GOP is in danger of falling below 30%

by Brian Leubitz

Party	Feb 1999	January 2008	January 2012
Democratic	46.72%	42.71%	43.63%
Republican	35.27%	33.45%	30.36%
NPP	12.89%	19.38%	21.24%

For the last decade, the big winner in party registration has been no party at all. Decline to state, now known as no party preference, has boomed from just under 13% in 1999 to 21.24% in the latest numbers released by the Sec. of State’s office today.  While Democratic numbers have fluctuated in the lower 40s, Republican numbers continue to creep downwards.  If the trend continues, the GOP may fall below 30% in the very near future.

It is no surprise that the GOP is rapidly losing adherents, what with the far right extreme becoming dominant within the Party of Reagan (née Lincoln). But with district maps that require Republicans to compete for the middle, the question is whether they really can do that.  These numbers certainly don’t bode well for that.

In the state that puts most propositions before voters, in the country that puts most questions before the electorate, Liberty Hill asked: How do you decide how to vote? True confessions with cameo appearances by Assemblyman Bob Blumenfield and California Common Cause director Kathay Feng.

 

 

The good folks at the Field Poll have been quiet recently. Other than a poll about the national health care debate, they hadn’t released much since back before the May 19 debacle at the end of April.  

However, today, they’ve decided to present the Republicans with some solid evidence of their worst nightmare: an electorate controlled by minorities (PDF). Using some data from various sources the numbers are pretty much as you would expect, the numbers of Latinos and Asians in both the general populace and the voting booths are up, while the numbers of African-Americans and whites are down. Given the lengths that the Republicans have gone to alienate immigrants, these numbers cannot be good for them.

Of course, whites are still very over represented in the voting booths, but much of that is from one very discouraging fact.  Despite all the hubub about Barack Obama activating the youth to engage, and get involved, the California electorate is now older than it was in 1978. Of course, much of this has to do with the fact that people live longer than they did in 1978.  Medical technology and understanding of health has increased substantially. But while we have come a long way in activating young voters, there is always a lot of work yet to be done.

All news is not rosy when looking back over the last 30 years for the Democratic Party.  For example, when loo9king at registration, the rapid increase of Decline to State Voters has come almost exclusively from the Democratic column.  In 1978, Dem registration was at 56.6%, whereas it is now at 44.6%. DTS registration is up 12 points to 20, Republican registration is down 3.2 points to 31, and “Other” is up 3 points to 4.4.

Many voters simply don’t take party affiliation as seriously as they used did back in 1978, and the Dems were always more of a big tent than the ideologically rigid GOP. And the DTS generally break towards the Dem candidate and/or position. So, perhaps this isn’t that serious, but it certainly is stark.

But, in the main, let’s see the GOP keep up this anti-immigrant thing, and see how it works for you as these patterns continue.

While I imagine that most readers of Calitics are already registered, a reminder’s always helpful.  So, make sure your friends, family, and even just the random guy who sits three cubes away from you is registered to vote. You must get the registration form into your county today, so your best bet is to go directly to a county office and fill one out.

You’ll also see people registering voters at various locations, such as grocery stores, transit spots, etc. I know the League of Women Voters usually does last-day drives, as well as some other very good orgs. Just make sure you stay away from these guys. The “good government” folks are usually pretty good about getting the forms in on time.

Here in the Bay Area, and I imagine throughout the state, elections offices will be staying open late to accommodate late-comers:

San Francisco and Alameda County offices will be open until midnight. San Mateo County and Marin County offices will be open until 8 p.m. Santa Clara County and Contra Costa County offices will be open until 7 p.m. Solano County, Napa County and Sonoma County offices will be open until 5 p.m. (SJ Merc 10/20/08)

By Randy Bayne

Bayne of Blog

Recordnet.com is reporting:

Swing State Project, a Democratic-leaning online blog covering election races nationwide, recently identified three California Assembly races to watch – all involving portions of San Joaquin County – and calling them all toss-ups at this point.

In AD-10 they site the near equal registration numbers – a 2.04% difference, advantage Republicans – that have close from 6% since the 2006 primary election. The difference was only 1.97% in May but odd numbers from San Joaquin County skewed the 60-day report.

