All posts by cali_girl_in_texas

Registration changes since the election

I’ve been saving the changes in registration differences in the competitive districts that I track in my regular registration number updates. Here I will show the changes in registration going from the last numbers before the 2008 election to the latest numbers released a few days ago. Here they are in tabulated form. And for the congressional districts, in addition to the 8 Obama-Republican districts, I tossed in CA-04, because the House race there was very close in spite of the considerable Republican advantage in registration and the presidential race, and CA-46, the district of McCain’s closest win of the 11 McCain districts and the only one that he won with less than 50%.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project.

Numbers are over the flip.

CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS

District 10-08 DIFF 02-09 DIFF 03-09 DIFF 05-09 DIFF
CA-03
R+2.19%
R+1.93%
R+1.91%
R+1.85%
CA-04
R+14.88%
R+14.68%
R+14.64%
R+14.69%
CA-24
R+6.40%
R+6.13%
R+6.04%
R+5.99%
CA-25
R+2.37%
R+1.68%
R+1.63%
R+1.52%
CA-26
R+5.57%
R+4.96%
R+4.92%
R+4.83%
CA-44
R+8.25%
R+7.52%
R+7.68%
R+7.77%
CA-45
R+4.60%
R+3.98%
R+3.99%
R+4.27%
CA-46
R+12.16%
R+11.79%
R+11.57%
R+11.47%
CA-48
R+16.12%
R+15.78%
R+15.46%
R+15.37%
CA-50
R+9.20%
R+8.90%
R+8.98%
R+8.87%

STATE SENATE DISTRICTS

District 10-08 DIFF 02-09 DIFF 03-09 DIFF 05-09 DIFF
SD-04
R+11.11%
R+11.05%
R+11.05%
R+11.10%
SD-12
D+13.92%
D+14.32%
D+14.37%
D+14.66%
SD-16
D+16.21%
D+16.53%
D+16.46%
D+16.49%
SD-18
R+16.01%
R+15.70%
R+15.67%
R+15.74%
SD-22
D+43.91%
D+44.21%
D+44.24%
D+44.35%
SD-24
D+31.96%
D+32.46%
D+32.39%
D+32.59%
SD-34
D+8.18%
D+8.63%
D+9.24%
D+9.39%
SD-36
R+17.49%
R+17.11%
R+17.19%
R+17.12%
SD-40
D+16.13%
D+16.84%
D+16.94%
D+17.07%

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICTS

District 10-08 DIFF 02-09 DIFF 03-09 DIFF 05-09 DIFF
AD-03
R+5.44%
R+5.37%
R+5.34%
R+5.45%
AD-05
R+1.23%
R+0.89%
R+0.87%
R+0.87%
AD-07
D+28.72%
D+29.11%
D+29.09%
D+29.09%
AD-09
D+37.61%
D+37.89%
D+37.93%
D+37.99%
AD-10
R+0.43%
R+0.11%
R+0.07%
D+0.01%
AD-15
D+3.96%
D+4.45%
D+4.51%
D+4.57%
AD-20
D+28.16%
D+28.43%
D+28.48%
D+28.44%
AD-21
D+20.26%
D+20.32%
D+20.39%
D+20.52%
AD-23
D+32.24%
D+32.39%
D+32.32%
D+32.29%
AD-25
R+5.51%
R+5.48%
R+5.46%
R+5.51%
AD-26
D+2.31%
D+2.76%
D+2.82%
D+2.83%
AD-30
D+9.81%
D+9.89%
D+9.65%
D+9.69%
AD-31
D+14.62%
D+15.12%
D+15.23%
D+15.30%
AD-33
R+4.81%
R+4.83%
R+4.86%
R+4.77%
AD-35
D+19.86%
D+20.26%
D+20.29%
D+20.34%
AD-36
R+0.05%
D+0.83%
D+0.91%
D+1.18%
AD-37
R+5.95%
R+5.62%
R+5.54%
R+5.47%
AD-38
R+3.76%
R+3.21%
R+3.18%
R+3.06%
AD-47
D+53.60%
D+53.67%
D+53.66%
D+53.67%
AD-50
D+45.03%
D+45.68%
D+45.71%
D+45.87%
AD-63
R+3.11%
R+2.59%
R+2.45%
R+2.37%
AD-64
R+5.98%
R+5.35%
R+5.72%
R+6.03%
AD-65
R+4.54%
R+3.92%
R+3.94%
R+4.82%
AD-68
R+9.27%
R+8.89%
R+8.43%
R+8.36%
AD-70
R+13.94%
R+13.61%
R+13.30%
R+13.16%
AD-74
R+11.11%
R+10.74%
R+10.79%
R+10.65%
AD-75
R+9.23%
R+9.07%
R+9.17%
R+9.08%
AD-76
D+14.91%
D+15.16%
D+15.07%
D+15.09%
AD-78
D+10.97%
D+11.50%
D+11.55%
D+11.62%
AD-80
D+7.82%
D+8.63%
D+8.84%
D+9.09%

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – May 2009 Special Election Edition

(More good stuff. Thanks! – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

With the release of the new registration numbers, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.

Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!

And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock’s less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
37.73%
39.58%
R+1.85
O+0.5
CA-04
Tom McClintock
31.14%
45.83%
R+14.69
M+10.1
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.83%
41.82%
R+5.99
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.77%
39.29%
R+1.52
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.67%
40.50%
R+4.83
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.63%
42.40%
R+7.77
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
37.81%
42.08%
R+4.27
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.40%
44.77%
R+15.37
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.40%
40.27%
R+8.87
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.02%
44.12%
R+11.09
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.60%
32.94%
D+14.66
O+17.6
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.88%
47.62%
R+15.74
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.94%
46.06%
R+17.12
M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.59%
33.10%
D+16.49
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
59.01%
14.66%
D+44.35
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.63%
21.04%
D+32.59
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.84%
33.45%
D+9.39
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.57%
29.50%
D+17.07
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.80%
40.25%
R+5.45
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.90%
38.77%
R+0.87
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.81%
42.32%
R+5.51
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.06%
39.23%
D+2.82
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.28%
36.59%
D+9.69
O+3.9
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.92%
40.69%
R+4.77
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.69%
38.51%
D+1.18
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.87%
41.34%
R+5.47
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.85%
39.91%
R+3.06
O+4.9
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
38.00%
40.37%
R+2.37
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
35.96%
41.99%
R+6.03
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
36.82%
41.64%
R+4.82
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.80%
41.16%
R+8.36
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.20%
43.36%
R+13.16
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.93%
41.58%
R+10.65
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.72%
39.80%
R+9.08
O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.80%
23.71%
D+29.09
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.66%
18.67%
D+37.99
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.33%
39.32%
D+0.01
O+4.0
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.61%
36.04%
D+4.57
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.61%
20.17%
D+28.44
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.27%
26.75%
D+20.52
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.22%
18.93%
D+32.29
O+44.4
AD-31
Juan Arambula
49.08%
33.78%
D+15.80
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.22%
27.88%
D+20.34
O+35.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.92%
11.25%
D+53.67
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
62.00%
16.13%
D+45.87
O+55.9
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.94%
26.85%
D+15.09
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
43.08%
31.46%
D+11.62
O+21.8
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.38%
36.29%
D+9.09
O+20.7

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25

(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65

(V) Other open seat: 68

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – April 2009 edition

(Another great report on these numbers. Thanks! – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.

I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
37.72%
39.63%
R+1.91
O+0.5
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.84%
41.88%
R+6.04
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.72%
39.35%
R+1.63
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.64%
40.56%
R+4.92
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.70%
42.38%
R+7.68
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
37.97%
41.96%
R+3.99
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.41%
44.87%
R+15.46
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.38%
40.36%
R+8.98
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip.

