Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has released a new poll showing Nick Leibham well-positioned to knock off xenophobe Brian Bilbray in CA-50.

A building Democratic wave is about to hit San Diego beaches. The campaign of former prosecutor Nick Leibham is surging, and Leibham is now in a statistical dead heat with incumbent Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray, 42 to 44 percent.

Key Findings

Leibham launched an extremely effective and aggressive mail and television advertising blitz against Bilbray that features a four-star general criticizing Bilbray’s vote against the G.I. Bill. As a result, Leibham has pulled into a statistical tie with the incumbent (42 to 44 percent) after trailing by 19 points (35 to 54 percent) as recently as August.

Barack Obama is also running strong in California’s 50th Congressional District, leading John McCain by double digits (53 to 41 percent). The environment is now ripe for Democratic victories in a district George W. Bush won by 11 points – twice. Concerns about the economy dominate the political landscape, President Bush is more unpopular than ever, and five out of six voters think the country is off on the wrong track.

Leibham’s strong position is due to his appeal beyond Democratic base voters. He currently wins four out of five (79 percent) Democrats, while Bilbray wins three out of four (75 percent) of Republicans. The biggest difference, however, is that Leibham holds a 16-point advantage among voters not aligned with either party (48 to 32 percent)

Democrats have been coming close in this seat ever since the Duke-Stir, Randy “Duke” Cunningham, was sent to jail in 2006.  Francine Busby lost a special election and then the general election to Bilbray.  The third time may be the charm.

Adding to Bill Durston in CA-03 and Debbie Cook in CA-46, now Nick Leibham has some poll numbers showing a virtual tie:

You can now add Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-CA 50) to the new heap of GOP incumbents who should be suddenly very worried. A new poll, conducted for atty/ex-San Diego City prosecutor Nick Leibham’s (D) camp, shows him trailing Bilbray by a miniscule 44-42% margin.

This may feel like deja vu for GOPers. In the ’06 special election to fill imprisoned-Rep. Duke Cunningham’s (R) term, Bilbray needed $4.5M from the NRCC to skate by a relatively lackluster Dem. What’s worrisome for Bilbray is that the cash-starved NRCC can’t afford to put anywhere near that amount in his CD to save it this year. And the DCCC has enough cash, if it chooses to enter the contest, to make a difference. The NRCC simply can’t afford to overwhelm Dem efforts here like they did in ’06.

This is particularly acute in CA-50.  Leibham beat Bilbray in fundraising in the third quarter, and they are almost even in cash on hand.  Which means that, barring a life raft from the national party, Bilbray is largely on his own.  And he doesn’t have much to run on.  Here he is whining about that powerful ad from Leibham supporter Joe Hoar, a retired Marine General, which ripped Bilbray for voting against the new GI Bill:

Bilbray said he was one of the GI Bill’s original co-sponsors, but voted against it after congressional Democrats loaded it up with extraneous goodies, including a “massive tax increase” and a foreign aid package for Africa and Mexico.

“That’s the kind of cynical tactics we said ‘no’ to,” the Carlsbad Republican said. “We forced it to come back as a clean bill and we were able to pass it and it was signed into law in June.”

Actually, it wasn’t a clean bill at all, it was folded into an Iraq appropriation.  And he objected to it initially because it was funded by a tax on millionaires.

Liebham supporters have put up an attack website called Wrong Way Bilbray highlighting his votes.  Now that the campaign has settled into attacking Bilbray on the issues, with the Democratic wind at their backs, they are gaining traction.

And more than CA-50, what we’re seeing is an across the board re-evaluation of Republican incumbents, with multiple GOPers in trouble.

(Updated with new information at the bottom… – promoted by David Dayen)

The FEC reports are starting to come in for our candidates.  I’ll update them here, but the preliminary numbers are very strong.

