CA-31: Becerra To Join Cabinet After All? [UPDATED] Or Not

I’m not really much for forcible identity politics, but some Latino leaders are making noises that a Hispanic ought to replace Bill Richardson (who withdrew his nomination) as the Secretary of Commerce, making the argument that the Latino population must maintain its representation in the Administration.  I’d prefer the best man or woman for the job, but this is a case where there already is a Hispanic who Obama considered for a separate cabinet appointment who may be able to be persuaded into accepting this one.  That would be Xavier Becerra.

An Obama transition team source said a veteran California congressman, Xavier Becerra, has emerged as the leading congressional candidate to replace Richardson, the Hispanic governor of New Mexico, as President-elect Barack Obama’s choice for a job that will include overseeing the 2010 U.S. Census.

“Even though he turned down the trade representative slot, Becerra is not only Hispanic, but he has the skill, talent and experience to do the Commerce job,” said the source, who was not authorized to speak for the president-elect.

“Xavier’s name has gone to the top of the list of potential replacements in part because he is a member of the House leadership, he is well liked, he has very good credentials, and, of course, he was an early Obama backer,” the source said.

It’s all speculative at the moment, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this happened.  Becerra wanted a bigger role in the Administration than trade representative, and certainly the Commerce Department would give him a better opportunity to shape White House policy.

Obviously this would create another special election in an adjoining district to incoming Labor Secretary Hilda Solis’ CA-32.  Los Angeles County from Hollywood to points east would be ground zero for political wrangling this spring.

UPDATE: Becerra’s spokeswoman says he’s not interested.

Xavier Becerra is not considering an appointment to become Secretary of Commerce and will remain in the House, his spokeswoman told Politico.

“The Congressman has already expressed that he is staying in Congress and looks forward to working with the Obama Administration from his position as House Democratic Vice Chair,” said Fabiola Rodriguez.

Prop 8 Voting Patterns Analyzed

And, if you’ve been paying attention, they’ll seem quite familiar.  If you have been sucked in by the media’s “pit the blacks against the gays” strategy, well, I guess you’re in for a surprise.  In a study by two New York political science professors, race ends up way down the list on correlation with yes votes.  The report is highlighted by equalitygiving.org and the full PDF is here. Here they are in order, according to Profs. Egan and Sherrill, summarized at equalitygiving:

   *  The two most important characteristics determining the vote were party identification and ideology.  Those self describing as Democrats or Liberals, overwhelmingly opposed Prop 8. Those self describing as Republicans or Conservatives, overwhelmingly supported California Proposition 8.

   * The third most important characteristic determining the vote was religiosity. Those attending religious services every week, supported Prop 8 by 70% while those attending once a month opposed it by 52% and those hardly ever attending opposed it by 70%.

   * The fourth most important characteristic determining the vote was age. All the ages groups opposed Prop 8, except for those 65+ who supported it by 67%.      As importantly, when compared to another marriage initiative in California in 2000 (the Knight initiative), all age groups increased their support of same sex marriage equality in 2008—except for those 65 years of age or older.

Race, it turns out, was far from determinative.  The votes of African-Americans and Latinos was described better by using the variable of religiosity.  That is, minorities who attended church regularly were far more likely to vote yes than an unreligious member of the same community.

I think we can definitively put to bed the argument that any one group caused our defeat.  Well, save the group of voters over 65. As those voters get gradually replaced by younger voters, our odds of defeating such an amendment grow. If you are a statistics nerd, I highly recommend the full PDF here.  The analysis is quite, well, mathy.

What Are Tax Brackets?

Dave Johnson,  Speak Out California

In 2009 California is going to have to confront and settle a number of budget issues that we have been putting off for decades. We have been putting off so many necessary decisions — deferring maintenance of our infrastructure, pushing pain into the future by borrowing, setting aside the needs of our people by cutting school, police, fire and other budgets, and practicing almost every form of avoidance of reality that we could find.

Well, the karma is coming back on us, all the chickens have come home to roost, we are getting what we gave and we are going to pay for our sins.  (Please leave more cliches in the comments.)

The number one budget issues that has to be confronted is taxation.

So, let’s talk taxes, beginning with the basics.  I have found that many people don’t really understand how taxes work so I want to write a bit about that here.  One reason for the lack of understanding of taxes is that there has been quite a bit of deliberate misinformation.  By confusing people, the very wealthy and corporate interests have been able to trick people into letting them avoid paying their fair share.  Instead we either take on ourselves the bulk of the burden of paying for democracy, or just borrow and put that burden on our children.

One thing that I have found many people do not quite understand is the concept of tax brackets.

