Tag Archives: CA-50

CA-50 All Tied Up!

A SurveyUSA poll released today finds the race for the CA-50 congressional seat tied, with Democrat Francine Busby and Republican Brian Bilbray each the preference of 45% of likely voters.

The poll represents 442 likely voters sampled May 7-9. By party affiliation 50% of the respondents considered themselves Republican, 32% Democrats and 18% independents. Bilbray is the preference of 82% of the self-described Republicans, while Busby is the preference of 95% of Democrats and 54% of independents.

More details below.

One point of interest, 54% of the Republicans surveyed did not vote in the April 11 special election, where just 35% of the Democrats claimed to have not participated. Bilbray’s number therefore reflect the contribution of self-described likely voters, who did not bother to fill out an absentee ballot or drop by a polling station to choose their party’s candidate for the run-off. What are to odds that this group will now turn out in mass to vote for Bilbray?

This poll was taken before Eric Roach “stood down” in his primary challenge of Bilbray and before Bill Hauf alerted the media that he was seriously considering an “aggressive” challenge of Bilbray in the primary.

All in all, this poll is good news for Busby. She has moved from being slightly behind Bilbray right after the special election (although within that poll’s margin of error) to a dead even tie in a heavily Republican district.

CA-50: Roach not running

It’s a sad day over at FlashReport.  Eric Roach has announced that he will not be running against Brian Bilbray in the June Primary for the CA-50 congressional seat.

This morning I spoke with Eric Roach, the top-vote getting conservative in last month’s special election in the 50th Congressional District.  So let me be the first to share some unfortunate news (unless you are a big-spending Republican).

It is with great sadness that I share with you the news that after much consideration, Eric Roach has decided not to actively campaign for Congress in the regular GOP primary in the 50th Congressional District.  Eric would have been an outstanding candidate who I personally think could have cleaned liberal/moderate GOPer Brian Bilbray’s clock in that GOP only primary and gone on to win election to the full two-year term in November.(FlashReport 5/8/06)

Aww, poor Jon is upset.  Sorry, I have to keep the Schadenfreude out of this.  Fleischman was, shall we say, the loudest and proudest of the Run,Eric, Run crowd.  He believed that Bilbray was some sort of a moderate/liberal. (Uh…yeah, compared to Roach’s channeling of James Dobson and Grover Norquist). 

But, he does make a compelling argument for Busby defeating Bilbray in the special runoff in June. His argument: turnout.  If Roach doesn’t run, then conservatives stay home.  (“Without Roach on the ballot, Bilbray has a big challenge ahead of him in turning out conservative voters.”)  His argument comes from national numbers that conservatives are disapproving of Bush and other federal Republicans.  Uhh…duh!  People are mad at Bush because his administration is incompetent, not because they aren’t throwing them the bone.  I think the common voter on the street, even the conservative ones, value competence over ideology.

And Francine Busby fits the bill of competence to a tee.  She did a wonderful job as a school board member.  She will be an excellent Congressman.  And in another endorsement of Busby, Jon Says:

If I lived in this Congressional District, I would go to the polls and vote for Bilbray over Busby.  She is awful.  But that said, given that I have traveled to every part of California, it seems, to help candidates in important special elections, but I am so frustrated at what moderate GOPers have done to hijack our majority and imperil its very existence, that I am not to motivate to get myself to San Diego anytime soon.

Well, anytime Jon Fleischman calls you awful,  you know you’ve done something right.

California Blog Roundup, 5/8/06

Today’s California Blog Roundup is on the flip. Teasers: infrastructure bonds and the governor’s race, just the governor’s race, CA-50, CA-04, CA-11, immigration, CA-45, auto insurance, levees.

Infrastructure Bonds

Gubernatorial Race

CA-50

15% Doolittle / CA-04

Immigration

Paid-For Pombo / CA-11

The Rest

CA-50 Republican Poll Shows Busby With Decisive Lead

This looks like great news, so why am I skeptical? Over at Flash Report, the drumbeat for right wing Republican darling, Eric Roach, to run against Republican lobbyist Brian Bilbray has become frantic. Roach, for his part, remains silent. In fact, Roach has missed two deadlines established by his own spokesman for an announcement of his intentions. Last week, we were told Roach would have an announcement by week’s end. This week, the same line. No announcement.

Now to this latest poll. The numbers for Busby are outstanding. In a poll of 450 potential voters, skewed heavily with Republicans, Busby outperforms Bilbray 43% to 37%. This seems pretty unusual, so let’s look at the poll a little more closely.

