Around 40% of registrations came online since September 17, 2012 kickoff of online registration

by Brian Leubitz

The elections carousel keeps on chugging around, as two more districts follow up from LA City Council elections. The two districts in play are AD-45, where a huge crowd of candidates seeks to replace Bob Blumenfield, and SD-26, where Holly Mitchell and Mervin Evans are looking to replace Curren Price.

In AD-45, the race will likely go to another round, as seven Democrats, three Republicans, and 1 NPP are vying for the race. The district is heavily Democratic, so the risk of having one of those strange upset races because of too many candidates in one party shouldn’t be that high. I mentioned the race a while back, but with as many variables in play, who knows what will happen. However, it appears that Damian Carroll and Matt Dababneh are the two strongest progressive Democrats.

Meanwhile in SD-26 (soon to be SD-30), Asm. Holly Mitchell is looking to move down the hall to the Senate, and is the strong frontrunner.

It is appropriate that voters should be going to the polls as we approach the anniversary of the online voter registration. In the 12 months since Secretary of State Debra Bowen launched the online voter registration application on September 19, 2012, more than 911,145 Californians have registered for the first time or updated their voter record using this online system.

“The Internet replaced the mailbox for about 4 out of every 10 people who registered or updated their voter record since California began offering online voter registration last year,” said Secretary of State Debra Bowen, California’s chief elections official. “Registering to vote has never been easier and with the many options available, there are no excuses not to.”

You can register to vote at registertovote.ca.gov/.

I threw the rest below the fold.  Here’s the latest update with 65% reporting in CA-32:

Though the lead continues to shrink, I don’t think Cedillo can make up 3,000 votes with what’s left out there.  Judy just declared victory, I’m told.

UPDATE More votes in, and Chu upped her lead to 3,300 votes with 75% in.  It’s over.  Congratulations to Judy Chu.

…In other races, Carmen Trutanich is going to win the City Attorney’s race.  He’s up 54-46, by over 13,000 votes with 55% of the vote in, and he’s been gaining with each update.  What a terrible race run by Weiss.

As for Council District 5, it’s Paul Koretz 53-47 over David Vahedi, though the spread is just 1,200 votes with 40% in.  That’s not quite over.

Update from CA-32, 15.77% reporting:

Those are slightly softer numbers for Chu, but she has quite a cushion.  If vote by mail is 50% of the vote, which is what it looks like, there’s no way Cediloo can catch her.

SD-26: Price is up to around 70% of the vote.

City Attorney, with 15.5% in:

Going to be tough for Weiss.

UPDATE Starting to come in over in CA-32 now. 32% reporting:

Doesn’t look like there will be enough votes left for Cedillo.  Judy Chu is likely headed into a runoff with Betty Chu.  Chu-Chu.  Um. Chu.

…City Attorney update, 22.3% in:

I think Trutanich is going to take this.  Simply an embarrassing loss for Villraigosa, if this holds.

UPDATE: Tightening up a bit in CA-32. 45.95% in:

Still a 3,300 vote lead for Chu, but it is tightening.

…City Attorney, 31% in:

And the 5th Council District, 14% in:

That one was getting long.  So here’s the deal.  1A-1E are going down.

17.4% precincts reporting

1A: 36.6% Yes, 63.4% No

1B: 40.1% Yes, 59.9% No

1C: 38.6% Yes, 61.4% No

1D: 38.0% Yes, 62.0% No

1E: 37.5% Yes, 62.5% No

1F: 76.4% Yes, 24.6% No

Just to make a point, in the city of Palmdale, a mildly conservative city in LA County, they have Measure B, a transient occupancy tax (hotels), on the ballot.  Right now it’s passing with 67% of the vote.

Don’t tell me this is a repudiation of taxes.  It’s a repudiation of bad governance.

…Update: 21.9% precincts reporting

1A: 36.7% Yes, 63.3% No

1B: 40.2% Yes, 59.8% No

1C: 38.6% Yes, 61.4% No

1D: 38.0% Yes, 62.0% No

1E: 37.6% Yes, 62.4% No

1F: 76.4% Yes, 24.6% No

Interesting that the measure giving money owed to schools is doing best, ay?

… Brian checks in from the war room with the news that the AP called 1F for the Yes side.  Yay!  Now the legislators will be REALLY motivated!

Just a matter of time before 1A-1E get called.

…I’m done updating the ballot measures, as it’s obvious what’s going to happen there. So far LA County has yet to update any totals for the local and federal elections, so we wait.

…Arnold concedes: “We have heard from the voters and I respect the will of the people.”  Whew, for a second there I thought he was going to institute the spending cap anyway!

You know what he’s intimating here, of course.  He’ll pull out his budget #2 and try to implement it.  The May 20th strategy is upon us.

UPDATE by Brian: Check the flip for the No on 1A Press release about the results. Arnold is flying back tonight to have a Big 5 meeting tomorrow. Would love to be a fly on the wall for that one.