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.05%
44.10%
R+11.05
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.46%
33.09%
D+14.37
O+17.6
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.91%
47.58%
R+15.67
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.94%
46.13%
R+17.19
M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.61%
33.15%
D+16.46
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.98%
14.74%
D+44.24
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.62%
21.13%
D+32.49
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.82%
33.58%
D+9.24
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.59%
29.65%
D+16.94
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.81%
40.15%
R+5.34
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.93%
38.80%
R+0.87
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.84%
42.30%
R+5.46
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.04%
39.22%
D+2.82
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.31%
36.66%
D+9.65
O+3.9
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.91%
40.77%
R+4.86
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.56%
38.65%
D+0.91
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.86%
41.40%
R+5.54
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.84%
40.02%
R+3.18
O+4.9
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.90%
40.35%
R+2.45
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
36.11%
41.83%
R+5.72
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
37.14%
41.08%
R+3.94
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.82%
41.25%
R+8.43
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.19%
43.49%
R+13.30
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.89%
41.68%
R+10.79
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.71%
39.88%
R+9.17
O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.81%
23.72%
D+29.09
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.64%
18.71%
D+37.93
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.32%
39.39%
R+0.07
O+4.0
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
54.23%
22.06%
D+32.17
O+41.2
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.60%
36.09%
D+4.51
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.65%
20.17%
D+18.48
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.22%
26.83%
D+20.39
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.28%
18.96%
D+32.32
O+44.4
AD-31
Juan Arambula
49.07%
33.84%
D+15.23
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.24%
27.95%
D+20.29
O+35.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.93%
11.27%
D+53.66
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.92%
16.21%
D+45.71
O+55.9
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.96%
26.89%
D+15.07
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
43.09%
31.54%
D+11.55
O+21.8
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.33%
36.49%
D+8.84
O+20.7

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25

(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65

(V) Other open seat: 68

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – March 2009 edition

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. With the district results that I found (Senate here and Assembly here), I put in a new column, showing the margin of the 2008 presidential winner in each district, so we can clearly see what our biggest targets are.

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.07%
44.12%
R+11.05
M+12.80
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.46%
33.14%
D+14.32
O+17.64
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.93%
47.63%
R+15.70
M+15.00
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.96%
46.07%
R+17.11
M+14.16

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.67%
33.14%
D+16.53
O+21.35
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.98%
14.77%
D+44.21
O+58.53
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.62%
21.16%
D+32.46
O+41.34
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.68%
34.05%
D+8.63
O+16.81
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.50%
29.66%
D+15.84
O+26.64

Assembly numbers are over the flip…

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.83%
40.20%
R+5.37
M+1.60
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.94%
38.83%
R+0.89
O+4.24
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.84%
42.32%
R+5.48
M+7.90
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.03%
39.27%
D+2.76
O+4.11
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.45%
36.56%
D+9.89
O+4.39
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.86%
40.69%
R+4.83
O+1.39
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.55%
38.72%
D+0.83
O+0.66
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.84%
41.46%
R+5.62
O+3.73
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.84%
40.05%
R+3.21
O+4.86
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.85%
40.44%
R+2.59
O+4.09
AD-64
Brian Nestande
36.26%
41.61%
R+5.35
O+1.79
AD-65
Paul Cook
37.14%
41.06%
R+3.92
M+4.12
AD-68
Van Tran
32.72%
41.61%
R+8.89
M+2.95
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.12%
43.73%
R+13.61
O+3.93
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.88%
41.62%
R+10.74
O+2.16
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.74%
39.81%
R+9.07
O+4.05

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.84%
23.73%
D+29.11
O+43.31
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.63%
18.74%
D+37.89
O+49.15
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.32%
39.43%
R+0.11
O+3.91
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
54.24%
22.10%
D+32.14
O+40.90
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.59%
36.14%
D+4.45
O+16.55
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.62%
20.19%
D+18.43
O+42.28
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.13%
26.81%
D+20.32
O+45.90
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.36%
18.97%
D+32.39
O+44.45
AD-31
Juan Arambula
49.04%
33.92%
D+15.12
O+24.81
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.21%
27.95%
D+20.26
O+35.46
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.95%
11.28%
D+53.67
O+71.90
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.91%
16.23%
D+45.68
O+55.86
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.92%
26.76%
D+15.16
O+34.34
AD-78
Martin Block
43.01%
31.51%
D+11.50
O+11.82
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.25%
36.62%
D+8.63
O+20.68

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65 (There are no open seats in these districts.)

(IV) Other open seats: 25, 68

Analysis of California 2008

Cross-posted at Swing State Project.

Here is my analysis of the 2008 election in my home state of California. As I mentioned in my 50-state analysis, California was a mixed bag on November 4, 2008. The presidential results were anything but disappointing, while we came up short further down the ballot, from the House races to the state legislature and the 12 ballot measures.

I was amazed as I saw polls leading up to Election Day showing Obama up by more than 20 over McCain, and was astonished at the 61-37 Obama blowout that ended up occurring on Election Night (and the calling of the whole Left Coast for Obama, putting him over 270 electoral votes and making him the winner!). I couldn’t wait to check out the county results and see which ones flipped for Obama and which ones were close.

As the final absentee ballots rolled in, I was able to check out the numbers, and see that Obama way outperformed Kerry, winning by 3 million votes and pumping up his national popular vote numbers very nicely. In fact, Obama outperformed every single Democratic presidential candidate except one, scoring the second-best Democratic presidential performance in California’s history after Franklin Roosevelt in 1936. As you can see, Obama gained 1.5 million votes over Kerry, while McCain, who claimed he could compete in California, lost half a million votes from Bush.

2008: Obama 8,274,473; McCain 5,011,781

2004: Kerry 6,745,485; Bush 5,509,826

Looking through the voting histories of the California counties that went to Obama, I found that Obama broke some longtime Republican streaks in quite a few counties. Obama won a majority of the vote in two counties that last voted Democratic presidentially with more than 50% of the vote in 1976, Merced and Trinity.

Most significant are the six counties that in 2008 voted Democratic presidentially with more than 50% for the first time since 1964: Nevada, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Ventura

And finally, San Diego County, which last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate with a majority of the vote in 1944, also delivered a majority of the vote to Obama!

Obama also came close to winning majorities, instead winning close pluralities, in Butte, Fresno, and Stanislaus Counties. The last Democrat to win a majority in Butte and Fresno was Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and the last Democrat to win a majority in Stanislaus was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Now I will do a tour of the state, north to south. I will give a bit of an overall summary of California’s counties: Obama improved upon Kerry’s performance in all 58 of them. The amount of improvement varies from region to region, and the numbers are over the flip.

North Coast

Counties = Del Norte, Humboldt, Mendocino, Lake, Sonoma

Combined population = 800,932

2004 = Kerry 63%, Bush 34% (D+29)

2008 = Obama 69%, McCain 28% (D+41)

Obama improved considerably over Kerry’s margins in this part of the state, growing Democratic margins in Humboldt, Mendocino, Lake, and Sonoma, while cutting McCain’s margin in Del Norte County to half of Bush’s. These growing Democratic numbers in this formerly swingy region (CA-01 changed parties 4 times in the 1990s alone) suggests this region will continue to trend Democratic for the foreseeable future.

