Tunnels would bring water from Delta to Southern California

by Brian Leubitz

The Delta tunnels have the support of Governor Brown as a critical infrastructure project, but they are hardly without controversy. In particular, Delta Senator Lois Walk has been fighting any sort of grand water transfer system since she walked into the Assembly years ago.

But the California Alliance for Jobs, a group composed of construction firms and labor, is pushing the project as “education” and also to gain a little leverage over the negotiations surrounding the Bay Delta Conservation Plan.

The ad campaign is notable because of the high-stakes battle being fought out — mostly out of public view — between environmentalists and governmental agencies working on the Bay Delta Conservation Plan, the blueprint for the $23 billion tunnel project. The Brown administration is set to release more details of the plan Wednesday at a Milpitas news conference.

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The ads, he said, aren’t necessarily designed to win votes or even to have voters call their legislators to seek their support. Instead, he said, they are to educate a public that rarely makes the connection between infrastructure needs and the economy.

“It’s more linked to negotiations on the Bay Delta Conservation Plan,” Earp said. “We are definitely for this project, so we’ll advocate for it.” (Steve Harmon / BANG)

With the possibility of the bond ranging from $6 Billion to $11 Billion, there is a lot at stake here. And these tunnels will mean a lot of money will be flowing to the construction sector. Even if the tunnels are completed around their low estimates, you are still talking about billions of dollars for this project alone.

While environmentalists have been critical of the proposal, there is also a pretty big fight between the regional agricultural interests. Delta farmers are very concerned that transporting that much water will present huge long-term risks to their own crops. On the flip side, Central Valley farmers, especially those in and around the Westlands Water District face some pretty tough times under most climate models unless they get some surety of a consistent water source.

Back in the 1980s, California voters rejected a peripheral canal at the ballot. We are unlikely to see anything so direct anytime soon on our ballot, as leaders have indicated that it wouldn’t go directly to the ballot. However it happens, we could definitely use more transparency and more attention on an issue that will impact the state for at least a hundred years.

New California Covered health insurance exchange releases rate calculator

by Brian Leubitz

The California Covered health insurance exchange released their rates this morning, and as you would expect, they are still pretty high.

For a relatively basic policy, known as a “silver” plan, the total monthly premium in the Sacramento region for a 40-year-old single individual would range from $332 to $476, with federal subsidies on a sliding scale for people with incomes up to $45,960. Individuals eligible for the highest subsidy, $276 per month, would face out-of-pocket expenses of $56 for monthly premiums.

Under next year’s controversial national health-care mandate, often called Obamacare, nearly all Americans will be required to have health insurance next year or pay a fine of $95 or 1 percent of their annual income, whichever is more.(SacBee)

Now, this is still likely cheaper, and far less confusing, than what you would have found on the open individual market. But clearly more needs to be done to control health care costs, or the yearly rate increases will be unsustainable for all but the most wealthy.

The California Covered website has a nice calculator for what your general costs will be on the exchange, and a PDF table of benefits for the four levels of coverage.

UPDATE: Not so fast, Vidak has fallen below 50%. More info here.

Sacramento Bee Columnist Thinks Vidak Win is a blow to “Democratic Left”

by Brian Leubitz

I have a lot of respect for Dan Walters. We don’t agree on a wide range of issues (including his climate skepticism), you have to admire his persistence. He’s been doing this for a long, long time. And anybody who can stick around a depressing and crazy place like California’s capitol is worthy of respect.

However, he has a way of misreading political events, or forcing them into his own vision of what California politics should be.  But, I must say I was rather puzzled by his “Dan Walters Daily” video this morning, embedded to the right.

Basically, his point is that the Vidak win is a huge loss for the “Democratic left” who want to reform government and increase revenue. However, to be quite frank, his point holds no water whatsoever.

First, on the supermajority: Democrats now hold 28 seats. A supermajority is 27 seats, so they can still afford to lose one vote on 2/3 votes. And if Democrats had won 28 votes on election day, with no vacancies to worry about, would there really be all the handwringing? This is a solid 2/3 majority after all, only one vote short of the 29 we came into the session with.

Next, who are we replacing? Michael Rubio was never going to vote for sweeping revenue increases. Rubio was never going to touch Prop 13, even if Sen. Steinberg was thinking about it. Rubio clearly was an easier vote to grab than Vidak will be, but this is hardly the loss of a “Democratic left” champion.