First, the poll was commissioned by conservative Republican and Eric Roach supporter, Bill Hauf. Hauf ostensible wanted to find out both Bilbray’s position in his race against Busby, but also the mood of the conservative electorate. The poll appears to have been designed to insure that Bilbray’s liberal tendencies would be exposed.

Second, the poll used a classic “push poll” methodology. The money question of voter preference is preceded by questions designed to predispose the respondent to make a specific choice. For example, prior to asking if a voter prefers Busby or Bilbray, there might be a couple of questions about Bilbray the lobbyist. Or, depending on the poll, a question about Bilbray eating the flesh of young children.

Third, the poll was designed to scare Republicans. Bilbray (the eater of living children) performed far worse against Busby than Roach, the white knight of the Republican right.

However, this poll is good news for Busby. The margin of error is too great to be just the product of the “push poll” bias. And, it shows that Republican support of Bilbray is incredibly weak.

The continuing drumbeat of bad news regarding the Bush Administration and the support of Republican leaders like Cheney and Hastert are huge negative for Bilbray. In fact, the mainstream party support for Bilbray is playing right into both Busby and Roach’s hands.

The result here is great for Busby, a major negative for Bilbray and a big inducement to Roach to take on Bilbray (for his own good).

CA-50 Ask Brian Bilbray – May 2 Edition

It is interesting how many members of congress and CIA employees are having a hard time remembering the details of those cigar and booze filled nights over at Brent Wilkes’ “hospitality suite.” Via TPM Muckracker:

Porter Goss never participated.

Dusty Foggo played poker, but never saw any hookers.

Jerry Lewis (CA-41) never hung with Wilkes outside of California.

Duncan Hunter (CA-51) doesn’t drink, smoke or hang out with riff-raff.

John Doolittle (CA-4) doesn’t speak to the press.

What about one of Wilkes other pals in congress, Brian Bilbray? Bilbray received some big money from Wilkes and was active both in congress and as a lobbyist while Wilkes was running his “hospitality” operation for lonely members of congress.

Why isn’t someone from the Pulitzer Prize winning San Diego Union Tribune asking Bilbray about his association with Wilkes?

CA-50 Will Roach Run?

50th District Republican Eric Roach has returned from his visit with the lords of the right in Washington and now California conservatives eagerly await his decision. Will he run against Brian Bilbray in the 50th District Republican primary? Certainly, it’s not just conservatives who are hanging on Roach’s impending announcement. Roach’s entry into the primary will force Brian Bilbray to fight a two front war – one against Democrat Francine Busby in the run-off election to fill out the remainder of convicted Republican felon Randy “Duke” Cunningham and the other to fend off Roach in the Republican primary. Both battles to be fought simultaneously and decided on June 6.

Conservative blogger, Jon Fleischman was part of Roach’s entourage on his trip to DC. Roach, Fleischman and the geography challenged Howard Kaloogian visited the various gurus of the right, with Fleischman breathlessly reporting on each new encounter with the great oracles of conservatism – Grover Norquist, Paul Weyrich, and a host of other right wing members of the Republican congress of corruption.  No mention of any visits to Brent Wilkes’ “hospitality” suite.

Why does Roach need Grove Norquist’s permission to run?  Answer after the jump.

More to the point, this trip was designed to grease the skids for what in the end will be a Republican vs Republican cage match. If Roach’s primary candidacy results in a Busby victory in June, it will be considered as collateral damage by the conservatives. Their target is a conservative victory in November. If Roach beats Bilbray in the primary, then whether Bilbray wins or loses the run-off with Busby, his only alternative in November is to run a write-in campaign, which almost guarantees the seat to Busby. At that point, Bilbray will be under incredible pressure from the Republican Party to go back to his home in Virginia and resume his career as a lobbyist.

This is a high stakes game for Roach and the conservatives. If Roach wins the primary and then defeats Busby in November, it is validation for the movement conservatives. If Roach loses to Bilbray in the primary or if a three way race in November results in a Busby victory, the movement conservatives will be repudiated in a district they consider as safe as any in the country, a strong signal that the far right wing driven vision of the conservative movement may well be on the decline.

Upon their return, Fleischman strongly urged Roach to run.

…in terms of sending someone to Washington long-term in a conservative district (70% of the votes for GOP candidates in the special went to very conservative candidates in a 14-way donnybrook), we need Roach to run. Besides, I honestly believe that (now that I know how not-conservative Bilbray was in DC), Republicans will have a hard-time motivating to get to the polls without Roach on the ballot. We’ll see what Eric Roach decides — but I hope that he decides to run – both for the good of the party, and for the good of the conservative cause, which is already imperiled by too many Bilbray-clones in the House.

