Tag Archives: Field Poll

California

Inflated Clinton Poll Theory in California

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Why is there a big gap in 2008 California Presidential Democratic Primary in the two most recent poll results?

Hillary Rodham Clinton leads the Democratic presidential candidates in California, with four in 10 likely primary voters saying they will support her, according to a Field Poll released Tuesday.

That is a higher level of support than she has registered in national polling or in a recent statewide poll by the Public Policy Institute of California, which found her leading with 35 percent.

Chris Bowers has started a new page on MyDD dedicated to the Inflated Clinton Poll Theory and his recent calculations of national polls are in line with what we are seeing in California.

Bowers examines whether Clinton performs worse as poll samples are tightened. Since Field Poll only interviewed Registered Voters, here is the situation at that level.

POLL (PDF) Likely Dems Reg Voters Perc. Clinton
PPIC 498 1,542 32.3% 35%
Field 417 1,093 38.2% 41%


Bowers summarizes why this debate is important:

Right now, this is still just a theory. However, it is an important theory to test, because accurate reports on who is currently ahead in the race for the Democratic nomination, and how much that person is ahead by, are crucial to developing an informed Democratic primary and caucus electorate. Whether or not we like it, and whether or not we think it should, information of this sort has an impact on the nomination campaign. As such, it would be a disservice to the Democratic primary and caucus electorate if we did not work to make certain they had accurate information on who is winning, and by how much that person is winning. I imagine there are quite a few Republicans out there who feel the same way about their party.

One professional pollster (read through to his comment) suggests that California may be particularity prone to this which could mean Hillary may not even have a lead:

Among the general election voters who claimed they would vote in the Dem primary, Clinton scored eight points higher than among the past primary voters.

UPDATE: Could there be a reason for this?

California

Field Poll: Legalize the Undocumented and Stop the Fence, Say Californians

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Today brings us a new Field Poll on California’s attitudes toward immigration. It makes sobering reading for the bigoted Minuteman types and should remind us who support human rights for ALL Californians that we are in the majority. From the SF Chronicle article on the poll results:

Support among California voters for legalizing undocumented immigrants rose to 83 percent from 75 percent last April…California voters increasingly oppose a federal plan for 700 more miles of border fence — with just 37 percent favoring it this year, down from 47 percent last April, the Field Poll found.

What I really liked was this quote from Angela Kelley of the National Immigration Forum:

“You guys are the most informed because you live and breathe this,” she said of California, a state with an estimated 2.5 million illegal immigrants, where more than one in four residents is foreign-born.

As we all know, “most informed” is an unfortunately relative term, with way too many state residents holding bigoted views on the subject not supported by any evidence. Still, these numbers are not just strong, but overwhelming evidence that supporting a path to legalization is shared across the political spectrum. One might even call it “post-partisan” were folks inclined (and I am not).

I hope that a good immigration plan can be passed in Congress this year. If we have to wait until 2008 then there will be more temptation for politicians to be persuaded by the bigots and haters – even though their numbers are vastly overstated, as this Field Poll proves.

Arnold Schwarzenegger

Field Poll Finds Massive Support For Healthcare Reform

(Cross-posted from The Courage Campaign)

It's rare but, in politics, sometimes doing the right thing and doing the easy thing are the same. And for California politicians, tackling healthcare may have just gotten a whole lot easier…politically anyway.

According to the new Field Poll, eight in ten (81%) Californians believe

“it should be public policy that government guarantee that all Californians have access to affordable health care insurance or other health care coverage.”

That is the actual wording from the question asked to respondents. Remarkable.

In addition, 78% agree (44% strongly) that government has a responsibility for providing health care coverage for people who can’t afford to pay for it.

More…

These findings would seem to signal that one of the the greatest hurdles to expanding healthcare coverage through government policy, distrust in government to efficiently implement a healthcare system better than the current one, is no hurdle at all.

