LA Times has released their down-ballot polling data:.

Attorney General: 51% Brown (D), 34% Poochigian (R), 3% Other, 12% Don’t Know
Treasurer: 50% Lockyer (D) 26% Parrish (R) 3% Other, 21% Don’t Know
Insurance Commissioner: 43% Bustamante (D) 38% Poizner (R) 4% Other 15% Don’t Know
Lieutenant Governor: 42% McClintock (R) 41% Garamendi (D) 3% Other, 14% Don’t Know
Controller: 36% Chiang (D) 30% Strickland (R) 3% Other, 31% Don’t Know
Secretary of State: 35% Bowen (D) 33% McPherson (R) 3% Other, 29% Don’t Know

I see this as pretty good news.  In most of the races there is a strong don’t know category.  Most of the state’s independent voters will typically break for the Democrat.  So, a tied poll is probably a good thing for the Democrat.  McClintock, who has a one point lead, is ahead based on name recognition from the Recall.  I’m guessing 42% is pretty much his ceiling.  He’s pretty darn conservative, too conservative for this state.

Now, I’m not totally in love with the LA Times polls, they seem to poll to the right.  For example, the 13 point lead for Westly in the primary was an LA Times poll.  Their track record ain’t so hot. 

One other point, the Times also came out with their governor’s poll.  It has a 17-point lead for Arnold at 50-33.  As I said, this polls to the Right. But quite frankly 33% is a wildly low number for a Democrat in this state, even an unpopular Dem.  However, if Angelides doesn’t pick up some steam soon, there is a bit of a danger of turnout hurting Dem candidates.

Bill Lockyer is leading a charge to seek damages from major car companies for the pollution that automobiles emit.  It’s the first such suit. :

California Attorney General Bill Lockyer sued the six biggest U.S. and Japanese automakers Wednesday, claiming their cars’ greenhouse gas emissions contribute to global warming that harms the state.

The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in Oakland, claims human-induced global warming has reduced California’s snow- pack and the fresh water it provides; raised sea levels along the California coast; increased smog over cities; and boosted the threat of wildfires. This collective public nuisance has cost the state millions for assessments and preparations, it says.

“Defendants, by their annual emissions in the United States of approximately 289 million metric tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, are substantial contributors — among the world’s largest contributors — to global warming, and to the adverse impact on California,” the suit says.

Named as defendants are General Motors Corp., Toyota Motor North America Inc., Ford Motor Co., Honda North America Inc., Chrysler Motors Corp. and Nissan North America Inc. (OakTrib 9/21/06)

Of course, if you asked me who was the problem, I’m not sure that I would point solely to the car companies.  The real problem is that the prices of both cars and gas do little to internalize the externalities of the ecological damage that they wreak upon the environment.

I think the suit is a valid one.  The car companies are enablers for our oil addiction. The car companies claim it’s a political stunt by Lockyer.  But let’s be honest here.  Claude Parrish?  Who? yeah, that’s Lockyer’s opponent for Treasurer.  To say that Lockyer is a VERY large favorite is a bit of an understatement.  I don’t really think Lockyer really needs this kind of stunt.

Rather, I think this is an attempt at a novel legal tactic. Like the gun manufacturers, car makers must own up to their responsibility for our oil-addicted economy.

The down-ballot Field Poll came out this morning, with pretty good, although unsuprising news for Democrats in statewide races. All 6 down ballot Dems are leading, and only SoS and Insurance Commissioner are really close right now.

However, these numbers should be taken with more than just a grain of salt. As shown in the table below, many voters have no opinion of either or both candidates. So much of this poll is really based on mere party affiliation. I suppose that it’s good to know that a D in a statwide race of unknowns still stakes you to a lead.

See the flip for the full table of information from the Field Poll. I’ll also put this in the extended of the Poll HQ.

Fabian Nunez and Bill Lockyer have proposed AB 457, a bill that introduces a price cap:

Frustrated by soaring gasoline prices, two of California’s top elected officials proposed legislation Thursday designed to crack down on consumer gouging by allowing a temporary price cap in times of “abnormal market disruption.”

