OK, this is hilarious.  With wrong-track numbers at over 80% and the current President near historic low approval ratings, you’d think this would be a time of soul-searching in the GOP.  Not so.  In fact, the Lincoln Club of Orange County, which is about as close as you can get to the eliminate-the-income-tax, stop-the-fluoridation-of-water far-right nutters in this entire country, is stamping its little feet over the fact that nobody likes their failed policies anymore.  They are calling for more completely unpopular ideas or they’ll withhold all their money.

(keep in mind when reading that this is Novakula, and as a GOP propagandist his view is skewed, but he has good sources inside the party.)

The Lincoln Club of Orange County is telling the GOP leaders of both the House and Senate that it is too late to repent. They must go — or else lose big money.

The message: “Come Nov. 5, should the current GOP leadership in either house survive to lead in a new Congress, the Lincoln Club of Orange County will review the financial backing of all congressional Republicans, and we urge others to do likewise. A GOP caucus that would re-elect such leaders is not one we would likely continue to support. Because, simply put, we refuse to support a permanent minority.”

The Lincoln Club estimates that its nearly 300 members will together contribute $1.5 million to federal causes and candidates in the 2008 election cycle. The club is spreading its message to angry Republicans throughout California and around the nation. The ultimatum finds responsive members of the House (if not the Senate), who even now are preparing a housecleaning after the additional loss of seats in this year’s election […]

That’s the view expressed in the Lincoln Club paper signed by Rich Wagner, the group’s president, and Chip Hanlon, a board member. It deplores the refusal by party leaders to support a one-year moratorium on earmarks, whose 285 percent growth when Congress was under Republican control is “the perfect symbol of the GOP-led profligacy that drives us crazy still.” Earmarks “epitomize the fiscal recklessness that led to Republicans becoming a minority in 2006. . . . It’s no wonder the Republican leadership continued to fail on . . . entitlement reform and a reduction in federal spending.”

They really do think, even at this late date, that their minority status is entirely attributable to federal earmarks which have almost no impact on the overall budget (try reducing military spending if you want to make a difference) and failing to eliminate Social Security or Medicare.  Nothing to do with a failed war in Iraq, skyrocketing costs for food, energy and health care, the crisis of climate change, our hated position in the world, growing inequality and the great risk shift onto the middle class, etc., etc., etc.

Here on Planet Earth, it’s amusing to see this crack-up between separate factions of the Birch Society crowd.  Some of the GOP establishment know that their policies are unpopular, and they hope to put some lipstick on them in presenting them to the public.  The rest, including the Lincoln Club, want their version of Gilded Age conservatism, disaster capitalism, denial of science and xenophobia to take center stage.

Conservative activists are preparing to do battle with allies of Sen. John McCain in advance of September’s Republican National Convention, hoping to prevent his views on global warming, immigration, stem cell research and campaign finance from becoming enshrined in the party’s official declaration of principles.

McCain has not yet signaled the changes he plans to make in the GOP platform, but many conservatives say they fear wholesale revisions could emerge as candidate McCain seeks to put his stamp on a document that currently reflects the policies and principles of President Bush.

In fact, Bush’s name is on 91 out of the 100 pages of the platform, which means the rewrite will be a knock-down drag-out fight between the really conservative and the really really conservative, with all the attendant ugliness on full display.  

It is to laugh.

Or something.

I’m still trying to make heads and tails of Bob Drogin’s narrative in Thursday’s L.A. Times regarding John McCain’s campaign strategy, which seems to be treating the entire country like one giant New Hampshire:

CINCINNATI — When John McCain campaigned here last week, he relied on his signature event, an unscripted town hall meeting, to sway undecided voters in this crucial swing state.

The presumed Republican presidential nominee paced with a microphone at Xavier University, taking questions about energy, the economy and other issues from about 150 people.

Problem is, it doesn’t work.

(see extended…)

First, let’s talk pure logistics.  Running a general election campaign where there is one nationwide election day to focus on is not the same as a primary campaign, where (at the beginning at least) you can do retail politics across states with low population.

McCain’s brand of retail politics may have been effective in Iowa (where, remember, he came in second) and New Hampshire (where he won in a state that has traditionally been sympathetic to him), at which point the Republican nomination had essentially come down to between him and Huckabee when it was shown that Romney was such a disaster that he couldn’t even win in his own backyard.

But in a general election where you have to appeal to hundreds of millions of voters and get them to enthusiastically volunteer for your campaign and turn out all their friends and neighbors to vote for you as well, talking to 150 people in Cincinnati a couple of times a week just won’t cut it.

