Report #13 on the Six Californias Signature Verification Process

Two more counties have completed their random sampling according to today’s update from the Secretary of State’s office; one large (Riverside, with a validity rate of 73.3%), and one small (Santa Cruz, with a validity rate of 60.1%). I note that Riverside has a very high validity rate for a large county (74,478 raw signatures). No county with more raw signatures has a validity rate higher than 69.5%. (Of course, we still have to hear from Los Angeles County.) The largest county with a validity rate higher than 73.3% is Ventura (27,134 raw signatures, validity rate 82.2%).

The overall validity rate is 67.6%, up somewhat from the 67.0% validity rate in my previous report. That gives a projected valid signature count of 769,154 signatures, up sufficiently from the 762,328 in that previous report for Six Californias to qualify for a full count. This bodes well for Six Californias as long as the remaining counties average roughly a 67.3% or better validity count.

Sixteen counties still have to complete their random sampling. (According to the Secretary of State, they have to complete the process by September 12th, a week from this Friday.) The top ten (by the number of raw signatures they reported) are now Los Angeles (311,924 raw signatures), Orange (52,217), Fresno (38,382), San Luis Obispo (12,906), El Dorado (11,649), Humboldt (7,230), Tuolumne (4,732), Nevada (4,322), Yuba (3,720), and Lassen (2,066). The top three have to check 3% of their signatures; the others have to check 500 (unless they want to check them all).

(Note that I had made a mistake in Report #11, carried over in Report #12, where I had included Kern county in the list of uncompleted counties even though they had completed their random sampling. I have corrected those previous reports and triple-checked the list in this report.)

–Steve Chessin

President, Californians for Electoral Reform (CfER)

www.cfer.org

The opinions expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of CfER.

Report #12 on the Six Californias Signature Verification Process

Thursday’s update included completed random samples from three more counties: Alameda (validity rate 67.6%), Calaveras (73.2%), and Tehama (66.9%). The overall validity rate is up slightly, from 66.9% to 67.0%, for a projected total valid signature count of 762,328 (up from 761,190 in my previous report), still not enough to qualify for a full count. That requires 767,235 projected valid signatures.

Eighteen counties still have to complete their random sampling. The top ten (by the number of raw signatures they reported) are now Los Angeles (311,924 raw signatures), Riverside (74,478), Orange (52,217), Fresno (38,382), San Luis Obispo (12,906), El Dorado (11,649), Humboldt (7,230), Tuolumne (4,732), Nevada (4,322), and Santa Cruz (3,742).

Jim Riley posted an interesting comment to Report #11. One of his points is (I think) that the estimate of duplicates has a wide variance, and this can cause an initiative to fail to qualify based on the sampling when a full count would show that it had sufficient signatures. It might be interesting to look at the qualification rules used by other states that have the initiative.

Updated September 3rd: I made a mistake in Report #11 (since fixed) where I counted Kern County in the top 10 unfinished counties when it had actually completed its random sampling. That mistake was carried over into the original version of this report. I have fixed it above by removing Kern and adding Santa Cruz.

–Steve Chessin

President, Californians for Electoral Reform (CfER)

www.cfer.org

The opinions expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of CfER.

A Few Bills of Note: Plastic Bags, Accreditation, Uber

(I’ll be on KALW Your Call at 10AM on Tuesday morning to talk about the recent legislative session. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

Santa Monica Fourth of July Parade photo by  Lori NafshunAs legislative deadline draws near, bills aplenty

by Brian Leubitz

It’s that time of year again. The season for quickie news stories proclaiming one new law or another. With the legislative deadline coming at the end of the month for bills to get out of the Legislature, we will be seeing plenty more in the next few days. In fact, I’ll be on KALW’s Your Call on Sept. 2 at 10AM to talk about a few of the noteworthy bills. But before we get there, let’s take a look at a few already on the move.

Senate Bill 270 by Senators Padilla, de León and Lara, passed off the California State Assembly Floor yesterday on a 44-29 vote, after falling three votes short of passage earlier this week.

The bill now advances to the State Senate for final confirmation where it is expected to be taken up before the legislature adjourns on August 31.

