Delegate rules in Super Tuesday states might not produce clear front-runners
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In a two- or three-person race such as the Democrats’, proportional allocation means candidates will win some delegates in virtually every state, raising the possibility of a tie, or at least an unsettled race, after Super Tuesday. If there’s no final decision on Super Tuesday, operatives in both parties said, attention would turn to primaries in Texas and Ohio on March 4, in Pennsylvania on April 22 and in other states.
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“We’re in uncharted territory,” said Burdett Loomis, a University of Kansas political-science professor.
[Note the total Super Tuesday Delegates 2,075 was adjust down to reflect those already committed from those states.]
As most objective analysis are now admitting, this still won’t be decided by Super Tuesday. 1902 Delegates are up for grabs that day — no one Candidate is likely to get enough of them, to get to that Magic number needed to win: 2025
Pledged Delegates for ALL States Vs Number of Delegate needed to win
So the race is still on … it’s a long ways from over.
A lot can happen in 3 months.
The best thing to do is to GET BUSY, supporting your Candidate.
We are trying to construct a more inclusive society. We are going to make a country in which no one is left out.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
And then — and then, finally, if you’re one of the millions of Americans who have yet to cast your vote in this democratic process, beginning on February 5th and moving beyond, your voice will be heard and we will be there with you every single step of the way.
Join us in this movement. Join in this campaign. Let’s make America what it’s capable of being.
God bless you all and thank you for your support and thank you for being here and thank you for your voice.
John Edwards is asking that everyone’s voice be heard. Isn’t that part of this Democracy? Letting all voices be heard? We may not always like what they have to say, but they have a right to speak. The current problem we face is that the system allows those with the means to drown out those who do not. 99% of the people are being shouted down by the top 1%. How can we let this continue?
JOHN EDWARDS: Thank you all very much.
I want to join Senator Clinton and President Clinton in congratulating Senator Obama.
Now, the three of us move on to February 5th…
(APPLAUSE)
… where millions of Americans will cast their vote and help shape the future of this party and help shape the future of America.
Our campaign from the very beginning has been about one central thing and that is to give voice to millions of Americans who have absolutely no voice in this democracy, to give voice…
(APPLAUSE)
… to give voice to people like the woman I met in Kansas City a couple of years ago, who told me the story of working full-time and not being able to pay both her heating bill and her rent and having to come home every night in the winter and dress her children in all of their clothes, in their coats, put them under blankets and put them in bed together so they could stay warm.
snip
… you are worried, worried because you’ve lost your job and you’re worried sick about finding a new job, your voice will be heard in this campaign.
If you’re one of 37 million Americans who wake up every single day literally worried about feeding and clothing your children and living in poverty, your voice will be heard in America and it will be heard in this campaign and we will speak for you and we will fight for you.
snip
And if you’re one of the forgotten middle class, people who are working and struggling just to pay their bills, literally worried about every single day, we will give you voice in this campaign.
And last, if you are one of the extraordinary men and women who have served this country patriotically and worn the uniform of the United States of America and you’re not getting the health care that you deserve and you need or if you’re one of 200,000 veterans who live in this country, who, every night, go to sleep under bridges or in shelters or on grates, as long as we are alive and breathing, your voice will be heard in this campaign and it will be heard in America.
Your voice will be heard, but only, only if John Edwards stays in this race. And because of the virtual media brown out, we have to speak for John Edwards and let everyone know his presence is essential to the process. We may have to fight to be heard, we may have to write letters, call people and canvass to be heard, but we have to speak out and use our voice for John. It’s that simple.
I sincerely believe that many of the issues that Obama and Clinton are focusing on would not have the same time in the spotlight as they do now (and no, I am not implying that Obama and Clinton don’t care about these issues). Edwards won the debate heard round the world and it really was the reason for Edwards’ surge in the middle of the week, people saw something that they’d been longing for, someone who cares about what they want in a new President. This is about Americans and their needs not the needs of our politicians. The bickering will not get any of the things that are badly needed in this country. It will get us a nominee, but it won’t help Democrats rally the party around the most important issues to them. We have to be the party of ideas now (Well, I think we always have been).
This is why John needs to stay in this race, he has to remain as the voice of reason and as the conscience of the party. And I know that this is not news for any of the steady Edwards supporters, we’re in it until John says he’s no longer going to fight. We fight for him until he says that his fight is over.
