Dave mentioned earlier today, that NY Governor David Patterson is headed the wrong way on their budget, further playing into the cyclical economy. One of the important cuts that we should perhaps take as a lesson is the cut of about 1,300 prison guards and close several prisons. NPR has a story about the impact and causes of those layoffs, and it’s worth the 2 minutes of your time to check it out.

You see, New York’s prisons are under utilized. You read that right, while California struggles with ridiculous parole policies that lead to increased recidivism, New York is clearing their prisons out and shutting them down. During the 90s, the crime rate decreased quite rapidly across the nation, California included. New York chose not to put more people in prison for parole violations to keep them stocked, but rather to work to release prisoners who didn’t warrant being in the clink.

Perhaps if we stopped trying to look tough, and started trying to actually prevent crime, we too could save a billion or so on prisons this year.  Just a thought…

Nobody could have predicted that the Yacht Party wouldn’t budge.

Democrats in the state Assembly on Tuesday countered the plan by Republican lawmakers for deep cuts to help bridge California’s gaping budget hole, putting up for a floor vote a new $19 billion plan through mid-2010 that would adopt Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s tax ideas.

But the Democrats’ latest plan failed to garner the required two-thirds majority support as partisan bickering over tax increases continued and Republicans refused to approve taxes […]

Late Tuesday, Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, D-Baldwin Vista (Los Angeles County) ordered lawmakers to remain in the chambers until the Republican proposal could be written in bill form, with hopes to vote on it. But the night ended without a vote because the bill wasn’t ready, Bass said. She plans to bring the GOP proposal to the Assembly floor for a vote today […]

After more than two hours of debate, Assembly members initially voted 46-27, along party lines, on the Democrats’ tax bill, missing the two-thirds majority threshold by eight votes. A separate budget bill that contained spending cuts also failed to gain the required support, receiving a 48-27 party-line vote in early evening.

But rather than end the floor session, Bass announced that lawmakers were locked in, preventing them from leaving the Assembly floor and nearby meeting rooms.

At nearly 11 p.m., Bass reopened the vote for the two bills, and all Democrats but one who voted “yes” earlier decided to abstain instead, making the final tally 0-26 for the budget bill and 1-27 for the tax bill.

One interesting sidelight – there are 29 Assembly Republicans, yet the “No” vote on the budget never got more than 27 votes.  So two cowards must have taken a walk.  I’d find the bill to note exactly which cowards took a walk, but LegInfo is labyrinthine (UPDATE: Randy Bayne helpfully informs that the culprits are Paul Cook, Cameron Smyth and Sam Blakeslee.  Cook and Smyth in particular were in somewhat tough re-election fights in November, so that’s interesting).  We do have abstentions on the budget and tax votes on the Democratic side as well, including all four of the new lawmakers (Huber, Block, Perez and Buchanan) and Charles Calderon on the tax plan.  Huber and Calderon abstained on the budget cuts, and Mariko Yamada voted against it because of specific agricultural cuts.  The bill was fated to fail, but I’d want to know more about the freshman abstentions.

What this means is that $5 billion in public works projects will likely be shut down, at precisely the time when fiscal spending is needed to jump-start the economy.  It will lead to thousands of layoffs (thanks, pro-growth Republicans!).  This is really not that hard.  State budgets with balanced budget amendments have very little maneuverability.  They can cut spending or raise taxes.  Counter-cyclical spending is CLEARLY preferable.

Almost every single economist agrees, the last thing we want to do in a recession is slash government spending. We want, in fact, to increase that spending so that it is a counter-cyclical force to a deteriorating economy. So the question, then, is how to most safely generate the revenue to maintain or increase that spending. By “most safely” I mean how to raise the revenue in a way that will minimize any negative economic impact. And the answer comes from Joseph Stiglitz:

“[T]ax increases on higher-income families are the least damaging mechanism for closing state fiscal deficits in the short run. Reductions in government spending on goods and services, or reductions in transfer payments to lower-income families, are likely to be more damaging to the economy in the short run than tax increases focused on higher-income families.”

