I told you I’d be back bright and early! Well, all in all, a pretty good night.  So, let’s get to some results:

Yes, Arnold won.  But the only thing he proved is that the Democratic vision for this state is alive and well.  By co-opting our platform, Arnold showed that the Republican vision for this state is just not one that we are prepared to deal with.

CA-11: Jerry won!  Ding-dong the environmental witch is dead. Congratulations, this was really a victory for the netroots, a victory for ethics, and a victory for the environment.

Arnold’s coattails were non-existent, well, unless you can add Poizner’s $15million of his own money to those tails. The GOP took only the two statewide races, Gov and InsComm, and they were resoundigly defeated elsewhere.

• CA-LtG: McClintock’s name ID wasn’t sufficient to propel him over the top and John Garamendi will be our next lite gov.  I know this position is essentially powerless, but would you really want McClintock to have gubenatorial powers when Arnold leaves the state?  Or to give him any further platform? Me neither.
• CA-SoS: Woohoo! Debra Bowen won!!! Finally, somebody will address the issues of electoral integrity from the SoS office. Bowen will be a phenomenal SoS.  You’ve done a good job, California.
• CA-Controller: All that money that Intuit and the Indian gaming interests dumped into IEs for Strickland were completely unsuccessful.  Chiang won this one going away.  Again, he’ll do a great job.
• The less competitive races: As expected Jerry Brown defeated Pooch and Lockyer defeated the repo’d man. Both were far better than their scary competition.
• CA-InsComm: Well, Poizner was right, we cruzed, we losed.  Next time, we’ll get some better candidates.  However, in the interim, Poizner is now primed to run for governor, the position he wanted anyway.  It’s time to start branding him the way we want.

DiFi won.  Oh look, we have our “independent” senator back. We missed our shot to push her back to the left by running a primary challenger, but I think we learned a lesson from CA-36, where Marcy Winograd forced Jane Harman to pay attention to her consitituents. Perhaps that’s a lesson that some other Congress people should pay attention to

Right now it looks like Lynn Daucher(R) won by 13 votes in SD-34.  Yes, thirteen. Currently the tally stands at 38,666 for Correa and 38,679 for Daucher.  There will be a recount for sure and a thorough counting of all ballots and a check for provisionals.  There was a lot of dirtiness in the OC’s elections, so this one is far from over.

Props: Well paint me stupid.  I thought that some of the bonds would go down, but it looks like they all came through easily.  Hmm, well, I was wrong. It happens sometimes when you go out on a limb, but Arnold and the DemGang went all out in the last two weeks and that seems to have worked.  However, Props 85 and 90 were both defeated.  Yay! Maybe they will stop trying to put that stupid parental notification on the ballot again and again.  But I doubt it. This time it was beaten more soundly receiving only 45.9%,as compared to 47.2 last year. 

We barely squeaked by on Prop 90.  Whew!! That was way too close for comfort at 47.4% Yes. We’ll need to address paid signature gathering soon.  I’m really sick of the Howie Rich’s of the world coming here and trying to mess with our system.

Props 86-89 all failed.  The forces against them, Big Tobacco, Big Oil, the monied special interests and well I don’t know about 88, but they just got wiped out by the TV ads.  They obfusicate the issue and hope people will just vote no.  It worked this time.  Next time we’re going to work just as hard.  Particularly, Clean Money and the Alternative Energy/Oil Tax were good ideas. You haven’t heard the last of them.

Ok, I’ll be back soon; I need to take a nap.

I figured this might be a nice thing to share, since a lot of people don’t know some of the downticket races and props so much… again these are my views, and not that of Calitics.