And everyone knows about the letter from Martin Luther King III and I know we’ve posted it, but King makes the argument for why I still support Edwards. Edwards is the voice of the voiceless and he is pushing the issue of poverty and economic injustice to be heard and recognized as a real threat to our Democracy.
“I am disturbed by how little attention the topic of economic justice has received during this campaign,” wrote King. “I want to challenge all candidates to follow your lead, and speak up loudly and forcefully on the issue of economic justice in America.
“From our conversation yesterday, I know this is personal for you. I know you know what it means to come from nothing. I know you know what it means to get the opportunities you need to build a better life. And, I know you know that injustice is alive and well in America, because millions of people will never get the same opportunities you had.
“I believe that now, more than ever, we need a leader who wakes up every morning with the knowledge of that injustice in the forefront of their minds, and who knows that when we commit ourselves to a cause as a nation, we can make major strides in our own lifetimes.”
The curse of poverty has no justification in our age. It is socially as cruel and blind as the practice of cannibalism at the dawn of civilization, when men ate each other because they had not yet learned to take food from the soil or to consume the abundant animal life around them. The time has come for us to civilize ourselves by the total, direct and immediate abolition of poverty.
Martin Luther King, Jr., Where Do We Go from Here: Chaos or Community?, 1967.
Can you believe that 41 years later our Country still faces an abundance of poverty? We have the money to fight useless wars but not the money to feed and care for those who need our help. How can we let this stand? Is this not a moral issue? How can we call ourselves the leaders of the free world when 47 million of our people have no health care? How?
“I think our voices together are more powerful than our voices alone.”
“Today, too many Americans are separated from the opportunities of our country because of where they live,”
“This is our time now. It falls to use to redeem our democracy, reclaim our government and relight the promise of America for our children.”
“I have learned there are much more important things in life than winning elections at the cost of selling your soul.”
“I don’t believe open government means popular answers in public and honest candor in private.”
I’m extremely proud of this diary, John Edwards says, “There is nothing we can’t do if we do it together.” and I am going to include some of it here.
Democrats must take stands and must show how their interests are not about making the The Democratic Party the only party, but making the Democratic Party, the Party of change, of hope and of convictions, that puts people before profits and that works for it’s people, not against them. These stands don’t just benefit Democrats either, it is in the best interest of every American, regardless of ethnicity, religion or gender. And that’s why we have to fight to take the Government back by showing Republicans that we have OPINIONS, those are not bad things. I’d much rather lose by having strong opinions than lose by having luke warm stands that can’t be offensive to anyone, because you know what? That doesn’t excite people, it doesn’t get them to vote and it doesn’t show them how the Government can work in their favor.
“There’s a wall around Washington and we need to take it down. The American people are on the outside. And on the other side, on the inside, are the powerful, the well-connected and the very wealthy. That wall didn’t build itself or appear overnight. For decades, politicians without convictions and powerful interests gathered their bricks and their stones and their mortar, and they went to work. They went to work to protect their interests, to block the voice of the American people, and to stop our country’s progress. They went to work to protect, defend, and maintain the status quo.
“That wall around Washington, it protects a system that’s rigged and guess who struggles as a result? Every single day, working men and women see that wall when they have to split their bills into two piles pay-now and pay-later; when they watch the factory door shut for the last time; when they see the disappointment on their son or daughter’s face when there’s no money to pay for college. Every single day they see that wall when they have to use the emergency room as a doctor’s office for their son because they can’t afford to pay for health care. This is not okay. That wall has to come down.
…
“That’s why America needs a fighter, Democrats. We need one to break down that wall so that we can see Our America-imagine Our America-and build one America.
…
“This is bigger than politics. Bigger than any candidate or political party. Because the truth is that it’s not just Republicans who built this wall. Democrats helped too. Too many politicians from both parties are choosing self-preservation over principle, compromise over convictions.
“You have a choice in this election. You have to decide what kind of person you want as your next president. Do you want someone who is going to pretend that wall around Washington isn’t there, or defend the people who helped build it? Or do you want someone who is going to lead with conviction and tell you the truth, and have a little backbone? Do you want someone who is going to hope that the people who spent millions of dollars and decades building that wall, and have billions more invested in keeping it up, are going to be willing to compromise, to take it down voluntarily? Or do you want someone who is going to stand up to those people and fight for your interests, when the chips are down, when your backs are against the wall, every single day?