• CA-50: Wow.  Nick Leibham raised $413,000 in the third quarter, his best quarter of the cycle by a factor of four.  With $334,000 cash on hand, he’s going to be able to get his message out in the final weeks.  As much as anything, this is why Leibham is Red To Blue.  No word on Brian Bilbray’s take yet.  Leibham’s latest ad uses a local war hero to hammer Bilbray for his vote against the new GI Bill, and it’s very powerful, a great improvement over the attention-getting stunts from earlier in the year.  I’m starting to feel good about this race.

• CA-45: Julie Bornstein raised around $102,000 in Q3, while Mary Bono Mack raised $245,000.  The cash on hand situation shows Bono Mack with $462,548 in the bank compared to Bornstein’s $179,308.  That’s not terrible, especially if the DCCC steps in with some outside help – they just added Bornstein to their emerging races list (along with Bill Durston in CA-03).  Her latest ad, showing Bono Mack as a rubber-stamping bobblehead, is spot-on (“Do you think George Bush is right 92% of the time?”)

• CA-52: In our toughest winnable race, Mike Lumpkin raised $107,000 and has $125,000 CoH, and Duncan D. Hunter raised $290,000 with $321,000 CoH.  It’ll take a monumental effort to win this one, but I don’t consider it impossible.  Lumpkin just got put on the D-Trip’s Races To Watch page, along with Russ Warner (CA-26).

• CA-46: A nice writeup about canvassing for Debbie Cook from friend of the blog Andrew Davey (atdleft).

more money updates when they roll in…

UPDATE: Debbie Cook raised $114,000 and has $181,000 in the bank.  Nothing yet from Dana Rohrabacher.  Will she outraise him three quarters in a row?

UPDATE: More numbers:

CA-04:

Charlie Brown: raised $539K, $456K cash on hand.  GREAT numbers.

Tom McClintock: raised $978K, but spent a ton, and has only $94,000 left, with $110,000 in debts.  He is BROKE.  Brown has an infinite lead in CoH.

CA-03:

Bill Durston: raised $149K, $145K CoH.

Dan Lungren: raised $173K (wow, Durston almost outraised him), $680K CoH.  Dr. Bill is going to need some help.

CA-26:

Russ Warner: raised $289K, which is great, but he’s spent a lot early.  He has $119K CoH.

David Dreier: raised $255K.  Wow, Warner outraised Dreier.  He still has $1.7 million in the bank, and he doesn’t seem to be using the money.  He only spent $345K in Q3.  I don’t know if it’s for leadership purposes or what, but he has a hell of a war chest that he’s not using.

CA-11:

Jerry McNerney: raised $601K, $1.02 million CoH.

Dean Andal: raised $345K, with $850K CoH.  Some prize recruit.

CA-50:

Brian Bilbray: This was the number I was waiting for.  He raised $262K and has $382K CoH.  OK, Nick Leibham didn’t just beat Bilbray in Q2, he destroyed him.  And the cash on hand is virtually even.  Wow.

CA-46:

Dana Rohrabacher: Drum roll… raised $148K.  OK, he beat Debbie Cook for once.  The CoH is $497K, but much like Dreier, he’s spent next to nothing.  $35K in the quarter.

Overall, these are good numbers.  Lots of our candidates have the resources they need.  Keep up the pressure.

Things are happening very quickly in the most hotly contested campaigns in California.  Here’s an update:

• CA-04: Watching himself falling behind in the race to replace John Doolittle, perennial candidate Tom McClintock decided to borrow one of his predeccesor’s smear campaigns and release an ad claiming that Charlie Brown dishonored servicemen by appearing at an anti-war rally.

The idea that wearing a camouflage jacket constitutes being “in uniform” is ridiculous, and so is the idea that a retired military officer has no free speech rights.  But the idea is to smear Charlie as some kind of radical leftist and anti-military, despite Brown’s long record of supporting veterans and McClintock’s longer record voting against them.

The ensuing press conference put on by the McClintock campaign was a wild affair.

