Based on a Post 4/11/2008 6:02 PM PDT on MyDesert.com in BluePalmSpringsBoyz blog
My first exposure to Statistics was in undergraduate school. One of our textbooks was Huff’s “How to Lie With Statistics.” (Before you question my Statistical knowledge, I also had two semesters, six credits, of Statistics in my Master’s program, and another two semesters, six credits, of same in my doctoral program.) Oh, the perils of using statistics in either a naive manner or purposefully misrepresenting these little guys. Seems that bethcaskie, aka soyinkafan, the former a new blogger to mydesert.com has intimate knowledge of this text and put it to good use in her first posting re the Binder Poll recently released. Shame on bethcaskie for her misleading blog title and for the loose interpretation of the Binder Poll.
Bethcaskie entitled her piece, dramatically claiming that Manuel Perez, Vice-President of the failed Coachella Valley Unified School District board and Democratic candidate for the CA 80th Assembly District, leads in the Binder polling. Then she articulated that Perez and Greg Pettis, Cathedral City Councilman, were actually tied in the poll! How then is Perez ahead? This is a shameful misrepresentation of the facts.
More below the flip…
According to Pettis campaign officials, the actual Binder Poll shows Pettis ahead of his nearest Democratic challenger by 7 percentage points amongst likely primary and general election voters. Is this the same poll that bethcaskie referenced? Seems a little askew. In the Pettis campaign press release, Petts has 22 percent of the total vote and his nearest Democratic challenger has only 15 percent. Supposing that it is Perez with the 15 percent, and this is a hasty assumption since I do not have access to the polling date, this is hardly either a statistical tie or a manifestation of Perez leading in the poll, even should he be the second-place finisher.
Then, bethcaskie claimed that with ‘education’ the voters dutifully voted for Perez’ candidacy to the detriment of Pettis’. Just what ‘education’ meant, bethcaskie failed to enunciate. Given the failures of Perez as Vice-President of the Coachella Valley Unified School District as board Vice-President, the threatened State sanctions due to CVUSD’s failure to meet the requirements of ‘No Child Left Behind,’ and the State placing CVUSD under trusteeship under Perez’ leadership, the Perez campaign is hardly the Great Decider in determining what ‘education’ might be.
Not a very clear argument for Perez being ahead in the polls since Pettis is clearly ahead in the poll amongst likely primary and general election voters, ahead of each of his Democratic rivals, and ahead of the presumptive Republican nominee, Gary Jeandron, another failed leader of another school district threatened with sanctions. (Pettis leads Jeandron 41% – 39% amongst these likely voters in the Binder poll, according to the Pettis campaign staffer.)
How to Lie with Statistics? Ask the Perez campaign.