“We have a choice in this election. We can keep trying to shout over that wall. We can keep trying to knock out a chink here and there, to punch little holes in it and hope our voices get through. We can settle for baby steps, half-measures and incremental change, and try to inch our way over that wall and toward a better future. Or we can be bold and knock it down. …
“This is going to be the fight of our lives. I know because I’ve spent my whole life fighting the powerful on behalf of hard-working people, and I can tell you this: they are not going to give up their power easily. But I can also tell you this: if you fight them – and you are right – you can win.
The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much it is whether we provide enough for those who have little.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
And even more telling, others are noticing Edwards as well, overseas.
John Edwards has pushed issues of poverty – homelessness, hunger, lack of health insurance, lack of worker rights, the decimation of America’s trade union movement – back into the forefront of the American political debate. Even if Edwards fails in his quest for the presidential nomination, his contribution has been extraordinary. So, how about the candidate making a second job promise: John Edwards ought to be declared Labour Secretary-designate. It would piss off corporate America to no end, but it would be a brave choice and would give working Americans a powerful reason to go to the polls come Election Day. In such a role, Edwards could end up being as powerful a voice for reform as was FDR’s labour secretary Frances Perkins during the New Deal years.
We’re a long way from November, but I’d love to see a Democratic ticket with not just strong presidential and vice-presidential candidates, but Anderson and Edwards also in the wings. That would be a slate seriously worth voting for.
Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.
Martin Luther King, Jr.
In the first 25 days of this quarter, campaign has raised more online than the whole 4th quarter – the vast majority of which will be doubled by federal matching funds
Do you want to help keep John fighting? Donate to his campaign!
Annabel Park is one of the most intelligent, articulate, talented people around. For those of you who don’t know Annabel, she was a major force in helping to elect Jim Webb in the fall of 2006, founding the “Real Virginians for Webb” effort, helping (along with her friend, filmmaker Eric Byler) to create several popular videos (e.g., “Generation Webb”), and rallying the northern Virginia Asian-American (especially Korean-American) community to vote for Webb. Since then, Annabel and Eric have become very well known for their work on their 9500 Liberty project about the issue of illegal immigration in Prince William County, Virginia. Now, Annabel and Eric are backing Barack Obama for President, and are working hard to make that a reality. I invite you to watch her video. Thanks, and Go Obama!
The National and local news media usually only focus on who ‘wins’ the caucus or primary race. They provide little information on election night regarding the important race, that for delegates.
This is interesting stuff from CNN.com for the Republican totals and CNN.com for the Democratic totals (kudos to grodriguez for providing the link in his blog).
The magic number of delegates for the Democratic nominee is 2,025. Thus far, 443 Democratic delegates have been chosen, including those from today’s South Carolina Democratic primary as well as the so-called Super Delegates (e.g., governors, U.S. Senators, U.S. Representatives). This means that only 10.94% of the Democratic delegates are committed to date.
More below the flip…
Hillary Clinton leads the field far and away (I have deleted the Democratic candidates who have thus far dropped out of the race). The results are as follows:
Hillary Clinton: 230
Barack Obama: 152
John Edwards: 61
Mike Gravel: 0
Clinton still has more delegates committed to her than all of her challengers combined. And, kudos to Obama and to his Election 2008 team for today’s win in the South Carolina primary. The challenge for Obama is clearly to increase his appeal to the White voters as he apparently only won 24% of the White vote in the SC primary. Obama follows Clinton with 152 delegates, while Edwards has 61 delegates. Edwards has his own challenge: win a primary or caucus state!
The magic number of delegates on the Republican side is 1,191. Thus far, 148 Republican delegates have been chosen including the Super Delegates. This means that only 6.22% of the Republican delegates are committed thus far. Mitt Romney leads the Republican candidates, but John McCain has moved from third place in the delegate count into second primarily because of his primary win in the South Carolina last week. The totals are as follows:
Mitt Romney: 73
John McCain: 38
John McCain: 29
Ron Paul: 6
Rudy Guiliani: 2
Very few Republican delegates have been chosen, but Romney has almost as many delegates as his challengers combined. The pressure will be on Rudy Guiliani next week in Florida’s primary as he has put all of his 9/11 eggs into that one basket.
