with only 12 precincts in Ventura County left to count, Hannah-Beth Jackson has a lead on Tony Strickland of just 386 votes out of over 300,000 cast.

Ventura County has gone for Strickland very slightly, but which way those 12 precincts lean is a crapshoot.  This one will go to a recount and to provisionals.

Despite the failure of Senate Democrats to legitimately contest the 2 seats necessary to gain a 2/3 majority, the one seat that is up for grabs, SD-19, is getting a lot of attention.  From Capitol Weekly:

If the Capitol looks a bit deserted this week, there’s a good reason: Some 200 staff workers have headed into the Ventura area for the hottest legislative battle of the year, pitting two former Assembly members for the Senate seat held by Tom McClintock, who is running for Congress.

Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson and Republican Tony Strickland are neck-and-neck in the 19th Senate District, a Republican stronghold that has experienced a recent surge in Democratic registrations. Political pros say the race is too close to call, and Senate leaders this week began pouring personnel into the zone to buttress the local campaigns. (Capitol Weekly 10/31/08)

Ooh, you can bet there will be fun times in Ventura County this weekend! I mean what can possibly be more fun than 200 legislative staffers. Partying, knocking on some doors, you know general mayhem.

Hey I know somebody who is a fan of general mayhem. Yes Tony Strickland, I’m looking at you, Mr. Sly Trickster.

• John Myers recaps the latest expenditure figures in the top legislative races. Unsuprisingly, the lone Senate race was the costliest race so far.  Currently over $8.5 Million has been forked over for little ol’ SD-19. The split between the two parties is pretty close on that one, but the biggest spender so far, according to the FPPC, is Californians for Jobs and Education.  The Chamber of Commerce provides most of that money. In the Assembly, AD-80 is the most expensive race at almost $6 million.  Manuel Perez is the preferred beneficiary of a bunch of that IE money, mostly from teachers and service employees.

• A coalition led by Change To Win has sent a letter to Arnold Schwarzenegger asking that he assign nonessential public employees to help at the polls on Election Day to facilitate the expected high turnout and long lines.  You can read the letter, which is quite good, at the link.

• The Governor formed a commission to study the tax structure. The idea was first put forth by Speaker Karen Bass, but this commission better do its job in, well, how’s a week sound?  Now, hop to it.

• Some athletes not to idolize: Jeff Kent (Dodgers) gave $15K to Yes on 8, and Philip Rivers (Chargers) gave $10 K to Yes on 4.  

I recently found these images on myspace, in an album of “dirty political tricks” from a random user in Kansas. From what I can gather the photos were from a book entitled “Dirty Political Tricks”. Recognize that smile?  Well, that’s none other than SD-19 Candidate Tony Strickland. It’s pretty hard to miss that smirk, but if you doubt it, compare the up-close picture over the flip with his photos on the web.

So, as far as I can tell, here’s story. If anybody has corrections, let me know.  Bob Larkin is a Republican who has run a couple of times for the Assembly. He ran against Tom McClintock in 1996 (Results here).  Young Tony Strickland, a McClintock acolyte, didn’t appreciate that.  So he stole Larkin’s signs, and posted negative bumper stickers on others.

Isn’t that cute? You have to wonder how a man who has such open contempt for (small d) democracy will behave in the Senate.  Well, we need only look to how he fought partisan battles rather than producing results in the Assembly.

By the way, Larkin has some dirt from back in his campaign against Audra Strickland in 2006:

California Financial Campaign Disclosures have shown that Audra and Tony Strickland have been profiting for personal use over $150,000.00 from political action committees and their own campaigns to pay for personal expenses. Tony Strickland’s campaign committee actually paid Audra Strickland’s Company $120,000.00. (source: California Secretary of State)

The choice is clear: Hannah-Beth Jackson is on our  Calitics’ ActBlue Page.

Tony Strickland with a stolen sign:

Obviously, with just over two weeks to go, there’s quite a bit going on.

• CA-46: The Daily Pilot, a local paper in the district, writes about Debbie Cook:

Neither campaign would release its polling numbers, but both acknowledged that the affluent, heavily Republican coastal district that has primed Rohrabacher for victories in excess of 20 points in every election for the last decade will not be quite as friendly to the GOP candidate this year.

General frustration with the Bush administration, which has overseen the rapid deterioration of the American economy, is one of the biggest factors in heralding the turnaround for Democrats, according to UCI political science professor Carole Uhlaner.

“Given the combination of a strong, well-known current official with good funding and the change in the national tide there’s a chance that Rohrabacher could lose,” Uhlaner said.