SACRAMENTO – A press conference on congressional candidate Charlie Brown’s actions in 2005 at the home of an anti-war display nearly descended into conflict itself, with disruptions before, during and after the event and a near-appearance by police officers […]

But before the event even began, a handful of Brown supporters – accompanied by Brown’s campaign manager, Todd Stenhouse – were asked to leave so that they wouldn’t cause a disruption.

One man loudly protested that as a military veteran and the father of an active-duty U.S. soldier, he felt he could stay. “This is not Russia,” he said.

McClintock campaign consultant John Feliz and Stenhouse eventually got the man to agree to leave, but not before security at the Hyatt hotel where the press conference took place made calls to Sacramento police to remove the man […]

But a third man who was with the veterans pointed out that Brown was within his First Amendment right to do so, prompting Feliz to ask him to leave as well, while also saying Brown should re-enlist and face a court martial for his actions.

The man, who gave his name as Bret Sherlock, said afterward that he attended because he was tired of non-veterans like McClintock smearing veterans like Brown.

“Did he do anything illegal?” Sherlock said of Brown, adding that if anyone should be able to protest the war, it should be Brown, as both a veteran and a father of a soldier who has served four tours of duty in Iraq.

McClintock campaign spokesman Bill George said the video came from a “concerned citizen.” Neither McClintock nor Brown appeared at the press conference.

After the press conference concluded, Stenhouse tried to give McClintock’s campaign a pledge to join a Brown program that donates 5 percent of Brown’s campaign contributions to nonprofit community groups that work with charities.

Feliz angrily took it and threw it down without looking at it.

They don’t want to talk about issues.  So McClintock tries to smear a decorated veteran to win an election.  Typical.

More on the flip…

• CA-11: We’ve talked before about Dean Andal’s embarrassing fall from Congressional contender to also-ran, but it’s just getting worse and worse.  The questions over Andal’s role in a botched construction project at a local community college have continued, and he’s also been caught lying about his claim that he’s raised more money than any Congressional challenger in the country.  Now his mailers are hitting mailboxes throughout the district, and they’ve been revealed as lies.

What it says: “Instead of taking action to fix America’s energy crisis, ruling Democrats shut down Congress this month (August) for a five-week vacation – with Democratic Congressman Jerry McNerney casting the deciding vote to adjourn.”

Is it true? No. The vote was 213-212 in favor of adjournment. Under Andal’s argument, all 213 members of Congress who voted in favor of the annual summer break were the “deciding vote.”

Besides, party leaders don’t let freshmen decide anything.

It’s almost sad how bad Andal is doing.  The NRCC isn’t even spending in the district.

• CA-50: The latest registration numbers for the district are in, and while Republicans continue to hold an 11-point lead, the trend is in Democrats’ favor.  Republicans are also perilously close to the 40% registration line, under which it becomes harder for them to win, as more independent voters lean Democratic.  I don’t know if Paris Hilton ads and chicken suits will get it done for Nick Leibham, whose campaign is clearly just trying to get in the headlines.  But there are lines of attack on Bilbray, particularly over his single-minded focus on immigration and not the pocketbook issues that affect people’s lives, though Bilbray is enough of a nut to say that the two are functionally equivalent.

• CA-26: There’s another smear campaign going on in this race, where David Dreier and the NRCC are trying to hold onto this seat by dredging up old news about Russ Warner and old tax liens and business license payments.  These are incidents from as far back as 1992, and Warner’s business license has since been reinstated.  It’s a pretty negative mailer considering that Dreier sounds so confident about victory.  Warner is now out with his own mailer highlighting Dreier’s many ties to special interests (like the $200,000 he’s received from oil and gas companies).  The fact that Dreier and Bush agree 94% of the time makes an appearance as well.  The fact that this race is getting so nasty so early suggests that Dreier has seen some polling that has him worried.  Maybe it’s because the Inland Empire is gradually turning blue and Dreier’s days of easy campaigns are numbered.  Enough of the district is in the IE for that to matter.

• AD-80: Manuel Perez has snagged the endorsement of the Sierra Club.  They also have an ad up on the air, which is notable for an Assembly candidate.  