Rubio was the most moderate Democratic senator. He was pushing CEQA reform that would have really left the purpose of the environmental protection scheme in question. The environment of our state is really far better off with Sen. Steinberg carrying the load on that legislation than the state senator from Chevron. Rubio was going to be one of the lost votes from the start on any major 2/3 vote that progressives wanted anyway.

As for Leticia Perez, she likely would have been a bit better than Michael Rubio. But let’s take a look at her campaign website, where she lists her platform:

“My campaign platform is simple: “1) I won’t raise your taxes. 2) I will raise the minimum wage to $9.25 an hour. 3) I guarantee that every child is taught to read and write English.

This is the devestating loss to the Democratic left? She announced that she would never vote for tax increases, and somehow that is a blow to the Democratic left? She was going to be lost vote #1, no matter how you slice it. Now, as you can see from points 2 and 3, she would certainly be better for the working poor and minimum wage issue than Vidak will be. But that is a majority vote issue anyway, and the decision on minimum wage is essentially left to the governor now. If Gov. Brown wants a minimum wage increase, he can pass it through the legislature, with Vidak or Perez in that seat.

Finally, you could argue that this breathes life into the California GOP. That might be true, but the math in this race is crazy. In 2010, when Rubio was elected, he defeated Tim Thiessen with a final tally of 71,334-46,717. In this week’s special election, Vidak won by a count of 29,837-24,584. This was a very low turnout election in a district with big distances for voters and many working poor that just couldn’t take the time off to vote in a single race special election. Furthermore, the district will change next year when Vidak has to run for re-election due to redistricting, and will continue to be a heavily Democratic district. There is a very strong chance for Democrats to take back this seat within 18 months.

Sorry, Mr. Walters. I just can’t see this as the big blow to the progressive wing of the Democratic party that you apparently think that it is.

UPDATE: Not so fast, Vidak has fallen below 50%. More info here.

Republicans gain seat through 2014

by Brian Leubitz

Andy Vidak has won election to SD-16 by carrying over 50% of the vote in the special election yesterday. That’s the bad news for Democrats this morning.

Tuesday night, Vidak’s supporters gathered at his Hanford-Armona farm and cheered him on as the votes came in from all four counties in Senate District 16. This includes all of Kings County, where Vidak lives, and portions of Fresno, Tulare and Kern counties.

Overall, Vidak received nearly 52 percent of the votes. Leticia Perez had nearly 42 percent. (KSFN)

That means the Senate Democratic majority is now at 27, a bare supermajority, but a supermajority nonetheless. But, about that SD-16. It is a very Democratic district. Very Democratic, but a low turnout Democratic district. Special elections can be tough for a district like this. Vidak had a bit of name recognition, and the low turnout helped him across the line.

Now, as for the district going forward into the 2014 election, the district changes substantially. Vidak will have to introduce himself to a new electorate, an electorate that is still a strong Democratic electorate. And in an election where turnout will be substantially higher than a small special election.  So, there is the long-term upside, I suppose.

Lorena Gonzalez takes Assembly Seat, Leticia Perez to Senate Runoff

by Brian Leubitz

Eric Garcetti rode his strength in his council district and the surrounding communities, while staying competitive in the Valley, to a victory in yesterday’s Los Angeles Mayoral election:

Three-term City Councilman Eric Garcetti’s relentless campaigning paid off early Wednesday as he decisively won a hard-fought race to become Los Angeles’ next mayor, scoring well with voters across the sprawling city and even challenging rival Wendy Greuel on her home turf in the San Fernando Valley.

Garcetti took 54% of the vote compared with 46% for Greuel in preliminary results, ending speculation that the race was so tight that a winner might not be known for weeks. Some mail-in ballots must still be counted, but they are not expected to significantly change the results.

The gap was a bit wider than most expected, but with light turnout, Garcetti’s base made all the difference. Garcetti becomes the first Jewish Mayor of Los Angeles, and is expected to continue to stress job creation as Mayor.

Meanwhile, Curren Price won a seat on the City Council, so there will be special elections to replace him and Bob Blumenfield after they are sworn into their new gigs. And in the special elections around the state, Lorena Gonzalez cruised to victory in AD-80.

Super Bowl L to be played in Santa Clara in 2016

by Brian Leubitz

You don’t generally see sports news here. Not because I don’t enjoy talking, or writing, about sports, but there are probably better places for your sports information. However, this piece of sports news is worthy of inclusion: Super Bowl L in 2016 will be played in the new football stadium in Santa Clara.