Another question that loomed over whether people would support an overhaul of the healthcare system was whether the majority with adequate health insurance would get behind reforms that benefitted the minority who are un- or under-insured. The poll answers that question resoundingly. From The Chron:

The survey also found that while a majority of voters are satisfied with the current system of coverage, there is much anxiety about losing coverage in the future and not being able to pay the costs of a major illness or injury. Indeed, 77 percent said they worry that they might not be able to pay for a major injury or illness.

With rising healthcare costs, which employers are increasingly passing onto employees if not lowering coverage altogether, there is a significant amount of insecurity about health coverage out there, even among the middle class. Which means for the pleaser in chief, our governor, passing healthcare reform is a no-brainer.

Adam Mendelsohn, Schwarzenegger's communications director, said the poll results are "another clear indication" that the governor's emphasis on health care this year is welcomed by the voters.

"The system is broken, costs are going up and people are concerned about the future of their health care, which is exactly why the governor is taking this on," he said.

The LA Times is reporting that Schwarzenegger will lay out his plan to fix California’s healthcare system in a speech he’ll deliver on Monday. Let's hope the results of this poll embolden the governor to go further than he might ordinarily go. He likes to say his first priority is to do the people's business. Well, governor, the people have spoken.

The Courage Campaign will be holding a conference call next Thursday to discuss the governor’s plans for 2007 with an eye on healthcare in particular. We’ll have details for everyone soon, I hope you will join us.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, Blog Roundup

Odds and Ends 11/4

This will be a short one. I know it’s a busy weekend. Go out and rustle up some votes!
Teasers: Field Poll on the infratstructure bonds, Arnold using another corporate slush fund, Prop 90 divisiveness, and more!

  • The Field Poll(PDF) on the Infrastructure Bonds was released.  It seems the media blitz in support, without a corresponding blitz in opposition, is having an effect.  All 5 bonds are favored now. However, while I still stick to my statement that the Field Poll is the best in the state, I’m still not convinced that all of these are going to pass.
    • 1B (Transportation): 56 Yes, 28 No, 16 Undecided
    • 1C (Housing): 51 Yes, 30 No, 19 Undecided
    • 1D (Schools): 56 Yes, 29 No, 15 Undecided
    • 1E (Disaster Preparedness): 53 Yes, 27 No, 20 Undecided
    • 84 (Water/Parks):  51 Yes, 31 No, 18 Undecided
  • Tony Strickland doesn’t pay his taxes on time.  It seems that the GOP candidate for Controller, you know the guy responsible for auditing state government and cutting checks for the state, can’t seem to manage his own bills. Whoops!
  • Schwarzenegger wants an Iraq withdrawal deadline.  Why you wanna cut and run Arnold?
  • Beyond Chron notes that The Bayview Redevelopment Plan is causing some typically progressive votes to shift in favor of Prop 90 and is dividing San Francisco Progressives.  That is a shame, because that is exactly what Howie Rich wants.  The New York libretarian seeks to divide the vote by sneaking in dangerous restrictions on land-use regulation with a prop that is ostensibly about eminent domain.
  • Arnold is planning a trade mission to Mexico.  It’s Paid for by a corporate slush fund.  Great, not only is he assuming his victory, he’s also assuming nobody will care that he’s whoring out for special interests.  $113million says we are right Governator.
  • CalSTRS will stop making investments in companies that give big bucks to statewide candidates.  Seems like a good idea to me.
  • Justice O’Connor says that our Judiciary is under attack.  She’s right, it’s from the Right.  It’s why we need to push from the Left.  No on William McGuiness.
    • Blog Roundup, Prisons

    Odds and Ends 11/3

    2 Comments

    It’s Friday, the election is Tuesday.  Jerry and Charlie need lots of volunteers, see Ethics in Congress’s diary.  If you are in SoCal, I’m sure Francine Busby could use some volunteers.  Also, Democratic Victory HQ’s will be needing volunteers. You can find locations near you here. You can sign up here.