And our pal Todd Beeton of MyDD writes up the great event for Debbie I attended yesterday.  But the pivotal moment of the campaign might be tomorrow at 11:15am.  Dana Rohrabacher and Debbie Cook will debate for the only time in the campaign.  We all know that when Crazy Dana opens his mouth, bad things happen for him.  We’ve seen on a national level what can happen to candidates with loose lips and an extremist ideology – ask Michelle Bachmann.  So we’ll be monitoring the debate tomorrow.

• CA-03: For some reason, Bill Durston is taking very seriously the Sacramento Bee’s endorsement of Dan Lungren.  Through his outreach to supporters, the letters to the editor in the wake of the endorsement were entirely on Durston’s side.  I don’t think these newspaper endorsements mean much, but it is something incumbents can use in their advertising, so it does have an impact.  And frequently these local editorial boards are pushing a conservative agenda that is resistant to change.

Speaking of debates, Lungren and Durston also have one tomorrow.  So there should be a lot of post-debate highlights to discuss.

• CA-04: I tend to think that this story, flagged by Dante over the weekend, is just devastating for Tom McClintock, so I’m going to post it again.

Tom McClintock, a conservative Republican in a Democratic-dominated state Legislature, is the only state lawmaker to fail to shepherd a single piece of legislation into law in the last two years.

Not that he seems to mind […]

“I came to the conclusion a long time ago that minority legislators have a choice,” said McClintock, who has served for 22 years in Sacramento. “One is to tinker at the margins and win very minor victories on unimportant matters and the other is to try to drive the public policy debate on major issues, sacrificing legislative victories for broader policy victories.”

I think America has had just about enough of obstructionist ideologues with no interest in governing.  If the Brown campaign plays this right, McClintock is toast.  This invalidates his entire candidacy.  It doesn’t surprise me that wingnuts are trying to wrap social issues around Brown’s neck to try and distract from this.  But at a fundamental level, Tom McClintock is telling the voters of CA-04 that he won’t lift a finger in Congress for them.  Since the Democrats will retain the majority, McClintock as a Congressman would be a press release machine without even trying to pass legislation.  It’s not his job, he thinks.  

That is a death rattle for McClintock.

• AD-15: If Dianne Feinstein is popular anywhere, it’s out in districts in the Central Valley like AD-15, and so her endorsement of Joan Buchanan is notable, also because she’s a habitually lazy campaigner and doesn’t do much for Democratic candidates historically. She’s also endorsed Fran Florez in AD-30 and John Eisenhut in AD-26.  This is the region where her endorsement can have the most effect.

• AD-36: Here’s a good piece from Dick Price about Linda Jones, the longshot candidate out in this district in the Antelope Valley.  She is a special ed. teacher in Palmdale and a board of Trustees member, looking to become the first Democrat to represent this area since 1974.  She sounds good to me:

Indeed, after putting up token opposition in recent races and losing by landslide margins, Democrats have finally leveled the playing field, narrowing the difference between Republican and Democratic registration to just 1.6%, according to the Jones campaign. Earlier this year, the Antelope Valley Press reported that 74% of new voters were registering as Democrats, compared to just 4% as Republicans, with the remaining registering as “decline to states.”

The region’s dramatic growth has not come without costs.

“Jobs here are either in aerospace or retail, so often people have to go into Los Angeles for work,” Jones says. “A third of the people are commuting downtown-that’s hard on people, their families, their marriages, their pocketbooks, their health.”

In Sacramento, Jones would work for a “Green Jobs” initiative, diversifying the Antelope Valley workforce, for example, by fostering much-needed solar and wind power industries that would create good-paying local jobs so fewer people would have to undertake the brutal commute downtown.

It would be incredible to win this seat.

• AD-10: The Sac Bee thinks that the race between Alyson Huber and Jack Sieglock will come down to turnout:

The game-changer for Alyson Huber or Jack Sieglock could be voter turnout to cast presidential ballots, said Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of California Target Book, which handicaps legislative races.

“How they vote for Obama probably will be the most important factor,” Hoffenblum said of 10th District residents, who tend to lean to the right – but by a dwindling margin.

The GOP’s edge in registered voters has fallen the past four years from 6 percentage points to just 2, giving Democrats an outside chance of an Assembly upset if Obama’s draw is decisively higher than McCain’s, Hoffenblum said.

Well that’s just devastating to Sieglock, because the excitement gap is much higher for Obama.  Then again, he won’t be doing a lot of GOTV in California, so Huber’s going to need to run a strong operation of her own.  The two candidates are even in fundraising, but Huber is getting major IE help.