Tax brackets

A “progressive” tax is one where the tax rate increases as income increases.  A progressive tax structure consists of brackets.  You pay a certain tax rate on income up to the next bracket.  After that bracket is reached, a higher tax rate applies to income that is earned that is above that amount.  Let’s say that you pay 5% on income below $10,000 and 7% on income above $10,000.  So if you make exactly $10,000 of income the tax is $500.  At $10,100 the tax is still that $500 on the amount below $10,000 and $7 on the additional $100, for a total of $507.  The key point is that only the amount in the new bracket is taxed at the higher rate.

Many people believe that once you reach a higher bracket you pay the higher tax rate on all the income that falls below that bracket amount as well.  I have actually talked to people who think they need to “get their income into a lower bracket” to avoid paying a higher tax rate, because they think that a higher tax rate would apply to all of the income they earned.

Using the example of the earlier paragraph, many people believe that you would pay $707, not $507, on income of $10,100, assuming that the entire $10,100 is taxed at a 7% rate because the total income is above $10,000.  This incorrect belief is one result of anti-tax arguments.  It is also the basis of many tax-avoidance schemes.  

So, to repeat:  If you enter a higher tax bracket, you only pay the higher tax rate on the amount of income you earn that is in the new tax bracket, not on all of your income.

Come join the discussion at Speak Out California

On That Prop 8 Equality Summit Media Access Kerfuffle…

So there has been quite a tempest in a teapot brewing over the reports that the Equality Summit set for January 24th at the Los Angeles Convention Center to discuss how to obtain marriage equality in California will not be completely open to the media.

People on LGBT blogs have been howling that this is just another example of the NO ON PROP 8 folks trying to be “secretive” and keep out the netroots and community-based activists.

All the major LGBT blogs Joe.My.God, Pam’s House Blend, TowleRoad ran with the story which was clearly fueled by longtime lesbian activist Robin Tyler who was unhappy when the vote on whether to not have a strategic planning summit open to the media had gone against her wishes and resigned in protest.

As someone who is on the call and is still on the Planning Committee for the Equality Summit let me tell you the real deal. Only one blog got it right and it isn’t one that you would expect…

Most LGBT bloggers were critical of the Summit organizers, but Queerty dug deeper and got to the facts of the situation. In a “Queerty Exclusive” they actually talked to Anne Marks the Equality Summit organizer and Andrea Shorter one of the Equality Summit Executive Committee co-chairs:

Shorter tell us she is “appreciative of what people like Robin Tyler has done for the community” and she acknowledges that the No on 8 campaign had a reputation for being a “closed door campaign,” but says of Tyler’s decision to resign, “You can’t have it both ways.”

You can’t complain about transparency and openness and reaching out to as many different groups as possible and then circumvent the process that’s working to make those very things happen. We can continue to stay stuck in a pattern that suggest that nobody can trust anybody or we can move forward and certainly learn from the mistakes of the No on 8 campaign, but this is meant to be a serious and honest discussion with community leaders and groups about winning marriage equality. Are we more concerned with how to move forward or are we going to stay stuck?

Shorter says that while no decision regarding press access has been made, the question is not an all-or-nothing proposition, saying:

We want to be transparent, but we don’t want to be stupid about it.

You’re going to have a bunch of equal right activists, some of them neophytes, meeting an talking for the first time and the question is, “Do we want to be operating in a fishbowl? Are we going to have CNN, MSNBC standing there at every plenary and meeting session?”

The point is we all want marriage equality and we have to have honest discussions to do that.

We asked whether gay media outlets with a vested interest in the issue should be allowed to attend, even if only in an off-the-record position (only a question, and not something Queerty agreed to sign on to). Shorter laughed: “Like I said, we haven’t had this discussion yet, but what’s funny is that there’s also the argument that reporter’s journalistic integrity and objectiveness mean that they can’t really be considered part of the community.”

[…]

And since Queerty is not an objective news source, here’s our two cents:

We were as critical of the failed No on 8 campaign as anyone. In fact, if you look at our coverage since last year’s election it’s safe to say Queerty is probably the No on 8 campaign’s biggest critic (it’s a toss-up between us and the L.A. Weekly, really). We stand by those criticisms and will continue to explore why that campaign failed so that the same mistakes are not repeated.

That said, the Equality Summit is an important and useful thing. From all appearances so far, any group wanting to take part is welcome – that’s inclusiveness. As much as we’re advocates for journalistic access, inviting all media to all sessions would turn the summit into a press conference, not a strategy session. Do you really want Sean Hannity attending the Equality Summit? (Or a roving Bill O’Reilly producer ready to ambush?) Of course not, but if don’t want them, you must agree, then, that some decisions regarding press access need to be made – and by all accounts the planning committee of the Equality Summit will do so, but haven’t yet.