Attorney General Bill Lockyer and Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez jointly proposed the measure, Assembly Bill 457, in response to pump prices that have jumped by more than $1 per gallon since January.

“We need to make sure that California is not the victim of any type of market manipulation or Enron-type scheme to artificially inflate the price of gasoline at the pump,” Núñez said.
***
“It’s a publicity stunt,” said Assemblyman Russ Bogh, R-Cherry Valley. “It will do nothing to solve the gas problem, because they’re not addressing the real issues.”

Rather than demonize oil companies, lawmakers ought to be pushing to fast-track refineries and increase oil supply, Bogh said.(SacBee 6/9/06)

Personally, I don’t think that the way to deal with this is to extend temporary price caps and interfere with the market.  The market has a way (Adam Smith’s invisible hand) of making sure that gas gets to the people who value it most highly. 

However, Bogh has it even more wrong than the bill.  The way to solve the problems is not to increase refinery capacity for many reasonsts.  Of course, the most glaring reason is that nobody really wants to build any more refinery capacity.  The other major reason is that there just isn’t the oil to keep building refineries and expect the oil just to keep rolling in. 

So, the obvious suggestions would be to increase public transport capacity and alternative fuel production.  But, those don’t sound as immediate as gas caps, so gas caps it is I suppose.

Well, the election last night had its ups and downs, but I think overall, it was an exciting night.  The Democratic voters elected a strong slate heading into the general election.  We’ll take them one by one.

Phil Angelides has officially claimed victory over Steve Westly. ( KGO7 has the victory speech video.) The campaign was mired in muck, but Angelides was ultimately able to emerge. I would have appreciated a clean campaign, but now the focus needs to shift to Schwarzenegger.  He’s already started his campaign, so we need to redouble our efforts and ensure that we can proudly claim Governor Angelides in the fall.

This was something of a nailbiter early, but John Garamendi’s lead grew throughout the night. I sincerely hope Jackie Speier will be back on the statewide stage.  I think throughout the campaign she looked like something of a rising star.  Garamendi was helped along by his allegations of improper insurance company harassment.  Garamendi will be taking on Tom McClintock, and you can’t help but be pretty confident about our chances there.  The California GOP does pretty poorly when they choose their idealogues, and Garamendi will continue that trend in November.

This one wasn’t really that close.  I think ultimately it looked more like Debra Bowen ran a more focused campaign.  She primarily stuck to the issues that are important to the SOS position.  Deborah Ortiz’s campaign never really got any momentum.  Bowen has a formidable challenge in the primary in the person of incumbent, but unelected, Bruce McPherson, a so-called moderate.  Bowen has been campaigning on the issues of voting machines, and knows the issues.  This could be an important race, so keep an eye out for it.  It will likely fly below the radar for a while.

John Chiang and Joe Dunn ran fairly clean campaigns, and for that I am thankful.  Hopefully Dunn will be back, I think he has a lot to offer the state in terms of electability and vision.  Chiang will take on Tony Strickland, a corrupt GOP former assemblyman and leader of the Norquist-inspired California Club for Growth.  Thank you GOP for not nominating the more electable candidate, Abel Maldanado.

Current AG Bill Lockyer ran unopposed.  He will face anti-tax loon and BOE Member Claude Parrish.  Once again, thank you GOP for not nominating the more electable candidate, Keith Richman.

Jerry Brown won solidly, mostly based upon his name recognition.  Rocky Delgadillo ran a good campaign, but he just ran head-on to a popular former governor.  Again, I hope Rocky will be back.  I think he has a lot to offer the state.  Chuck Poochigian will be hard-pressed to seriously challenge Brown.

Current Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante easily defeated Kraft foods heir John Kraft.  The general will be an interesting race against wealthy businessman Steve Poizner.

The down-ballot Field poll was released this morning. So, I’ll run down the numbers, starting with the Constitutional offices.