In 2006, a corrupt GOP lobbyist, Brian Bilbray, took over the congressional seat of another corrupt GOP lobbyist, Duke Cunningham.  Both are buddies of Jack Abramoff.  Bilbray faces a tough re-election fight this year against Nick Leibham.

Let’s help get Nick Leibham elected.  Nick was a high school teacher (he taught government and U.S. history) and criminal prosecutor for the County of San Diego.  (After the fold, I’ll provide a little more background about Nick Leibham and what he stands for, and what he’s up against.)

DONATE TODAY to help Nick Leibham (and other forgotten candidates).

In addition to donating, please help optimize this article about Brian Bilbray, who is the incumbent GOP congressman.  (To help do this, simply link to the articles on your own blogs / blogrolls / websites just like I did, using Brian Bilbray as the link text.)

Despite the generally conservative slant of the district, Nick isn’t running away from what he stands for, as evidenced in this interview.  Take for example his take on Iraq:

Each and every day we remain in Iraq we’re compromising our national security further. It’s a blood feud that goes back 1400 years between the Sunnis and Shiites. American military forces are not going to be able to sort this out for them and at the end of the day they’ve got to want peace; they’ve got to want their own stable form of government; they’ve got to want democracy more than the American Marine Corps wants it for them

The longer that we’re there, the more strain it puts on our own men and women in uniform. They’re going out on third, fourth, fifth tours of duty, and you read about it all the time of course because we’re just miles away from Camp Pendleton

We need to come out and we need to set a date certain for when we are going to redeploy out of Iraq.

Nick understands what makes this election different:

We win this fight because their platform is old and it’s worn out…The Reagan Revolution…which started really in 1964 with Goldwater’s defeat…it culminated in 1980 and 1994 and the end of the Bush years are a bookend. It’s tired, it’s played out, and it no longer offers up a positive agenda for America. This isn’t just a change election in the sense of Democrats or Republicans.  This is a paradigm shifting election and Democrats can capture that…they’ve got a lot of work to do but we can capture it and I think the pendulum is swinging our way.

Regarding current hot button issues such as FISA, Nick has taken a stand:

What’s much MUCH more disconcerting to me is the entire FISA bill…As somebody who has been a prosecutor and dealt with the 4th Amendment, I can tell you that this happened to have been the one amendment in the Bill of Rights that all the Founding Fathers could agree upon; that in order for government intrusion there had to be probable cause signed off on by an independent magistrate that says you may have committed a crime. I find the entire FISA process to be constitutionally dubious. That doesn’t mean that it couldn’t be made constitutionally valid but I think that anytime you have wiretaps involved…that deals with an American citizen, you’ve got to have a court sign off on it.  The only question in my mind is whether or not that has to be done prior to the warrant being executed or whether or not there is some grace period.  There is no doubt in my mind that the executive branch itself cannot act as both overseer and executioner (of warrants or wiretaps). That, I think, is constitutionally impermissible; I think it’s a violation of the judiciary’s proper role of interpreting laws.

As a former prosecutor [and] law clerk in the US Attorney’s office in the Major Frauds and Economic Crimes section…I’ve never heard of anybody being given immunity when you don’t know what they’ve done. It’s not how the immunity process works.  You don’t say to somebody “Whatever you’ve done, don’t worry about it.”…It’s unthinkable to me as a lawyer and as somebody who will have…sworn to uphold the Constitution that I could ever support that.

Nick is running in this North San Diego county district against the corrupt incumbent Brian Bilbray (who is a former Washington lobbyist and beneficiary of none other than Jack Abramoff).  The CA-50 district, shown below, is a traditionally Republican district that is on the verge of going Democratic.

