Tag Archives: Francine Busby

California Blog Roundup, 5/8/06

Today’s California Blog Roundup is on the flip. Teasers: infrastructure bonds and the governor’s race, just the governor’s race, CA-50, CA-04, CA-11, immigration, CA-45, auto insurance, levees.

Infrastructure Bonds

Gubernatorial Race

CA-50

15% Doolittle / CA-04

Immigration

Paid-For Pombo / CA-11

The Rest

CA-50 Republican Poll Shows Busby With Decisive Lead

This looks like great news, so why am I skeptical? Over at Flash Report, the drumbeat for right wing Republican darling, Eric Roach, to run against Republican lobbyist Brian Bilbray has become frantic. Roach, for his part, remains silent. In fact, Roach has missed two deadlines established by his own spokesman for an announcement of his intentions. Last week, we were told Roach would have an announcement by week’s end. This week, the same line. No announcement.

Now to this latest poll. The numbers for Busby are outstanding. In a poll of 450 potential voters, skewed heavily with Republicans, Busby outperforms Bilbray 43% to 37%. This seems pretty unusual, so let’s look at the poll a little more closely.

First, the poll was commissioned by conservative Republican and Eric Roach supporter, Bill Hauf. Hauf ostensible wanted to find out both Bilbray’s position in his race against Busby, but also the mood of the conservative electorate. The poll appears to have been designed to insure that Bilbray’s liberal tendencies would be exposed.

Second, the poll used a classic “push poll” methodology. The money question of voter preference is preceded by questions designed to predispose the respondent to make a specific choice. For example, prior to asking if a voter prefers Busby or Bilbray, there might be a couple of questions about Bilbray the lobbyist. Or, depending on the poll, a question about Bilbray eating the flesh of young children.

Third, the poll was designed to scare Republicans. Bilbray (the eater of living children) performed far worse against Busby than Roach, the white knight of the Republican right.

However, this poll is good news for Busby. The margin of error is too great to be just the product of the “push poll” bias. And, it shows that Republican support of Bilbray is incredibly weak.

The continuing drumbeat of bad news regarding the Bush Administration and the support of Republican leaders like Cheney and Hastert are huge negative for Bilbray. In fact, the mainstream party support for Bilbray is playing right into both Busby and Roach’s hands.

The result here is great for Busby, a major negative for Bilbray and a big inducement to Roach to take on Bilbray (for his own good).

CA-50 Ask Brian Bilbray – May 2 Edition

It is interesting how many members of congress and CIA employees are having a hard time remembering the details of those cigar and booze filled nights over at Brent Wilkes’ “hospitality suite.” Via TPM Muckracker:

Porter Goss never participated.

Dusty Foggo played poker, but never saw any hookers.

Jerry Lewis (CA-41) never hung with Wilkes outside of California.

Duncan Hunter (CA-51) doesn’t drink, smoke or hang out with riff-raff.

John Doolittle (CA-4) doesn’t speak to the press.

What about one of Wilkes other pals in congress, Brian Bilbray? Bilbray received some big money from Wilkes and was active both in congress and as a lobbyist while Wilkes was running his “hospitality” operation for lonely members of congress.

Why isn’t someone from the Pulitzer Prize winning San Diego Union Tribune asking Bilbray about his association with Wilkes?

CA-50 Will Roach Run?

50th District Republican Eric Roach has returned from his visit with the lords of the right in Washington and now California conservatives eagerly await his decision. Will he run against Brian Bilbray in the 50th District Republican primary? Certainly, it’s not just conservatives who are hanging on Roach’s impending announcement. Roach’s entry into the primary will force Brian Bilbray to fight a two front war – one against Democrat Francine Busby in the run-off election to fill out the remainder of convicted Republican felon Randy “Duke” Cunningham and the other to fend off Roach in the Republican primary. Both battles to be fought simultaneously and decided on June 6.

Conservative blogger, Jon Fleischman was part of Roach’s entourage on his trip to DC. Roach, Fleischman and the geography challenged Howard Kaloogian visited the various gurus of the right, with Fleischman breathlessly reporting on each new encounter with the great oracles of conservatism – Grover Norquist, Paul Weyrich, and a host of other right wing members of the Republican congress of corruption.  No mention of any visits to Brent Wilkes’ “hospitality” suite.