Northern Mountain

Counties = Butte, El Dorado, Lassen, Modoc, Nevada, Placer, Plumas, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Tehama, Trinity

Combined population = 1,205,952

2004 = Bush 61%, Kerry 38% (R+23)

2008 = McCain 54%, Obama 44% (R+10)

Our next stop is this sprawling, low-density region. I figured McCain would crush Obama in this small town-heavy region, even overperforming Bush’s numbers. When I examined the counties in this region, all of which went for Bush in 2004, I was shocked. Not only did McCain underperform Bush here, he actually got FEWER votes than Bush did. Obama even won 3 counties outright: Butte, Nevada, and Trinity. This region will likely continue to be considerably Republican, but Democrats can become more competitive here if they grow their margins in Butte County (home of UC Chico) and the Tahoe region. Some of this area, most notably Placer, is becoming more like suburban Sacramento and may also continue to trend Democratic. These numbers show that we can win here, and if we can find more Charlie Browns, we might be able to pull off wins in this region, namely Congressional District 4 (which will very likely be open in 2010 when McClintock runs for governor) and Senate District 4 (which will be open in 2010 due to term limits). A couple of Assembly seats here will be open in 2010 as well. Let’s jump-start that 58-county strategy!

San Francisco Bay Area

Counties = Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano

Combined population = 6,791,908

2004 = Kerry 69%, Bush 29% (D+40)

2008 = Obama 74%, McCain 24% (D+50)

A very blue region in a very blue state just keeps on getting bluer with each election. Republicans will be extremely lucky if they can get even a third of the vote here again! In addition to overwhelming Democratic numbers, every single Congressional, State Senate, and State Assembly district is in Democratic hands, almost parallel to the shutout Republicans suffered on the House level in New England. Only if the Republicans return to being the party of Earl Warren and Hiram Johnson will they have a prayer of winning here again. The funny thing is that this region used to be a very Republican region in a very Republican state back in the early 20th century, and San Mateo County was the origin of powerful Republican governor Hiram Johnson and the Progressive movement in California, which Republicans of that time embraced. The region shifted strongly to the Democrats in the 1950s, with 1956 being the last time San Francisco and Alameda Counties voted Republican presidentially, and has not looked back since.

Sacramento Valley

Counties = Amador, Calaveras, Colusa, Glenn, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Sutter, Yolo, Yuba

Combined population = 2,606,646

2004 = Bush 51%, Kerry 48% (R+3)

2008 = Obama 56%, McCain 42% (D+14)

This is a swing area, with Democratic strongholds in the city of Sacramento and Yolo County, home of UC Davis, and Republican strongholds in the Sacramento suburbs (though their majorities here are getting smaller and smaller by the year), and Amador, Calaveras, Colusa, Glenn, Sutter, and Yuba Counties. San Joaquin County, the second-biggest county in the region, has been a Republican-leaning county in recent history until the influx of people from the Bay Area and the overall Democratic trend of suburbs near the Bay Area, culminating in a double-digit win for Obama in the county and the region. This region is also trending Democratic on the congressional and state legislature level, giving victories to Democratic Congressman Jerry McNerney, and Democratic Assemblywomen Alyson Huber and Joan Buchanan.

Eastern Mountain/Yosemite

Counties = Alpine, Inyo, Mariposa, Mono, Tuolumne

Combined population = 108,338

2004 = Bush 58%, Kerry 40% (R+18)

2008 = McCain 53%, Obama 44% (R+9)

Like the northern mountain region, McCain got fewer votes here than Bush did and Democrats saw a modest improvement from 2004 here. The 2 Democratic counties, Alpine and Mono, used to be two of the strongest Republican counties, even voting for Bush in 2000, but an influx of young people from the San Francisco area to work on the ski resorts shifted these counties to Kerry and even more for Obama. If we can get a similar trend in the other counties, then this region too may become Democratic before long.

Central Coast

Counties = Monterey, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz, Ventura

Combined population = 2,275,917

2004 = Kerry 54%, Bush 45% (D+9)

2008 = Obama 60%, McCain 37% (D+23)

This region was normally divided in half, with the northern half of the region (Monterey, San Benito, Santa Cruz) leaning strongly Democratic and the southern half (San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura) leaning Republican aside from the Democratic stronghold of Santa Barbara. Now that barrier has been shattered, with all 6 counties (yes, including San Luis Obispo!) going for Obama. This provides us with great opportunities to expand our majority in the upcoming State Assembly elections in 2010 and the State Senate elections in 2012. You will also notice that this region is generally the bellwether region for determining how California will go in statewide/presidential elections. Not surprisingly, the bellwether county of San Benito is also in this region.

San Joaquin Valley

Counties = Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Stanislaus, Tulare

Combined population = 3,270,343

2004 = Bush 62%, Kerry 37% (R+25)

2008 = McCain 52%, Obama 46% (R+6)

Here is another Republican stronghold, though unlike the mountain regions, this one is more populous, with population centers in Fresno and Bakersfield. Every county here was Republican in 2004, and then Obama punched holes in the Republican firewall, winning Merced and Stanislaus Counties, as well as the big prize of Fresno County. We still have work to do here on the state level though, since we lost the 30th Assembly district last year. Though maybe with that Yacht Dog Nicole Parra gone and the Democratic trend here, we may have a chance to regain that district in 2010.

Southland

Counties = Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego

Combined population = 20,951,621

2004 = Kerry 52%, Bush 46% (D+5)

2008 = Obama 59%, McCain 38% (D+21)

And finally, our tour ends in the Southland, the most populous region in the state, which alone holds more than half of the state’s population in a mere 6 counties and is home to the state’s 2 largest cities, L.A. and San Diego, and the state’s 3 most populous counties (L.A., Orange, and San Diego). As recently as 2004, L.A. and Imperial Counties were the only Democratic counties in the region. Obama changed that, blowing even more holes in Republican strongholds, turning 3 more counties blue with majorities in Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego, and falling just two points short in Orange County, nearly staging a complete sweep in this former Republican stronghold. That spells trouble for certain Republican Congressmen/women, as well as State Senators and Assemblymembers, some of which are term-limited in 2010 and/or scored weak wins in 2008. Probably the most exciting part of California to watch in the 2010 elections will be right here in the Southland. My hometown of Rancho Cucamonga in San Bernardino County went for Obama. I can only hope it and many more cities in the region continue to trend to the good guys! If the Democrats have a lockhold on the population centers in Northern and Southern California, then there will be ZERO chance of Republicans winning this big prize again!

Whew! Now that I’ve finished the marathon tour of my big, beautiful home state, I can give the region-by-region breakdown of Democratic improvements from 2004 to 2008, ranked from the smallest shift to the largest shift. Here they are:

Eastern Mountain/Yosemite: 9%

San Francisco Bay Area: 10%

North Coast: 12%

Northern Mountain: 13%

Central Coast: 14%

Southland: 16%

Sacramento Valley: 17%

San Joaquin Valley: 19%

Every region shifted considerably more Democratic, though the biggest shifts occurred in the regions that up through 2004 were swing or Republican-leaning areas. These are the areas we need to target heavily to make the biggest gains.

With some legislative seats open in 2010 due to term limits, we can take some of them and further inflate our Democratic majority in this state. If the California Democratic Party, with the new fresh faces of Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento) and Assembly Speaker Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles) actually invests in the legislative races, we can make major gains and have no more disappointments that we had in 2008’s U.S. House and legislative races, where Democrats, especially in swing districts in Southern California, underperformed Obama. Also, with enough investment, we will hopefully also have no more disappointments in the ballot measures such as Prop H8. And a suggestion I have for reforming our dysfunctional ballot measure system is to not have any repeat ballot measures such as Prop 73 (2005)/85 (2006)/4 (2008) and also require a supermajority (say 60%) on passing some measures. And of course we need major reforms in the legislative system, such as doing away with the ridiculous 2/3 rule for taxes and budgets.

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010

It is never too early to look ahead to the next election, and I am doing that with my handy dandy registration tables for the State Senate and State Assembly districts with term-limited and possibly vulnerable incumbents (in italics). Without further Apu, here are the numbers, complete with links to the complete updated list of registration numbers in each district.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project, Democracy for California, and my blog.

And I might as well use this diary to promote my new 2010 California Race Tracker website. Anyone is free to join in and contribute information that will be useful for us going into the 2010 elections.

Edit by Brian: Check the flip for some great info.

