(cross-posted from The Courage Campaign)
So says today’s Wall St. Journal.
This is Clinton-Gore country — or it was once. Now, several of former President Bill Clinton’s earliest and biggest fund-raisers — such as Sandy Robertson, founder of investment bank Robertson Stephens and a partner at technology buyout firm Francisco Partners; and Steve Westly, an ex-eBay Inc. executive and former controller for California — have defected to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.
The article cites several reasons for this movement away from Sen. Clinton, including fears that she is too ideologically rigid for their pro-business sensibilities, that she comes off as too “cold and calculating” to be electable and that Obama appeals much more to the newly wealthy under-35 Silicon Valley contingent.
More over the flip…
But interestingly, while many pro-business Silicon Valley Democrats have reservations about Clinton because they fear she will govern from too far to the left (umm, huh?), they seem to give Obama, clearly a more liberal Senator, a pass.
Sen. Obama’s supporters acknowledge their candidate is largely untested on policy matters, and there is no certainty that he would be more conservative than Sen. Clinton on health care, tort reform or fiscal policy. It is his persona, they say, that is generating excitement.
“No one’s calling me about Barack’s stands on business or tech issues,” says John Roos, the Obama point man in Silicon Valley and chief executive of the law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati. “This is a phenomenon of a … leader of a new generation who has the potential to bring this country together.”
In other words, as Frederick Baron, a lawyer and Obama fund-raiser who spent two years in the Clinton Justice Department, says:
“In the lexicon of high tech, Barack Obama is the next-generation solution.”
I guess we can add ideology to the list of barriers Obama transcends.
This does not mean, however, that we should be crying for Senator Clinton quite yet. She’s managed to build a whole new Silicon Valley base among female tech executives and despite the flight of some high profile Hollywood fundraisers to the Obama camp, she managed to raise $2.6 million at a gala event at the Beverly Hills home of supermarket magnate Ron Burkle on Saturday.
And then there’s Ron Brownstein’s editorial in yesterday’s L.A. Times, which argues that Obama’s appeal among upscale educated voters makes him the latest in a long line of Democratic losers who have had upscale appeal — Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, Bill Bradley, among them. For while Hillary may lose some of the upscale vote to Obama, there are no signs that he is making any inroads among the much more crucial Democratic constituency of blue collar voters. And certainly, while Obama’s appeal among African American voters is making him more competitive with Clinton than his predecesors would have been, Brownstein sees a trend that is in danger of cementing:
Among whites, Clinton so far is showing broader reach. She’s competitive upscale and dominating downscale, a combination that allows her to lead Obama in most early polls. In the latest nationwide Gallup survey, for instance, Obama led Clinton by 3 percentage points among white, college-educated Democrats, but she bested him by 23 points among whites without college degrees, and she led overall.
Could this discrepancy be due to the likelihood that more educated voters are by definition going to be more engaged politically at this early stage and thus more likely to be aware of Senator Obama? Perhaps it’s just a name recognition thing?
Could be. But Brownstein makes a compelling case that Senator Clinton’s blue collar appeal is what is driving her strength in polls throughout the country. So, how does Obama’s gaining on Clinton in Silicon Valley play into this dynamic? Certainly it is good news for fundraising, but it only reinforces this trend.
As Brownstein says:
Since Obama entered the campaign, the question he’s faced most often is whether he is “black enough” to win votes from African Americans. But the more relevant issue may be whether Obama is “blue enough” to increase his support among blue-collar whites.