    Ok, teasers: Field Poll, McClintock is crazy, Laura Bush needs to communicate more with her husband, there aren’t enough absentee ballots in SD, and more!

  • The Field Poll on the Down Ballot Race came out today. Todd has the full scoop.  Short summary: Brown and Lockyer up by a lot,  Bowen and Chiang up slightly outside the margin of error, Garamendi is up within the MoE, and Cruz is down slightly out of the margin of error.

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  • McClintock and Garamendi are pretty much dead even . Part of that is McClintock’s residual name ID, name ID that doesn’t connect to his positions on the issues. Part of it is McClintock’s pinning blame on Garamendi for the Executive Life collapse.  Trouble is: Garamendi helped 90% of policyholders.  Garamendi couldn’t make money appear where there was none. Folks, there is no there there.  McClintock is trying to distract voters from his beliefs because he knows that they are too extreme for California. Arnold and Tom are a team made in heaven, they are both trying to play moderates on TV.  I guess Arnold is just a better actor.

  • The California Majority Report notes an ad that will be put out in the Bay area just in time for Laura Bush’s visit. (She’s campaigning for Pombo now! I guess she’s against endangered species too.) The ad questions whether Shrub will be able to address energy independence, but makes clear that California can address it on Nov. 7.

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  • Speaking of the First Lady, it seems she wants a more civil debate over Iraq.  Interesting…perhaps she should talk to her husband, and husband’s BFF, Dick Cheney.  You know the ones that said that the “Democrat Party” wants the terrorists to win.  That’s civil debate? Saying that your political opponents want fellow citizens to be murdered.  Of course she says this while campaigning for Doolittle, the man who wouldn’t know civil if it hit him over the head with a frying pan.  And, hey jackasses, it’s the Democratic Party. Democrat is a noun, it can’t describe a party. Democratic is an adjective. But, hey, what does the GOP know of the root word, democracy. They were for it before they were against it before they were for it in Iraq.

  • Also at the Majority Report, Assemblyman Frommer discusses Arnold’s hypocritical stand on campaign fund raising.  He was against special interests before he was for them.

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  • Incompetence in our elections. Well surprise, surprise, another problem with our elections.  It seems San Diego didn’t print enough absentee ballots, so they are sending out photocopies of the real ballots.  I’m serious.  C’mon, we need a “pushy” SoS, like Debra Bowen, who will make sure that our elections are run cleanly.

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  • Yet another reason why Prop 83, Jessica’s Law, is a road to hell paved with good intentions.  Quite simply, Prop 83 will not make us safer. A study by the parole board was released today saying that the ambiguites of the Law will cause the board to scramble to find what to do with offenders, may cause some offenders to stop registering, and in an earlier draft, said that “restricting where a parolee lives does little to actually protect the community and sends a false sense of security.”

  • Oh look, we are officially the boogeyman now. “San Francisco values” is officially the right-wing spin of choice. Apparently the GOP media machine believes that our values of tolerance and respect offend people in the Central Valley, Nebraska, and Georgia.  As Chris Lehane said in the article it’s not going to work: “like they’re talking about the Haight-Ashbury in 1969. It’s not going to move anybody. It’s basically just going to excite the base who are already on board.” Oh, and Mark Morford says that Dick Cheney hates you. It’s probably true.

  • Francine Busby is still fighting in CA-50.  The polls show a fairly tight race.  The recent revelations about a grand jury investigation certainly won’t help Brian Bilbray at all.

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  • OOps, maybe the prison transfer won’t happen yet after all.  Another court hearing is being held today, don’t expect this to cruise through smoothly, ever.  There is too much money tied up in this.  Kinda sick, huh? The prison-industrial complex has grown too big for its britches.

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  • The case against Raymond Lee Oyler is pretty strong, so say the prosecution in the Esperanza fire murder case.
    • Uncategorized

    Field Poll Has Bowen Up By 6

    (Cross-posted from The California Courage Campaign)

    Debra Bowen enjoys a 6 point lead over appointed secretary of state Bruce McPherson in the latest Field Poll, which was taken from 10/23-10/30.