Hi everybody, so I filled out my absentee ballot and already sent it in, it’s the only way to fly in Oakland since our know nothing Elections Supervisor bought a bunch of Sequoia systems fraud machines despite popular outcry… anyway here’s how I voted:

Partisan Offices – statewide
—-
Governor – Phil Angelides
Lt. Governor – John Garamendi
Secretary of State – Debra Bowen
State Controller – John Chiang
State Treasurer – Bill Lockyer
Attorney General – Jerry Brown
Insurance Commisioner – Cruz Bustamente (with waffling)
United States Senate – (blank) or Diane Feinstein (see below)
United States Representative – Barbara Lee
State Assembley – Sandre Swanson
Judges – re-elect
Statewide propositions.
Proposition 1A-NO!
Propositions 1B-1E Yes.
Proposition 83 – NO!!
Proposition 84 – Yes
Proposition 85 – FUCK NO!!!
Proposition 86 – Yes
Proposition 87 – HELL YES!
Proposition 88 – No
Proposition 89 – YES YES YES! HELL YES!!
Proposition 90 – NO!
—
City of Oakland
—
Measure M – yes
Measure N – YES!
Measure O – YES YES YES!

The “why’s” are below the cut.

Partisan Offices – statewide
Governor –
Phil Angelides

It’s an easy decision really, Arnold has been playing the part of a moderate ever since he got his ass handed to him in the last “special election”. Phil Angelides, has the brains, the know how, and the plan to lead this great state, and it’s the rare case where the establishment backed candidate is actually the best one of the bunch. It breaks my heart that his idiot campaign manager is such a fool and might blow it.

Let’s be clear, no Democrat or Independent should vote for Arnold… Period.

oh and Pete Camejo used to be cool, but is kind of a dick now.
I voted for him over Gray Davis, and would gladly do so again, but the Democratic Nominee is a Pragmatic progressive, what the hell is Pete doing in this race anyway?

I really hope Phil can pull it off, but rather then just hope, i’m going to canvass and call for him this weekend.

Lt. Governor –
John Garamendi
Tom McClintock is an asshole. One of the biggest assholes in CA.
Garadmendi is kind of “eh.” but has his moments. I’m not his biggest supporter like some folks, but he’s good… I like Phil a hell of a lot better personally. He’s big on stem cell research… so am I, ’nuff said.

Secretary of State –
Debra Bowen
uh… Verified Voting activist/superstar vs. Arnold’s Diebold loving appointee?
no fracking contest. I am totally all about Debra Bowen, and you should be too.

State Controller –
John Chiang
He’s a good dude.

State Treasurer –
Bill Lockyer
I could make a statement about the statewide office “revolving door”, but i’ll save that for my buddy Cruz.
Lockyer has done a decent enough job as AG, why not let him handle the money?
Sure.

Attorney General –
Jerry Brown
I had my issues with him as mayor of my city, and it bugs me that he’s so adamant on the very Draconian Death Penalty, but Poochigian is far worse and has way more of a douchebaggy name. ha ha! I guess Jerry’s plan is to hold every office in the state before he dies…

Insurance Commisioner –
Cruz Bustamente
I literally felt dirty in the recall after I voted “NO” (esp. since Gray Davis was an ass and I wanted him gone, just not that way), and then voted for Bustamente, even though I really wanted to vote for Arianna. I have rarely felt “dirty” after voting except for when I voted for that useless waste of flesh. The ONLY thing I can think of that he did that I liked was the lawsuit against Enron after the rolling blackmail… which was admittedly heroic and kind of awesome. Otherwise… he’s a jackass! And… it seems like you see the same 6 or 7 names every cycle as they all play this game of musical chairs changing positions. Totally lame. Ugh, a tactical vote at best… but at least i get to vote FOR Phil and Debra this cycle.

United States Senate –
Oh DiFi! DiFi, DiFi, DiFi… you bum me out, i’m glad this will be your last Senate term, as you are a constant source of elitism and frustration. I hate that you are so beholden to big business, you’re most “reliable” when it comes time for the one liberal boilerplate issue I am most mushy on… gun control. I hate that you embolden torturers, and need to have crushing amounts of public outrage before opposing real a-holes like John Roberts confirmation. There are a few things you are ok on, but overall, the only reason to vote for you is because Democrats need to take control of the Senate to keep checks and balances and such around. I may vote for you, I may not… I wrote myself in for the primary, because quite frankly, I could do a hell of a lot better job. If I do vote for you, it’s because Dick Mountjoy, while a wonderful pr0nstar name would be a absolutely horrid Senator, not because you are worth a damn at all.