So, first and foremost, you don’t want dramatic spending cuts (beyond the usual rooting out of waste/fraud) and you don’t want to raise taxes on middle- and lower-income citizens who both need the money for necessities, and are the demographics that will most quickly spend money in a stimulative way. That leaves taxes on the super-rich, and Stiglitz – unlike anti-tax ideologues – has actual data to make his case. We know Bill Clinton raised top marginal tax rates in a hobbled economy in 1993, and the economy then boomed. We also know the results of a recent Princeton University study, which looked at states that had raised taxes on the very wealthy during the post-9/11 recession. The analysis found that the tax increases were both the most reliable revenue generator and the safest in terms of minimizing any negative economic impact. Indeed, the states that pursued this course of action saw a net job growth, and almost no tax flight (ie. people fleeing the state because of the tax increase).

It’s a no-brainer.  It’s sad to say that David Paterson is making the wrong choice in New York State, and that most of the tax hokes in the Democratic package are regressive, and impact low- and middle-income citizens.  It’s far sadder that we’re now going to shut down infrastructure projects passed by voters at a time when we need nothing BUT infrastructure spending, and fling ourselves into something approaching bankruptcy, solely because of ideology.

Something for the legislature to read while they’re on LOCKDOWN.

• We’re in a special session of the legislature, separate from their normal work.  So while the Yacht Party stonewalls and both sides bicker, they are making $173 a day for the privilege, with the current total at $128,000 and counting.  Good work if you can get it.

• Stockton, Merced and Modesto were dead last nationally in home prices, with homes in all three metro areas losing at least 30% of their value in the first nine months of the year.  The Central Valley is just getting buried.  If you want to know where the rest of the state (and the nation) is headed, look there.

• The state’s Healthy Families program, California’s contribution to S-CHIP, was on the verge of becoming extinct until First 5 provided a $16 million dollar cash infusion, allowing their enrollment to remain open through the end of the fiscal year in June.  This is of course one of the programs on the Yacht Party’s chopping block.  Because who likes healthy kids?

• Peter Schrag tore the Yacht Party a new one today, and it was most satisfying.

Today’s GOP is a very different party, a hard-line group of self-insulated ideologues, more like a political cult than like an inclusive party that stretches its core principles to be inviting to people at or beyond that core.

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

• SD-26: Mark Ridley-Thomas, now an LA County Supervisor, has endorsed Assemblymember Curren Price to fill his seat in the upcoming special election, the primary of which is scheduled for March 24.  Price is expected to be challenged by Assemblymember Mike Davis.  Either of them winning would trigger ANOTHER special election for their vacant Assembly seat.  And on and on.

• CA-31: Ben Smith is reporting that Xavier Becerra will turn down the position of US Trade Representative.  When there was a two-week lull after the rumor leaked with no announcement, I figured as much.  All the more reason for Hilda Solis to run for Governor, as the Vice-Chair of the House Dem caucus won’t be opening up.

Crossposted at www.communityorganize.com.

Yesterday 150 former Obama campaign volunteers and staff, and other organizers from around the Bay met in San Francisco to reflect on the successes of the campaign and to strategize about how to support community organizing in the Bay Area and across California. Participants came from San Francisco, Berkeley, Oakland, Marin, Contra Costa County, San Joaquin County, Tri-Valley, Fremont, Palo Alto and Santa Clara. Most had worked for the Obama campaign, including traveling to other states and organizing hugely successful phonebanks.

We spent the afternoon working on our vision of community organizing, and thinking about the incredible potential of this group working together on a local, regional and statewide level.

Here’s some feedback shared at the meetings and in the small groups:

On the successes of the campaign: “Respect, Empower, Include.” “No drama Obama.” “Empowerment and access given to us.” “The campaign came to CA to organize, not just for $.”

