining to defend Proposition 8, a voter-approved amendment to the state constitution that banned same-sex marriage.
• He will continue to protect the environment: As Attorney General, Brown has led the fight against George Bush’s EPA, defended California’s landmark tailpipe emission laws and actively promoted local land use policies that reduce oil dependency and global warming.
• Brown will fight mortgage fraud and real estate scams: As Attorney General, Brown has pursued companies and individuals who perpetrated massive mortgage fraud, including an $8.6 Billion settlement with Countrywide, and claims that he will also go after those who would further exploit the mortgage crisis by offering fraudulent “rescue” services.
• He will support labor: As Attorney General, Brown has sued unscrupulous employers for denying workers wages and benefits required by state law, shut down companies that have jeopardized worker safety and prosecuted businesses that have bilked California’s workers’ compensation system or otherwise circumvented state tax and employment laws.
• Brown will continue protecting consumers: As Attorney General, Brown has made consumer fraud prevention a top priority. In addition to vigorous pursuit of the mortgage scam artists, he has gone after price gouging, false advertising, and contaminated and unsafe products.
• He will fight fraud and abuse in California’s health care system: As Attorney General, Brown has sued medical laboratories for massive overcharges, stopped rip-offs in the Medi-Cal Program, cracked down on unlawful abuse of prescription drugs, fought misleading ad campaigns by major drug companies and arrested nursing home operators for forcibly drugging elderly patients.

Progressive Pushback

Despite Brown’s Progressive past, on a recent campaign stop in Orange County, he left a bad aftertaste in the mouths of Los Angeles Progressive Democrats who attended:

Brown refused to endorse any changes to Prop 13, saying he did not think it was “needed” and that “we’ve got to downsize government to the maximum degree.” He also voiced support for the three-strikes law, and would not take a stance on a “public option” for health care. He did support scrapping the “two-thirds” rule for passing a state budget (but not taxes), and endorsed a path to legalization for undocumented immigrants – but with no candidate running to his left, this was the best that progressives can hope from Jerry Brown. Given California’s mammoth problems that need immediate attention, that’s depressing.

It will be interesting to see what the new year brings as Brown faces formidable Republican candidates Meg Whitman, Steve Poizner, and Tom Campbell.

San Diego, CA – Progressive Author & Activist, Norman Solomon endorses Tracy Emblem as the progressive candidate and the Democrats only hope in 2010 to win a seat in the House of Representatives from California’s 50th District.

Mr. Solomon is the founder and Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Accuracy, a nationally syndicated columnist on media and politics and is on the advisory board of Progressive Democrats of America. Widely known for his groundbreaking works, Made Love, Got War and War Made Easy, he has been writing the weekly Media Beat column since 1992. He recently co-authored a resolution which the California Democratic Party adopted in November calling for the end of the United States occupation and air-war in Afghanistan.  

Tracy’s Position on the Escalation of our Troops in Afghanistan:

Meet the Candidate & See For Yourself Why Her Support is Surging

December 14th, 6-7:30PM Del Mar, California

Business Owner Georgia Dutro will be hosting a meet & greet with Congressional Candidate, Tracy Emblem in her Del Mar home located at 2127 Heather Lane in Del Mar, CA 92014. The suggested contribution to attend this special event is $50 which can be made online or at the door. To RSVP please contact Debra Rose at email her at [email protected] or call her at (916) 206-9426.

December 16th, 6-8PM La Jolla, California

Ret. San Diego City Councilwoman, Mentor & Run Woman Run Lifetime Member,

Abbe Wolsheimer-Stutz will be hosting a meet & greet at her home in La Jolla, California for Congressional Candidate, Tracy Emblem. A map to this private event will be issued upon RSVP. A suggested contribution to attend this special event is $100 which can be made online or at the door. To RSVP please contact Debra Rose at (916) 206-9426 or via email at [email protected].

December 17th, 6:30-7:30PM Encinitas, California

Join Retired Navy Captain, Roy Tobin at his home in Encinitas, California for a meet & greet featuring Congressional Candidate, Tracy Emblem. Capt. Tobin supports Tracy Emblem because Tracy supports our Veterans and our Troops. A map to this private event will be issued upon RSVP. A suggested contribution to attend this special event is $50 which can be made online or at the door. To RSVP please contact Debra Rose at (916) 206-9426 or via email at [email protected].

December 19th, 2:00-4:00PM Rancho Bernardo (San Diego), California

The Rancho Bernardo Democratic Club’s past President, Patricia Jones will be hosting a meet & greet for Congressional Candidate, Tracy Emblem at her home located at 12349 Oliva Road in Rancho Bernardo. A suggested contribution to attend this special event is $50 which can be made online or at the door. To RSVP please contact Debra Rose at (916) 206-9426 or via email at [email protected].