• AD-80: Great new ad from Manuel Perez:

• SD-19: The money is pouring into this race, as it’s the only one contested on the Senate side.  Tony Strickland has outraised Hannah-Beth Jackson by about $3 million to $2 million, but 53% of Strickland’s take is from business PACs.  Meanwhile, Strickland dropped an illegal mailer:

Tony Strickland has reached a new low in his dishonest campaign against Hannah-Beth Jackson. Yesterday, voters in the 19th District received a mailing from Strickland’s campaign titled “Hannah-Beth Jackson’s Economic Plan.” Inside, the mailing contained Strickland’s predictable false charges about Hannah-Beth Jackson and taxes.

The mailing was clearly designed to look like it was coming from Hannah-Beth Jackson’s campaign.

Expect an ugly last two weeks.

And away we, er, go.

• CA-03: Bill Durston, who is showing lots of strength in his race against Dan Lungren, has earned the support of the Alliance of Retired Americans, a 3.5 million-member group of retirees.  Clearly this came on the heels of Durston’s strong support for a not-for-profit health care system:

Dr. Durston has also been a strong proponent of universal health care. “It’s always been my philosophy that access to necessary medical care is a basic human right, not a privilege based on one’s ability to pay. We’re the only western industrialized country in the world that doesn’t have some form of universal health care, yet we pay twice as much per capita as the other countries for medical care.”

Durston is starting to get some major attention after that last poll.  Expect him to attack Lungren on his vote for the bailout over the next 27 days.

• CA-04: Lots going on here.  After vowing to shut down his account for 2010 statewide races, professional politician Tom McClintock just couldn’t close the door.

But four weeks before the Nov. 4 election, McClintock’s account remains open and active, as the Thousand Oaks lawmaker has doled out thousands of dollars to fellow Republicans in the last week.

McClintock made $3,600 donations, the maximum allowed under state law, to a trio of Republican candidates for the Legislature: Senate candidates Tony Strickland and Greg Aghazarian and Assembly hopeful Jack Sieglock.

His Democratic opponent, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown, made hay of McClintock’s multiple accounts over the summer, calling him a career politician in search of a job.

“What office are you running for?” Brown said in a July statement.

I just find it interesting that Republicans are that worried about Jack Sieglock.  Go Alyson Huber!  Of course, the other half of this is that McClintock is a huge hypocrite, but you knew that.

In other news, Charlie Brown has a new ad out comparing professional politician McClintock to his record of service.  Truth Fights Back, John Kerry’s group, is getting Charlie’s back over that ridiculous anti-military smear of McClintock’s.  Brown also signed the Children’s Defense Council’s Pledge to ensure affordable health care for every child and every pregnant woman.  I very much liked this strong take in the press release:

“Tom McClintock gets free healthcare, a free car, free gas, and tax free per diems he’s not entitled to, yet has voted to restrict the ability of Californians to see a doctor of their choice and fought against helping our most vulnerable citizens  access meaningful healthcare coverage,” said Retired USAF Lt. Col. Charlie Brown  “His record of inaction has not only helped drive up the cost of healthcare for every Californian, it’s illustrative of a career politician hypocrite who would rather serve himself, than solve problems.”

Earlier this year, McClintock authored SB 1669, which would have made it easier for health insurance companies to deny the health claims of Californians on the basis of pre-existing condition.  In fact, SB 1669 would have extended the period that insurers could look back in your medical history from 12 months to 10 years.  

“Tom McClintock’s idea of healthcare reform is writing a law that says if you have a medical problem, you can’t get healthcare coverage,” Brown said.  “This misguided bill  could have literally cost millions of Californians who have battled and overcome ailments ranging from diabetes, to mild cardiac conditions or cancer their lives.  It was so misguided, it never came up for a floor vote and not a single healthcare organization or institution signed on to support it.

Also, Mcjoan at the Great Orange Satan had a good piece based on some of her time in the district recently.  This is big:

The campaign has seven offices across the nine counties in the huge district, one of the most beautiful in the country, spanning the Sierras. With four regional field directors, seven organizers and 25 paid canvassers, the campaign has knocked on more than 120,000 doors and made over 300,000 phone calls. Hundreds of new Democrats have been registered. This is the kind of retail politics that allows Democrats to win in Republican districts, in fact it’s about the only way to run successfully in a tough district. McClintock, by contrast, has basically no field operation.

That ground game is going to win it for Charlie.