United States Representative-
Barbara Lee
One of my top 10 politicians ever, and my representative, if half of the congresspeople out there had even a quarter of her integrity and guts we’d be a lot better off.

State Assembley-
Sandre Swanson
Seems like a good dude, smart progressive type, and Babs likes him. Besides what am I going to do, vote “Peace and Freedom”? It’s Oakland baby!

Judges
re-elect all… got caught with my pants down on this one, but since I don’t have any beefs rightn ow, i’ll just be ready next time.

Statewide propositions.
Proposition 1A
NO!
I already have to do the legislatures job a couple times a year because so many props like this have the budget locked down.
fuggit. Transportation funding is vital, but mandatory amounts are dumb, and i’m sick of it, and having to research these stupid things.

NO!

Propositions 1B-1E
Yes.
I’m still pissed that this somehow has turned into “Arnold’s issue” when he had to be dragged kicking and screaming into it just in time for election season. But whaever… infrastructure is important.

Now again, don’t we elect a fracking legislature for this crapola???
STOP BOTHERING ME!!!

Proposition 83
NO!!
A Blatant sop to get out the religious types that are always concerned about “focusing on the family” as well as authoritarian a-holes. Look, I think sex offenders are horrible too, but this is Draconian! GPS monitoring for life?
That’s a slippery damn slope. All of the empty posturing that goes over sex offenders sickens me almost as much as the offending itself. Ok, not really… but still… come now. The standards are fine now.

Proposition 84
Yes
Bond measure make me curl up my lip like Billy Idol, because the mantra seems to be “borrow, borrow, borrow”, but this is about water safety and flood control. Every week in rainy times when I drive to Roseville and I see the Delta swelling, I get images of the levees and New Orleans.

no thanks.
It’s a begrudging yes, but a yes, nonetheless.

Proposition 85
FUCK NO!!!
Yet again another winger “base turner outter”, a “waiting period and parental notification before termination of a minor’s pregnancy”. Right, because it’s far too easy to have this horrible operation performed now right? I am for personal freedom, and that includes a woman’s right to have dominion of her own body, including minors.
I cannot emphasize FUCK NO, enough.

Proposition 86
Yes (with some waffling)
Sorry smokers! Try to see beyond the pocketbook on this one.
I’m all for everybodies personal freedom to fuck up their lungs and give themselves cancer, but we still don’t have real education about the drug that is tobacco and we need that.

a few concerns have been raised by some friends of mine on this… mainly that it goes to private hospitals and adds stuff into the constitution, which bums me out… but still, i’m a soft yes.

Proposition 87
HELL YES!
Reduce dependence on foreign oil? Reduce air pollution?
Wait, why would anybody be against this again?
Oh yeah… the oil companies.
Screw them!

Proposition 88
No
It sounds good on first read, property tax to pay for more funding for schools right?
It creates a bad amount of bureaucracy, and who decides what are “academically successful” schools anyway?
lame!
no.

Proposition 89
YES YES YES! HELL YES!!
This is the public financing of elections, if you are going to vote for only two things this year… well… then you are being silly, but the key is to vote for Phil Angelides and this. Because god damn… I mean GOD DAMN… this will fix soooo many of our problems. Not the least of which is that you need to be an eccentric billionaire to win a statewide race in this damn Nationstate of ours called CA.

Proposition 90
NO!
Uh… dude? Why are NY Libertiarians writing propositions for California?
Eminant domain is BS, but so is this:
From speakout:

This measure has so much to dislike that it brings together in opposition one of the most unusual alliances imaginable. Joining virtually every environmental group in the state in opposition are taxpayers rights groups, the California Chamber of Commerce, consumer groups, scientists and public health agencies and even the California Farm Bureau.

That a-hole Tom McClintock likes it too, so that should be reason enough to vote no. A good rule of thumb is if the left and right both agree on something, there’s probably something significant happening.

Pretty much everybody agrees this one is BS.
NO!

—

City of Oakland

Measure M
yes
Whatever. Some BS about the polce and fire retirement board… just reading about it made my attention wander, there’s no argument against, no penalty. If it wasn’t about peoples retirement I wouldn’t have voted either way at all.