Anne Marks tells us that right now, the planning process is just restarting from the holiday break and that there should be an agenda by next Monday. Before branding the planners of the Equality Summit an evil, power-mongering, hermetic cabal, why don’t we give them a chance to act first?

The gay blogger kangaroo court yesterday sentenced the Equality Summit before it’s even had a chance to commit a crime. We know you all want a piece of the Prop. 8 action, but try to get both sides of the story before rushing to judgment.

And there, ya go, folks! That’s journalism.

“Can’t we all just get along?”

DiFi’s Problem With Panetta

It’s more than a little surprising to me that the choice for CIA Director of Leon Panetta, who I considered a card-carrying Villager if there ever was one, is ruffling such feathers inside official Washington, particularly official Democratic Washington.  At first blush this looked like whining about not being informed, but it seems like there’s more there.  Here’s the relevant section from the LA Times:

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who this week begins her tenure as the first female chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said today that she was not consulted on the choice and indicated she might oppose it.

“I was not informed about the selection of Leon Panetta to be the CIA director,” Feinstein said. “My position has consistently been that I believe the agency is best served by having an intelligence professional in charge at this time.” […]

A senior aide to Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV (D-W.Va.), outgoing chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said that the senator “would have concerns” about a Panetta nomination.

Rockefeller “thinks very highly of Panetta,” the aide said. “But he’s puzzled by the selection. He has concerns because he has always believed that the director of CIA needs to be someone with significant operational intelligence experience, and someone outside the political realm.”

Most of the intelligence professionals at the top over the past eight years had plenty of “experience” and that didn’t work out too well.  The one who came from the political arena, Porter Goss (who was a former spy), wasn’t so objectionable to Dianne Feinstein – I mean she voted to confirm him, after all.  Of course, he was a Republican, which makes everything OK.  

But I don’t think this is about Panetta’s lack of experience; it’s his wealth of it, which presages a change in culture inside  the agency.

Panetta’s selection suggests that Obama intends to shake up the agency, which has had little public accounting of its role in detaining top terror suspects and transferring others to regimes known to use torture, a procedure known as extraordinary rendition.

The CIA, which denies subjecting detainees to torture, is part of a 16-agency intelligence community whose annual budget now exceeds $47.5 billion. The agency keeps its own budget and number of employees secret. Its successes, too, are mostly kept secret while some of its failures reach front pages.

Panetta has suggested that Obama could do much to signal a break with Bush administration policies by signing executive orders during his first 100 days that ban the use of torture in interrogations and close the Guantanamo Bay prison.

“Issuing executive orders on issues such as prohibiting torture or closing Guantanamo Bay would make clear that his administration will do things differently,” Panetta wrote Nov. 9 in a regular column he published in his local newspaper, the Monterey (Calif.) County Herald […]

“He will be an outsider and I think the president wants an outsider’s perspective on the CIA,” said Lee Hamilton, a former Indiana congressman and a former chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence who heads the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. “The intelligence community has lost a lot of confidence with the American people and the Congress. I’m talking about 9/11, the Iraq war.”

It’s that he’s an outsider with enough institutional power to actually make changes, and the moral compass to make those decisions based not on burying the past but rooting it out.  THAT’S what has DiFi and Jello Jay spooked.  In fact, they wanted Michael Hayden’s right-hand man to take over (on the flip…)

NBC News has learned that Senate Democrats — including Dianne Feinstein and Jay Rockefeller, who are the incoming and outgoing Intelligence chairmen — have privately recommended a career CIA officer to head the agency.

Democratic sources indicate that both have recommended deputy CIA Director Steve Kappes, a veteran CIA intelligence officer who is widely credited with getting the Libyans to give up their nuclear program. Kappes also was former Moscow station chief […]

One potential downside for Kappes: Like former counter-terror chief John Brennan, some critics says he had line authority over controversial decisions involving interrogation and detention. Brennan was taken out of contention for the CIA job after criticism on the Web on that issue, even though he says he privately objected to the policies and was not in the chain of command at the time.

Panetta isn’t going to be sneaking through the Middle East collecting human intelligence; he’s going to be managing a large bureaucracy.  But moral lepers like DiFi value “experience” that will lock in the status quo over experience that will reveal the agency’s sins, and by extension her own.  They don’t want to risk any culpability on their part from becoming public, so they’d rather “keep it in the family.”  By the way, the resultant fight suggests that “liberal bloggers” were only the excuse for the Obama transition to disqualify John Brennan; in fact, they wanted a strong manager with a spine who would follow the rules.  That is distasteful to those Senate Dems who don’t want the family secrets spilling out.