SENATE

8 incumbents are term-limited in 2010, 4 Republicans and 4 Democrats. I am also watching Lou Correa in the 34th district due to his razor-thin win in 2006 after recounts. The 12th district has the best chance of flipping to us, though if we work very hard in the 4th, like Charlie Brown in CA-04, we may have a chance here too.

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.07%
44.18%
R+11.11
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.33%
33.41%
D+13.92
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.81%
47.82%
R+16.01
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.88%
46.37%
R+17.49

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.60%
33.39%
D+16.21
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.88%
14.97%
D+13.91
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.40%
21.44%
D+31.96
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.53%
34.35%
D+8.18
SD-40
Denise Moreno Ducheny
46.25%
30.12%
D+16.13

ASSEMBLY

17 Assemblymembers are term-limited in 2010, 6 Republicans and 11 Democrats. I am also including the 6 new freshmen (2 GOP, 4 DEM) that were elected by close margins, and 6 reelected Assemblymembers (all GOP) that won by close margins (though Nestande in the 64th was unopposed, the GOP registration advantage is small).

Republicans (14)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.82%
40.26%
R+5.44
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.77%
39.00%
R+1.23
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.88%
42.39%
R+5.51
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
41.90%
39.59%
D+2.31
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.48%
36.67%
D+9.81
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.93%
40.74%
R+4.81
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.20%
39.25%
R+0.05
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.76%
41.71%
R+5.95
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.65%
40.41%
R+3.76
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.69%
40.80%
R+3.11
AD-64
Brian Nestande
36.04%
42.02%
R+5.98
AD-65
Paul Cook
36.93%
41.47%
R+4.54
AD-68
Van Tran
32.63%
41.90%
R+9.27
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.05%
43.99%
R+13.94

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.72%
24.00%
D+28.72
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.53%
18.92%
D+37.61
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.18%
39.61%
R+0.43
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
53.81%
22.54%
D+31.27
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.41%
36.45%
D+3.96
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.53%
20.37%
D+18.16
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.17%
26.91%
D+20.26
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.42%
19.18%
D+32.24
AD-31
Juan Arambula
48.90%
34.28%
D+14.62
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.05%
28.19%
D+19.86
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.96%
11.36%
D+53.60
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.62%
16.59%
D+45.03
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.92%
27.01%
D+14.91
AD-78
Martin Block
42.86%
31.89%
D+10.97
AD-80
Manuel Perez
44.99%
37.17%
D+7.82

Since it’s never too early to prepare for the next election, we should get started on targeting vulnerable districts right away. The 26th and 30th were close heartbreakers for us, but hopefully with more support from the CDP and national Dems, we can take them back.

The 37th was another close race, but fortunately Audra Strickland is term-limited out, so we have a better chance at a pickup here, and can strengthen our presence in this part of the state and hopefully take down Audra’s husband Tony in 2012. (I know the districts will have new configurations in 2012, and I intend to map out redistricting possibilities for the next decade later.) The 36th is edging closer and closer to a Dem edge in registration and with enough support we can pick this one up. The 38th is also ripe for the picking.

Other areas ripe for the picking include AD-33 on the Central Coast, and in the Inland Empire/Riverside County districts 63-65. My normally Republican-leaning hometown of Rancho Cucamonga is in the 63rd Assembly District and voted for Obama this year, so we have a real chance of making big gains in this part of the Southland. I can’t wait for 2010!

California Race Chart (Part 3 of 3: House/State Legislature Races B)

Here is Part 3, the last part of my analysis of this fall’s elections in California, which will cover the races for the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly seats in Southern California, and summarize which races we need to win.

Here is Part 1, which covered the presidential race and the 12 ballot measures: https://calitics.com/showDiary….

Here is Part 2, which covered the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly races in Northern and Central California: https://calitics.com/showDiary….

Cross-posted at Swing State Project: http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Incumbents are in boldface. In the case of open seats, the party of the retiring incumbent is listed first without boldface.

U.S. House (Composition: 34 Democrats, 19 Republicans)

CA-22 (Bakersfield): McCarthy (R) – unopposed

CA-23 (Southern Central Coast): Capps (D)

CA-24 (Inner Santa Barbara/Ventura): Gallegly (R)

CA-25 (Palmdale, Big Empty): McKeon (R)

CA-27 (Western San Fernando Valley): Sherman (D)

CA-28 (Eastern San Fernando Valley): Berman (D) – unopposed

CA-29 (Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena): Schiff (D)

CA-30 (Malibu, Beverly Hills): Waxman (D) – only faces a write-in candidate

CA-31 (Hollywood): Becerra (D) – unopposed

CA-32 (Covina, Baldwin Park): Solis (D) – unopposed

CA-33 (Culver City): Watson (D)

CA-34 (Downtown L.A.): Roybal-Allard (D)

CA-35 (South Central): Waters (D)

CA-36 (Beach Cities): Harman (D)

CA-37 (South Central, Long Beach): Richardson (D) – opposed only by minor party candidates

CA-38 (Southeastern L.A. suburbs): Napolitano (D) – opposed only by a Libertarian

CA-39 (Southeastern L.A. County): Linda Sánchez (D)

CA-40 (Northern Orange County): Royce (R)

CA-43 (Ontario, San Bernardino): Baca (D)

CA-47 (Anaheim, Santa Ana): Loretta Sanchez (D)

CA-48 (Central Orange County, including Irvine): Campbell (R)

CA-49 (Temecula, Oceanside): Issa (R)

CA-51 (Imperial County, southern SD suburbs): Filner (D)

CA-53 (San Diego): Davis (D)

Races to watch:

CA-26 (Northeastern L.A. suburbs): David Dreier (R) vs. Russ Warner (D), Ted Brown (L)

Registration: R+7.73%

Profile: This is my home turf, in the northeastern L.A. suburbs. It was drawn to be red, but has been purpling recently, with a Cook PVI of only R+4. Warner is a tough challenger, though he’s at a huge cash disadvantage, 40:1 last I checked.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Likely Dreier

CA-41 (Most of San Bernardino County): Jerry Lewis (R) vs. Tim Prince (D)

Registration: R+11.96%

Profile: While it’s unlikely this district will flip, it will be interesting to see how Prince’s challenges on Lewis’s dealings with earmarks will go. I noticed this district now has a 3-star rating on DC Political Report, meaning this race will be mildly entertaining.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Strong Lewis

CA-42 (Chino, Brea): Gary Miller (R) vs. Edwin Chau (D)

Registration: R+18.28%

Profile: Here is another solidly Republican district with a Republican incumbent that could get into hot water over corruption, in this case steering funds toward an OC tollway ( http://downwithtyranny.blogspo… ), and this race has a 3-star rating on DC Political also.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Strong Miller

CA-44 (Riverside, Corona, San Clemente): Ken Calvert (R) vs. Bill Hedrick (D)

Registration: R+10.89%

Profile: I’m beginning to sound like a broken record, but here we go again: strong GOP district, GOP incumbent possibly in trouble over earmarks ( http://www.politickerca.com/al… ). Hedrick’s only real problem is money.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Strong Calvert

CA-45 (Most of Riverside County): Mary Bono Mack (R) vs. Julie Bornstein (D)

Registration: R+5.80%

Profile: While Bono Mack has seen this challenge coming, significantly outraising Bornstein, we still have a shot here from increased Latino turnout in the Coachella Valley and the highly contested AD-80 race, since that district partially overlaps this one.

