Timm Herdt questions the size of the districts

by Brian Leubitz

When the dreams of a constitutional convention were high around here, we often said that one of the first structural reforms would be the size and shape of the Legislature.  The idea of a unicameral Assembly of 120 legislators came up again and again.  But when you really look at the numbers, as Timm Herdt did today, they are simply shocking:

The size of the Legislature – 80 Assembly members, 40 senators – was established in 1879. At the time, there were fewer than 1 million people living here.  Today, there are 37.3 million. That means that an Assembly district must contain about 465,000 people and each Senate district about 931,000. …

How big is a Senate district? Five of the 50 states have fewer people. The districts are 10 times larger than the national average, three times bigger than those in the second-place state, Texas.(VC Starvcstar.com )

And, as somebody who grew up in Texas, there is a big caveat on that Texas figure.  While the 31 Texas Senate districts are huge, the 150 House districts are far more manageable.  So, while you don’t normally know who your Senator is, I always knew, personally, my representative.  In fact, I went to school with his children.

Of course, I know my Legislators now, but I work in politics.  I expect that very few Californians can even name their legislators, let alone say that they have spoken to them personally.  It is physically impossible.

But the question became more clear with the redistricting process, as various pockets and enclaves fought for their own interests.  The people of American Canyon fought separation from Napa County and inclusion with Sonoma tooth and nail.  And Santa Rosa was not thrilled being shipped west.

But, wouldn’t it just make sense for Santa Rosa to have its own district? It is certainly a large enough population to merit that.  I’m not arguing for New Hampshire size districts, which are only about 3400 people/district.  However, districts of about 100,000 would make a lot of sense.  Now, that would net us nearly 400 members of the legislature.  However, if done right (and with a smaller staff for each member) it wouldn’t cost all that much more money while making government a lot more transparent and approachable.

Put that one in your initiative process and vote on it.  Well, maybe not until the budget has stabilized for a while…

UPDATE: It turns out that Students for California’s Future has a nice little report on this subject. Check it out here for some of the possible options on creating a bigger Legislature.

by Brian Leubitz

A few weeks ago, it was nearly impossible to find any good maps of the proposed districts.  Now that we have a tentative final map, they are sprouting up everywhere.  And with all the shakeups in the maps, it is pretty hard to keep track of who is in what district, who is going to run next time, and where the hot races will be.

However, AroundTheCapitol.com is looking to put some of that information in one easy place. They have set up pages with the maps of every district, who is in the district now (or the nearest approximation of the district) and who will run.  I randomly chose a district to check out, so here is the page for the 10th AD as defined in the new maps.  (It is basically Jared Huffman’s current district.)

Scott Lay, the creator of the site, is accepting information about who is running in the districts and updating accordingly.  You can also leave your comments using the facebook commenting system.

If you have info, or want info, on the districts, it is definitely a nice little site to check out over the next few weeks.

Maps have a few more hurdles, but should stand up

by Brian Leubitz

Well, the vote was due on August 15, but why not go ahead and figure out how things are going to go early?  Apparently, the maps, viewable here, are set to have sufficient votes.

New legislative, congressional and Board of Equalization boundaries were tentatively approved today by California’s Citizen Redistricting Commission, ending months of hearings, public comments and debate.

Final action will be taken Aug. 15 on the maps, which are expected to be used for next year’s statewide races.

The 53-district congressional plan nearly was killed by Republicans, receiving no votes from GOP members Michael Ward and Jodie Filkins Webber. Three other Republicans on the panel gave the maps thumbs up.(SacBee)

The CRP will likely sue to block implementation, as well any number of other smaller groups, but any major changes seem unlikely.  Perhaps a border here or there, but the CRP isn’t all that likely to get the wholesale changes they are looking for.  While a 2/3 majority in both houses seems a stretch, I think you’d have to say that these maps make at least somewhat more likely.

One more thing, I must now admit that I was wrong that the commission would not be able to come up with an agreed upon map.  Well, it appears that I was wrong, and that the commission was able to find consensus.  How quaint.

The first draft of maps were rather confusing, but since then, the Commission has given us some nice Google-maps powered visualizations.  And today they have released their draft maps through that system.  Here is the link

To get the latest maps, choose the type of map you want from the middle dropdown on the top row, and then provide an address.  You can then scroll around the map to find the district you are interested in.

While Republicans threaten to sue, 2012 could be an interesting election season

by Brian Leubitz

Redistricting matters.  It matters so much that Republicans are already planning their assault on the redistricting commission’s tentative final maps which were released today.  Take a look at that picture to the right, and you can see what it is worth. (Hat tip to Dante)  The Republicans are simply scared of complete irrelevance:

California Republican Party Chairman Tom Del Beccaro was laying the groundwork Monday to fight some or all of the maps, saying attorneys were considering either a lawsuit or a referendum that would place the issue before voters.