Team owners voted Tuesday for the 49ers’ new stadium as host of the 2016 game. That facility in Santa Clara, Calif., is due to open for the 2014 season. The only previous Super Bowl played in northern California was at Stanford Stadium in 1985.

San Francisco beat out South Florida, which was stymied in its bid to stage an 11th Super Bowl when the Florida Legislature did not support financing to renovate Sun Life Stadium, the home of the Miami Dolphins.

While many in San Francisco are still more than a little bummed to see the 49ers skip town for the South Bay, the City is working with Santa Clara and the NFL to host the Super Bowl. Many of the events will be hosted in San Francisco as well.

Now, that second paragraph, where the NFL complains about Florida’s government not ponying up the cash? Well, that is typical sports economics, but the subsidies for billion dollar companies is always a bit frustrating.

Progressives push legislature to use supermajority for big change

by Brian Leubitz

When the Legislature hit the magical 2/3 mark after the November 2012 election, a lot of progressives started dreaming big. Prop 30 just passed, and a statement had been made for a progressive vision of California. A majority of Californians had just voted to raise their taxes. Whether thanks to the strong field campaign around Prop 32 or through changing demographics of a presidential election, the Democrats gained big on the Legislative front.

But muddying these waters was a lot of mixed messaging. Gov. Brown had at least signaled that he thought Prop 30 was the only tax revenue measure that we should pass for a while, and some of the Democratic legislators had more or less said the same thing.

On the other side, the dreams were building for those who focused less on the immediate political future and more on the long term progressive vision. Progressive leaders were looking at Prop 13 reform, oil severance taxes, minimum wage increases and more. A lot of powder has been kept dry over the past few years with the constant budget fight, and with that superminority concern out of the way, some looked to really mount the pressure. And to be clear, they have mounted a lot of pressure. I’ve seen enough of these discussions between progressive leaders and legislators to know that the pressure on them is real.

“The supermajority is something that you have to use it or lose it,” said Rick Jacobs, head of the 750,000-member Courage Campaign, which has been at the liberal vanguard of several grassroots and online campaigns. “It is time to be bold. What is anybody afraid of?” (SF Chronicle)

To some extent, this is about two competing theories of politics. One says that you have a limited supply of “capital.” Under this model, you can only expect to do so much progress on the legislative front. Gov. Brown is pushing for a gradual and slow movement that prioritizes consensus and getting buy in from as many as possible. On the other hand, progressives tend to favor an idea of politics that promotes efficiency. You get into it what you put in kind of thing. Voters will respect action, even if they don’t get every component right away.

But for now, Speaker Perez and Sen. Steinberg seem to be of the same mind as the Governor. They’re taking it slow for the time being. Steinberg has said that he doesn’t plan on [touching Prop 13 this year, and Speaker Perez thinks this is just the beginning of a larger fight.

Even though Democrats could override Brown’s veto with their two-thirds majority, “a lot of Democrats from more conservative areas don’t want to vote to raise taxes because they know it would kill them in their districts,” said Steve Maviglio, a spokesman for Assembly Speaker John Pérez.

Plus, say Democratic leaders, it is still relatively early in the legislative calendar. Budget negotiations are just beginning.

“C’mon, it’s only the second inning. There’s a lot of time left in the session,” said Maviglio. “We’re moving forward on a lot of bills that are friendly to labor and progressives.

“I would tell some of the people who are saying these things to just relax,” Maviglio said.(SF Chronicle)

Now, perhaps that last sentence could be more eloquently phrased, but Mr. Maviglio speaks of building a long term progressive supermajority in the Legislature. It’s a laudable goal by any Democratic perspective, but getting everybody on the same page isn’t necessarily the easiest task, even within the same party.

Health insurance exchange will facilitate voter registration

by Brian Leubitz

When I moved to California, I got my driver’s license and registered to vote at the same time. Super convenient, except for the written driver test and couple of hours waiting. But, as long as you have folks walking through the door of a government building, why not get them voting?

Well, it turns out that is actually a federal law from back in the Clinton era, and SoS Bowen will be making sure the health care exchanges help register voters too:

Secretary of State Debra Bowen made California the first state to designate its health exchange as a voter registration agency Wednesday but others are expected to follow suit, said Shannan Velayas, Bowen’s spokeswoman.

“This is about making sure that all eligible Californians are offered the chance to register to vote,” Velayas said Thursday.

A 1993 federal law requires states to designate their agencies and offices that provide public assistance or disability services as voter registration agencies, Velayas said.(SacBee)

I don’t think there is any other comment to make other than, “good work all!”