9/19/2008 Outlook: Strong Bono Mack

CA-46 (Costa Mesa, Palos Verdes, Avalon): Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Debbie Cook (D), Ernst Gasteiger (L), Tom Lash (G)

Registration: R+13.65%

Profile: Here we are in yet another strongly Republican district, only here we have a strong Democratic challenger in Huntington Beach mayor Debbie Cook. Some pundits are finally getting around to looking at this race, with Charlie Cook now rating it “Likely Republican” ( http://www.dailykos.com/story/… ), ( http://www.politickerca.com/al… ) and DC Political giving it a 4-star rating, meaning there is going to be considerable entertainment in this race. Here are a couple of totally awesome interviews with Mayor Cook, at Open Left ( http://openleft.com/showDiary…. ) and TPM ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v… ).

09/19/2008 Outlook: Likely Rohrabacher

CA-50 (Northern San Diego suburbs): Brian Bilbray (R) vs. Nick Leibham (D), Wayne Dunlap (L)

Registration: R+11.23%

Profile: Here’s the old seat of the corrupt Uncle Duke, now held by his protégé Bilbray. The DCCC has targeted this race ( http://www.dccc.org/page/conte… ), and Leibham has been visible. If he can strongly articulate an agenda, then we will have ourselves a race here.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Likely Bilbray

CA-52 (Eastern San Diego suburbs): Duncan D. Hunter (R) vs. Mike Lumpkin (D), Michael Benoit (L) – vacated by Duncan Hunter (R)

Registration: R+13.39%

Profile: Lumpkin is a great challenger from what I heard ( https://calitics.com/showDi… ), though we still have a battle on our hands, since most voters that pulled the lever for Hunter in the primary thought they were voting for his retiring father and Lumpkin will need more cash here.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Strong Hunter

STATE SENATE (District size: ~846,791) (Composition: 25 Democrats, 15 Republicans)

Safe:

SD-17 (High Desert): George Runner (R)

SD-21 (Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena): Carol Liu (D) – vacated by Jack Scott (D)

SD-23 (West Side L.A., Oxnard): Fran Pavley (D) – vacated by Sheila Kuehl (D)

SD-25 (South Central, Palos Verdes): Roderick Wright (D) – vacated by Edward Vincent (D)

SD-27 (Long Beach, Avalon): Alan Lowenthal (D)

SD-29 (Eastern L.A. suburbs): Bob Huff (R) – vacated by Bob Margett (R)

SD-31 (Inland Empire, Riverside): Robert Dutton (R)

SD-33 (Most of inland Orange County): Mimi Walters (R) – vacated by Dick Ackerman (R)

SD-35 (Coastal Orange County): Tom Harman (R)

SD-37 (Most of Riverside County): John Benoit (R) – vacated by Jim Battin (R)

SD-39 (San Diego): Christine Kehoe (D)

District to watch:

SD-19 (Southern Central Coast, western L.A. suburbs): Tony Strickland (R) vs. Hannah-Beth Jackson (D) – vacated by Tom McClintock (R)

Registration: R+1.96%

Profile: Here is McClintock’s district, which we have a very good chance of picking up, with Ventura County recently obtaining a Democratic advantage in registration and with Jackson maintaining high visibility throughout the district ( http://tinyurl.com/6ehde6 ).

09/19/2008 Outlook: Toss-up

STATE ASSEMBLY (District size: ~423,388) (Composition: 48 Democrats, 32 Republicans)

Safe:

AD-35 (Santa Barbara, Oxnard): Pedro Nava (D)

AD-38 (Santa Clarita): Cameron Smyth (R)

AD-39 (San Fernando): Felipe Fuentes (D)

AD-40 (San Fernando Valley, including Van Nuys): Bob Blumenfield (D) – vacated by Lloyd Levine (D)

AD-41 (Oxnard, Malibu, Santa Monica): Julia Brownley (D)

AD-42 (Beverly Hills, West Hollywood): Michael Feuer (D)

AD-43 (Burbank, Glendale): Paul Krekorian (D)

AD-44 (Pasadena): Anthony Portantino (D)

AD-45 (East L.A.): Kevin de León (D)

AD-46 (East L.A., Huntington Park): John Pérez (D) – vacated by Fabian Núñez (D)

AD-47 (Culver City): Karen Bass (D)

AD-48 (Part of South Central L.A.): Mike Davis (D)

AD-49 (Inner Northeastern suburbs of L.A.): Mike Eng (D)

AD-50 (Bellflower): Hector De La Torre (D) – unopposed

AD-51 (Inglewood, Hawthorne): Curren Price (D)

AD-52 (Compton): Isadore Hall (D) – vacated by Mervyn Dymally (D)

AD-53 (Beach Cities): Ted Lieu (D)

AD-54 (Palos Verdes, Long Beach, Avalon): Bonnie Lowenthal (D) – vacated by Betty Karnette (D)

AD-55 (Carson, Long Beach): Warren Furutani (D)

AD-56 (Norwalk, Buena Park): Tony Mendoza (D)

AD-57 (Covina, Baldwin Park): Ed Hernandez (D)

AD-58 (Inner Eastern suburbs of L.A.): Charles Calderon (D)

AD-59 (Parts of L.A. and San Bernardino Counties): Anthony Adams (R)

AD-60 (Western Inland Empire): Curt Hagman (R) – vacated by Bob Huff (R)

AD-61 (Pomona, Ontario): Norma Torres (D) – vacated by Nell Soto (D)

AD-62 (San Bernardino, Fontana): Wilmer Carter (D) – unopposed

AD-63 (Northern and Eastern Inland Empire): Bill Emmerson (R)

AD-64 (Riverside, Palm Desert): Brian Nestande (R) – unopposed – vacated by John Benoit (R)

AD-65 (Yucca Valley, Big Bear): Paul Cook (R)

AD-66 (Temecula, Riverside): Kevin Jeffries (R)

AD-67 (Huntington Beach): Jim Silva (R)

AD-68 (Garden Grove, Costa Mesa): Van Tran (R)

AD-69 (Anaheim, Santa Ana): Jose Solorio (D)

AD-70 (Central Orange County): Chuck DeVore (R)

AD-71 (Corona, part of inland Orange County): Jeff Miller (R) – unopposed – vacated by Todd Spitzer (R)

AD-72 (Inland Northern Orange County): Michael Duvall (R)

AD-73 (San Clemente, Oceanside): Diane Harkey (R) – vacated by Mimi Walters (R)

AD-74 (Coastal Northern San Diego suburbs): Martin Garrick (R)

AD-75 (Inner Northern San Diego suburbs): Nathan Fletcher (R) – vacated by George Plescia (R)

AD-76 (Northern San Diego City): Lori Saldaña (D)

AD-77 (Most of inland San Diego County): Joel Anderson (R)

AD-79 (Southern San Diego City, Imperial Beach): Mary Salas (D)

Districts to watch:

AD-36 (Lancaster, Palmdale): Steve Knight (R) vs. Linda Jones (D) – vacated by Sharon Runner (R)

Registration: R+2.85%

Profile: While this is not a likely pickup, Jones may make this a race due to the shrinking Republican registration advantage.

9/19/2008 Outlook: Lean Knight

AD-37 (Most of Ventura, small part of L.A.): Audra Strickland (R) vs. Ferial Masry (D)

Registration: R+7.25%

Profile: This district partly overlaps SD-19 and in fact Audra Strickland is Tony Strickland’s wife (and they aren’t related to the governor of Ohio). If Hannah-Beth Jackson does well here, her GOTV efforts could spill over into this race.

9/19/2008 Outlook: Strong Strickland

AD-78 (Inner eastern suburbs of San Diego): John McCann (R) vs. Martin Block (D) – vacated by Shirley Horton (R)

Registration: D+10.48%

Profile: Block has the advantage in this race thanks to the D’s advantage in party registration.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Lean Block

AD-80 (Imperial County, eastern Riverside County): Gary Jeandron (R) vs. Manuel Perez (D) – vacated by Bonnie Garcia (R)

Registration: D+11.22%

Profile: Perez is doing very well here, and a recent poll gave him a double-digit lead. Hopefully his good performance here will spill over into CA-45, which partly overlaps this district.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Lean Perez

That’s it for all the California races. Now I will cover what we need to zero in on to win this fall, and also include how we should vote.