“The State Assembly spent a great deal of time debating the merits of this issue over the last several months, and especially this week,” said Mark Murray, Executive Director of the bill’s sponsor, Californians Against Waste. “In the end, it was the reports of overwhelming success of this policy at the local level that overcame the political attacks and misinformation from out-of-state plastic bag makers.”

Moving to community colleges, you may have heard a bit about the mess that was CCSF’s accreditation process. Earlier this week, the accreditation commission had to acknowledge, after their attorneys failed to properly redact the information, that they did not take the recommendation of their site visit committee. That committee recommended probation, rather than the far more harsh “show cause” status. That set alarm bells off across the City and state, with the SF City Attorney suing the commission and a new law:

A bill that seeks to make the accreditation system for California’s 112 community colleges more transparent landed on the desk of Gov. Jerry Brown this week after receiving unanimous support from the state Senate and Assembly.

Brown has until Sept. 30 to veto or sign into law Assembly Bill 1942, which would require an accrediting agency to report accreditation decisions to the Legislature, such as last summer’s vote by the Accrediting Commission for Community and Junior Colleges to revoke City College of San Francisco’s accreditation.(SF Examiner)

One of the biggest complaints about the SF situation has been the fact that the commission has been so opaque. Few could actually understand the process, partially because they intentionally tried to make it that way. This bill, approved unanimously in both chambers, is a good step forward.

Finally, on the “sharing economy” front, Uber and Lyft dropped their objections to AB 2293, Asm. Bonilla’s insurance requirement bill. Bonilla dropped the requirement for drivers without paying customers to $200,000 from $500,000 while keeping the requirement at $1million when passengers are in the car. Without the objections from two sharing companies, the bill should sail through the Governor’s office.

Report #11 on the Six Californias Signature Verification Process

Good news! Tuesday’s random sample update includes raw signature counts from Amador and Trinity counties! Amador reports 1,750 raw signatures, and Trinity reports 779 raw signatures. That would have brought the total raw signature count to 1,137,875, except that Kern County, which finished its sampling, reduced its raw count from 26,444 to 26,422, and Humboldt County, which hasn’t finished its sampling, reduced its raw count from 7,280 to 7,230. That brings the total raw signature count to 1,137,803. (I was going to say “final total raw signature count”, except as we have seen a county might change its report of raw signatures when it completes its sampling.)

In addition to Kern (validity rate of 74.9%), three other counties have also completed their random sampling. They are San Bernardino (61.4%), San Mateo (68.0%), and Siskiyou (71.2%). That brings the overall validity rate to 66.9%, down from the 67.5% in my previous report, and gives an overall estimate of 761,190 raw signatures, well below the 767,235 needed to qualify for a full count.

There are still 21 counties that need to finish their sampling (including Amador and Trinity). With both San Bernardino (it had been ranked second) and Kern (it had been ranked seventh) having reported, the top ten are now Los Angeles (311,924 raw signatures), Riverside (74,478), Orange (52,217), Alameda (51,366), Fresno (38,382), San Luis Obispo (12,906), El Dorado (11,649), Humboldt (7,230), Tehama (4,855), and Toulomne (4,732).

Updated September 3rd: In my original posting I listed Kern in the top ten unreported counties even though it had finished. I have corrected that above by removing Kern and adding Toulomne.

–Steve Chessin

President, Californians for Electoral Reform (CfER)

www.cfer.org

The opinions expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of CfER.

Assembly Passes Victim-Centered Sexual Assault Policy

Kevin de Leon Oath of OfficeWould require unambigious affirmative consent

by Brian Leubitz

The Assembly passed Sen. Kevin de León’s SB967 yesterday, requiring two-sided affirmative consent on college campuses.

A bill doing so, SB967, passed the Assembly on a 52-16 vote Monday as states and universities across the U.S. are under pressure to change how they handle rape allegations. It now heads back to the Senate for what is expected to be a final vote on amendments.