The district is a bit of a mix of things: it has several wealthy cities in the Southern half of the district and several middle-income cities with more military voters in the Northern half of the district (in part due to the military base to the North).  However, Brian Bilbray, the incumbent GOP congressman, isn’t particularly popular, perhaps in no small part because of the district’s trouble with previous GOP representatives (say, Duke Cunningham).  Here’s an excerpt from an article on Bilbray from the local San Diego paper:

Perhaps it is also rough being Brian Bilbray. He’s the congressman-turned-lobbyist-turn-ed-congressional candidate who must convince voters that he is part of the solution to the ethically challenged climate on Capitol Hill, rather than part of the problem.

…

The Hill, a Capitol-area newspaper, reported last summer that several sources, including one GOP lawmaker, complained that Bilbray used his floor privileges as an ex-member to lobby in the House chamber. Bilbray denied the allegation. “I’ve never done that. That’s not right,” he said.

Several Washington scandals, including Cunningham’s, have focused new attention on relationships between those in Congress and the people hired to influence their votes. The most high-profile lobbying corruption case of late involves Jack Abramoff, who pleaded guilty to defrauding his clients and conspiring to bribe members of Congress.

Bilbray was also among those who benefited from trips that Abramoff arranged for members of Congress, once accepting an Abramoff trip to the Pacific Islands. Bilbray said he knew Abramoff through a surfing buddy, and that the relationship was “very tenuous.”

Now that you see what Nick is up against, please consider helping in one of the following simple ways:

1.  Help optimize articles about Brian Bilbray.  (This is similar to the Searching for John McCain project.)  Link to this article about Brian Bilbray.

2.  Donate to Nick Leibham.

3.  Visit Nick Leibham’s webpage to learn more.

4.  If you live in San Diego County, Volunteer for the Leibham campaign.

(Note: I am not affiliated with the Leibham campaign in any official way.)

[Updated with “Chicken Dinner” photos]

Dave noted today in the quick hits that Brian Bilbray‘s refusal to set foot in the district to debate Nick Leibham will be met with Bilbray chicken sandwiches and a campaign volunteer in a chicken suit. Now we have yet another example of Bilbray refusing to go anywhere near the people he’s supposed to represent.

The Men’s Club of Congregation Beth Israel in the 50th district had, until recently, been working on putting together a town hall for both camps. But via email comes the news that the event “had to be cancelled because of the lack of participation of the Bilbray campaign.”

Ouch. It’s one thing to be out of touch, it’s quite another to flat out refuse to acknowledge or engage your constituents. Bilbray is terrified of his record and knows full well that it’s dramatically outside the mainstream of the district and the country. So his strategy is simply to hide and hope nobody notices. Not only is he chicken, but he’s insulting the intelligence of every voter in the district by taking up this strategy. The “maybe nobody will notice I’m selling the country down the river” notion is flat out offensive and should be a devastating embarrassment.



If you’re too chicken to face the voters, it might be time to double check exactly what the heck you’re doing in Washington. [Update] I should also mention that the GOP “drill now, who cares if it’ll work” cabal who are holding sham sessions in the House aren’t doing so hot. One has already lost a primary because he was in the pocket of big oil and others can’t stay interested long enough to miss their golf outings.

(a few more pics on the flip)

It’s been more than 12 years since Brian Bilbray first took money from Big Oil to fund his political career. Back then, gas was $1.27/gallon in the 50th district, and after a dozen years of Bilbray and his Big Oil Republican buddies, gas is well over $4/gallon. Bilbray and his cronies think the solution is to give more tax dollars to oil companies, which makes sense since that money comes back as campaign contributions- a convenient way to launder taxes into re-election funds and not actually address gas prices in any way.

Nick Leibham just outraised Bilbray int he second quarter and is spreading a bit of that cash around as direct relief to drivers in the district. This Wednesday (July 30), Leibham will roll back gas prices at three gas stations in the 50th to $1.27, just like it was before Big Oil laid down the money to push Bilbray into office. This was a HUGE success in 2006 when Larry Kissell did it in North Carolina. More than 500 people showed up for the cheap gas, snarling traffic and bringing in police to wrangle the crowds. It’s a great time to be punching holes in Brian Bilbray’s absurd claim of being good on environmental and energy issues. Just a quick check of his recent voting record exposes how bad it is. Responsible Federal Oil and Gas Lease Act (Use It or Lose It): No. Drill Responsibly in Leased Lands Act: No. Renewable Energy and Job Creation Act: No. Energy Independence and Security Act: No.