• CA-11: Continuing his quest to be the most overhyped Republican challenger this cycle, Dean Andal continues to dodge the question of whether or not he supported the Paulson bailout plan.  He literally has no idea how to handle it, preferring to hide behind the idea that it would be inappropriate to comment because he’s not in office.  Yeah, uh, that’s kind of the point.  You say how you would be different from the current office-holder as a means to get the job.  What a loser.

• CA-41, CA-45: Haven’t written much about Tim Prince’s race in San Bernardino County against Jerry “Lobbyists Are Funding My Congressional Portrait” Lewis, but somehow his campaign got the local paper to call it a tough race.

Prince criticized Lewis’ use of earmarks, the pet projects that lawmakers attach to spending bills, in some cases without a vote.

“Jerry Lewis is totally void of morality when it comes to earmarks,” he said, pointing to Lewis’ ties to Bill Lowery, a longtime friend and lobbyist. “When I’m congressman, the mayor of Beaumont and the mayor of Apple Valley can pick up the phone and call me for help. They don’t have to call a lobbyist who happens to be my best friend.”

One thing that Prince would be better advised to focus on is that his district has one of the highest rates of foreclosures in the entire country.  The highest?  CA-45, where Mary Bono-Mack is facing affordable housing expert Julie Bornstein.  If there was ever a reason to create a single-issue candidacy, this is it, and for Bornstein, who has an easier time of it with a less partisan electorate, that could be a real opening in the final month.

• SD-19: Calitics Match candidate Hannah-Beth Jackson is attacking Tony Strickland for greenwashing his environmental credentials in a very, shall we say, familiar way:

Of course, I’m happy to have provided the template for calling out Strickland on this nonsense.  There are in addition lots of IE attacks in this race as it nears the home stretch.

The latest from the campaigns:

• General: Democratic challengers ought to take a close look at two bills passed through the House this week that make conservative priorities pretty clear.  HR 6983, the Paul Wellstone and Pete Domenici Mental Health Parity Act, finally limits the ability of insurance companies to prohibit treatment of mental health in their policies.  John Campbell, Darrell Issa, Ed Royce and Dana Rohrabacher were among the 47 Republicans to vote against it.  HR 5244, the Credit Cardholders’ Bill of Rights Act of 2008, would severely limit predatory lending from an industry that is at least a partial cause of the current crisis in credit.  Brian Bilbray, David Dreier, Gary Miller, Jerry Lewis, Dan Lungren, Campbell, Issa, Royce and Rohrabacher were among the 111 Republicans who voted against that.  These ads write themselves.

• CA-03: Bill Durston is up with two ads, as mentioned by akogun.  It’s unclear how big the buy is.  One is a bio spot, and the other hits Dan Lungren for his, er, unique travel plans.

• CA-04: A lot to report here.  While Tom McClintock is off putting together propaganda blogs attacking Charlie Brown, and of all things, this website, he ought to be paying attention to his campaign manager problem.

The camp of Democratic candidate Charlie Brown claims evidence shows state Sen. McClintock, a Republican, effectively is a substitute Doolittle, and in particular asserts that McClintock campaign manager John Feliz’s connections to Doolittle are significant.

“John Feliz is the architect of Doolittle’s first known political-practices transgression,” said Todd Stenhouse, Brown spokesman. “The bottom line is McClintock claims not to be John Doolittle, yet he’s using his former campaign manager, and he has the same treasurer (David Bauer).”

McClintock campaign spokesman Bill George said, “John Feliz hasn’t worked for Doolittle in 18 to 20 years.”

Note that he doesn’t respond to Bauer, who is still the treasurer for an active Doolittle campaign committee.

Meanwhile, Charlie Brown has endorsed the Pickens Pledge.  I am in complete agreement that the Pickens Plan for energy independence is just a scheme for a rich guy to get richer, but the pledge merely calls for an energy plan to be enacted in the first 100 days of the next Administration.  There is a difference.

• CA-50: Al Gore was in the district to raise money for Nick Leibham.  The Leibham campaign hopes this will kick-start their efforts, but the Cook Political Report recently downgraded the race to “Solid Republican.”  Their belief is that these Republican districts have been injected with momentum with Sarah Palin energizing conservatives to vote.  We’ll see.

• CA-46: One thing is clear: Dana Rohrabacher may allow insurance companies deny treatment to the mentally ill, and he may let the credit card companies fleece his constituents, but he draws the line at the Wall Street bailout.  That’s nothing new – lots of lawmakers are opposed to the bailout – but of course, the fact that Debbie Cook was first out of the gate with her opposition forced his hand, to be sure.  Meanwhile, Cook was feted with a “Truth To Power” at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference this week.  On Sunday, there’s a small dollar fundraiser for Cook in Palos Verdes.  Details and tickets at the ActBlue page here.  I will be in attendance Sunday, so please come out if you’re in the area.