The bill by state Sen. Kevin De Leon, D-Los Angeles, changes the definition of consent for campuses investigating sexual assault cases by requiring “an affirmative, unambiguous and conscious decision” by each party to engage in sexual activity. That marks a shift from the popular sexual-assault prevention refrain, “no means no.” (CBSLA)

With rising awareness of sexual assaults across the country, this is a positive step forward. While opponents have tried to belittle this as something out of an awkward high school health class video, the truth is far from that. Sure, date rape drugs are already illegal, but in an environment like a college campus, information is key. You can’t always get into the head of a college freshman, but this legislation makes that two-way disclosure a greater part of the conversation.  

Governor Signs Smartphone Theft Bill

Leno bill requires anti-theft software

by Brian Leubitz

Gov. Brown signed Sen. Leno’s SB 962 today addressing the growing epidemic of smartphone theft in California. SB 962 requires all smartphones sold in California to come pre-equipped with theft-deterring technological solutions to render the devices useless if stolen. The bill is the first of its kind in the nation prompting every consumer to enable a kill switch as the default setting during the initial setup of a new smartphone. Sen. Leno then went full Colbert in his assesment of the bill:

“California has just put smartphone thieves on notice,” said Senator Leno, D-San Francisco. “Starting next year, all smartphones sold in California, and most likely every other state in the union, will come equipped with theft deterrent technology when they purchase new phones. Our efforts will effectively wipe out the incentive to steal smartphones and curb this crime of convenience, which is fueling street crime and violence within our communities.”

On a more serious side, this bill, in some ways, is just legislating what has been happening already. However, many lower end phones may not have seen this feature for several years. It isn’t any huge issue to add it at this point, but this makes it the law in the state.  And because this is California, phone makers will just end up making all phones comply with this law.

This was quite a controversial bill, but ultimately, Leno and SF DA George Gascón built a coalition that could get this law passed. It is a big step in not only protecting property, but also encouraging public safety in general.

California Governor Jerry Brown Wants to Steal My Home

Due to the expansion of Medi-Cal under ObamaCare, my wife and I am now covered by that program.  But because both of us are over 55, Jerry can steal our house after we die to cover Medi-Cal’s expense of paying for our healthcare.  A 1993 law gives states the option to take back all the money spent by Medi-Cal for the healthcare of recipients over 55 by billing the estate after the recipient (and spouse) die.  Because California is taking advantage of this option, Medi-Cal for older people is effectively a long term loan.  

SB 1124, a bill to fix the problem, has made its way through most of the legislature.  If it passes, which is expected this week, Jerry has threatened to veto it to protect the state from the financial ruin of losing the $15 million it expects to collect by stealing the homes of other older Medi-Cal recipients who die over the next year.  That $15 million is 1/100 of 1% of the state’s budget!  At the end of this diary, I will ask you to contact Jerry Brown’s office and tell him to sign, not veto, SB 1124.  But first, a few important details.

My wife and I signed up for Medi-Cal late last year with coverage to start on January 1 of this year.  It was not until several months later that I read online that in California Medi-Cal is a long term loan program.  Even if we remain healthy, the state will deduct the monthly fee for the managed care program that administers Medi-Cal.  I even found a PDF of a brochure produced by the California Department of Healthcare Services (DHCS) that explained the details of how “estate recovery” works.  I prefer the term legal theft to the Orwellian “estate recovery.”

At no point in the process of signing up were we notified that it was perfectly legal to steal our home from our children after we both die.  When I called the Medi-Cal customer service line to ask about how to resign from Medi-Cal, they told me I was wrong and that the state could not and would not bill my estate.  Mentioning the DHCS brochure I had in my possession made no difference in that assertion by the customer service rep and his supervisor.

In April, California Senator Ed Hernandez, chair of the Senate Health Committee, introduced SB 1124, which limits so-called “estate recovery” to that which is mandated by Federal law, which is long-term care.  The bill also prohibits collection from the estate of a surviving spouse of a Medi-Cal beneficiary. I started an on-line petition in support of the bill and, with the help of Moveon and the Courage Campaign, have gotten almost 1500 people to sign the petition.  

Nearly every person I have ever talked to about Medi-Cal “estate recovery” is just as shocked as I am.  Some of the things they have said and/or written to me about “estate recovery” include “unconscionable,” “unfair,” “appalling,” and an “ill-conceived asset-stripping scheme.”  