Why does Roach need Grove Norquist’s permission to run?  Answer after the jump.

More to the point, this trip was designed to grease the skids for what in the end will be a Republican vs Republican cage match. If Roach’s primary candidacy results in a Busby victory in June, it will be considered as collateral damage by the conservatives. Their target is a conservative victory in November. If Roach beats Bilbray in the primary, then whether Bilbray wins or loses the run-off with Busby, his only alternative in November is to run a write-in campaign, which almost guarantees the seat to Busby. At that point, Bilbray will be under incredible pressure from the Republican Party to go back to his home in Virginia and resume his career as a lobbyist.

This is a high stakes game for Roach and the conservatives. If Roach wins the primary and then defeats Busby in November, it is validation for the movement conservatives. If Roach loses to Bilbray in the primary or if a three way race in November results in a Busby victory, the movement conservatives will be repudiated in a district they consider as safe as any in the country, a strong signal that the far right wing driven vision of the conservative movement may well be on the decline.

Upon their return, Fleischman strongly urged Roach to run.

…in terms of sending someone to Washington long-term in a conservative district (70% of the votes for GOP candidates in the special went to very conservative candidates in a 14-way donnybrook), we need Roach to run. Besides, I honestly believe that (now that I know how not-conservative Bilbray was in DC), Republicans will have a hard-time motivating to get to the polls without Roach on the ballot. We’ll see what Eric Roach decides — but I hope that he decides to run – both for the good of the party, and for the good of the conservative cause, which is already imperiled by too many Bilbray-clones in the House.

He’s right, the conservative cause needs Eric Roach to run.  What the movement conservatives can’t afford is for Roach to fail.

California Blog Roundup, 4/26/06

Today’s Blog Roundup is on the flip. Teasers: Feingold in LA, CA-11, CA-50, CA-36, gas gouging, a little on the Dem Gov Primary, and a lot of neat stuff in “Other”.

Feingold Blogger Lunch

OK, first of all, some Los Angeles bloggers got to lunch with Russ Feingold yesterday. Here are their reports:

CA-11

  • Progressive 11th attended the Tracy Candidates’ Forum and reports back. Prog11 supports McNerney, near as I can tell, but assuming his report of Filson’s attitude toward the grassroots is correct, it isn’t very happy-making. More important, those grassroots are the people you need to run through brick walls for you in the general, so you might not want to dump on them in the primary.
  • Jerry McNerney was interviewd on the Quake today.

CA-50

CA-36

    Marcy Winograd, the primary challenger to Jane Harman in CA-36, introduced herself at MyDD (and yes, we need to send them an email). The comments are interesting. Down with Tyranny is all for Marcy.

Black Gold! Texas Tea!

Dem Gov Primary

“Other”

California Blog Roundup, 4/25/06

Today’s California Blog Roundup is on the flip. Teasers: the independent expenditure campaign for Angelides, a bit more on the Angelides/Westly matchup, Governor Schwarzenegger’s manifest and multitudinous failings, the import of CA-50 and the Republican swift-boating of Francine Busby, more 15% Doolittle and his defenders moral relativism, Paid-For Pombo’s self-dealing and propaganda, and some miscellaneous commentary I found interesting on Di-Fi, Bush’s visit, California Senate Staffers, etc.

The Angelides / Westly Matchup

Governor Schwarzenegger

CA-50

  • Chris Bowers at MyDD ponders whether a Busby win in the runoff would be a harbinger for realignment, and whether a loss would indicate the opposite.
  • Francine Busby responds to the Republican swiftboat-style ads in CA-50. Turns out those ads are pretty much all lies and distortions. Whoda thunk it?
  • Words Have Power notes that the NRCC, which is paying for the ad, seems to have no-one able to comment on it. Apparently the ad sprang organically from the Republican party infrastructure in the dark of night (rather like a mushroom).

15% Doolittle / CA-04

Paid-For Pombo / CA-11

Smörgåsbord

CA-50: Who is Busby running against? Maybe both?!

Who knows?  Bilbray says he’s the “presumptive” candidate. 

Neither of the two leading candidates claimed outright victory after Tuesday’s special election to finish the final eight months of Cunningham’s term. They were separated by less than 900 votes.