February 5, 2008, looms on the horizon when another 22 states hold their primaries and caucuses. The picture will be much clearer then, when over 50% of the delegates on both the Democratic and the Republican sides will have been chosen by the end of that day’s primaries and caucuses.
On The Issues: Unbiased Comparison of Clinton, Obama, Edwards
I’m sure I’m not the only one who’s confused about who I should vote for in the upcoming primary. I’ve been leaning towards voting for Edwards all along but I also like a lot about Obama and I have to admit I think Hillary is the scrappiest fighter of the three.
I’m certain I won’t find clear comparisons of the three candidates from the MSM (mainstream media) and in fact they’re doing an excellent job of making my research even more difficult. They’re treating this election like a celebrity battle between Brittany Spears and Paris Hilton instead of the crucial decision for our national leader.
So, I’ve found some info in various places and I’m putting it together for myself, and for you right here. I’ve focused on issues that are 1) Of great importance to me personally, and 2) Where the candidates differ substantially on their position or previous votes. Please feel free to share this around to your contact list. As I said, I’m certain I’m not the only one who’s split on this decision.
Iraq & “War on Terror”
Each candidate’s position on addressing the threat of terrorism in general and their attitude toward specific campaigns, principally the invasion and occupation of Iraq. Additional positions may be found in the National Security section Source.
Barack Obama
Words: Obama advocates a slow, scheduled withdrawal from Iraq (which he argues was a strategic blunder) and feels we should have an open dialogue with Syria and Iran. He believes that the focus of the “war on terror” should be on al-Qaeda in Pakistan and the Taliban. “We live in a more dangerous world, partly as a consequence of Bush’s actions, primarily because of this war in Iraq that should have never been authorized or waged. … The US has to reserve all military options in facing an imminent threat – but we have to do it wisely.”
Actions: A long time critic of the invasion of Iraq, Obama voted AGAINST redeploying troops out of Iraq by July 2007 (2006) but FOR redeploying troops out of Iraq by March 2008 (2007). The Center for Security Policy has given Obama a rating of 21%.
Hillary Clinton
Words: Clinton believes we should redeploy troops out of Iraq accompanied by regional diplomacy; she takes responsibility for her vote to authorize the use of force against Iran, but does not feel it was a mistake, claiming “we are safer than we were, but we’re not yet safe enough”. She further proposed setting a cap on troop levels until they are redeployed. She also feels that we should rule out using nukes on Iran and believes in supporting Israel unequivocally. “There is no question mark next to me – there’s an exclamation point. I am an emphatic, unwavering supporter of Israel’s safety and security.”
Actions: Clinton proposed a measure setting October 11, 2007, as the expiration date of the authorization to use force against Iraq. She voted FOR authorizing the use of force against Iraq (2002), FOR funding military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq (2003), FOR on requiring on-budget funding rather than emergency funding for Iraq (2005), AGAINST redeploying troops out of Iraq by July 2007 (2006), and FOR redeploying troops out of Iraq by March 2008 (2007). The Center for Security Policy has given her a rating of 21%.
John Edwards
Words: Edwards feels that al-Qaeda should be the target in the “war on terror”, not Iraq, that North Korea’s nuclear program should be shut down, and that our security depends on working with our allies. He voted for the authorization to use force in Iraq, but has since recanted and apologized for that decision. He supports requiring President Bush to seek new authorization for military action. “What this global war on terror bumper sticker-political slogan … was intended to do was for Bush to use it to justify everything he does. The ongoing war in Iraq, Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib, spying on Americans, torture, none of those things are OK.”
Actions: Edwards voted FOR authorizing air strikes in Kosovo (1999) and FOR using all necessary force (1999), FOR authorizing the use of force against Iraq (2002), and AGAINST funding military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq (2003).
Corporations/Regulation
Policies in relation to corporate regulation and deregulation, tax incentives, business development, and corruption are all included. Source.
Hillary Clinton
Words: Clinton feels that “to the corporate elite” middle class and working Americans are invisible. She believes there is a “culture of corruption and cronyism” in Washington and that we need to “stop outsourcing critical government functions to private companies, close the revolving door between government and the lobbying shop, and end no-bid contracts”.
Actions: Clinton voted FOR restricting rules on personal bankruptcy (2001) and FOR repealing the tax subsidy for companies that move jobs offshore (2005). The US Chamber of Commerce has given her a rating of 35%.
