All posts by Brian Leubitz

Yawn, more GOP cheating…Fraudulent voter registration in SoCal

It’s getting a bit tired isn’t it?  In yesterday’s Sac Bee, it was reported that some fraudulent registration applications from their SoCal grassroots people. 

Several GOP voter-registration workers created fake individuals in documents submitted to the California Republican Party, which said Thursday that it discovered the fraudulent activity through an internal review and forwarded its findings to Secretary of State Bruce McPherson.

GOP spokesman Patrick Dorinson said the party caught the undisclosed number of falsified voter affidavits early enough that it avoided registering any fraudulent names with the state. (SacBee 9/1/06)

Uh, yeah, sure you did.  I’m sure you caught all of the fake people, the dead people, etc. You know, that large spike in GOP registration did seem a bit on the large side.  How many of those people really registered?

And Mr. McP says’s he’ll be all over this scandal, just as soon as he’s done campaigning on the state’s dime. Yeah, I’ll buy that promise right after I finish completing my “Facts of Life” Tootie Video Montage.  Which is to say, the 12th of Never.  So, need I mention that Debra is on the Calitics ActBlue page?

You Take the Good, You take the Bad in the CA Legislature

You take them both and there you have the leg session, the leg session, the leg session.  Ok enough reminiscing on 80’s TV shows…The legislative session wrapped up late last night, and to be truthful, I’m not the best source for information about it.  That would be the California Progress Report. As I’ve said before, and I’ll say again, Frank works his tail off to get probably the best coverage of all that’s been happening in the Capitol.  Go Frank!

But back to the closing of the session, it was mixed bag.  Nunez claims it was the most productive of the last few decades, but how many times has that been said in the last few decades?  I’ll snip a bit from Frank and then tell you to go check out his post

he final hours of the session saw final passage of AB 2987, “The Digital Infrastructure and Video Competition Act of 2006,” by the Speaker and Assemblymember Lloyd Levine by a vote of 64 to 5. (CPR 9/1/06)

And that noise you hear? That’s the closing of one more door to protect net neutrality.  From what I understand their is some money for the municipalities who will lose their franchise fees and some protection for local channel broadcasting.  And anyway, bandwidth is cheap now, I can’t imagine any of the cable or telcos fighting really hard to get rid of those. More from Frank:

The session ended with an omnibus flood bill failing passage as it was held in an Assembly Committee by Chair Lois Wolk, a strong proponent of flood control reforms who thought it was poorly drafted and did not take care of much of what needed to be done. Also failing passage was ratification of tribal gaming compacts to increase the number of slot machines by over 19,000 in the state and the prison bills that had earlier been approved by the Senate.

The Speaker gavelled the session to a close before taking up the gaming compacts, so we will likely see them when the next session opens up.  The big question there is the issue of allowing unions into the Indian casinos.  The flood bill failed because it ended up being a patchwork of bills that Perata and the Senate stuck together.  Wolk thought it was better to wait until next session to get this done than deal with a crappy bill.

All in all, an interesting session.  A bunch of stuff was completed and some wasn’t.  SB 840 was passed, we should expect a veto on that soon.  Any other highlights?

Villaraigosa to endorse Phil…finally

(For visibility over the longer post. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Well, it looks like Antonio Villaraigosa thinks that Arnold will sign his “Gloria Romero Educational Reform Act of 2006”, and will officially endorse Phil sometime soon.  This from Kate Folmar of the SJ Merc on her Weintraub-esque blog:

I hear that plans are in the works for LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa to (finally) endorse Phil Angelides Tuesday, perhaps at events in Los Angeles and San Francisco.(SJ Merc On Politics 9/1/06)

My only question? What the F took you so long?

CA Poll HQ Updated, Bond Proposals Slipping

I meant to post a little update about this earlier, but, well, it never happened.  I’ve updated the Calitics Poll HQ to include the recent batch of polls.  I’d also like to point out a great piece of software, NVu.  It’s an open-source competitor to Dreamweaver.  I recently got a Mac, and I thought I was going to have to trudge back to the ol’ PC to get the Poll HQ updated.  Well, I found NVu, and I’m a happy guy.  Yay open source!

Ok, so back to the polls.  Rasmussen, as I reported a few days ago, has Arnold up 48-42.  That’s the same margin as he held at the end of July.  So, at this point when Arnold has outspent Phil by vast margins, stable isn’t bad.

As for the bond measures, it seems they are veering towards the inexorable no vote.  As I’ve mentioned before, propositions tend to drift towards no as the election draws closer.  You heard it here first: at least one of these bonds will not pass.  I actually think 2-3 of them will fail.  I would also not be surprised if all of them failed.  People have begun getting scared about the $43 Billion pricetag on these bonds and how we are going to have to repay them eventually. 

Poll/Prop 1B: Transp. 1C: Housing 1D: Educ 1E: Disaster 84: Water
  Yes No U/DK Yes No U/DK Yes No U/DK Yes No U/DK Yes No U/DK
PPIC
8/30/06
50 38 12 57 32 11 51 39 10 56 35 9 40 45 15
Field
7/28/06
54 27 19 33 42 25 48 37 15 47 33 20 49 31 20
Field
6/5/06
57 24 19 39 38 23 48 34 18 58 25 17 N/a N/a N/a
PPIC
5/06
62 32 6 60 37 3 74 22 4 62 34 4 N/a N/a N/a

Now that doesn’t mean that Tom McClintock (Arnold’s “running mate”) or his far-Right Republican allies will propose actual solutions to the questions posed by our infrastructure and general funding questions.  No, the GOP has gotten really good at saying no. No new taxes, No immigrants, No Spanish, No universal health care, no control on CO2.  No, no, no, no,no!  Well folks, you get what you pay for.  If you pay for a developing world infrastructure, that you will get.