And that’s even if you’re working on weekends, which McCain just won’t do.

Instead, after workweeks full of fundraisers, town hall meetings and interviews, McCain has been, in campaign parlance, “down” on nearly every Saturday or Sunday for 20 weeks, largely sequestered away from the news media.

He’s usually spending time with family, friends and campaign advisers at residences in Arlington, Va., and Phoenix or vacation homes near Sedona, Ariz., and San Diego.

The problem is, though, that as much as McCain may enjoy bantering back and forth with (and perhaps insulting) participants at town hall meetings, he still can’t do jack to convince voters that he knows what the hell he’s talking about:

But McCain’s hourlong pitch didn’t persuade Rosemary Meinders, a wavering Democrat. His answers were too general, she said. “Honestly, I don’t know what I’m going to do.”

The next day, Janine Koss, a lifelong Republican, also was unconvinced after McCain met about 80 autoworkers at the General Motors Lordstown plant outside Youngstown. “Now I don’t know,” the 31-year-old assembly line worker said. “I really don’t know.”

I’m not really surprised that someone even a Republican would be ambivalent after hearing McCain speak.  After all, he came to California recently and told us that we should open up our beautiful coastline to offshore drilling because it would make us feel good:

“I don’t see an immediate relief, but I do see that exploitation of existing reserves that may exist – and in view of many experts that do exist off our coasts – is also a way that we need to provide relief. Even though it may take some years, the fact that we are exploiting those reserves would have psychological impact that I think is beneficial.”

Bottom line: McCain has a campaign strategy of talking (poorly) to small handfuls of voters a few times a week.

It’s not exactly like he has a choice, though.  What else is he going to do?  Go head-to-head with Obama on the traditional campaign strategy of big rallies and inspiring speeches?  Not even McCain’s rosiest sympathizers believe that’s an option.  As Drogin writes:

Aides and supporters say the freewheeling sessions showcase the Arizona senator as a straight-talking candidate who is an expert on policy issues and ready to be president. It also lets him display a sense of humor that, they admit, is more appealing than his formal speeches, which can sound stilted. Even some GOP leaders have panned his delivery.

Cottage cheese in a lime jello salad, anyone?  You can read the reviews on how it would look if McCain tried to match Obama on speeches.

But the other significant problem with McCain’s fondness for town halls goes beyond the fact that he just can’t close the deal.  In fact, he risks losing the sale altogether.

“He’s very good for TV because there’s often a surprise,” she said. “You’re never sure what he’s going to say next. He moves into uncharted territory more readily than other politicians.”

That worries some supporters. They say McCain’s unstructured sessions often overshadow efforts to communicate a single, clear message each day. Worse, they fear, the routine events now only produce national news when he makes an error. Indeed, McCain has made his worst gaffes during town hall meetings.

As much as Republican strategists may wish to convince themselves that McCain’s “authenticity” (i.e., saying whatever seems convenient, no matter how tactless or insulting) can win him the day, the truth is that–unlike Obama’s rallies that are often the size of small cities–the only serious press that small town halls can generate is…negative press when you make a gaffe.

Before the digital age, this was not such a big deal.  But now that anyone can be a journalist and all it takes is a small handheld camcorder, everything is fair game.  And that’s bad news for John McCain, who likes to go off the cuff as a sign of “authenticity”.

So basically, the Republicans nominated a someone who can’t give a speech worth a damn who loves to do town halls (but can’t do too many and has to keep the schedule light owing to his age and stamina) and who gives inconsistent policy positions at the town halls that make message discipline impossible and who makes frequent gaffes during them.

And all that, simply because Republican primary voters couldn’t find anyone less unpalatable.  Well played, GOP.

McCain has essentially turned himself not into a candidate, but into a walking POW war hero narrative whose relevance for the qualifications of the Presidency is not allowed to be questioned, all for a lack of consistency on any other issue.

I, for one, am certainly not losing any sleep over seeing that inviolate automatic qualification brought into question.  If it’s all they have, why not try to take it away?

Just as presidential hopeful Barack Obama left California this past weekend, news is circulating about a new headline grabbing statement he made to a small group of people in San Francisco.  This time, conservatives are going mad because Obama told a Lesbian Gay Bisexual Transgender group that he opposes Prop. 8, a discriminatory ballot measure that would prohibit marriage equality via constitutional amendment.