John Edwards
Words: Edwards argues that we should eliminate tax breaks for all companies outsourcing jobs. He feels we should support organized labor against mistreatment by corporations and that record corporate profits do not benefit the struggling middle class.
Actions: Edwards voted FOR restricting rules on personal bankruptcy (2001). The US Chamber of Commerce has given him a rating of 15%.
Barack Obama
Words: Obama believes that corporations should be responsible for work conditions and pensions and that there should be tax incentives for corporate responsibility. He feels we should close tax loopholes for companies that relocate abroad and end tax breaks for companies that outsource jobs.
Actions: Obama voted AGAINST reforming bankruptcy to include means testing and restrictions (2005) and FOR repealing the tax subsidy for companies that move jobs offshore (2005).
Health Care
A variety of health-related issues are included, ranging from universal health care and AIDS research to veteran’s benefits and assisted suicide. The focus is largely directed by what each candidate has chosen to address. Source.
John Edwards
Words: Edwards believes that universal health care can be implemented through a combination of cost containment and a variety of revenue sources. He advocates full funding for AIDS research. “We’re asking everybody to share in the responsibility of making health care work in this country: employers, those who are in the medical insurance business, employees, the American people – everyone will have to contribute in order to make this work.” He proposes requiring all Americans to obtain health insurance by law.
Actions: Edwards voted AGAINST limiting self-employment health deduction (1999), FOR including prescription drugs under Medicare (2000), AGAINST the Republican “prescription drug benefit” bill (2001), FOR allowing patients to sue HMOs (2001), FOR allowing the import of prescription drugs from Canada (2002), and AGAINST a limited Medicare prescription drug benefit (2003). The American Public Health Association has given Edwards a rating of 100%.
Barack Obama
Words: Obama believes that the federal government should provide health care for everyone. He also feels that we need to increase competition in the insurance and pharmaceutical markets and advocates better funding for AIDS research and prevention. “Too many hard-working Americans cannot afford their medical bills, and health-related issues are the number one cause for personal bankruptcy. Promoting affordable, accessible, and high-quality health care is a priority.”
Actions: Obama voted FOR negotiating bulk purchases for Medicare prescription drugs (2005), FOR increasing the Medicaid rebate for producing generics (2005), FOR expanding the enrollment period for Medicare (2006), and FOR requiring negotiated prescription prices for Medicare (2007). The American Public Health Association has given Obama a rating of 100%.
Hillary Clinton
Words: Clinton believes in incremental reforms that will lead to universal health care through insurance premium subsidy, but feels that single-payer health care is unrealistic. She also supports AIDS education and research and advocates expanding eligibility for the SCHIP program, expanding Medicare coverage, and requiring all employers to contribute to the cost of their workers’ health care. She proposes expanding the Family and Medical Leave Act and barring insurers from rejecting patients with pre-existing conditions. “We have to lower costs, improve quality and cover everybody.”
Actions: Clinton voted AGAINST the Republican “prescription drug benefit” bill (2001), FOR allowing patients to sue HMOs (2001), FOR allowing the import of prescription drugs from Canada (2002), AGAINST a limited Medicare prescription drug benefit (2003), FOR negotiating bulk purchases for Medicare prescription drugs (2005), FOR increasing the Medicaid rebate for producing generics (2005), FOR expanding the enrollment period for Medicare (2006), AGAINST limiting medical liability lawsuits to $250,000, and FOR requiring negotiated prescription prices for Medicare (2007). The American Public Health Association has given Clinton a rating of 100%.
What About the $$$?
See which groups/industries are donating to which candidates (Republicans included) from Open Secrets category:
You can take THIS QUIZ to figure out which candidate most matches your positions on the issues. (Note: this quiz matches you up with ALL candidates including some who have dropped out of the race.) I was quite surprised by the order in which the top three Dems came up for my own quiz. It’s caused me to re-think my vote.
Barack Obama has decisively won the South Carolina primary over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. At this point, all that remains to be seen is how far Clinton will fall back of Obama. Edwards likely third place finish will surely be a big disappointment.
So, how does this affect California’s February 5 primary? Surely there will be some kind of SC bump for Obama, but will it be enough to challenge Clinton who was running solidly ahead as of last week’s Field Poll. And with vote-by-mail turnout being pretty low up to this point, were people waiting for this election before casting their votes. What do you think? Did this affect your vote?