    Debra Bowen (D) 40%

    Bruce McPherson (R) 34%

    Undecided 26%

    She's expanded her support from 38% back in July, a trend that may be slight but it's there and it's in her favor.

    "It's not moving against her. The trend is more important than the number," DiCamillo said. "To me, that is significant."

    Another good sign for Bowen can be found in the internals of the poll.

    The support of the two candidates is sharply divided along party lines. More than two-thirds of Democrats and Republicans support their parties' candidate, with 67 percent of Democrats for Bowen and 69 percent of Republicans for McPherson. Thirty-seven percent of nonpartisan voters support Bowen, while 20 percent favor McPherson. "The nonpartisans are breaking for Bowen, and that's what is giving her the lead," DiCamillo said.

    With such a huge number of undecideds, just as in the initiative races, the result of this race will largely depend on which way undecideds swing. So the fact that the nonpartisans are supporting Bowen is huge.

    More of the poll over the flip. 

    The tightest race of the year is turning out to be for Lieutenant Governor.

    John Garamendi (D) 44%

    Tom McClintock (R) 43%

    Undecided 13%

    John Garamendi now holds a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over conservative Tom McClintock. McClintock's strength should come as no surprise to anyone who remembers him from the recall election. He has strong support within the party, which is reflected in the internals:

    Garamendi is drawing support from 73 percent of Democrats, while McClintock has 81 percent of Republicans voting for him. Among nonpartisans, 47 percent favor Garamendi and 32 percent support McClintock.

    Again, nonpartisans are breaking in the Democrat's direction, which should put Garamendi over the top in the end. The fact is he is well to the right of California.

    Other races:

    Attorney General

    Jerry Brown (D) 56%

    Chuck Poochigian (R) 31%

    Undecided 13%

    Brown's support is up 11 points from July.

    Treasurer

    Bill Lockyer (D) 45%

    Claude Parrish (R) 26%

    Undecided 29%

    Controller

    John Chiang (D) 38%

    Tony Strickland (R) 31%

    Undecided 31%

    Insurance Commissioner

    Cruz Bustamante (D) 37%

    Steve Poizner (R) 46%

    Undecided 17%

    Cruz is supported by only 59% of Democrats.

     

     

     

     

     

    Arnold Schwarzenegger

    CA-Gov Field: Whoa there, don’t go calling this one yet.

    1 Comment

    The new Field Poll(PDF) has been released, and it shows a much more reasonable lead for Arnold: 10 points. As I have frequently said, the Field Poll is the best poll on California elections. Another interesting number also comes from this poll: 67% of voters think that Arnold will win the election.  It looks like the media has done their job on this one convincing the world that it’s over before it ever started.  Well folks, it ain’t over.

    A few encouraging points:

    • Arnold is still languishing well below fifty percent, currently at 44 percent, while Angelides has 34%.  Arnold has all the media coverage he could ever want, and he still can’t get fifty percent.  That’s not a good sign for the “greatest superstar governor EVER!”

    • This poll was done BEFORE the unions upped their antes against Arnold.  I think the nurses “hounding Arnold” project and the new ABC ads will have a real impact on the race as people begin to remember the special election.  If more people go to the voting booth thinking about November 2005, Phil has a shot.

    • Arnold’s lead has been pretty much stagnant since Arnold originally grabbed his seven point lead in the spring.  While everybody has been burying Phil, Arnold has made little actual headway.

    I’ll get some more interesting numbers over the flip.

    Jerry Brown

    Field Poll: 82 Shifting down, Speier Up

    1 Comment

    The down-ballot Field poll was released this morning. So, I’ll run down the numbers, starting with the Constitutional offices.