Bad for the environment, bad for safe energy, bad for energy security, bad for creating new jobs in energy. And this guy’s supposed to be a friend of the environment and renewable energy? No.

[Update] Over at Politicker, Wally S. Edge wonders “isn’t it a little wrong to try to buy someone’s vote? Or is that just the American way?” Apparently there’s an electoral system in this country that I’m unaware of in which politicians do not spend money in the pursuit of receiving votes. Did we pass public election financing when I wasn’t looking?

Excerpted release on the flip:

Nick Leibham will temporarily roll back the price of gas during his “pain at the pump” tour on Wednesday, July 30th.  Leibham, the Democrat nominee for the 50th Congressional District, will have three different stops in North County throughout the day:

11 a.m: Encinitas, Shell Station, 1060 N. Camino Real

2 p.m: 4S Ranch, Chevron Station, 1629 Dove Canyon Road

5 p.m: Carmel Valley, Shell Station, 3861 Valley Center Drive

Leibham will offer 50 motorists at each location the opportunity to fill up at the price of $1.27 a gallon for up to 10 gallons of gas.  $1.27 was the average price of gas in San Diego in April, 1996 when Republican Brian Bilbray took his first campaign contribution from Big Oil.

Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup.  We’re just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus.  There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs.  One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now – it’ll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.

We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation.  So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing).  Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.

FEC disclosures (you can search by candidate name)

Voter registration by Congressional district.

Swing State Project fundraising roundup

On to the report…

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

1. CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney.  Challenger: Dean Andal.  Cook number: R+3.  % Dem turnout in the Presidential primary: 53.7%.  DCCC defended.  This remains the only opportunity for Republicans in the state, and it is starting to slip away.  Dean Andal is proving to be incredibly weak at fundraising, having raised under $200,000 for FOUR STRAIGHT QUARTERS.  He’s not going to be able to get up on TV, and his opponent has not only outraised him but will get about a million dollars in ad help from the DCCC.  Freedom’s Watch threw in a few anti-McNerney robocalls, but that’s really no match for the political muscle of the D-Trip.  Plus, there’s a brewing Andal scandal over his participation in passing privileged information and securing developer contracts for a San Joaquin Delta College contractor.  As for McNerney, his vote for the FISA bill has caused outcry in the district, and national groups like Blue America won’t be lending a hand.  He has changed his position on medical marijuana in response to constituents, a symbolic piece of support with activists.  But I think he’s largely on his own in this race.

McNerney: raised $416K in the second quarter, $1.37m cash on hand

Andal: raised $174K Q2, $663K CoH

REPUBLICAN SEATS

I’m going to do four tiers in setting apart the top seats where we have challenges to Republican incumbents.

First Tier

1. CA-04.  Last month: 1.  Open seat.  Dem. challenger: Charlie Brown.  Repub. challenger: Tom McClintock.  PVI #: R+11.  % Dem turnout in Feb. primary: 44.7.  DCCC targeted.  Tom McClintock actually raised quite a bit of money in the second quarter, but it all got plowed into the divisive primary with Doug Ose.  Plus, he was able to go above individual spending caps because of the “Millionaire’s Amendment,” which was recently ruled unconstitutional, putting constitutional literalist McClintock in a bind over what to do with that money.  We’ve seen real awkwardness from McClintock over how to handle disgraced incumbent John Doolittle, with shows of support and rejections happening on alternate days.  Meanwhile, Charlie Brown is humming along.  He has a 6-1 cash on hand advantage, and he’ll also be the recipient of some ad love from the DCCC.  His courageous stand against the FISA bill, outreach to parts of the district harmed by wildfires, and the release of a good energy plan which stresses tax credits for alternative energy and government fleets going renewable (and opposing opening up new lands for offshore drilling, in line with the “Use It Or Lose It” plan from Speaker Pelosi).  Brown was beloved at Netroots Nation and looks good in polling.  This is obviously our biggest-priority pickup.

