There were two special elections yesterday in fairly partisan districts, and we missed them. Sorry about that.  Let’s start with Republican-heavy SD-37:

Bill Emmerson (Rep) 36,507 41.61%

Matt Monica (AI) 3,884 4.43%

Anna Nevenic (Dem) 7,524 8.58%

A. B. Guerrero (Dem) 6,283 7.16%

David W. Peters (Rep) 2,036 2.32%

Justin Blake (Dem) 12,253 13.97%

Russ Bogh (Rep)        19,247 21.94%

The bolded names are the ones that will go on to the next round of elections, which I believe will be combined with the June 8 primary. This was to fill the seat of former Senator turned Riverside County Supervisor John Benoit.  Emerson, a right-winger by any standards currently represents AD-63, and will be the favorite in the next round of elections. However, Justin Blake is a really bright guy, and a pretty good candidate. Obviously, this is a long shot for him, but check out his website for more information.  

In AD-43, several Democrats are vying to replace Paul Krekorian, who left for the LA City Council.

MIKE GATTO             DEM                10,584    32.34

SUNDER   RAMANI        REP                       10,403    31.79

NAYIRI NAHABEDIAN      DEM                                 7,298    22.30

CHAHE KEUROGHELIAN     DEM                                 4,444    13.58

So, it’s going to be Gatto, who had a big money advantage over his closest competitor Nahabedian.  Mike Gatto has been Rep. Brad Sherman’s chief of staff, and is not the most progressive candidate ever.  This district has a heavily Armenian electorate, and while it votes for Democrats, you can occasionally get some interesting contests.  Gatto, barring some major upset, should cruise to the seat in June. The only question will be whether either of the Dems try to continue their campaigns on into the June 8 regular primary for this seat.  It usually doesn’t happen, but you never know with special elections.

Down in Los Angeles, we have a special election for Council District 2 coming up on September 22, as the former Councilmember from that District, Wendy Greuel, was just elected City Controller.  And you may be thinking–why are you cluttering a statewide site with a City Council election?  Well, if you talk to anyone who knows Los Angeles politics, they’ll tell you that there are three top-tier candidates for the seat: School Board Member Tamar Galatzan; former Paramount VP Chris (Christine) Essel; and…Assemblymember Paul Krekorian from the 43rd AD.

You may also be asking yourself why someone would leave the Assembly to run for a City Council seat.  It might seem like a step back, but it’s actually a no-brainer.  There’s good job security, as LA City Councilmembers can serve three four-year terms; there’s a lot of influence over a large budget and a geographic area that’s roughly the size of state assembly seat; and the fact that we have the highest-paid city council in the nation doesn’t hurt either.  Add to that the fact that Krekorian hasn’t been given any positions of prominence in the Sacramento hierarchy, and you can see why he might be thinking that his political future in the Assembly may be limited, even though he’s only in his second term.

There’s expected to be a runoff for the seat, as none of the three top candidates are expected to break the 50% threshold that would be needed to avoid one, and Krekorian is definitely expected to be in the runoff, which would take place December 8.

And if Krekorian wins, of course, that sets off the musical chairs cascading yet again, as there would then be a special election in AD-43–which is what this post is about.  I have had my ear to the ground about who would be the top-tier candidates in case of such a vacancy, and here are the three names that have come up so far:

Adrin Nazarian.  Nazarian is Krekorian’s chief of staff, I believe for his district office, and has apparently moved into the 43rd district recently, which seems to indicate a desire to run for the seat.  Nazarian has a few things going for him: he would almost certainly have Krekorian’s endorsement, which would matter in the district, and as a district rep it seems like he would know the lay of the land pretty well, in addition to having roots in the Armenian community, which constitutes roughly 15% of the district’s population.

Michael Amerian.  Last seen pulling a relatively surprising third-place finish in the primary for the Los Angeles City Attorney race, Amerian has shown he can run a strong campaign and can be expected to be a formidable campaigner.  Rumor has it that he just recently switched his voter registration to Democratic, which could be a problem in a Democratic district where a significant portion of the ground game will depend on volunteers from Democratic clubs–I haven’t been to Norwalk to confirm that for myself.