Asked if the commission’s final product would give Democrats a two-thirds majority in the Legislature, Del Beccaro said simply, “I think it has raised the stakes for that considerably.” (SacBee)

These maps do put several sitting state legislators and members of Congress in jeopardy.  There won’t be a huge shift in partisan representation, but the Republicans have more to lose in the Legislature than the Democrats do.  The Republicans, while they would like to get a majority at some point, feel comfortable with their empowered minority.  They like their safe seats, and are terrified of fighting for toss-up districts.

If the Dems lose two seats in both houses, they are still in the same position that they were before. But if Republicans lose two in both houses, and the Democrats then have a 2/3 supermajority.  The 2/3 threshold is still a very difficult task, and would require another big round of turnout in 2012. These maps do make it more possible, but far from probable.  But with stakes like that, the CRP is right to worry.

Meanwhile, it seems that communities of interest have taken precedence over all else in the considerations.  Despite the fact that the text of Prop 11 made city and county borders, and communities of interest the express priority, some aren’t so fond of that.  Dan Walters calls it a de facto segregation, and he is somewhat correct on that score.  For better or worse, we Californians have separated ourselves out. Grouping not just by race, but also by interests and, as Walters points out, political views.  Urban life appeals to some, but not to others.  This goes a long way in indicating your political leanings.

You can keep track of the maps here, but a first vote is scheduled for Friday.  At this point it looks like the Commission is reaching a sort of consensus that will result in a map emerging from the process.  (If so, I will duly issue a mea culpa on my prediction that it would be hard for them to even produce a consensus map.)

Even Districts Are Elected in Gubernatorial Elections, Odd Districts in Presidential Elections

by Brian Leubitz

From a tweet from the Press-Enterprise’s Jim Miller:

The #CAredistricting commission is scheduled to act on numbering SD’s Thursday. Odds vs. evens have big implications. (Twitter)

Here in San Francisco, this has been the talk of much of the City.  As San Francisco has been consolidated into one Senate District, if the number assigned was even, the eastern half of the City would be represented by nobody that it had elected.  Mark Leno’s (SD-3) term expires in 2012.  Leland Yee (SD-8) is termed out in 2014, but is running for Mayor. If he wins, there will be a special election in early 2012 to replace him. The replacement could either last a few months or for a couple of years.

In other parts of the state where senate districts are set to be dramatically changed, such as the North Coast and several areas in LA, they will represented by temporary assignments to Senators that they did not elect.  This process is rather bizarre, but that’s what you get when you elect legislators for districts longer than 2 years, there really is no other way around it.

Keep an eye out for those numbers this week, it could raise a whole other raft of questions.

Redistricting Commission Ready for Legal Attacks

by Brian Leubitz

When Prop 11, the first redistricting measure, was on the ballot, I was fond of saying that it would never end up drawing a map that was actually used by anybody.  My suspicion at the time was that the 14 members would not be able to get the 9 member majority (3+3+3) to agree to a map.  That is still a possibility, as we really have no certain indications as to how the commissioners are going to vote and how happy they are with the process. That being said, seeing how the public comment has gone, and how the webcast meetings are going, I would be surprised if they were unable to come to agreement.

But that doesn’t mean that judges may not end up making the maps.  Tom Del Beccaro, the CRP Chairman has been making noises about how the maps favor Democrats.  Apparently he wants districts carved out for his legislators, and doesn’t like the fact that the districts more closely represent the fact that Democrats have a rather sizable registration advantage in the state.  I would be pretty shocked if the CRP or some closely related proxy group doesn’t sue shortly after the August 15 due date.  He’s basically said as much:

Tom Del Beccaro, state GOP chairman, claims the panel has been “overtaken by partisanship and incompetence” in hiring legal and line-drawing advisers, and in drawing political districts, some of which he considers oddly shaped and unfair.

“It’s either shenanigans or they’re doing a terrible job,” he said. “We can’t afford either one.”

Del Beccaro said he is concerned about draft proposals that analysts say would give Democrats a strong chance to gain a two-thirds majority in the Assembly and Senate.(SacBee)

And of course the noise isn’t only from the Right, as former Senate President Don Perata says he has talked with several groups who are considering suing to block the maps as well.  The Commission has the authority to protect its maps, and will do so.  If I had to guess, I would say that a few districts here or there will get tweaked, but the majority will be implemented.

But, that’s only a guess, and the courts will end up sorting much of this out.  

With the draft redistricting maps, all of the members of Congress are busy trying to figure out where they will run.  The musical chairs as Reps. shift down the street or to another area entirely won’t really be complete until we get a real map.  At this point, it looks like the commissioners are working pretty well together, and may actually get a map. (Oh, and if that happens…well, I was wrong about them not being able to agree. But I’m still waiting to admit anything yet.)