Good for Obama, and good for California.  His opponent on the other hand, is playing so many sides of the fence, it’s hard to keep track.  Since when did it become so acceptable to flip flop your positions in the manner John McCain appears to do with so much comfort and ease.

McCain even goes so far as accusing Obama of flip-flopping in an effort to mask his own very real lack of integrity on the issue.

Follow this bias-filled Fox News article:

• “I am proud to join with and support the LGBT community in an effort to set our nation on a course that recognizes LGBT Americans with full equality under the law,” reads the Obama letter, available on the Alice B. Toklas LGBT Democratic Club Web site.

  Obama said he supports “extending fully equal rights and benefits to same sex couples under both state and federal law,” and called the measure a “divisive and discriminatory” effort to amend California’s constitution.

  In response, John McCain’s campaign told The Sacramento Bee that Obama is guilty of flip-flopping, saying his support for the measure contradicts an earlier statement in which the Democratic candidate said it should be left to the states to decide their marriage policies.

Let’s see, Obama is merely supporting the position of a soon-to-be-revealed majority of California voters at least, who support the constitution and equal rights to marry therein.  On November 4th, the state voters will decide.  Therefore, McCain is dead wrong about Obama on this point and further investigation reveals that McCain himself is guilty of this precise claim.

Case in point.  In 1996, McCain voted in favor of the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which declares that the federal government will not recognize same sex marriage and that states are not compelled to recognize such marriages that may be legal in other states.

That act federally undermines a legal marriage in California, wherein its state constitution, ratified and upheld by its people and sovereignty uphold the grant equal rights to marry.

Today, McCain prefers to allow each state to decide its own marriage laws, as California has done and will do on November 4th when Prop 8 is defeated.  Problem is, the McCain supported Defense of Marriage Act voids certain marriages at the federal level, abridging the right of a state to make its own decision.

On the issue of marriage equality, McCain goes from American hero to political hypocrite.  

From today’s Beyond Chron.

Yesterday’s Washington Post had a front-page piece on Findlay, Ohio – the “Flag City” – where small-town voters in the ultimate swing state still believe that Barack Obama is a Muslim.  What the Post didn’t report is that Findlay voted 2-1 for George Bush in 2004, and in 2006 rejected Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown (who won a landslide victory statewide.)  It’s just the latest example of the media projecting the myth that the Presidential race is somehow close, and grasping for non-existent trends to keep it alive.

But reality says otherwise.  Women and Latinos who supported Hillary Clinton are flocking to Obama, despite the narrative that Democrats are “divided.”  State-by-state polls consistently show Obama on his way to surpassing 270 electoral votes – with hints that November could become a rout.  Even national polls with Obama ahead by double digits are dismissed as “outliers,” along with the constant reminder that Michael Dukakis blew a 17-point lead (without any context of two very different candidates).  The media won’t admit that the Presidential race is over, and Obama is going to win.

Eli Saslow’s Washington Post article was the worst example of “journalism by anecdote” – where a handful of interviews in a town most readers have never heard of is supposed to suggest a national electoral trend.  Apparently, some Findlay residents believe that Barack Obama is “a gay Muslim racist born in Africa who won’t recite the Pledge of Allegiance.”  That Findlay’s official nickname is “Flag City, USA” only feeds the perception that it’s Middle America – and the fact that it’s in Ohio (whose electoral votes swung the last election) suggests that where goes Findlay, so goes the nation.

But the Post failed to do what took me about five minutes to look up online.  According to past election results, Findlay doesn’t represent Ohio – much less the nation.  In 2004, George W. Bush got 11,866 votes there compared with 5,724 for John Kerry – a two-to-one margin that far outpaced Bush’s statewide victory.  Even in 2006, when Ohio swung Democratic and booted out a longtime Republican Senator, Findlay stuck with the G.O.P. incumbent by a twelve point margin.

If the Post interviewed voters in Harlem to gauge what’s going on with the Obama-McCain race, they would be ridiculed for asking a sample of voters who don’t “represent” America.  But here they get away with painting a picture of this election based on a small Republican town.

Saslow’s piece did indicate one statistic that’s supposed to alarm pundits about Obama’s chances in November – one in 10 Americans falsely believe that the Illinois Senator is a Muslim.  But more Americans than that believe Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, or that Iraq was linked to the 9/11 terrorist attacks.  When we hear malicious rumors meant to undermine Obama’s candidacy, journalists fail to ask if those who believe them would ever support him in the first place.  As Randy Shaw wrote, Barack Obama is perceived as a weak candidate because he’s failing to get the racist vote.