Brown: raised $355K, $675K CoH

McClintock: raised $1.27m, $117 CoH

Second Tier

2. CA-46.  Last month: 4.  Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher.  Challenger: Debbie Cook (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6.  % Dem. turnout: 47.2.  I’m still concerned that the numbers aren’t quite there in the district, but I’m upping Cook this high because I have to acknowledge her achievements.  First, she’s outraised Rohrabacher two quarters in a row, and from what I’m being told, this has a lot to do with Dana and his wife (also his fundraiser) calling Republican backers and getting the phone slammed in their ears.  The Cook Political Report moved the race to Likely Republican, the only such move among competitive California races.  And there are indications that the D-Trip is at least taking a look at this race.  Most of this is happening because Cook is a compelling candidate.  Read her interview with Open Left or watch her interview with Talking Points Memo and you can see why.  Her environmental activism, competent fiscal management in Huntington Beach, and the fact that she’s not a ridiculously corrupt nutjob like Dana Rohrabacher makes for a fantastic profile.  This is probably too high, but there are some great signs here.

Cook: raised $110K, $97K CoH

Rohrabacher: raised $86K, $388 CoH

3. CA-50.  Last month: 5.  Incumbent: Brian Bilbray.  Challenger: Nick Leibham.  PVI #: R+5.  % Dem. turnout: 50.8.  DCCC targeted.  Nick Leibham outraised Brian Bilbray in the second quarter, and took in a nice haul of $245K in his own right.  He’s been gaining some attack points for criticizing Bilbray on wanting to debate on the radio and not in the district, and calling on other states to drill offshore but not California, an incoherent position.  The D-Trip put Leibham on their Red to Blue emerging races list, and dropped radio ads in the district tying him to Bush (MP3 here).  Leibham needs to articulate an agenda rather than just slam Bilbray forever, and that agenda needs to be a true contrast, but there is some movement here.

Leibham: raised $245K, $267K CoH

Bilbrary: raised $210K, $528K CoH

4. CA-26.  Last month: 2.  Incumbent: David Dreier.  Challenger: Russ Warner.  PVI #: R+4.  % Dem. turnout: 50.2.  DCCC targeted.  Warner was very focused on fundraising in June and yet came up short of beating David Dreier in the second quarter.  The problem is that Dreier has nearly two million dollars in the bank, so there’s a nearly 40-1 cash disadvantage, including campaign debts.  And despite the positive signs in the district, that’s tough to overcome.  Warner is going to need outside help, and the Bush Rubber Stamp project is a step in the right direction, but I don’t know if they’ll have the kind of money needed to meet the challenge.  There’s not much here to get me excited at this point.

Warner: raised $161K, $125K CoH

Dreier: raised $247K, $1.9m CoH

5. CA-45.  Last month: 3.  Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack.  Challenger: Julie Bornstein.  PVI #: R+3.  % Dem. turnout: 51.3.  The district is ready for a Democrat, and the symbiosis between Manuel Perez’ hotly contested Assembly campaign and Bornstein’s is going to help her in ways that aren’t being respected by the experts.  I still think this race is being undervalued.  However, Bornstein has been fairly invisible, from what I can tell, since the June primary.  And Bornstein got significantly outraised in Q2 as Mary Bono recognized the challenge she is facing can only be overcome with money.  In cash on hand she’s not far out of sight, however, and if Bornstein proves to be a solid and aggressive campaigner and benefits from increased Latino turnout in the Eastern Coachella Valley, there’s still a shot here.