Measure N
YES!
Kick ass new library at Henry J. Kaiser center?!
HELL YEAH!

edit: and also more funding for critical library infrastructure and other things my librarian friends can tell you more about.

Measure O
YES YES YES!
If you are against this Measure you are truly against Democracy… come on… ranked choice voting! Who loses? We’d be looking at city council member Aimee Allison if this already went through!
besides less elections = better in my book.

(The entire $650K of the Sacto ad buy will be going for Pombo. They must have some nasty polling. We can win this one. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Lots of goings on.  The new PPIC poll came out.  Bill Carrick thinks the likely voter model is overly generous to the GOP.

More teasers: Phil Angelides, John Chiang, Nicole Parra, The Bonds, NRCC getting desperate and more.

The NRCC is getting really, really worried about CA-11 and CA-04.  They took out a $650K ad buy in Sacramento.  That buys a lot of ads in Sacramento.  It’s not clear how much money is going to either candidate, but to be sinking so much money in these 2 districts this late in the game, indicates that they are scared.  Really scared.

Phil Angelides has released a new ad.  Check it out on his video page. It’s actually a pretty good ad, and it hits on the “good ideas” theme.  Not bad… It’s a statewide ad buy. 

CA-Gov: PPIC Poll pretty much holds steady, shows Schwarzenegger up by 18 points. Carrick says the poll is “weird” and “wrong”. It’s a slow and static look at the electorate. Carrick thinks their likely voter is a bit screwey. The Angelides people think the lead is smaller, more in line with the Rasmussen poll.

Speaking of that PPIC Poll, there are some numbers on the bonds on there.  I’ve said in the past that I think at least two of the the bonds will fail, and I was actually talking only about 1B-1E.  I actually think 84 will likely fail as well.  I think this year will be a really bad year for propositions in general.  People are really sick of voting on propositions, and will likely just end up voting no on most of the props.  Well, that’s my hunch anyway.  So, without further blabber, here are those bond #s:

Prop. 1B (Transportation-$19.9b)
Yes: 51%
No: 38%
Prop. 1C (Housing-$2.8b)
Yes: 56%
No: 34%
Prop. 1D (Education-$10.4b)
Yes: 51%
No: 39%
Prop. 1E (Levees/Flood-$4.09b)
Yes: 53%
No: 36%
Prop. 84 (Water/Parks-$5.4b)
Yes: 42%
No: 43%

Intuit is trying to buy itself some friends.  This time in the controller’s office.  Intuit, it seems, does not like when state governments do stuff, like provide services for free that it wants to sell.  Their big beef is that Westly pushed a system that allowed you to easily file your state income taxes electronically and easily, for free.  Ready Return was, and remains, an excellent idea.  It will likely only affect taxpayers with fairly simple taxes, that would likely go to H&R Block or some other similar service.  Too bad these companies are putting profits ahead of the interest of Californians.  Just business I suppose.  Support John Chiang for Controller.

Speaking of Chiang, he responds to those Independent Expenditures against him in the SF Chron.

In one of the few competitive races in the Assembly, Nicole Parra is locked up with an interesting race with Danny Gilmore.  Parra will likely win, but it’s been eventful, as reported in Capitol Weekly.

Anna Caballero is preparing to be a great legislator from Salinas. (Capitol Weekly)

I’m running a bit behind, so it will be a bit short today. Teasers: Willie is for…Willie, John Chiang needs our help, A Dependent Judiciary, Prop 90, and a mock vote.

Willie Brown supports well, whomever will pay attention to him.  In May, it was Westly, Today, it’s Arnold, tomorrow??

Arnold is pretending to be anti-Bush again.  Hmm, he’s angry about a lack of a plan for global warming? Well, he could start by rescinding that executive order.

The O.C. board of Supes, well, they don’t care much about Tan Nguyen’s letter.

Both candidates for governor are failing to do the right thing on Prop 90.  This is ridiculous pandering.  Just call a spade a spade. Prop 90 will be extremely harmful to the state.

An Indian gaming coalition is trying to buy the controller’s office. John Chiang needs our support.

Judges shouldn’t be elected at all.  But as long as they are, vote no on McGuiness.Oh, and the New Jersey same-sex marriage case should be handed down in a few hours.