Mike Gatto.  Gatto is currently an attorney at the powerhouse firm Mayer Brown LLP, where he works alongside the likes of Dario Frommer, Bob Hertzberg and Mickey Kantor.  Before that, he worked in the district office of Brad Sherman, whose Congressional District overlaps with AD-43.  But in addition, Gatto has a good story: he grew up in the district and has lived there basically all his life, and he has been an activist since his teens, based on what I’ve heard.  So it would seem that Gatto has all sorts of things going for him.  First, if there is a race and it heats up, having friends like Hertzberg, Frommer (who used to represent AD-43 before Krekorian did), Congressman Sherman, and Mickey Kantor could be helpful for getting the resources that are necessary to win a race like this.  Second, his experience in Democratic activism could play a positive role in getting the endorsements of Democratic clubs, which matters for footsoldiers and small-dollar contributions.

This would be a special primary election, meaning that the top Democrat advances to the runoff and basically has an easy path to the seat.  But in a race between these three, at this early stage you have to like Gatto’s chances.  As the California Majority Report said a few months ago:

At least one fresh face is also considering the seat: Silverlake attorney and community leader Mike Gatto. A former top aide to Congressman Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), Gatto is young and telegenic and close to many of the area’s Democratic activists with a formidable fundraising base that could make him a contender.

I think the analysis is spot on.  Also, if you follow through to the CMJ piece linked above, you should also know that I did contact Eric Bauman and he mentioned that he is not currently interested in the 43rd, which should put that rumor to rest.

Down in Los Angeles, we have a special election for Council District 2 coming up on September 22, as the former Councilmember from that District, Wendy Greuel, was just elected City Controller.  And you may be thinking–why are you cluttering a statewide site with a City Council election?  Well, if you talk to anyone who knows Los Angeles politics, they’ll tell you that there are three top-tier candidates for the seat: School Board Member Tamar Galatzan; former Paramount VP Chris (Christine) Essel; and…Assemblymember Paul Krekorian from the 43rd AD.

You may also be asking yourself why someone would leave the Assembly to run for a City Council seat.  It might seem like a step back, but it’s actually a no-brainer.  There’s good job security, as LA City Councilmembers can serve three four-year terms; there’s a lot of influence over a large budget and a geographic area that’s roughly the size of state assembly seat; and the fact that we have the highest-paid city council in the nation doesn’t hurt either.  Add to that the fact that Krekorian hasn’t been given any positions of prominence in the Sacramento hierarchy, and you can see why he might be thinking that his political future in the Assembly may be limited, even though he’s only in his second term.

There’s expected to be a runoff for the seat, as none of the three top candidates are expected to break the 50% threshold that would be needed to avoid one, and Krekorian is definitely expected to be in the runoff, which would take place December 8.

And if Krekorian wins, of course, that sets off the musical chairs cascading yet again, as there would then be a special election in AD-43–which is what this post is about.  I have had my ear to the ground about who would be the top-tier candidates in case of such a vacancy, and here are the three names that have come up so far:

Adrin Nazarian.  Nazarian is Krekorian’s chief of staff, I believe for his district office, and has apparently recently moved into the 43rd district recently, which seems to indicate a desire to run for that seat.  Nazarian has a few things going for him: he would almost certainly have Krekorian’s endorsement, which would matter in the district, and as a district rep it seems like he would know the lay of the land pretty well, in addition to having roots in the Armenian community, which constitutes roughly 15% of the district’s population.

Michael Amerian.  Last seen pulling a relatively surprising third-place finish in the primary for the Los Angeles City Attorney race, Amerian has shown he can run a strong campaign and can be expected to be a formidable campaigner.  Rumor has it that he just recently switched his voter registration to Democratic, which could be a problem in a Democratic district where a significant portion of the ground game will depend on volunteers from Democratic clubs–I haven’t been to Norwalk to confirm that for myself.

Mike Gatto.  Mike is currently an attorney at the powerhouse firm Mayer Brown LLP, where he works alongside the likes of Dario Frommer, Bob Hertzberg and Mickey Kantor.  Before that, he worked in the district office of Brad Sherman, whose Congressional District overlaps with AD-43.  But in addition, Gatto has a good story: he grew up in the district and has lived there all his life, and he has been an activist dating from when he was Sargeant-at-Arms for the Los Angeles County Democratic Party when he was 18.  So it would seem that Gatto has all sorts of things going for him.  First, if there is a race and it heats up, having friends like Hertzberg, Frommer (who used to represent AD-43 before Krekorian did), Congressman Sherman, and Mickey Kantor certainly can’t hurt when it comes to raking in the cash that’s necessary to win a race like this.  Second, his experience in Democratic activism might play a good role in getting the endorsement of Democratic clubs, which matters for footsoldiers and small-dollar contributions.