Ballot measures

High Priority

#1: Prop 1A: YES YES YES YES YES!!!!!

#2: Prop 6: NO NO NO NO NO!!!!!

#3: Prop 4: NO NO NO NO NO!!!!!

#4: Prop 8: NO NO NO NO NO!!!!!

#5: Prop 7: No

#6: Prop 10: No

Medium Priority

#7: Prop 2: Yes

#8: Prop 5: Undecided

#9: Prop 11: Leaning No

#10: Prop 9: No

Low Priority

#11: Prop 3: Yes

#12: Prop 12: Yes

Our priorities in the House

#1: CA-04

#2: CA-46

#3: CA-26

#4: CA-45

#5: CA-50

#6: CA-52

#7: CA-44

#8: CA-42

#9: CA-41

Our priorities in the Assembly

#1: AD-15

#2: AD-80

#3: AD-78

#4: AD-10

#5: AD-26

#6: AD-36

#7: AD-37

#8: AD-30

To summarize, if we keep CA-11 and win CA-04, we will have 35 Democrats and 18 Republicans in our House delegation. If we win SD-19, we will have 26 Democrats and 14 Republicans. If we win all the toss-up/Dem-leaning Assembly races, we will have 53 Democrats and 27 Republicans, just one short of 2/3. We’d need at least one of the 36th or 37th districts to get us there.

California Race Chart (Part 2 of 3: House/State Legislature Races A)

Here is Part 2 of my analysis of this fall’s elections in California, which will cover the races for the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly seats in Northern and Central California. Part 3 tomorrow will cover the races in Southern California.

Here is the link to Part 1, which covered the presidential race and the 12 ballot measures: https://calitics.com/showDiary….

Cross-posted at Swing State Project: http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Incumbents are in boldface. In the case of open seats, the party of the retiring incumbent is listed first without boldface.

U.S. HOUSE (Composition: 34 Democrats, 19 Republicans)

Safe:

CA-01 (North Coast): Thompson (D)

CA-02 (Northern Sacramento Valley): Herger (R)

CA-03 (Sacramento suburbs): Lungren (R)

CA-05 (Sacramento): Matsui (D)

CA-06 (Northern SF Bay): Woolsey (D)

CA-07 (Northeast SF Bay): George Miller (D)

CA-08 (San Francisco): Pelosi (D)

CA-09 (Berkeley, Oakland): Lee (D)

CA-10 (Inner East SF Bay): Tauscher (D)

CA-12 (Lower SF Peninsula): Speier (D)

CA-13 (Southern East Bay): Stark (D)

CA-14 (Silicon Valley): Eshoo (D)

CA-15 (Santa Clara, Cupertino): Honda (D)

CA-16 (San Jose): Lofgren (D)

CA-17 (Northern Central Coast): Farr (D)

CA-18 (Upper Central Valley): Cardoza (D) – unopposed

CA-19 (Yosemite, part of Fresno): Radanovich (R) – unopposed

CA-20 (Fresno, part of Bakersfield): Costa (D)

CA-21 (Tulare): Nunes (R)

Now for the races to watch:

CA-04 (Northeast, including Tahoe): Tom McClintock (R) vs. Charlie Brown (D), Paul Netto (L) – vacated by John Doolittle (R)

Registration: R+16.00%

Profile: As a lot of people already know by now, there is a high-profile battle going on here to replace the disgraced John Do-Little (R). Fighting Democrat Charlie Brown came within a few percentage points of knocking off Do-Little in 2006 and is back again, this time facing carpetbagger Tom McClintock, whose State Senate district is 400 miles away from the 4th. In such a strongly Republican district, especially in a Presidential year, one would normally give the Republican a leg up, but Charlie has been doing fantastically, maintaining a huge cash advantage over McClintock, and polls have shown him competitive.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up

CA-11 (San Joaquin County and parts of East Bay): Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Dean Andal (R)

Registration: R+2.41%

Profile: This was a pickup for us in the House in 2006, and the GOP hoped to make it one of their highest priorities, pinning their hopes on Andal. Well, now it looks like those hopes have fizzled. Andal is now in hot water over negotiations for a new San Joaquin Delta College campus ( http://www.capitolweekly.net/a… ), and the claims are coming from evil liberals registered Republican and former Andal supporter Ted Simas, a SJDC board member. The NRCC has also pulled funding from the district, meaning that we can breathe a little easier here and devote funds to CA-04 and elsewhere.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Lean McNerney

STATE SENATE (District size: ~846,791) (Composition: 25 Democrats, 15 Republicans)

Safe:

SD-01 (Northeast, including Tahoe and Mother Lode): Dave Cox (R)

SD-03 (North Bay, part of San Francisco): Mark Leno (D) – vacated by Carole Migden (D)

SD-05 (Sacramento River Delta): Lois Wolk (D) – vacated by Michael Machado (D)

SD-07 (Most of Contra Costa County): Mark DeSaulnier (D) – vacated by Tom Torlakson (D)

SD-09 (Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond): Loni Hancock (D) – vacated by Don Perata (D)

SD-11 (Silicon Valley, most of Santa Cruz County): Joe Simitian (D)

SD-13 (Most of Santa Clara County including San Jose): Elaine Alquist (D)

SD-15 (Central Coast, part of Santa Clara County): Abel Maldonado (R)

STATE ASSEMBLY (District size: ~423,388) (Composition: 48 Democrats, 32 Republicans)

AD-01 (North Coast): Wesley Chesbro (D) – vacated by Patty Berg (D)

AD-02 (Sacramento Valley): Jim Nielsen (R) – vacated by Doug LaMalfa (R)

AD-03 (Northeast): Dan Logue (R) – vacated by Rick Keene (R)

AD-04 (Tahoe): Ted Gaines (R) – unopposed

AD-05 (Northern Sacramento suburbs): Roger Niello (R)

AD-06 (North Bay): Jared Huffman (D)

AD-07 (Napa Valley): Noreen Evans (D)

AD-08 (Sacramento River Delta): Mariko Yamada (D) – vacated by Lois Wolk (D)

AD-09 (Sacramento): Dave Jones (D)

AD-11 (Northern Contra Costa County): Tom Torlakson (D) – vacated by Mark DeSaulnier (D)

AD-12 (Western San Francisco): Fiona Ma (D)

AD-13 (Eastern San Francisco): Tom Ammiano (D) – vacated by Mark Leno (D)

AD-14 (Berkeley, Richmond): Nancy Skinner (D) – unopposed – vacated by Loni Hancock (D)

AD-16 (Oakland): Sandré Swanson (D)

AD-17 (Stockton, Merced): Cathleen Galgiani (D)

AD-18 (Eastern Oakland suburbs): Mary Hayashi (D)

AD-19 (Most of San Mateo County): Gerald Hill (D) – vacated by Gene Mullin (D)

AD-20 (Southern East Bay): Alberto Torrico (D)

AD-21 (Silicon Valley): Ira Ruskin (D)

AD-22 (Western San Jose): Paul Fong (D) – vacated by Sally Lieber (D)

AD-23 (Downtown San Jose): Joe Coto (D)

AD-24 (Southern San Jose): Jim Beall (D)

AD-25 (Mother Lode, Yosemite): Tom Berryhill (R)

AD-27 (Northern Central Coast): Bill Monning (D) – vacated by John Laird (D)

AD-28 (Inner Central Coast region): Anna Caballero – unopposed

AD-29 (Eastern Fresno): Michael Villines (R)

AD-31 (Western Fresno): Juan Arambula (D)

AD-32 (Bakersfield): Jean Fuller (R)

AD-33 (Part of southern Central Coast): Sam Blakeslee (R)

AD-34 (Big Empty): Connie Conway (R) – vacated by Bill Maze (R)

Now, for the races to watch:

AD-10 (Eastern Sacramento suburbs): Jack Sieglock (R) vs. Alyson Huber (D), Janice Bonser (L) – vacated by Alan Nakanishi (R)

Registration: R+1.97%

Profile: You know you’re in trouble when the interior voice of your own party is voicing great concern over a seat, in this case, the California Yacht Republican Party’s voice Jon Fleischman being concerned over the 10th Assembly district ( https://calitics.com/showDiary…. ). What was once a 6% Republican advantage in registration has shrunk to a 2% advantage, and Sieglock had a much tougher time in the primary than Huber. If we have a really good GOTV, we can count on wins here and elsewhere to put us at 2/3!