He’s right, the conservative cause needs Eric Roach to run.  What the movement conservatives can’t afford is for Roach to fail.

California Blog Roundup, 4/30/06

Today’s California Blog Roundup is on the flip. Longish, as it’s been a while. More regular roundups will resume shortly. Teasers: Marc Cooper on the state of the Democratic Party, the horse race (meh), PPIC exposes some “and a pony” thinking on education, 15% Doolittle, Paid-For Pombo, the impending Roach / Bilbray primary in CA-50, electoral and finance reform, and last, miscellany.

This roundup does not include any posts from yesterday, as I was at the CDP Convention. I’ll try to post a supplement and a Convention after-action later today.

  • Marc Cooper has written a great article / blog post at LA Weekly concerning the schlerotic California Democratic Party and the extent to which the primary race for the Democratic gubernatorial candidacy is determined by ridiculous endorsement races, money tracking, all aided and abetted by the punditocracy and punditeriate more interested in color commentary on the horse race than actual issues.
  • And speaking of horse race crapola, we have the Westly complaint against Angelides lodged with the Fair Political Practices Commission. I have a hard time taking seriously the Westly campaign mouth noises about positive campaigning (including Westly’s prepared speech for the CDP convention) when they’re pulling this kind of stuff.
  • Frank Russo has a pretty good thumbnail of the recent PPIC poll on the most important issue for Californians: the state of our education system. Of particular interest, most likely voters want to increase funding for education, but they don’t really want to do what’s necessary to pay for it. And of course, Phil Angelides is willing to step up and challenge this “and a pony” kind of thinking that the Republicans exploit, for which he’ll no doubt be punished. See also Bill Bradley.
  • Alliance for a Better California points us to a pair of SacBee articles comparing the recent Angelides & Westly ads.

CA-04, CA-11, CA-50

Reform

Miscellany

California Blog Roundup, 4/26/06

Today’s Blog Roundup is on the flip. Teasers: Feingold in LA, CA-11, CA-50, CA-36, gas gouging, a little on the Dem Gov Primary, and a lot of neat stuff in “Other”.

Feingold Blogger Lunch

OK, first of all, some Los Angeles bloggers got to lunch with Russ Feingold yesterday. Here are their reports:

CA-11

  • Progressive 11th attended the Tracy Candidates’ Forum and reports back. Prog11 supports McNerney, near as I can tell, but assuming his report of Filson’s attitude toward the grassroots is correct, it isn’t very happy-making. More important, those grassroots are the people you need to run through brick walls for you in the general, so you might not want to dump on them in the primary.
  • Jerry McNerney was interviewd on the Quake today.

CA-50

CA-36

    Marcy Winograd, the primary challenger to Jane Harman in CA-36, introduced herself at MyDD (and yes, we need to send them an email). The comments are interesting. Down with Tyranny is all for Marcy.

Black Gold! Texas Tea!

Dem Gov Primary

“Other”

California Blog Roundup, 4/25/06

Today’s California Blog Roundup is on the flip. Teasers: the independent expenditure campaign for Angelides, a bit more on the Angelides/Westly matchup, Governor Schwarzenegger’s manifest and multitudinous failings, the import of CA-50 and the Republican swift-boating of Francine Busby, more 15% Doolittle and his defenders moral relativism, Paid-For Pombo’s self-dealing and propaganda, and some miscellaneous commentary I found interesting on Di-Fi, Bush’s visit, California Senate Staffers, etc.

The Angelides / Westly Matchup

Governor Schwarzenegger

CA-50

  • Chris Bowers at MyDD ponders whether a Busby win in the runoff would be a harbinger for realignment, and whether a loss would indicate the opposite.
  • Francine Busby responds to the Republican swiftboat-style ads in CA-50. Turns out those ads are pretty much all lies and distortions. Whoda thunk it?
  • Words Have Power notes that the NRCC, which is paying for the ad, seems to have no-one able to comment on it. Apparently the ad sprang organically from the Republican party infrastructure in the dark of night (rather like a mushroom).

15% Doolittle / CA-04

Paid-For Pombo / CA-11

Smörgåsbord

California Blog Roundup, 4/19/06

Today’s California Blog Roundup is on the flip. Teasers: No cash for levees, Bush visits, Arnold photo-ops, clean money, minimum wage, education, public health, Rovism resurfaces, Paid-For Pombo, outside influence in CA-11, CA-50.

P.S. Yr. Humble Editor will be unavailable for several days; the Blog Roundup will return on Monday.

Pot-Pourri is at the top today

Governor-ish

Paid-For Pombo / CA-11

CA-50