    Lt.Gov

    Jackie Speier has moved into a small lead over John Garamendi, apparently all those billboards aren’t paying off for him like he would have hoped.  Liz Figueroa has continued to slide into oblivion.  Currently, Speier has 30%, Garamendi 25%, and Figueroa 8% with 37% undecided. It was thought by some that Figueroa would act as a spoiler for Speier, but that doesn’t seem to be playing out.  Figueroa has only 7% of women and only 5% in Speier’s and Figueroa’s home region of Northern California.  She is a bit stronger in Southern California at 10%, but this is probably just due to Latino identity politics.  Speier’s large lead amongst women might push her over the top in a primary that is dominated by women.  She currently leads 33-21-7 on that figure.  On the GOP Side, Tom McClintock is running unopposed.

    Attorney General

    Jerry Brown‘s name recognition, (and a Time Magazine feature story didn’t hurt on that account), without much in the way of campaign spending, has allowed him to retain his large lead over Rocky Delgadillo.  Currently Brown has 51%, Delgadillo 24%, and 25% are undecided.  I would go deeper into the numbers, but Brown seems to be dominant in all the crosstabs.  On the GOP side, Poochigian is running without siginificant opposition.

    Controller

    This race has flown under the radar, with a huge 63% undecided.  Joe Dunn is clinging to the slimmest of leads with 19 points, while John Chiang has 18.  Unsuprisingly, Dunn is doing better in Southern California (21-14) and Chiang better in Northern California (25-15).  This one will probably get a lot fewer people voting on it that the gov race, and name recognition just might push a state senator over a BOE member.  But, at this point, it’s too close to call.  And on the plus side, both campaigns in this race have run great campaigns.  I’m excited to see either man win.  On the GOP side, Strickland has a 43-32 lead over Maldanado.

    Treasurer

    Bill Lockyer is running unopposed.  On the GOP side, Keith Richman is leading small government loon and current BOE member Claude Parrish at 18-17 with 65 undecided.

    Secretary Of State

    Deborah Ortiz narrowly leads Debra Bowen at 25-19.  However, this might be merely identity politics as 65% is undecidided.  Ortiz seems to be holding her home region of Sacramento and NorCal (28-15), but with undecideds so high, it’s hard to glean much from the poll.  And another thing, am I totally missing something, or does Ortiz not have a campaign website?  That would be pretty crazy, and if so I would definitely have to publicly give my support to Bowen.  C’mon folks, technology is a big part of that job, get with the 21st century.  McPherson is running unopposed for the GOP nomination.

    Prop 82

    Prop 82 has been crashing in support recently.  And the news today is not good either.  Currently it’s losing by a margin of 41 Yes to 46 No.  The scare tactics used by the No on 82 folks seem to be working.  And I must admit, I’ve heard several very progressive people admit that they are a bit nervous about voting for the program.  I think at some level people just don’t like instituting such a large program via direct democracy.  Also, part of this is the additional taxes.  Those on the right jsut hate government, those on the left seem to want to use those taxes for other purposes.  However, I think it’s going to be a close race for 82.  The SacBee notes that:

    Despite the new poll numbers, supporters say they believe they will win. They expect to do well among Democrats, who will be more likely to go to the polls to vote in the gubernatorial primary and other hotly contested Democratic races, said Nathan James, a spokesman for the Yes on 82 campaign.

    “We always knew this election was going to come down to the wire,” James said. “We have a number of advantages going into this election.”

    But opponents of Proposition 82, including the California Chamber of Commerce, have been pushing the arguments that the program would be too costly and would potentially drive private preschools out of business.

    Pamela Zell Rigg, president of the California Montessori Council, said opponents were hoping voters would turn against the measure as they learned more about it. (SacBee 6/3/06)

    So, obviously turnout will be key in all these races. But for Prop 82, where both parties get to vote and Ds are skewed in favor of 82(53-33) and Rs are skewed against 82 (25-65), the “who” of turnout will be key.  If many Republicans stay away from what is an otherwise uninteresting primary election for them, it might allow 82 to pass.