Lt.Gov

Jackie Speier has moved into a small lead over John Garamendi, apparently all those billboards aren’t paying off for him like he would have hoped.  Liz Figueroa has continued to slide into oblivion.  Currently, Speier has 30%, Garamendi 25%, and Figueroa 8% with 37% undecided. It was thought by some that Figueroa would act as a spoiler for Speier, but that doesn’t seem to be playing out.  Figueroa has only 7% of women and only 5% in Speier’s and Figueroa’s home region of Northern California.  She is a bit stronger in Southern California at 10%, but this is probably just due to Latino identity politics.  Speier’s large lead amongst women might push her over the top in a primary that is dominated by women.  She currently leads 33-21-7 on that figure.  On the GOP Side, Tom McClintock is running unopposed.

Attorney General

Jerry Brown‘s name recognition, (and a Time Magazine feature story didn’t hurt on that account), without much in the way of campaign spending, has allowed him to retain his large lead over Rocky Delgadillo.  Currently Brown has 51%, Delgadillo 24%, and 25% are undecided.  I would go deeper into the numbers, but Brown seems to be dominant in all the crosstabs.  On the GOP side, Poochigian is running without siginificant opposition.

Controller

This race has flown under the radar, with a huge 63% undecided.  Joe Dunn is clinging to the slimmest of leads with 19 points, while John Chiang has 18.  Unsuprisingly, Dunn is doing better in Southern California (21-14) and Chiang better in Northern California (25-15).  This one will probably get a lot fewer people voting on it that the gov race, and name recognition just might push a state senator over a BOE member.  But, at this point, it’s too close to call.  And on the plus side, both campaigns in this race have run great campaigns.  I’m excited to see either man win.  On the GOP side, Strickland has a 43-32 lead over Maldanado.

Treasurer

Bill Lockyer is running unopposed.  On the GOP side, Keith Richman is leading small government loon and current BOE member Claude Parrish at 18-17 with 65 undecided.

Secretary Of State

Deborah Ortiz narrowly leads Debra Bowen at 25-19.  However, this might be merely identity politics as 65% is undecidided.  Ortiz seems to be holding her home region of Sacramento and NorCal (28-15), but with undecideds so high, it’s hard to glean much from the poll.  And another thing, am I totally missing something, or does Ortiz not have a campaign website?  That would be pretty crazy, and if so I would definitely have to publicly give my support to Bowen.  C’mon folks, technology is a big part of that job, get with the 21st century.  McPherson is running unopposed for the GOP nomination.

Prop 82

Prop 82 has been crashing in support recently.  And the news today is not good either.  Currently it’s losing by a margin of 41 Yes to 46 No.  The scare tactics used by the No on 82 folks seem to be working.  And I must admit, I’ve heard several very progressive people admit that they are a bit nervous about voting for the program.  I think at some level people just don’t like instituting such a large program via direct democracy.  Also, part of this is the additional taxes.  Those on the right jsut hate government, those on the left seem to want to use those taxes for other purposes.  However, I think it’s going to be a close race for 82.  The SacBee notes that:

Despite the new poll numbers, supporters say they believe they will win. They expect to do well among Democrats, who will be more likely to go to the polls to vote in the gubernatorial primary and other hotly contested Democratic races, said Nathan James, a spokesman for the Yes on 82 campaign.

“We always knew this election was going to come down to the wire,” James said. “We have a number of advantages going into this election.”

But opponents of Proposition 82, including the California Chamber of Commerce, have been pushing the arguments that the program would be too costly and would potentially drive private preschools out of business.

Pamela Zell Rigg, president of the California Montessori Council, said opponents were hoping voters would turn against the measure as they learned more about it. (SacBee 6/3/06)

So, obviously turnout will be key in all these races. But for Prop 82, where both parties get to vote and Ds are skewed in favor of 82(53-33) and Rs are skewed against 82 (25-65), the “who” of turnout will be key.  If many Republicans stay away from what is an otherwise uninteresting primary election for them, it might allow 82 to pass.