Bornstein: raised $125K, $121K CoH

Bono: raised $336K, $421K CoH

Third Tier

6. CA-03.  Last month: 6.  Incumbent: Dan Lungren.  Challenger: Bill Durston. PVI #: R+7. % Dem turnout: 51.8.  This remains my sleeper pick in California.  The fundraising numbers were close, with Dan Lungren raising $173K to Durston’s $125K.  Lungren is trying to pivot to the center, coming out for nuclear warhead reduction with Russia, and the “X Prize” for battery technology promoted by John McCain.  But he’s firmly in the drill now, do nothing camp (despite voting against the “Use It Or Lose It” plan), and he’s lying about Democratic plans for tax increases.  Then there’s this bit of hilarity:

At a town hall meeting a few months ago Rep. Dan Lungren (R-Gold River) was adamant about denying citizenship to babies born in the United States to non-citizens. He lumped the infants into the same category as immigrants who cross the border illegally. He went so far as to sponsor a bill to deny citizenship to babies born to non-citizens.

In a classic flip-flop, Congo Dan “is backing the bill giving the Department of Homeland Security 30 days to process visas for entertainers,” says the Los Angeles Times.

Durston has publicly challenged Lungren to debates, and has a nifty comparison chart on his website that shows he’s truly running a campaign of contrast.  Keep an eye on this one.

Durston raised $125K, $189K CoH

Lungren raised $173K, $615K CoH

7. CA-52.  Last month: 7.  Open seat.  Dem. challenger: Mike Lumpkin.  Repub. challenger: Duncan D. Hunter.  PVI #: R+9.  % Dem. turnout: 47.2.  Calitics got to chat with Mike Lumpkin at Netroots Nation, and we were fairly impressed.  He talked up all the “Conservative Republicans for Lumpkin” signs he’s seeing in the district.  One thing he mentioned worried me, however: well over half of the voters in the primary thought they were voting for Duncan Hunter’s father, the incumbent.  That makes this almost not an open seat, and with Hunter’s fundraising advantage, it’s going to be an uphill battle.

Lumpkin raised $129K, $54K CoH

Hunter raised $338K, $198K CoH

Also Noted

8. CA-44.  Last month: 8.  Incumbent: Ken Calvert.  Challenger: Bill Hedrick (Responsible Plan endorser).  PVI #: R+6.  % Dem. turnout: 49.3.  Bill Hedrick tried to hit Ken Calvert over earmarks, and certainly there’s still a lot of smoke surrounding Calvert’s dirty dealings.  But in a low information district, Hedrick needs a lot of money for name ID, moeny he doesn’t have.

9. CA-42.  Last month: 11.  Incumbent: Gary Miller.  Challenger: Ed Chau.  PVI #: R+10.  % Dem. turnout: 44.0. Ed Chau has only $12,000 in the bank compared to Gary Miller’s $950,000.  That’s game, set and match, but questions have been raised once again about Miller’s potentially criminal actions (like his financial stake in getting an OC tollway built), so indictment is still on the fringes of possibility here.

10. CA-48.  Last month: 12.  Incumbent: John Campbell.  Challenger: Steve Young.  PVI #: R+8.  % Dem. turnout: 45.1.  Young is touting a poll (and I like that he’s touting it on ActBlue) showing that he’s up six points after biographical and issue information is distributed.  The problem is he has no money and lots of campaign debt, so how will that information get out there?  

11. CA-24.  Last month: 9.  Incumbent: Elton Gallegly.  Challenger: Marta Jorgensen.  PVI #: R+5.  % Dem. turnout: 50.6. Marta Jorgensen has a fairly nice website, but the money isn’t there to make this all that competitive, and she’ll need an Elton Gallegly slip-up. (Of course, she spent $1,375 on the primary and won, so ya never know…)

12. CA-41.  Last month: 10.  Incumbent: Jerry Lewis.  Challenger: Tim Prince.  PVI #: R+9.  % Dem. turnout: 46.3.  Tim Prince is also challenging Jerry Lewis on earmark requests, but Lewis has been pretty adept at escaping scrutiny in the district.