Support Tracy Emblem – Accountability for California’s 50th District and America

Network with Tracy Emblem

Website

Flickr

MySpace

Twitter @TracyEmblem

Facebook

The district is ripe for the picking but Tracy Emblem is the fresh democratic face the district needs. Francine Busby has proven that she doesn't have the support of the entire district behind her and is out of touch with inland voters. Tracy is an attorney based out of Escondido and understands the needs of the entire district, coastal and inland, it's demographics and what is needed to win. Her winning message of strongly supporting working families and Labor Unions, creating new jobs, rebuilding our economy, supporting public education, fixing healthcare, protecting our environment, and supporting President Barack Obama’s economic recovery program will resonate with Progressive voters in the district.

Tracy will work to restore the American dream of home ownership by looking for and enacting solutions that will stabilize our housing market, and supporting legislation to protect the interests of homeowners and home buyers by requiring fair lending guidelines that prevent predatory lending practices.

She is a firm consumer advocate and will support consumer protection that helps keep American families safe through testing, oversight and product recalls when necessary, and will hold companies and CEOs accountable.

She will work to bring together coalitions to keep jobs in America and work to bring good-paying jobs to our local communities in North San Diego County, as well as eliminate subsidies for corporations that move American jobs overseas. She will work to balance the budget and pay down our national debt to restore our strong economy. Wasteful spending will be eliminated by accountability and regular evaluation of programs in terms of a cost-benefit approach. Tracy will also work in a bipartisan manner to restore tax fairness for all Americans.

Tracy supports energy independence and will work to shift our energy policies to transition toward renewable resources such as wind and solar energy instead of fossil fuels. By doing so she will create well-paying, family-sustaining, green jobs in North County that protect the public’s health and the environment. Tracy will also work to adopt conservation policies that cut emissions and provide businesses and homeowners opportunities to invest in green technologies. She supports educational initiatives to inform the public about ways to conserve resources and transition to green energy alternatives.

She is committed to creating a method of mass transportation to ease the burden and congestion of our overworked roads. She encourages the use of mass transit to reduce fuel consumption and save energy. She will also work to identify a fair funding source and plan to overhaul our aging mass transportation systems with an affordable transportation system, which would reduce the need for cars, and design a system linked to the work and business hubs in our communities. She will also seek to build more environmentally-friendly biking paths and cross?walks in our urban areas.

Tracy supports the Employee Free Choice Act, which protects employees' rights to unionize without pressure from employers or threats of job loss. She also strongly supports collective bargaining, a raise in the federal minimum wage, enforcement of OSHA safety standards, and the Davis-Bacon Act, which requires prevailing wage rates to be paid on all federally funded or assisted construction projects. In addition, Tracy supports project labor agreements which have been used for decades on large federally funded projects including the Hoover Dam. Project labor agreements provide jobs for those who live in the community where the project is being constructed.

She will work to reduce the number of homeless veterans on our streets, including many Veterans from the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts by supporting transition training programs and assistance to find them civilian jobs and housing. She will work to provide funding and partner with our labor unions to provide training for returning Veterans so we can help assimilate them into our communities with decent paying jobs. Tracy will also help to fund state of the art healthcare to meet the needs of Veterans returning with brain injuries or other traumatic wounds, as well as post traumatic stress as a result of deployments in combat zones.

Tracy strongly believes that women must have the right to make private choices with their doctors about their bodies without government interference; however, unplanned pregnancies can be prevented by improving economic opportunities for women. Equal pay, improved job training and job opportunities, as well as access to affordable healthcare and childcare are humane and reasonable steps that should be taken to reduce the number of abortions, and improve the lives of women and their families.

Check out her campaign website for more position statements on a variety of issues, like education, fire protection, foreign policy, health care, seniors, small businesses, and working families:

http://www.tracyemblemforcongress.com/

She has lived in the Escondido area since 1964. Tracy went to law school at night and earned her law degree while raising a family of seven children. She has been practicing law since 1989. Tracy Emblem is an experienced and award winning attorney who has researched and written over 300 writs and appeals. She has argued in the California Supreme Court and championed civil rights.

Tracy Emblem cares about our communities. She served on the Board of Directors of the League of Women Voters of Escondido and as the board president for the Escondido Community Child Care Development Center, a non profit organization that provides early education and child care for working families.

The Midterm Election for 2010 in California's 50th District is a targeted race and the incumbent has not provided effective leadership for our nation or our communities in North San Diego County. Tracy has already garnered the early financial support of more than 5 labor unions and has the endorsements and support of over 130 prominent Attorneys from San Diego County.

Tracy Emblem is a Champion for the People, an Outstanding Advocate and is the only candidate who can beat the incumbent.