…just to update, there have been, um, no updates from the LA Registrar of voters on these local races.  Here, pulled up from the bottom, are the results for the top six finishers, I assume among absentees, in CA-32 thus far.

JUDY CHU                          DEM    6,388   41.98

GIL CEDILLO                       DEM    2,628   17.27

BETTY CHU                         REP    1,938   12.74

EMANUEL PLEITEZ          DEM    1,233   8.1

TERESA HERNANDEZ     REP    1,202   7.9

DAVID A TRUAX                 REP    1,036   6.81

…Todd Beeton tweets in from Judy Chu HQ to say that people there feel good.  

…Finally starting to get some more numbers from LA County.

City Attorney: Trutanich 52%, Weiss 48%.  The spread is about 3,200 votes with 12% in.

5th District City Council: Koretz 53%, Vahedi 47%.  The spread is about 700 votes with 10% in.

Nothing new from CA-32 or SD-26.

SacBee has a post-mortem up.  Pretty much just CW.

VOTERS OVERWHELMINGLY REJECT FLAWED AND UNWORKABLE PROP. 1A

Low Voter Turnout Rebukes Costly Special Election, Says to Governor, Legislators: Get Back to Work

SACRAMENTO, CA — California voters overwhelmingly rejected the flawed and unworkable Prop. 1A and sent a clear message to Governor Schwarzenegger and legislators that they are tired of gimmicks and costly special elections and instead want real leadership and solutions to California’s budget crisis.

“Tonight’s results sent a message from the people of California that the Governor and the legislature must stop passing the buck and do the job they were elected to do.  It’s time for the governor and legislative leadership to put the same level of enthusiasm and effort into finding real solutions for California’s budget problems as they did trying to convince voters to vote for a flawed and confusing Prop. 1A,” said Willie L. Pelote, Sr., Assistant Director, Political Action Department, AFSCME International.

Today’s dismally low voter turnout demonstrated that this was not an election driven by anti-tax fervor.  Instead, it shows voters are tired of gimmicks and costly special elections and instead want real leadership and solutions to this crisis.

“The Governor and the legislature must develop budget solutions that put California on a real path to fiscal stability and stop sending voters flawed proposals that won’t work,” said Lillian Taiz, President, California Faculty Association.

Marty Hittelman, President, California Federation of Teachers added, “Now that these flawed and unworkable reform proposals have been voted down, the governor and legislative leaders must put aside the campaign rhetoric and work to craft real budget solutions with adequate revenue to solve our problems and put California back on track.”

#             #             #

OK.  So we’ll start with a results thread here.  Just to recap, in addition to the statewide special election, here are the other key races today, at least in the LA area:

City Attorney: This is a runoff election between Jack Weiss and Carmen Trutanich.  This election got extremely nasty in the final weeks, although they pulled all their attack ads last night and went soft and cuddly for the stretch run.  The low turnout probably favors Trutanich.  If Antonio Villaraigosa cannot drag his pal Weiss across the finish line, then it speaks volumes about his ability to draw voters in what’s supposed to be his local base.

LA City Council 5th District: This is another runoff between former Assemblyman Paul Koretz and neighborhood council leader David Vahedi.  This happens to be a very engaged, well-off, activist district, so I would actually expect turnout to be decent, relatively speaking.  Progressives have mobilized for Koretz, and most of the competitors in the first round primary endorsed him.

SD-26: Curren Price will be a state Senator by the end of the night, replacing Mark Ridley-Thomas.  His Republican opponent is a rabbi, which rules, but I think he was outspent 300:1.

CA-32: This should be a very interesting race tonight, with Judy Chu, Gil Cedillo and Emanuel Pleitez the main competitors.  Will Cedillo’s nasty, negative strategy pay off?  Did the late endorsers to Chu’s campaign recognize a trend?  Can Pleitez use social media politics to a good showing?  We’ll see.

…CapWeekly has a pre-analysis of their own for you to all read while we wait out the results.  Anthony York thinks Schwarzenegger will tack hard right as a result of this defeat.  He has no guiding political principle, so any port in a storm, I guess.  I think York’s reading the right tea leaves, and success or failure will depend on where the Democrats elected to reflect the will of the people will go.

…18.6% turnout reported for LA County.  Remember, there were actual other elections on the ballot out here.  Wow, that’s just terrible.

…OK, the first results are in.

1A: 39% Yes, 61% No

1B: 42% Yes, 58% No

1C: 40% Yes, 60% No

1D: 39% Yes, 61% No

1E: 39% Yes, 61% No

1F: 77% Yes, 23% No

The totals are about 1 million votes, presumably absentees at this point.  If you are charitable and say that there will be 30% turnout, there are maybe 4-5 million votes left.  So I’d say that 20% of the totals or so are in at the very least.