With 100 percent of the precincts counted, lobbyist and former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray had 19,366 votes or 15 percent of the vote in California’s 50th District. Eric Roach, a venture capitalist who poured at least $1.8 million of his own money into the race, had 18,486 votes or 14 percent.

You also have to love that Roach’s money could only buy one vote for each $10.  $10/vote.  Wow, those are some expensive votes.  So, while neither Republican can decide who is the winner, they can spend lots of money to decide nothing.

But Roach hasn’t ruled anything out.  Anything.

“We are waiting for those final 10,000 votes to be counted,” said Roach spokesman Stan Devereux. “Then we’ll see if a recount is necessary.”

Devereux didn’t rule out the possibility that Roach might attempt a write-in campaign in the June runoff if he finishes behind Bilbray.

Well, I must admit that I thought Busby vs. Bilbray was my dream scenario for the runoff (if there had to be one.)  But I take that back.  My dream scenario is now Roach running a well-financed write-in campaign and handing the election to Busby.  Hey Eric, you want to spend another $10/vote?

CA-50 Special Election Post-Mortem Blog Roundup

OK, here’s the CA-50 Special Election Postmortem Roundup.

If you read just one of these, read this one, by Frank Russo of the California Progress Report.  He hits most of the topics that everyone else does, and couple that others don’t, like the high number of uncounted provisional ballots. (Thanks, HAVA and Secretary McPherson!)

I would follow that up with Markos’s concerns about turnout, which is the only issue that Frank doesn’t hit.  CQ Politics has a good just-the-facts (well, mostly just the facts) summary.

See also Bowers @ MyDD (optimistic) D-Day (cautiously optimistic), Down with Tyranny (more optimistic), Ezra Klein (neutral), and Words Have Power (tired, I think).

For what it’s worth, I tend to agree with Frank Russo + Kos.  It’s about motivating the voters on your side, getting them to the polls, and making sure their votes get counted.  The Republicans are fracturing and appear demoralized, not just in CA-50, but nationwide.  The Democrats need to prove they can stand up and campaign to take advantage of that.

Belated California Blog Roundup, 4/6/06

California Blog Roundup is on the flip. There’s a lot, as I’ve been busy with other things (mea maxima culpa). Teasers: Call to Action from Debra Bowen, Eric Roach, Busby campaign responds to NRCC ad buy, lots of CA-11, some CA-4, Schwarzenegger’s ratings and his campaign staff, clean money advances (slow boring through hard boards), more immigration, and a fun little potpourri of links at the end.

Call To Action

CA-50

CA-11

  • Say No to Pombo has a great explanation of how the California Democratic Party chooses an endorsement in a primary, in the context of explaining how Jerry McNerney almost got the supermajority necessary to get the tentative endorsement, despite armtwisting on Steve Filson’s behalf by Dem officeholders.
  • SNTP again has an interesting discussion on the relative benefits of voting in the Democratic primary vs. voting for McCloskey in the Republican Primary, and the need for movement-building. It continues in the comments, so keep scrolling.
  • Progressive 11th reprints Jerry McNerney’s press release: he raised over $50K in the first quarter of the year. If someone has the cash-on-hand numbers and the Filson fundraising info, that would be great — we’ll add them. Otherwise I’ll go dig up the reports.
  • PomboWatch wonders if Pombo is using the House Resources Committee as some sort of personal vendetta against the environment.

CA-4

Governor’s Race

Reform

    Don Perata supports AB 583, the clean money bill. Note that the current version is no longer just a display bill, but would have teeth. Time to really pay attention to this one.

Immigration

  • Down With Tyranny starts a meditation with Dana Rohrbacher, swerves into punk rock, then back to Rohrbacher. Just go read it.
  • People who read the right-wing blogs will have read about Josh Denhalter, the SoCal high school student who staged an anti-MECha protest. Turns out he had some support from the Minutemen and from Save Our State — just a smidge nativist. Everyone should know who the Minutemen are. I have to admit I didn’t know anything about Save Our State. I’m not sure I’m a better person for knowing. Here’s one example of their thinking. And one should read the interchange on their forums where Denhalter asks for support. It’s enlightening. I particularly like that his location is identified as “Third World Cesspool”. Don’t know if he chose that or it’s automatic in the Save Our State forums. Either way, it says a lot.

Everything Else