This would be a special primary election, meaning that the top Democrat advances to the runoff and basically has an easy path to the seat.  But in a race between these three, at this early stage you have to like Gatto’s chances.  As the aforementioned Dario Frommer wrote on CMR some time back:

At least one fresh face is also considering the seat: Silverlake attorney and community leader Mike Gatto. A former top aide to Congressman Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), Gatto is young and telegenic and close to many of the area’s Democratic activists with a formidable fundraising base that could make him a contender.

Dario might be biased, but I think the analysis is spot on.  If you follow through to Dario Fromer’s piece, you should also know that I did contact Eric Bauman and he mentioned that he is not currently interested in the 43rd, which should put that rumor to rest.

Down in Los Angeles, we have a special election for Council District 2 coming up on September 22, as the former Councilmember from that District, Wendy Greuel, was just elected City Controller.  And you may be thinking–why are you cluttering a statewide site with a City Council election?  Well, there is a crowded field for this election, which in and of itself will make it interesting.  If you talk to anyone who knows Los Angeles politics, they’ll tell you that there are three top-tier candidates for the seat: School Board Member Tamar Galatzan; Paramount VP Chris (Christine) Essel; and…Assemblymember Paul Krekorian from the 43rd AD.

You may also be asking yourself why someone would leave the Assembly to run for a City Council seat.  It might seem like a step back, but it’s actually a no-brainer.  There’s good job security, as LA City Councilmembers can serve three four-year terms; there’s a lot of influence over a large budget and a geographic area that’s roughly the size of state assembly seat; and the fact that we have the highest-paid city council in the nation doesn’t hurt either.

There’s expected to be a runoff for the seat, as none of the three top candidates are expected to break the 50% threshold that would be needed to avoid one, and Krekorian is definitely expected to be in the runoff, which would take place December 8.

And if Krekorian wins, of course, that sets off the musical chairs cascading yet again, as there would then be a special election in AD-43–which is what this post is about.  Yes, it’s all contingent on Krekorian winning, but that’s a possibility definite enough to make us consider the consequences.

I have had my ear to the ground about who would be the top-tier candidates in case of such a vacancy, and here are the three names that have come up so far:

Adrin Nazarian.  Nazarian is Krekorian’s chief of staff, I believe for his district office, and has apparently recently moved into the 43rd district recently, which seems to indicate a desire to run for that seat.  Nazarian has a few things going for him: he would almost certainly have Krekorian’s endorsement, which would matter in the district, and as a district rep it seems like he would know the lay of the land pretty well, in addition to having roots in the Armenian community, which constitutes roughly 15% of the district’s population (and which usually turns out in greater numbers than the rest of the district).

Michael Amerian.  Last seen pulling a relatively surprising third-place finish in the primary for the Los Angeles City Attorney race, Amerian has shown he can run a strong campaign and can be expected to be a formidable campaigner.  Rumor has it that he just recently switched his voter registration to Democratic, which could be a problem in a Democratic district where a significant portion of the ground game will depend on volunteers from Democratic clubs.

Mike Gatto.  Mike is currently an attorney at the powerhouse firm Mayer Brown LLP, where he works alongside the likes of Dario Frommer, Bob Hertzberg and Mickey Cantor.  Before that, he worked in the district office of Brad Sherman, whose Congressional District overlaps with AD-43.  It would seem that Gatto has all sorts of things going for him, especially the ability to raise money–having friends like Hertzberg, Frommer (who used to represent AD-43 before Krekorian did), Congressman Sherman, and Mickey Cantor certainly can’t hurt when it comes to raking in the cash that’s necessary to win a race like this.  Gatto also grew up in the district, which never hurts when it comes to understanding what would motivate the voters.

This would be a special primary election, meaning that the top Democrat advances to the runoff and basically has an easy path to the seat.  But in a race between these three, at the early stage you have to like Gatto’s chances.  As we saw in the CD-32 race back in May, demographics and turnout matter, and people who are tied into the Armenian community do have an advantage.  But the presence of more than one Armenian candidate, if it pans out that way, will certainly have a diluting effect, especially if other candidates end up filing.  And if the fundraising advantages that Gatto has actually pan out, it seems to me like Gatto would be an early favorite–for a race that may not even happen.