• CA-42: Ed Chau has put together a video about polar bears, which obviously is the most important issue affecting constituents in Mission Viejo at risk of losing their homes.  Or the ethical issues of his opponent Gary Miller, one of the most corrupt lawmakers in Congress.

• SD-19: Hannah-Beth Jackson has a new ad out with some personal testimonials about her leadership on a chemical spill in her district when she was in the Assembly, and I have to say I like it.

• LA Board of Supes: Bernard Parks is using his office to try to evict supporters of Mark Ridley-Thomas.  Mayor Villaraigosa has stepped in on the side of the tenants.

On Tuesday, Villaraigosa was forced into the fray – reluctantly, his aides said – after Parks had the city send a 60-day eviction notice to Strategic Concepts of Organizing and Policy Education, a nonprofit focused on community organizing and job training.

Parks said SCOPE was using the old fire station at 1715 Florence Ave. in South Los Angeles to help the Ridley-Thomas campaign, which the group denies.

Here’s what’s happening on the campaign trail.

• CA-11: Apparently trying to win some kind of award for the worst attack website in history, Jon Fleischman of the Flash Report (a terribly designed website in its own right) has put together One Term Is Enough, in all of its way-too-large masthead, ridiculously-spare with no action items or columns, design out of Quark X-Press glory.  Man, that’s ugly.  And I think the focus on Jerry McNerney’s earmarks, given the summer of scandal that Dean Andal has lived through which is entirely about a construction contract with a community college (if he was in Congress, that would be, basically, an earmark), is kind of silly.  Meanwhile, McNerney is up with his first ad of the cycle, focusing on his work on behalf of troops and veterans.

• AD-80: As soyinkafan noted, Manuel Perez and Gary Jeandron had a debate where Jeandron stated his support for a tax increase in Imperial County.  That’s not likely to help him with the conservative base, but clearly Jeandron understands that he has to move to left if he has any chance to win this seat.  The Palm Springs Desert Sun has a debate report here.

• SD-19: Tony Strickland’s latest endorsement is Erin Brockovich, of all people.  However, this could be less of a reach across the aisle as it appears.

Ventura County Star columnist Timm Herdt got Strickland’s Democratic opponent Hannah-Beth Jackson on the phone, who said she was “a little surprised” by Brockovich backing her opponent.

While Brockovich says she is a Democrat in the ad, she writes on her blog that she’s ready to leave the party and become an independent.

“I am ready to turn because both parties are acting foolish and judgmental and attacking,” she writes.

She also has kind words for GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.

“I am proud to be a member of the same Strong Woman’s Club that Sarah Palin is in.” Brockovich writes.

• AD-15: As has been noted, Joan Buchanan released her first campaign ad of the cycle.  Her opponent Abram Wilson responded with his own ad, also biographical in nature, and his campaign has questioned the Buchanan spot and her commitment to fiscal responsibility.  I suppose signing a “no-tax” pledge is the height of responsibility, then.

• AD-30: We were all expecting it, and now Nicole Parra has officially endorsed Republican Danny Gilmore in the election to replace her.  This is a family fight moved into the political sphere – the Parra-Florez feud is well-known.  

Parra’s support of Danny Gilmore angered Democratic Party leaders, but comes as no surprise because she has been praising Gilmore for months.

“I will endorse Danny Gilmore in the near future and I will campaign for him and do commercials,” Parra said in an interview. Gilmore, a retired California Highway Patrol officer from Hanford, is running against Democrat Fran Florez, mother of state Sen. Dean Florez, D-Shafter, a longtime Parra rival.

• LA Board of Supes: Turns out that not only is Bernard Parks turning to Republicans to help him get elected over progressive State Sen. Mark Ridley-Thomas, but for ten years he was a member of the American Independent Party (!).

According to voter registration forms certified by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder:

Bernard Parks left the Democratic Party and registered as an American Independent on February 12, 1992 – just in time to miss the opportunity to vote for President Bill Clinton.

He registered again as an American Independent on August 9, 1996.

President George Bush was elected in November 2000 – but Parks still wouldn’t become a Democrat for nearly a year and a half.

Parks was fired as Chief of the Los Angeles Police Department on April 9, 2002. Shortly thereafter, he began to prepare to run for Los Angeles City Council, and re-registered as a Democrat on May 30, 2002. Less than a year later, he was elected to the City Council.

That is very strange, especially for an African-American to sign up with a party which is the legacy of George Wallace.