Students at California’s high schools are voting in mock elections. Maybe they would do a better job than their parents.

The down-ballot Field Poll came out this morning, with pretty good, although unsuprising news for Democrats in statewide races. All 6 down ballot Dems are leading, and only SoS and Insurance Commissioner are really close right now.

However, these numbers should be taken with more than just a grain of salt. As shown in the table below, many voters have no opinion of either or both candidates. So much of this poll is really based on mere party affiliation. I suppose that it’s good to know that a D in a statwide race of unknowns still stakes you to a lead.

See the flip for the full table of information from the Field Poll. I’ll also put this in the extended of the Poll HQ.

Candidate	Field Poll 8/1/06
Lt. Governor	Poll Support	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion
John Garamendi (D)	48	46	17	37
Tom McClintock (R)	38	40	17	43
Attorney General	Poll Support	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion
Jerry Brown (D)	54	45	36	19
Chuck Poochigian (R)	33	9	7	84
Secretary of State	Poll Support	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion
Debra Bown (D)	38	10	6	84
Bruce McPhereson (R)	35	19	9	72
Treasurer	Poll Support	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion
Bill Lockyer (D)	52	43	16	41
Claude Parrish (R)	27	9	5	86
Controller	Poll Support	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion
John Chiang (D)	38	13	5	82
Tony Strickland (R)	27	11	8	81
Insurance Commissioner	Poll Support	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion
Cruz Bustamante (D)	43	38	43	19
Steve Poizner (R)	39	7	8	85

Well, the election last night had its ups and downs, but I think overall, it was an exciting night.  The Democratic voters elected a strong slate heading into the general election.  We’ll take them one by one.

Governor

Phil Angelides has officially claimed victory over Steve Westly. ( KGO7 has the victory speech video.) The campaign was mired in muck, but Angelides was ultimately able to emerge. I would have appreciated a clean campaign, but now the focus needs to shift to Schwarzenegger.  He’s already started his campaign, so we need to redouble our efforts and ensure that we can proudly claim Governor Angelides in the fall.

Lt. Governor

This was something of a nailbiter early, but John Garamendi’s lead grew throughout the night. I sincerely hope Jackie Speier will be back on the statewide stage.  I think throughout the campaign she looked like something of a rising star.  Garamendi was helped along by his allegations of improper insurance company harassment.  Garamendi will be taking on Tom McClintock, and you can’t help but be pretty confident about our chances there.  The California GOP does pretty poorly when they choose their idealogues, and Garamendi will continue that trend in November.

Secretary of State

This one wasn’t really that close.  I think ultimately it looked more like Debra Bowen ran a more focused campaign.  She primarily stuck to the issues that are important to the SOS position.  Deborah Ortiz’s campaign never really got any momentum.  Bowen has a formidable challenge in the primary in the person of incumbent, but unelected, Bruce McPherson, a so-called moderate.  Bowen has been campaigning on the issues of voting machines, and knows the issues.  This could be an important race, so keep an eye out for it.  It will likely fly below the radar for a while.

Controller

John Chiang and Joe Dunn ran fairly clean campaigns, and for that I am thankful.  Hopefully Dunn will be back, I think he has a lot to offer the state in terms of electability and vision.  Chiang will take on Tony Strickland, a corrupt GOP former assemblyman and leader of the Norquist-inspired California Club for Growth.  Thank you GOP for not nominating the more electable candidate, Abel Maldanado.

Treasurer

Current AG Bill Lockyer ran unopposed.  He will face anti-tax loon and BOE Member Claude Parrish.  Once again, thank you GOP for not nominating the more electable candidate, Keith Richman.

Attorney General

Jerry Brown won solidly, mostly based upon his name recognition.  Rocky Delgadillo ran a good campaign, but he just ran head-on to a popular former governor.  Again, I hope Rocky will be back.  I think he has a lot to offer the state.  Chuck Poochigian will be hard-pressed to seriously challenge Brown.

Insurance Commissioner

Current Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante easily defeated Kraft foods heir John Kraft.  The general will be an interesting race against wealthy businessman Steve Poizner.