9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up

AD-15 (Inner East Bay): Abram Wilson (R) vs. Joan Buchanan (D) – vacated by Guy Houston (R)

Registration: D+1.31%

Profile: Like the 10th, the Republican candidate in this one survived a really tough primary while the Democrat cruised through and is sitting pretty on a comfortable cash advantage. With a well-oiled turnout machine, we can win here, and if we do, we will shut out Republicans in every legislative seat in the Bay Area! A recent poll has Buchanan in the lead.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Lean Buchanan

AD-26 (Stockton, Modesto): Bill Berryhill (R) vs. John Eisenhut (D) – vacated by Greg Aghazarian (R)

Registration: D+1.99%

Profile: While this district has trended blue also, it will be a bit more competitive for us than the 10th and 15th. Eisenhut is a local almond farmer and fits the district well, while Berryhill is counting on name ID from his brother Tom in the neighboring 25th district and his father, who represented this area in the state legislature in the 1960s, to win.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up

AD-30 (Southern San Joaquin Valley): Fran Florez (D) vs. Danny Gilmore (R) – vacated by Nicole Parra (D)

Registration: D+9.15%

Profile: Normally this district is not competitive, but the polarizing Yacht Dog Parra made the past 3 elections in this district closer than they should have been. Fortunately, she’s on her way out, and Shafter Mayor Fran Florez, Sen. Dean Florez’s mother, looks to be in a comfortable position to keep this seat in our column. The fact that voters in the Central Valley are fleeing the GOP ( http://www.istockanalyst.com/a… ) further adds to Florez’s advantage.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Likely Florez

Well, that’s it for the NorCal and CenCal races. Tomorrow, look for an analysis of the SoCal races, as well as a summary of the races we need to zero in on to win this fall.

California Race Chart (Part 1 of 3: Statewide Races)

As always, good stuff

Here is my analysis of this fall’s elections in California, broken up into 3 parts. Part 1 will cover the presidential race and the ballot measures, and the other two will be on the Congressional and State Legislature races; Part 2 Northern/Central California and Part 3 Southern California.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project: http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Here is the most recent registration data: http://sos.ca.gov/elections/ro…

Here is the list of candidates that will appear on the ballot: http://sos.ca.gov/elections/el…

Statewide Layout

Democrats: 7,053,860 (43.75%)

Republicans: 5,244,394 (32.53%)

Decline to State: 3,128,684 (19.40%)

Others: 696,849 (4.32%)

Key: I will list the incumbent first, in boldface (in open seats, the incumbent party first without boldface), and all minor parties after the two major parties.

D: Democratic

R: Republican

L: Libertarian

G: Green

AI: American Independent

PF: Peace and Freedom

I: Independent

Race Ratings

Toss-up: Margin by less than 5%

Lean: Margin by 5-10%

Likely: Margin by 10-15%

Strong: Margin by 15-20%

Solid: Margin by more than 20%

U.S. President: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Bob Barr (L), Alan Keyes (AI), Cynthia McKinney (G), and Ralph Nader (PF)

Profile: Obama’s win of our whopping 55 electoral votes is a foregone conclusion; no matter how many times McSame says he can compete here.

Outlook: Likely to Strong Obama

Ballot Measures: A whopping 12 measures will be on the California ballot this fall. Information can be found here: http://www.smartvoter.org/2008… Field has released polls on 1A, 2, 4, 7, and 11. http://www.field.com/fieldpoll…

Prop. 1A (High-Speed Rail): This measure would issue $9.95 billion of general obligation bonds for a $40 billion high speed train, connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles, under supervision of the California High-Speed Rail Authority. The train would run from San Francisco to Los Angeles. So far, this measure is passing 56-30, and I strongly urge my fellow Californians to vote for this measure!

9/17/2008 Outlook: Likely Pass

Prop. 2 (Regulations on Animal Confinement): This measure would prohibit the confinement of farm animals that basically does not allow them to be comfortable, imposing a misdemeanor penalty and fine or imprisonment for violators, and bans cages for egg-laying poultry, gestation crates for sows and veal crates for veal calves. This measure is also passing by an overwhelming margin.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Strong Pass

Prop. 3 (Children’s Hospital Bond): This bond issue would authorize $980 million for improvements on children’s hospitals. A similar measure, Prop 61, passed 58-42 in 2004, so for now I can say that 3 will pass also.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Strong Pass

Prop. 4 (Waiting Period and Parental Notification): Those anti-choice folks just never give up, and are hoping that the third time will be a charm. Like its predecessors 73 and 85, this one would prohibit abortion for minors until 48 hours after physician notification, only this one mentions an alternative adult family member in the case of reported parental abuse. Still, the addition of that change does not change my staunch opposition to this at all. Right now, though, this measure is passing 48-39%. I can only hope those affirmative numbers go down.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up/Lean Fail

Prop. 5 (Nonviolent Drug Offenses): This measure would allocate $460 million annually for expansion and improvement of treatment programs for nonviolent drug offenders, limiting court authority to incarcerate offenders who commit certain drug crimes or break treatment rules or parole. So far no polls have been released, so I can’t make an accurate prediction as to how this measure will fare.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated

Prop. 6 (Law Enforcement Funding and Criminal Law Revisions): This measure requires about $700 million of funding for police and local law enforcement, and makes 30 revisions to California criminal law. The funding would come from education, health care, and the environment, just to name a few. The last thing we need is money being diverted from services that keep people out of becoming criminals, so I am saying no to this measure. No polls on this have been released yet, though I hope concerns over the budget will send this to the ballot measure graveyard.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated

Prop. 7 (Renewable Energy Generation): This measure would require government-owned utilities to generate 20% of their electricity from renewable energy sources by 2010, upping that requirement for all utilities to 40% by 2020 and 50% by 2025. However, from an L.A. Times editorial ( http://www.latimes.com/news/op… ) this bill has many drawbacks, including new regulatory powers which could lead to confusion, requiring a 2/3 vote of the legislature to remove, and the excluding of small renewable power-producing plants, which are actually leading the way in our transition to solar power. So I hope the affirmative numbers there go down fast and hard.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Toss-up/Lean Pass

Prop. 8 (Elimination of Same-Sex Marriage Rights): Basically, this measure is what it says; it eliminates the right of same-sex couples to marry. Marriages between same-sex couples would be neither valid nor recognized by the state. After our hard-fought victory in the Supreme Court, we want to make sure that same-sex couples have the same legal rights as everyone else. So far, it looks like that they will still be able to have their marriage rights, though the margins are too close for comfort. We still have to fight to protect them. So vote NO ON 8!

9/17/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up

Prop. 9 (Victims’ Rights and Protection): This would amend the California Constitution to guarantee notification for crime victims, allowing victims’ input in the criminal justice process, including bail, pleas, sentencing, and parole; taking victim safety into consideration for bail or parole which, except for guaranteed notification, is already in place. In addition, judges and the state lawmakers would have less power in awarding restitution, releasing inmates early, and granting inmates the ability to earn parole. No polls have been released on this yet, though I hope it goes down also!