And lest this become abstract, read today’s New York Times:

When Muhammad Saad Iqbal arrived home here in August after more than six years in American custody, including five at the military prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, he had difficulty walking, his left ear was severely infected, and he was dependent on a cocktail of antibiotics and antidepressants.

In November, a Pakistani surgeon operated on his ear, physical therapists were working on lower back problems and a psychiatrist was trying to wean him off the drugs he carried around in a white, plastic shopping bag.

The maladies, said Mr. Iqbal, 31, a professional reader of the Koran, are the result of a gantlet of torture, imprisonment and interrogation for which his Washington lawyer plans to sue the United States government […]

Mr. Iqbal was never convicted of any crime, or even charged with one. He was quietly released from Guantánamo with a routine explanation that he was no longer considered an enemy combatant, part of an effort by the Bush administration to reduce the prison’s population.

“I feel ashamed what the Americans did to me in this period,” Mr. Iqbal said, speaking for the first time at length about his ordeal during several hours of interviews with The New York Times, including one from his hospital bed in Lahore.

Mr. Iqbal was arrested early in 2002 in Jakarta, Indonesia, after boasting to members of an Islamic group that he knew how to make a shoe bomb, according to two senior American officials who were in Jakarta at the time.

Mr. Iqbal now denies ever having made the statement, but two days after his arrest, he said, the Central Intelligence Agency transferred him to Egypt. He was later shifted to the American prison at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan, and ultimately to Guantánamo Bay.

Much of Mr. Iqbal’s account could not be independently corroborated. Two senior American officials confirmed that Mr. Iqbal had been “rendered” from Indonesia, but could not comment on, or confirm details of, how he was treated in custody. The Pentagon and C.I.A. deny using torture, and American diplomatic, military and intelligence officials agreed to talk about the case only on the condition of anonymity because the files are classified.

There are hundreds of human beings like this – at least the ones who are alive – who really don’t care if Dianne Feinstein or Jay Rockefeller will be “embarrassed”.  They were flown around the world, interrogated and tortured, and in the process, America not only created thousands of new terrorists while receiving no actionable intelligence, but lost its soul.  The road to restoration has nothing to do with the delicate sensibilities of Senate Democrats.

Monday Open Thread

•  Meg Whitman looks increasingly like a candidate for the governor’s gig.  She quit a couple boards of directors over the last few weeks. Great, just what we need, another political neophyte who thinks they can buy their way into the job.  That will never work…oh wait. The AP has it that she is going to announce soon.

Great, another Pro-Prop 8 Republican claiming to be moderate.  I have to think that some conservative will come in there and clean the clock of the “moderates” Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner, and the true moderate Tom Campbell. As I see it, there is a real opportunity for a McClintock-esque grassroots conservative to get in the race and grab the nomination, with the moderate vote split.

•  It really was rather unfortunate that Most Holy Redeemer Catholic Church was vandalized over the weekend.  While the Catholic Church, and specifically the Arch Diocese of San Francisco did actively support Prop 8, I can assure you that the parishioners of Most Holy Redeemer were not the leaders or even supporters at all.  MHR is generally pretty darn gay friendly, and swastikas are never appropriate.  

• Also on the Prop 8 front, much has been said about Attorney General Jerry Brown and the brief emerging from his office on Proposition 8.  The Bee’s Peter Hecht takes a look at some of those responses today. If one were a cynic, you’d think about the position in relation to the 2010 primary, especially when you look at it through the prism of his decision-making process on Prop 5. The position of the AG’s brief rejecting the revision theory is also quite troublesome.

• This could be an idea for the budget – call in an ethicist to set priorities on spending.  One look at the Yacht Party’s plan and any ethicist worth a damn might have them all committed as psychopaths.

• California’s road to economic recovery is paved with solar panels.  It’s about 30 years too late, but we’re finally starting to see some real results on the move toward one million solar roofs, and more.  California now has more than half of the US solar capacity (sadly, the country ranks fourth in the world, behind Germany, Spain and Japan).

•  Interested in an inauguration night party? Well, the Amador County Dems have what sounds like a fun one. Check the flip for more details.

The Amador County Democratic Central Committee

Joyously invites our great Volunteers and Supporters

To a Thank You and Victory Party on Inaugural Night

Tuesday, January 20th from 7 to 9 p.m.

At the Jackson Elks Club Lodge, 12500 Kennedy Flat Road

Hors d’oeuvres and non-alcoholic beverages will be provided. The Elks Club bar will be open.

We hope you will be able to join us,

On this historic evening.

RSVP to Kathy Trenam

ktrenam A T earthlink D O T net

by Wednesday, January 14th