Some of the people who signed the petition have told me their stories.  Here are some:

One woman is delaying gall bladder surgery rather than sign up for Medi-Cal.  She turned 55 earlier this year, is on disability and cannot work, and will pay off her home mortgage later this year.  Because her income is too low for the subsidies for private insurance that middle income people get, she is hoping to pay full price for health insurance when the open enrollment period for Obamacare begins in November.  

Others tell me that the process of signing up takes a long time, is cumbersome, and, like me, that nobody told them about “estate recovery” when they did sign up.  And, like me, they found out about it later through their own research.  There have even been cases where the family and beneficiaries first find out about Medi-Cal “estate recovery” after the recipient dies.

Another woman explained that she had chosen to move back into her father’s home when he became very ill so she could take care of him.  His healthcare was covered by Medi-Cal.  She was able to work in addition to caring for him but put all her extra money into paying taxes, maintenance, and upkeep for the house.  She has no money saved, but had assumed that she would be able to continue to live in the house after he dies.  There is a hardship exemption, but it will not apply because she can work.  Thousands of her dollars will be lost when he dies and the state steals his home that she will no longer inherit.  

Most ridiculous of all, a 62 year old man, who is an unemployed librarian with an MA in library science, broke his finger.  It is all discolored from the injury.  Rather than sign up for Medi-Cal so his finger could be taken care of by a doctor, he splinted it with a popsicle stick.  He does not want to lose his house.

So far, SB 1124 has gotten overwhelming support in the California legislature.  In the Senate, it passed the Health Committee 7-1, Senate Appropriations 6-1, and the full Senate 30-5.  It has also passed the Assembly Health Committee 18-0 and Assembly Appropriations 12-0.  The next step is a vote by the entire Assembly which is also expected to approve the bill as well.  As I said previously, the governor’s staff have said that they are recommending that SB 1124 be vetoed.

To overcome the opposition of the governor and his staff, I need you to act NOW by contacting Jerry Brown’s office and state your support for SB 1124.  Here is the contact information (mail, phone, fax, email):

Governor Jerry Brown

c/o State Capitol, Suite 1173

Sacramento, CA 95814

Phone: (916) 445-2841

Fax: (916) 558-3160

Email Jerry Brown

Please act right away.  

And please sign my petition in support of SB1124 at:

Online petition

Originally published in beyondchron.org

Reports #8, #9, and #10 on the Six Californias Signature Verification Process

I apologize for getting behind; between my day job, family, and unrelated political activity I haven’t been able to post any reports since my previous report until today. So this is three reports in one.

The random sample update for Monday, August 18th, was released after hours; it had a time-stamp of 5:32pm. It reported completed random samplings from the following counties: Lake (65.8% valid), Marin (76.9%), Monterey (71.9%), Santa Clara (65.6%), Stanislaus (71.9%), Tulare (72.0%), and Ventura (82.2%). In addition, the date when Inyo County reported their raw count of 616 signatures was changed from 11 August to 6 August. That correction is balanced by the obvious typo that Ventura’s sampling was completed 18 July instead of 18 August. The above average validity rates of Marin, Monterey, and especially Stanislaus, Tulare, and Ventura counties brought the overall validity rate up from 66.9% to 69.2%. If the validity rate stays that high (but keep reading), Six Californias will qualify for a full count.

Another random sample update was released on Tuesday, August 19th. This had reports from four more counties: the small ones of Colusa (they did a full count, with a validity rate of 79.4%) and Del Norte (random sample, 59.2% valid), and the large ones of Sacramento (60.5%) and San Diego (69.5%). The overall validity rate dropped slightly to 68.3%, still high enough to qualify for a full count.

A third random sample update was released on Friday, August 22nd. This added two more counties as completing their random samples: Contra Costa County (validity rate 56.1%) and Imperial County (60.4%). That brings the overall validity rate down to 67.5%. Contra Costa County also discovered that they had 8 fewer raw signatures than they originally thought, bringing the total raw count down to 1,135,346 (was 1,135,354). Combining that with the lower validity rate gives a projected total of 766,359 valid signatures, 876 fewer than needed to qualify for a full count.