On what we have learned: “Learned about own capacity for leadership.”

What’s a community organizer? Someone who listens, who doesn’t give up, who “empowers people for a common cause” and who can “be a bit of a hardass” when needed. Community organizing is “Getting the resources that are needed but that we don’t yet have.” It means “passion” and “commitment” and “clear goals.”

We shared a host of critical issues facing our nation, state and community that concern us, like health care for all, dealing with the California budget crisis, getting out of Iraq, marriage equality, education, and supporting union organizing.

And we collected seven bags of donated food for the San Francisco food bank, and lots of surveys with written feedback about the campaign and future organizing.

We will be sending out the results of all of this feedback to participants in the next few days, and plan to get together again soon after the New Year.

In the meantime, former Obama campaign organizers are rolling out a new website, www.communityorganize.com, to link volunteers across the state who want to continue working together.

The threat of the State of California actually declaring bankruptcy actually declaring bankruptcy seemed ridiculous not that long ago, despite all of the craziness in our budget. Yet, unless we do something about the deficit, we creep closer to the precipice. So, Speaker Bass is considering doing something drastic: Locking the legislators in the Capitol during the week of Christmas.

Assembly Majority leader Alberto Torrico, D-Newark, floated the idea publicly last week of an around-the-clock lockdown of legislators during Christmas week, beginning Monday.

Bass, D-Los Angeles, did not indicate how long she might order the Assembly to stay inside the Capitol if no proposal is passed today to help bridge the state’s projected shortfall of about $40 billion over 18 months.

Bass and Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg met briefly this morning with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. An Assembly vote is expected today on a budget proposal expected to consist of both budget cuts and tax increases to help ease the fiscal crisis. (CapAlert

The Lockdown itself wouldn’t be that amazing, but for the week of Christmas? Wow, that would be something. But even given that, it just still seems a long shot to get at the Republican votes in the Assembly.  They are the genuine idealogue, letting some grand vision over ride the reality of the situation.

But other than taking away the Legislator’s christmas, what options are there? I suppose Arnold could get tough on the Republicans and get a deal with the Dems on prisoner release, (and maybe even a targeted release of prisoners in the Rep. districts.) Cut off funding for water projects to the Rep districts completely? But at what point do we start cutting off our nose to spite our face, just as the Republicans are doing?

As we slowly descend into the abyss, when do we give up and call a snap special election to raise revenues and change the underlying system that is throttling us?

Dave Johnson, Speak Out California

California Republicans finally, finally submitted what they claim is a plan to attack the budget deficits, detailing specifics of the cuts they are demanding.  The plan they submitted only cuts the deficit in half, thereby admitting (but not admitting) the urgent need to raise taxes to cover the other half of the deficit.

The Republican plan guts public schools, community colleges, Medi-Cal, transit, mental health and many other programs.  And yet it still leaves half of the deficit in place.  So it isn’t really a “plan” at all.  It is just one more extremist demand that we gut public schools.

A phrase like “guts schools and programs” becomes abstract when it is heard often enough.  So what does this mean to the average Californian?  What kind of education will children receive as we push to 40 or more students per classroom?  Will they be safe if the district cannot afford crossing guards or buses?  Will any of us be safe after police and firefighters are cut back?  Do we go another decade without improving mass transit or even repairing roads and bridges?  Will epidemics spread as health care is cut back?  What about three-hour lines at the DMV?  And what happens to people’s ability to train for jobs when community colleges are cut way back?  

The Republicans demand that we sacrifice the education of an entire generation of school-aged Californians, so that a few wealthy people and corporations can become even wealthier!  Their benefactors are covered — with their kids are in $20,000-a-year private academies.  But what will this do to the economic future of the rest of this generation, and to the future of California?  They don’t care.

This process as it has unfolded over so many years has shown us that California is ungovernable until we remove the current 2/3-requirement system that allows a small group of extremists to hold the state hostage.

Click through to Speak Out California.