The down-ballot Field poll was released this morning. So, I’ll run down the numbers, starting with the Constitutional offices.

Lt.Gov

Jackie Speier has moved into a small lead over John Garamendi, apparently all those billboards aren’t paying off for him like he would have hoped.  Liz Figueroa has continued to slide into oblivion.  Currently, Speier has 30%, Garamendi 25%, and Figueroa 8% with 37% undecided. It was thought by some that Figueroa would act as a spoiler for Speier, but that doesn’t seem to be playing out.  Figueroa has only 7% of women and only 5% in Speier’s and Figueroa’s home region of Northern California.  She is a bit stronger in Southern California at 10%, but this is probably just due to Latino identity politics.  Speier’s large lead amongst women might push her over the top in a primary that is dominated by women.  She currently leads 33-21-7 on that figure.  On the GOP Side, Tom McClintock is running unopposed.

Attorney General

Jerry Brown‘s name recognition, (and a Time Magazine feature story didn’t hurt on that account), without much in the way of campaign spending, has allowed him to retain his large lead over Rocky Delgadillo.  Currently Brown has 51%, Delgadillo 24%, and 25% are undecided.  I would go deeper into the numbers, but Brown seems to be dominant in all the crosstabs.  On the GOP side, Poochigian is running without siginificant opposition.

Controller

This race has flown under the radar, with a huge 63% undecided.  Joe Dunn is clinging to the slimmest of leads with 19 points, while John Chiang has 18.  Unsuprisingly, Dunn is doing better in Southern California (21-14) and Chiang better in Northern California (25-15).  This one will probably get a lot fewer people voting on it that the gov race, and name recognition just might push a state senator over a BOE member.  But, at this point, it’s too close to call.  And on the plus side, both campaigns in this race have run great campaigns.  I’m excited to see either man win.  On the GOP side, Strickland has a 43-32 lead over Maldanado.

Treasurer

Bill Lockyer is running unopposed.  On the GOP side, Keith Richman is leading small government loon and current BOE member Claude Parrish at 18-17 with 65 undecided.

Secretary Of State

Deborah Ortiz narrowly leads Debra Bowen at 25-19.  However, this might be merely identity politics as 65% is undecidided.  Ortiz seems to be holding her home region of Sacramento and NorCal (28-15), but with undecideds so high, it’s hard to glean much from the poll.  And another thing, am I totally missing something, or does Ortiz not have a campaign website?  That would be pretty crazy, and if so I would definitely have to publicly give my support to Bowen.  C’mon folks, technology is a big part of that job, get with the 21st century.  McPherson is running unopposed for the GOP nomination.

Prop 82

Prop 82 has been crashing in support recently.  And the news today is not good either.  Currently it’s losing by a margin of 41 Yes to 46 No.  The scare tactics used by the No on 82 folks seem to be working.  And I must admit, I’ve heard several very progressive people admit that they are a bit nervous about voting for the program.  I think at some level people just don’t like instituting such a large program via direct democracy.  Also, part of this is the additional taxes.  Those on the right jsut hate government, those on the left seem to want to use those taxes for other purposes.  However, I think it’s going to be a close race for 82.  The SacBee notes that:

Despite the new poll numbers, supporters say they believe they will win. They expect to do well among Democrats, who will be more likely to go to the polls to vote in the gubernatorial primary and other hotly contested Democratic races, said Nathan James, a spokesman for the Yes on 82 campaign.

“We always knew this election was going to come down to the wire,” James said. “We have a number of advantages going into this election.”

But opponents of Proposition 82, including the California Chamber of Commerce, have been pushing the arguments that the program would be too costly and would potentially drive private preschools out of business.

Pamela Zell Rigg, president of the California Montessori Council, said opponents were hoping voters would turn against the measure as they learned more about it. (SacBee 6/3/06)

So, obviously turnout will be key in all these races. But for Prop 82, where both parties get to vote and Ds are skewed in favor of 82(53-33) and Rs are skewed against 82 (25-65), the “who” of turnout will be key.  If many Republicans stay away from what is an otherwise uninteresting primary election for them, it might allow 82 to pass.