Keith Olbermann and you

(Thanks to BigDog for pointing this out earlier. I wanted to embed the video on the front page. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

I know, I know, this is not California politics in a very busy moment in California politics, but I had to include this.  Keith Olbermann’s lecture on Countdown was one of those moments that you just want to praise every which way.  It was a member of the media actually attempting to take on the administration and call out their folly.  And he was right that civil discource is part of American soceity.  We need to have the discussion and in the end we will be out of Iraq.  It’s just a matter of time, ignoring the subject helps nobody, Mr. Rumsfeld.  And so, I present to you the Olbermann smackdown of Rumsfeld.  Also note that Keith has a new book coming out.  Buy it; it should be a good one.

Greenhouse Emissions Bill AB 32 Looks Certain to Become Law

California appears set to become the first state to actively regulate greenhouse gas emissions. Frank at the C.P.R. has more: (By the way, Frank has been doing some excellent work in the last few weeks covering the end of the session.  He’s running himself ragged to get to cover as much as possible in the Capitol.)

The California State Senate has passed greenhouse gas emission reduction bill AB 32 (Nunez/Pavley) by a vote of 23 to 14 with three abstentions. All 23 votes in favor were cast by Democratic Senators and all 14 votes against the measure were cast by Republicans.

Earlier today it was announced by Speaker of the Assembly Fabian Nunez, Senate President pro Tem Don Perata, and coauthor Fran Pavley that Governor Schwarzenegger was in support of the message. The Governor has hailed this as a bill he was looking forward to sign.(California Progress Report 8/30/06)

The deal includes an optional cap-and-trade provision, which appears likely to happen along with an escape clause that would allow the governor to unilateraly stop the implimentation of the law based on economic factors:

Schwarzenegger had insisted on creating an escape clause that would allow for a delay in the deadlines in case of a natural or economic disaster. He got that. (SF Chron 8/31/06)

I’m still not sure about whether or not there has been a clear definition of what an economic disaster is; I’ll look into whether there are some restrictions on the governor’s power in that area.

In the end, the legislature worked hard to get as many people as possible on board with the plan. They even got PG&E to give its blessing to the deal.  Ultimately, if people choose to stick their head in the ground and disbelieve good science, there’s nothing we can do. 

Republican State Senator Tom McClintock, a candidate for Lieutenant Governor, acknowledged that the climate was in fact warming, but ascribed that to the waxing and waning of the climate cycle and said that the next time we have an ice age, it will go down. He predicted financial ruin for the state and that it would increase the state deficit.(California Progress Report 8/30/06)

If this is a token measure, then so be it.  Somebody has to lead the nation towards a better future.  California has always been that leader and should continue to be so.  We are the worlds’ 5th largest economy, and the effect of our pollution is no trivial matter.  This is a major step towards promoting the reduction of global warming emissions internationally and Speaker Nunez, Assemblywoman Pavley, and Senator Perata should be commended for their work on this bill.

PPIC: Arnold’s gains in the middle

The PPIC released their statewide survey for August tonight.  It’s not the best news ever.

Republican Governor Schwarzenegger leads his Democratic challenger, State Treasurer Phil Angelides, by a 13-point margin among likely voters (45% to 32%). Voter preferences have changed little since one month ago (43% to 30%). Possible explanations for Schwarzenegger’s lead? While 82 percent of Republicans favor Schwarzenegger, only 58 percent of Democrats choose Angelides. Independents are choosing Schwarzenegger over Angelides by a wide margin (42% to 23%). Schwarzenegger’s lead in Republican-leaning areas is commanding – 30 points in the Central Valley and 23 points in the Southern California counties outside of Los Angeles . Angelides’ performance in key Democratic enclaves is less convincing: He leads by 10 points in the San Francisco Bay Area, while Schwarzenegger actually enjoys a slight lead in Los Angeles (41% to 36%). And finally, Democrats (42%) are much less likely than Republicans (58%) to be satisfied with their gubernatorial choices.

The silver lining:
1) Arnold is below 50%
2) Phil will get much of that D support back as people start to pay anttention to the race. That will tighten up the race considerably.

What the Polls Mean and what we do about it

There’s going to be a major poll out tonight at 10PM.  I’ll have that posted as soon as it’s free and clear of restrictions. 

But real quickly, what do these polls mean? What should or shouldn’t we make of them?  I think it’s reasonably clear that Phil is behind here. I have no problem admitting that.  And as Phil showed during the primary, being behind doesn’t mean that you will lose.

What needs to happen to see Phil win? Well, many, many things. First, we need to ensure that people understand who Arnold really is.  Phil’s campaign is doing a decent job with that.

We also need to make sure people know who Phil is, and who he’s not. Part of that is just talking to your friends about him.  Don’t be afraid to talk about politics. Most of the people that are reading this are well-informed.  Share some of that information with friends and family.

So go out there and do some Phil-proselytizing.

Prisons: The Legislature is Missing the Point, We Need Sentencing Reform

Around and around we go.  Schwarzenegger proposes one deal, the Legislature another, but nobody faces the real issue: we have too many prisoners.  We need real sentencing reform.

Democratic legislative leaders Tuesday presented an alternative to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s plans for addressing prison overcrowding, one administration officials said would force county jails to release thousands of inmates by next June.

The four bills would provide $918 million in bond and general fund financing for prison expansion, authorize the state to move 4,500 women to community correctional facilities, offer $25 million in grant money for neighborhood parole programs and allow for voluntary inmate transfers to out-of-state institutions.

But the package falls well short of the $6 billion expansion plan the governor is seeking.(SacBee 8/30/06)

We will never be able to lock up everybody.  Maybe we could look for some alternatives?