But as the musical chairs progresses, a few folks who didn’t have a seat before are looking for one now.  And the Top-2 system might play in here.  In an area mainly represented by Ken Calvert (R-Corruption and Riverside Cty.), who is looking towards shifting to a different district, a sitting Supervisor thinks it might be time to launch a campaign from the center:

Five-term Riverside County Supervisor John Tavaglione said Thursday he would run for Congress in a newly proposed district that overlaps much of his current territory. … As currently drawn, that seat would contain slightly more Democrats than Republicans and Gov. Jerry Brown bested his Republican challenger, Meg Whitman, by 6 percentage points last year.

Tavaglione, who lives in Riverside, described himself as a moderate Republican with a record of working across party lines.

“I believe we need to see balance — and strong balance — within our legislative offices in order to get things done,” he said. “That takes strong leadership and I’ve proven myself in that regard.” (Riverside P-E)

Now, that district could, and really should, be a Democratic district.  If the presidential election is a blowout for Obama in California, this seat will probably ride the coattails.  Otherwise, who knows.  However, it is no sure thing that a “moderate” like Tavaglione will be the GOP standard bearer, and Dems are likely to find somebody with a similarly “moderate” record. But there are so many variables here with Top 2.  How many Dems run, how many Republicans run?  The Dem bench is a little thin in this area, so it would be surprising to see more than a couple competitors.  However, at least one other Republican, Asm. Jeff Miller, who is not a “moderate” announced he is in for the seat.  Expect others.

Of course, this process is playing out in other districts across the state.  The North Coast will likely be looking for a new Congress member, and the rumors of Noreen Evans running might not work as her Santa Rosa base is now in a seat that Mike Thompson will likely pursue.  Norman Solomon and a Jared Huffman are also looking at that one.

With the Top-2 system, both June and November will carry much weight as these races sort themselves out.  Now we just wait on the Commission…

UPDATE: More intrigue, with Asm. Isadore Hall saying he’s running for one of the new seats, but only if Maxine Waters doesn’t want it.  You’ll find his release over the flip.

Assemblymember Isadore Hall Announces Campaign for Congress                                                    

Compton, California – California State Assemblymember Isadore Hall announced his campaign for Congress today.  Hall intends to run in a new Congressional District, which according to the first draft of maps released by the California Citizens Redistricting Committee on June 10th, might include the cities of Compton, Carson, Lynwood, Hawthorne, Gardena, Lawndale, portions of the City of Los Angeles and Unincorporated Los Angeles County.

“As a local School Board Member, Councilmember and Assemblymember, I have worked tirelessly to make a difference in this community,” said Hall. “Our district needs a representative that will fight cuts to education and gang prevention programs, protect critical frontline services, and partner with President Obama to create family wage jobs.”  

“I have spent the past few days talking with friends and community leaders about running for this new seat,” Hall added.  “The response has been overwhelming and I am energized by the grassroots support we have already received.”

Hall is a former two term President of the Compton Unified School District Board of Trustees. He was elected to the Compton City Council in 2003 where he served in various leadership positions including Mayor pro Tempore.  Hall was elected to the California State Assembly in 2008 and served as Assistant Speaker pro Tempore during his first term. He currently serves as a member of the Appropriations, Elections and Redistricting and Human Services Committees. He chairs the Assembly Committee on Government Organization.

The youngest of six children, Hall was born and raised in the City of Compton.  Hall holds a bachelors degree in Business Administration, a Masters Degree in Management and Leadership from the University of Southern California, a Masters Degree in Public Administration from National University and will be conveyed his Ph.D. from Next Dimension Bible College later this summer.

No incumbent member of Congress currently lives in the proposed Congressional District; however, Hall will not seek election to Congress in the event that Congresswoman Maxine Waters seeks to represent the new district.  

Get your comment engines running!  Officially the full maps were supposed to be released today at 9AM, however, it seems the drafts now available lack district numbers. For the Assembly, this really doesn’t matter so much, but for the Senate, that is a big deal.  You could end up with a bunch of Senators sitting out 2012-2014 and then hopping back.  You see Senators will serve the full four years of their term, even if there district and the corresponding number varies wildly.

So, take a look, and let’s see what we have here…

UPDATE: The Bee did a little counting for us, and they’ve posted the resulting maps showing which districts lean Dem or Republican.  You can find those here.  Going just by registration, there are 29 districts in the State Senate with a 20K advantage to Democrats.  Of course, that demands that Dems win elections where they have previously lost, most noticeably in the area that is now Sam Blakeslee’s district.

Update 2: The Washington Post has an interesting analysis of the Congresional map showing a 3 to 5 seat gain for Democrats.  This is more a result of unwinding the weird districts from 2001 than population shifts, but if we can pick up a few seats to make up for Texas that’s a good thing.

Lucas also has a good review of the San Diego aspects of the new maps at TwoCathedrals.

I haven’t been able to really go through any of this, but you can take a look at what the redistricting commission has come out with today for their so-called working maps.  You can download the plethora of maps at their website.  Friday will yield us the first real set of “draft” maps.

Being that I’m in SF, the first thing that jumped out at me is the fact that we would have only one Senate seat.  There are also some maps expected out on Friday, so stay tuned.