…Another huge dump of absentees. And 13% of precincts reporting:

1A: 37% Yes, 63% No

1B: 40% Yes, 60% No

1C: 39% Yes, 61% No

1D: 38% Yes, 62% No

1E: 38% Yes, 62% No

1F: 75% Yes, 25% No

…First results from CA-32 are in over at LA County’s website.  Early, but it looks good for Judy Chu.  9% reporting:

JUDY CHU DEM    6,388   41.98

GIL CEDILLO DEM    2,628   17.27

BETTY CHU REP    1,938   12.74

EMANUEL PLEITEZ  DEM    1,233   8.1

TERESA HERNANDEZ REP    1,202   7.9

DAVID A TRUAX REP    1,036   6.81

Probably would be in better shape without Betty Chu in the race.

…17% now reporting, and the numbers are basically the same as before.

1A: 37% Yes, 63% No

1B: 40% Yes, 60% No

1C: 39% Yes, 61% No

1D: 38% Yes, 62% No

1E: 38% Yes, 62% No

1F: 75% Yes, 25% No

…briefly on the other elections: with 10% in, Curren Price has 69% of the vote.    Carmen Trutanich leads Jack Weiss 51-48 with about 10% of the vote in.  And Paul Koretz leads 53-47 with 10% in.  These last two will probably go all night.

…Debra Bowen tweets that these are all vote-by-mail ballots reporting right now.  If, as expected, they are 40-50% of the final total, everyone can go to bed.  Except for Jack Weiss, Carmen Trutanich, Paul Koretz and David Vahedi.

UPDATE by Brian: As pointed out in the comments, with 100% reporting, it looks like the May 19 election will feature a runoff between Dem. Asm. Curren Price, Republican Nachum Shifren, and P&F Cindy Varela Henderson.  Price is the prohibitive favorite, but the failure to attain 50% delays the special election merry-go-round for another few weeks.

As of 10:30pm, the results at the Secretary of State’s site only have 15% of the vote in.  Basically, Asm. Curren Price is looking like he’ll win (although Mike Davis is only behind by about 1,000 votes right now), but not by enough to avoid a runoff.  So we will have to wait until May 19 to have a full complement of State Senators, at which point we’ll have one less Assemblymember and will need a special election for Price’s seat.  And the whole thing never ends.

Anyway, post results here.

as of 10:30pm:

Candidate                                     Votes    Percent

Mike Davis (Dem)                        2,968   23.44%

Saundra Davis (Dem)                  840         6.63%

Cindy Varela Henderson (P&F)  244       1.93%

Curren D. Price, Jr. (Dem)       3,996   31.56%

Nachum Shifren (Rep)                1,910   15.08%

Robert Cole (Dem)               1,883   14.87%

Mervin Leon Evans (Dem)       76           0.60%

Jonathan Friedman (Dem)       745         5.88%

News from around the state:

• Polls close in the SD-26 election between Asms. Curren Price and Mike Davis shortly. We’ll update with election results upon their release.

• CalPERS/STRS are attempting to be the lead plaintiffs against Bank of America in the Merril Lynch bonus scandal.  Both organizations have been outspoken advocates for sound corporate governance.

• Imagine this, a bipartisan bill in Sacramento!  With Dave Jones, Nathan Fletcher and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner all aboard!  And the cause is noble!  Basically, this bill would allow workers at small businesses with under 20 employees to be eligible for federal subsidies to COBRA in the same way that workers in firms with more than 20 employees are eligible under the economic recovery plan.  The bill is AB23, and should pass out of the Assembly Health Committee today.

• An interesting story about the relationship between Speaker Pelosi and President Obama, and how the Speaker views her role as a leader. Much of it is not all that insightful, but it does take a look at how Pelosi is trying to use the House as a counterpoint to the more conservative Senate, and to Obama’s compromising instincts.

• OC Progressive takes a look at cuts to OCTA, the county’s bus service. Unfortunately, at a time when we should be investing heavily in public transportation, services are being slashed throughout the state.

• For those interested, Adriel Hampton, candidate for CA-10, has posted a short video about himself.

• Sen. Tony Strickland (Yacht Party-Thousand Oaks) may be able to ball, but that picture of him in uniform for the minor league Los Angeles Lightning, for whom he will actually play May 2 for a one-game special in his district, should get him disqualified from a political career.  Memo to politicians – lay off the tank tops.

Assemblymember Curren Price looks to be the front runner in SD-26, nabbing the SEIU State Council endorsement last week, and the endorsement of the former holder of the seat, Mark Ridley-Thomas. Today he also nabbed the Cal Labor Fed’s endorsement.

“Curren Price has been a strong voice for working families in the legislature,” said California Labor Fed honcho Art Pulaski. “In these tough economic times we need leaders like Price in the Senate to protect workers and help us get our economy moving.”

His main competitor is Asm. Mike Davis, but for the time being, Price looks to have all of the major chips right now.  I’ve not heard any big tales of grassroots support that would overwhelm the institutional support.  That being said, this election will likely be pretty low turnout, so you never know.

Either way, the carousel will go around again when either of them takes the seat.