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated

Prop. 10 (Renewable Energy): This measure would authorize $5 billion in bonds to assist in buying fuel efficient/alternative fuel vehicles (though only the natural gas-fueled Honda Civic qualifies) and for research in renewable energy and alternative fuel vehicles. I am for alternative energy, but not to give more money to the biggest donor to the Swift Boat Liars, T. Boone Pickens. Basically, this is his plan to control a nationwide natural gas monopoly, giving bigger tax incentives to people that purchase natural gas vehicles (though there is already a federal subsidy for them), than people that purchase hybrid vehicles, though the latter is more efficient. So I hope this proposition goes down also.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated

Prop. 11 (Redistricting): This would amend the constitution to shift authority of shaping district borders from the state legislature to a commission made of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans, and 4 others, which is out of balance with the registration numbers, as you can see above. California voters have a history of rejecting redistricting ballot measures, and I do think this one will also, though by a small margin. So far, this measure is passing, though by just a plurality. Ballot measures’ affirmative numbers tend to go down over time, and California voters have a long history of rejecting redistricting measures, having rejected 9 so far including Prop 77 in 2005, which went down in a nearly 60-40 landslide.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up/Lean Fail

Prop. 12 (Veterans’ Bond): This would authorize $900 million in bonds for veterans’ assistance in purchasing farms and homes. No polls on this measure have been released yet.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated

Pre-Primary Update: Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2008

( – promoted by David Dayen)

Here is my updated legislature outlook, with the updated registration numbers of the districts where the current incumbents are term-limited. I am using a “Partisan Factor” (PF), which is the average of the margins in registration, Davis-Simon (02G), Kerry-Bush (04P), Boxer-Jones (04S), and Feinstein-Mountjoy (06S). My previous diary is here, the initial discussion we had on the legislature outlook is here, and the updated numbers are below the flip.

Before the flip, I have a few words to say………

Get Out The Vote!!!

And a friendly reminder to voters out in SD-15: Please make sure to write in Dennis Morris!

ASSEMBLY

Republican-Held Seats (12)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
2
Doug LaMalfa
32.12%
47.19%
R+15.07
3
Rick Keene
34.31%
41.29%
R+6.98
10
Alan Nakanishi
38.71%
40.68%
R+1.97
15
Guy Houston
39.41%
38.10%
D+1.31
26
Greg Aghazarian
42.01%
40.02%
D+1.99
34
Bill Maze
33.91%
45.74%
R+11.83
36
Sharon Runner
35.37%
42.62%
R+7.25
64
John Benoit
34.96%
43.52%
R+8.56
71
Todd Spitzer
27.81%
50.42%
R+22.61
75
George Plescia
30.07%
42.01%
R+11.94
78
Shirley Horton
42.51%
32.03%
D+10.48
80
Bonnie Garcia
46.41%
35.65%
D+10.76

District 2002G 2004P 2004S 2006S Reg. PF
2
R+30.0
R+34.1
R+23.7
R+16.7
R+15.1
R+23.91
3
R+31.5
R+14.7
R+7.3
R+0.2
R+7.0
R+12.14
10
R+16.6
R+14.0
R+0.7
D+6.2
R+2.0
R+5.41
15
R+4.5
D+0.1
D+7.8
D+22.3
D+1.3
D+5.40
26
R+5.7
R+15.6
D+1.0
D+6.3
D+2.0
R+2.40
34
R+26.1
R+33.6
R+20.9
R+12.6
R+11.8
R+21.01
36
R+26.0
R+21.9
R+5.7
D+5.4
R+7.3
R+11.10
64
R+15.3
R+16.6
R+1.6
D+0.7
R+8.6
R+8.27
71
R+33.6
R+30.2
R+19.4
R+14.4
R+22.6
R+24.04
75
R+19.8
R+12.7
R+0.2
D+5.6
R+11.9
R+7.81
78
D+2.4
D+3.2
D+20.4
D+24.2
D+10.5
D+12.14
80
D+8.6
D+5.2
D+19.3
D+22.4
D+10.8
D+13.25

Democratic-Held Seats (11)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
1
Patty Berg
45.71%
27.67%
D+18.04
8
Lois Wolk
47.00%
28.75%
D+18.25
13
Mark Leno
58.03%
8.90%
D+49.13
14
Loni Hancock
60.41%
14.17%
D+46.24
19
Gene Mullin
50.97%
21.67%
D+29.30
22
Sally Lieber
44.39%
23.25%
D+21.14
27
John Laird
49.15%
25.57%
D+23.58
30
Nicole Parra
46.76%
37.61%
D+9.15
40
Lloyd Levine
48.59%
27.01%
D+21.58
46
Fabian Núñez
65.18%
11.18%
D+54.00
52
Mervyn Dymally
69.43%
10.93%
D+58.50

District 2002G 2004P 2004S 2006S Reg. PF
1
D+10.3
D+22.4
D+26.5
D+32.5
D+18.0
D+21.95
8
D+8.8
D+12.5
D+22.8
D+28.8
D+18.3
D+18.23
13
D+53.3
D+72.2
D+73.5
D+72.9
D+49.1
D+64.21
14
D+43.9
D+62.8
D+61.7
D+65.6
D+46.2
D+56.05
19
D+28.4
D+39.8
D+44.8
D+54.4
D+29.3
D+39.34
22
D+26.4
D+36.1
D+40.7
D+48.5
D+21.1
D+34.57
27
D+20.4
D+35.0
D+36.0
D+43.8
D+23.6
D+31.76
30
R+2.6
R+14.7
D+3.8
D+12.9
D+9.2
D+1.71
40
D+11.6
D+21.9
D+35.3
D+33.7
D+21.6
D+24.82
46
D+60.8
D+62.7
D+72.3
D+72.3
D+54.0
D+64.42
52
D+70.0
D+73.5
D+79.4
D+79.9
D+58.5
D+72.26

SENATE

Republican-Held Seats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
15
Abel Maldonado
40.52%
36.20%
D+4.32
19
Tom McClintock
37.54%
39.48%
R+1.94
29
Bob Margett
33.00%
43.42%
R+10.42
33
Dick Ackerman
27.97%
49.52%
R+21.55
37
Jim Battin
36.26%
42.98%
R+6.72

District 2002G 2004P 2004S 2006S Reg. PF
15
R+2.4
D+6.4
D+11.3
D+20.6
D+4.3
D+8.04
19
R+7.0
R+2.0
D+7.6
D+10.6
R+1.9
D+1.45
29
R+19.9
R+15.2
R+1.7
R+2.2
R+10.4
R+9.88
33
R+31.4
R+27.2
R+14.9
R+11.6
R+21.6
R+21.33
37
R+13.4
R+16.6
R+0.9
D+2.2
R+6.7
R+7.08

Democratic-Held Seats (6)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
5
Michael Machado
47.13%
31.52%
D+15.61
7
Tom Torlakson
47.80%
29.44%
D+18.36
9
Don Perata
60.96%
12.74%
D+48.22
21
Jack Scott
46.56%
27.51%
D+19.05
23
Sheila Kuehl
50.94%
24.53%
D+26.41
25
Edward Vincent
60.25%
19.20%
D+41.05

District 2002G 2004P 2004S 2006S Reg. PF
5
D+7.7
D+8.4
D+22.2
D+27.6
D+15.6
D+16.30
7
D+14.5
D+22.8
D+27.2
D+39.6
D+18.4
D+24.49
9
D+48.2
D+63.6
D+64.5
D+66.6
D+48.2
D+58.22
21
D+15.0
D+27.8
D+35.9
D+37.0
D+19.1
D+26.95
23
D+22.6
D+31.1
D+40.8
D+45.9
D+26.4
D+33.36
25
D+38.7
D+45.7
D+52.9
D+53.6
D+41.1
D+46.39