But anyone who closely follows the election online knows that Obama has solidified the Democratic Party base – and is on a clear path to winning the presidency in November.  After Hillary Clinton suspended her primary campaign and endorsed Obama, pundits wrote (and still write) stories about disgruntled Hillary supporters who will vote for John McCain in the November election.  Women are not supposed to vote for Obama because, according to Geraldine Ferraro, he’s run a “terribly sexist campaign.”  Latinos are supposedly too racist to vote for a black candidate – and pundits say a sizable number will vote Republican (ignoring the party’s xenophobic jihad on immigration policy.)

But the facts are getting into the way of that theory.  A recent poll shows Latinos breaking 62-28 for Obama over McCain, with other polls showing similar results.  When you consider that Bush got 40% of the Latino vote in 2004, it’s obvious that Latinos are deserting the G.O.P. in droves.  Along with labor’s unprecedented get-out-the-vote effort to target that community in November, Obama is likely to pick up either Colorado, New Mexico or Nevada – and possibly all three states.

And McCain has more to worry about Republican women deserting him than vice versa.  Not only have Democratic women united behind Obama, but polling shows McCain’s anti-choice record (once women hear about it) is going to be a huge liability.  “I’m sure there are female Hillary Clinton voters who will go for John McCain in the general election,” said Katha Pollitt in The Nation, “but I don’t think too many of them will be feminists. Because to vote for McCain, a feminist would have to be insane.”

Obama will win the general because he has a solidified lead in all the states John Kerry won in 2004 – even swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  While the blue states won’t be enough to win the Presidency, it prevents Obama from having to play defense – giving him 252 electoral votes in the bag and shifting the battle into traditionally Republican states.

To surpass the magic number of 270, Obama just needs to win all the Kerry states, Colorado (where he’s been consistently ahead in the polls) and Virginia (whose demographic shift favors Democrats.)  But Obama is likely to also win Iowa and New Mexico (Gore won both), and he’s ahead in Ohio – regardless of what people in “Flag City” believe.  Florida will be tough but winnable, while Nevada, Montana, Missouri and North Carolina are all still in play.  Even Georgia – where Obama is firing up the state’s many black voters and young voters, coupled with former Congressman Bob Barr playing spoiler for McCain – could generate an upset and help Obama win that state.

But what’s even more encouraging is how Obama’s strategy differs from John Kerry.  In 2004, Kerry’s chances dwindled as the campaign zeroed in on fewer swing states – precluding the odds of winning and not leaving much room for error.  When he stopped advertising in Arkansas and Missouri to focus on Ohio, he reduced his supporters in those states to mere bystanders.  But that won’t happen this time – with superior resources and more grassroots supporters, Obama is running a “50 state strategy” that will give all his supporters something to do.  The campaign is even putting money in states like Texas where they have virtually no chance of winning – but a little help could put Democrats running in targeted races over the finish line.

Nevertheless, the mainstream media still acts like this is a horse race – even when their own national polls show Obama winning by double digits.  Newsweek recently had Obama up by 15 points, while the Los Angeles Times had him up by 12 points – but the press dismissed these polls as mere outliers.  Of course, polls are just a sample of the electorate — and you can never be sure if a single poll is a fluke or an accurate trendsetter.  But when a series of polls start showing the same pattern, it becomes impossible to ignore.

Naturally, nervous Democrats refuse to believe that these latest polls show Obama is going to win – because they’re still haunted by the ghost of Michael Dukakis (who famously blew a 17-point lead in 1988.)  But Obama is not like Dukakis, Kerry or Gore – who failed to excite their base and resisted fighting back at the right-wing noise machine.  Not only has Obama proven a willingness to be a “street-fighter” in this campaign when he faces attacks, but the Democratic base is likely to turn out in droves for him – regardless of what they think his chances are at prevailing.

Because the media is fixated on the narrative that Democrats are divided and Obama is a “weak” candidate, they focus on any sign of his vulnerabilities without an overall context of what it means for the presidential race.  The fact that some voters in “Flag City” think that Obama is a Muslim doesn’t mean he will lose Ohio – and it certainly doesn’t belong on the front page of the Washington Post.  Democrats should work hard for Obama in the general election regardless of what the odds are – but they shouldn’t let the media’s myth cow them into believing John McCain has a shot.

EDITOR’S NOTE: In his spare time and outside of regular work hours, Paul Hogarth volunteered on Obama’s field operation in San Francisco. He also ran to be an Obama delegate to the Democratic National Convention.