In AD-15 nothing is certain, but it looks like Joan Buchanan should come out on top. Still, this is one to watch and could be close.

In AD-26 there is a 1% Democratic advantage and the election should be a close one for John Eisenhut. The Republicans have a strong candidate with a known family name — Berryhill.

Each of these districts share something in common. All three include a portion of San Joaquin County. Why is this important? In spite of the rapid rise in Democratic registration throughout California, San Joaquin is the only county in any of these districts to experienced a drop in registration. As a matter of fact, about 4,000 voters, 3,700 of them Democratic, have dropped off the San Joaquin rolls since May, 2008.

Comparing reports on the Secretary of State’s Website, it was found that Republicans managed to increase registrations in San Joaquin County between May and September adding about 1,800 new voters. Over the same period, Democrats lost nearly 3,700, very close to the 4,000 total decrease county wide. Something doesn’t smell right, and it isn’t rotting fish in a drying delta.

With reports of “slamming” coming out of San Bernardino County, the CDP needs to get on this quickly. CA Democratic Party Region 7 Directory Gary Robbins and San Joaquin Co. Central Committee Chair Richard Blackston have already been informed, and San Joaquin should be added to the already started investigation.

Note: Title edited as per a suggestion in the comments

To expand on the voter fraud in San Bernardino County that the CDP alerted us to yesterday, funded by would-be governor Steve Poizner, Carol Robb of the San Bernardino County Democratic Central Committee has provided more details, including Republican DA Mike Ramos’ unwillingness to even return Democrats’ calls:

Here’s what has happened:

·Immediately after the Labor Day weekend, we saw a large increase in San Bernardino County in Republican Registration, as compared to Democratic, for the first time in 14 months

·The office of the Registrar of Voters was alerted to this situation by Carol Robb.

·The Secretary of State’s office was also alerted by a phone call from Carol Robb.

·Knowing that voter registration fraud was taking place in Riverside County, Carol Robb got a list from the Registrar of Voters, containing new registrations and re-registrations between Aug. 18 and Sept. 3.  That file was used to identify over 400 voters whose registration changed from Democrat, or “declined to state,” to Republican.

·Calls were made to about 100 randomly selected voters from the 400+ on the list.  Because of incorrect phone numbers, only 33 interviews were completed.

·Phone interviews determined that 27, of the 33 voters reached had been “slammed”  — their party affiliation was improperly changed.

·The advice of the California Democratic Party was sought, and Bob Mulholland was designated to assist us.

·Carol Robb, Patrick Kahler, Sam Clauder, and Phil Robb (Carol’s husband, retired Deputy DA) met with Kari Verjil and her key staff on Friday, September 12.  The Registrar was given all information, including copies of our 33 telephone interview forms.

·Carol Robb also filed an on-line complaint with the DA’s Public Integrity Unit.

·Carol and Sam kept in close contact with Bob Mulholland, who constantly urged us to “go public.”

·When our calls to the DA’s office were unreturned Monday and again Tuesday morning, Mulholland took matters into his own hands, and sent out a press release from the state party linking San Bernardino’s situation to State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner’s repeated press releases, about his personal funding of Republican voter registration bounty programs.

·In the meantime, the Registrar’s office has handed over all information to both the District Attorney and the Secretary of State, with her request for immediate investigation.

·Congressman Baca was asked to call DA Mike Ramos to urge immediate action.

·Supervisor Josie Gonzalez has pledged to contact the DA’s office and urge immediate action.

·A copy of our press release and other information has been shared with a representative of Assembly Speaker Karen Bass.  Karen Bass will be meeting with both Secretary of State Debra Bowen and Attorney General Jerry Brown in the next day or so, and will share our information directly with them.

SBD Republicans are trying to cast this as Democratic sour grapes but it’s clear that there is something worth investigating here. Democrats are holding a press conference at 11 AM today to explain the matter to local media and demand an investigation and accountability.

It’s worth keeping in mind that this isn’t just about the 2008 cycle – but that the involvement of Steve Poizner, a leading candidate for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in 2010, suggests this could be a long-term strategy for Republicans in California. Certainly the track record of YPM, the Republican firm at the center of the scandal and with many years of voter registration fraud dating back to at least 2004, suggests this to be the case.