A total of 33 counties have completed their random sampling. We’re still waiting for the raw counts from Amador and Trinity counties. (Could it be that no signatures were collected there?) That leaves 23 still to report; the top ten are Los Angeles (311,924 raw signatures), San Bernardino (88,067), Riverside (74,478), Orange (52,217), Alameda (51,366), Fresno (38,382), Kern (26,444), San Luis Obispo (12,906), El Dorado (11,649), and Humboldt (7,280). I expect they will determine if Six Californias gets a full count.

In other news (and as President of an organization that believes in multi-party democracy I feel obligated to report this), the UCES’ Clowns (whoever they are) have announced their intention to qualify as a political party. If you would like to help them (I’m not necessarily advocating that you should, mind you), just fill out the online voter registration form and when you get to the part that asks “Do you want to disclose a political party preference?”, select “Yes”, then select “Other”, and then type “UCES’ Clowns” into the text box next to “Other”. They need to register a number of voters equal to 1 percent of the votes that will be cast in the upcoming November election in order for candidates to list them as their party preference in the June 2016 primary. 10,300,392 votes were cast in November 2010, making the previous qualification threshold 103,004, but turnout is expected to be lower this year so they’ll probably have a (slightly) easier time of it. In addition, the Veteran’s Party of America and the Constitution Party of California are also in the process of attempting to qualify as political parties.

–Steve Chessin

President, Californians for Electoral Reform (CfER)

www.cfer.org

The opinions expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of CfER.  

A Necessary Drop in the Immigration Bucket

California leaders agree to $3M for legal aid for undocumented children

While three million dollars is really just a drop in the bucket for the  the many undocumented children and their legal expenses, it sends a strong statement:

Gov. Jerry Brown, Attorney General Kamala Harris and Legislative leaders announced legislation Thursday that sets aside the money for non-profits that provide legal help to unaccompanied minors currently in California.

*** **** ***

“These young people have legal rights and responsibilities, but they cannot fully participate in complex immigration proceedings without an attorney,” Harris said. “It is critical that these children, many of whom are fleeing extreme violence in Central America, have access to due process and adequate legal representation.” (SF Chronicle / Melody Gutierrez)

While Rick Perry is sending the national guard to the border, California leaders are doing what they can to help these children. It is a positive step, and shows that America (and California specifically) is still a caring nation.

Get Ready for Lots of Advertising: Props 45 and 46 Favored by Likely Voters

Proposition Yes No DK
45 – Justify Rates 69 16 15
46 – Drug Testing/Malpractice 58 30 12
47 – Sentencing 57 24 19

Measures draw ire of health insurance companies and doctors

by Brian Leubitz

The Field Poll has been doing a study of health care issues with the California Wellness Foundation, and today they released their numbers on the two health care related measures on the ballot. (Poll summary)

As you can see from the numbers to the right, the health insurance companies aren’t that popular. As you can see if you look a bit higher to the right, they are starting to spend on advertising. Their basic argument is that Prop 45 has some issues with possibly conflicting with Covered California. You can find lots of reports on both sides, and it is still something of an open question. Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones says that his office can easily handle the rate review process in the allotted period of time, and if he is right, then there shouldn’t be a problem. However, expect to see a lot of TV ads, mostly from the NO side.

On Prop 46, the malpractice limit is one of those issues that has split the Democratic party. Now, I have made my thoughts perfectly clear on MICRA, you can go back nearly five years when I wrote my first post on it, and I have further discussed it since. MICRA is great for malpractice insurance companies, because they get to keep hiking rates on doctors while their costs are controlled. But it is bad public policy.

Prop 46, though, has another element meant to curb substance abuse in doctors, and the terrible ramifications that has. That component has angered doctors and civil liberty groups, but has been popular with voters. All in all, the numbers are pretty healthy for the time being.

That being said, the opponents of Prop 46 have a lot of money, and will be using it this fall.

Prop 47, a sentencing reform measure, is good policy. However, it stands a decent shot of passage. There isn’t any big money opposed to this yet, but there is still time, I suppose.