Monthly Archives: February 2012

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Data Nerds Rejoice! CA Precinct Analysis Released

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California precinct index offers detailed political information.

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by Brian Leubitz

Geeks around California rejoice! David Latterman, who now works at USF’s McCarthy Center has been known around San Francisco for his progressive precinct index. Today he released his 2011 version of the California version. As you can see from the image to the right, much of the data is as you would expect it. There is a dark blue core around the coast, and red elsewhere. what that really translates to is that a fairly strong majority, as population, of somewhat progressive voters. Much of that red area exists in large, unpopulated districts. If you look closely, you will see a growing blue section in the central valley of progressive voters.

You can get the full details of Latterman’s California 2011 Politcal Precinct Index at this PDF release.

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Bill Maher calls Mitt Romney a rapper!

Mitt Romney is someone who is out of touch with the rest of America. Is it because he’s wealthy that we dislike him? No, not at all but his rather greedy persona and money flaunting habits seems to shed light on the fact that he’s not for the people nor for the well being of this country. Unlike legendary entrepreneurs throughout history such as Walt Disney and Steve Jobs, Romney seems to be missing that humble side that Americans seem to connect to and love. Bill Maher, in a rather funny sound bite, points out his money flaunting habits and even compares Romney to the in-your-face artists of hip-hop. Take a look.

Central Valley, education

Let Young People’s Voices Be Heard Too

By Miriam Hernandez, Student Leader with Californians for Justice in Fresno and Senior at Roosevelt High School.

As I wake each morning, I tell myself, “Thank you God for another day, may I encounter smiles on people’s faces.” I walk to school and I run into a lot of students. Sadly, I can tell some are hurting inside. I wonder about their story and if they receive help at school rather than just being taught.

Lately, there have been many articles in the news media about school dropout and truancy rates. Schools have improved, but some issues remain. Programs are also being implemented to solve the problems, but what about the students’ opinion? After all, we know what it’s like in school, what is and isn’t working. Rather than just hearing us out, why can’t actions include our opinions?

I have been in the shoes of these students, wondering and asking myself questions daily. In elementary school, I wondered why students were given different resources and why some didn’t receive any at all. I also wondered why some students would constantly get in trouble and suspended continuously, and why there wasn’t much done to help them stay in school and improve.

Years passed as I transitioned to middle school. The issues and disagreements became physical, harmful fights. The faces of students I once knew in elementary school drifted away. I had no clue who my old classmates had become. I wondered if they were OK, if they attended school and if they were accomplishing their goals.

Now, as a senior in high school, I have seen a great number of students drop out for various reasons. Watching this happen not only affected me, but it made my community unhealthy.

I see so much talent in these students. Some students are unable to know their talents in school because they feel there is no point in going to class if they are just going to be sent out of the classroom. Of course, it may be reasonable to send out a student for acting up, but it is also reasonable to find out why the student is acting up in the first place.

Since freshman year, I have been involved with groups like Californians For Justice, a racial justice student-led organization working for better schools and lower dropout rates. I have also become involved in Building Healthy Communities, a campaign of the California Endowment whose goal is to support the development of communities where kids and youth are healthy, safe and ready to learn.

In BHC, I participate in Project S.U.C.C.E.S.S. (Students United to Create a Climate of Engagement, Support and Safety) where our focus is to ensure that schools provide a supportive environment and reach out to help students stay on target to graduate. Whether it is listening to the issues happening at home, hearing the reasons that lead students to fight or helping students think of better ways to solve conflicts, we should see more students staying in school, not more students suspended or expelled. We need to keep students in school and see them move on to graduation instead of watching them fail.

These programs have helped me build the skills I didn’t know I had inside. Most of all, they help my voice grow and be heard.

The youth voice is worth listening to. We are the most affected by these issues, and we must build a voice with several ideas to find solutions.

We might be portrayed as just “kids,” but they always leave out the fact that we are “just kids with answers.” Why else would we give up our Friday nights, our weekends and even our holidays to discuss how we can help improve education and keep our peers in school? Our voices must be heard, too.  

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Mitt Romney Announces “I’m not concerned about the very poor”

Mitt Romney is to be commended for his honesty. This ranks right up there with “I like being able to fire people,” and “corporations are people, my friend.” Romney has shown that while he may have the golden touch for all of his personal investment choices, he has a tin ear for politics. Romney doesn’t even bother trying to mask his contempt for non-rich Americans. Once again, Mitt Romney shows he has the same compassion level for the non-rich that the Mel Brooks’ character King Louis did when he was using live peasants for skeet shooting practice.

Here is a new ad that we are in the process of buying national cable TV news for now.

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The Money Game

Republicans once again nearly broke

by Brian Leubitz

With the news that Republican registration is falling again, perhaps it is of very little surprise that they also have very little money, especially when compared to the Democrats.  But, that is the case.

One of the standouts in terms of limited dollars: the California Republican Party. The state GOP bet big on getting the referendum against the new Senate redistricting maps qualified for the November ballot (and the signatures are still being counted); overall, the party’s report shows it raised $4.2 million in 2011. But the state GOP only had $439,000 in cash left on Dec. 31, and the fate of the redistricting effort still seems somewhat in doubt.

Meantime, the redistricting referendum campaign reported (PDF) having only $620.31 in the bank on the final day of 2011 and has reported no 2012 contributions. The campaign owes $214,000 in unpaid bills.

Compare that to California Democrats, who reported raising $11 million in 2011 and still sitting on a rather impressive $9.3 million in cash as of Dec. 31. That suggests Dems are well positioned for legislative and even ballot measure efforts in 2012, while Republicans will need a major infusion of cash… and in a hurry. (CapNotes)

As John Myers points out, the Senate district map referendum, while largely funded by Mercury Insurance CEO George Joseph, has still left them with emptier campaign coffers than they had before.  While the Dems haven’t spent nearly as much money, expect the Party to spend big time on the November ballot, with revenue and paycheck deception on the ballot.

At the same time, news from the June initiative front is also quite anemic.  While the anti-tobacco groups will be kicking off their campaign to raise cigarette taxes by a $1/pack to pay for cancer research today at the State Capitol, they’ll be doing it without a lot of cash.  Same for the LA Labor Fed’s term limits reform measure that made it on the ballot last year.  

June’s election will be fierce in a few competitive legislative and Congressional seats, but don’t expect any big statewide push.

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Republican Registration Continues to Crater

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GOP is in danger of falling below 30%

by Brian Leubitz


























Party Feb 1999 January 2008 January 2012
Democratic 46.72% 42.71% 43.63%
Republican 35.27% 33.45% 30.36%
NPP 12.89% 19.38% 21.24%
For the last decade, the big winner in party registration has been no party at all. Decline to state, now known as no party preference, has boomed from just under 13% in 1999 to 21.24% in the latest numbers released by the Sec. of State’s office today.  While Democratic numbers have fluctuated in the lower 40s, Republican numbers continue to creep downwards.  If the trend continues, the GOP may fall below 30% in the very near future.

It is no surprise that the GOP is rapidly losing adherents, what with the far right extreme becoming dominant within the Party of Reagan (née Lincoln). But with district maps that require Republicans to compete for the middle, the question is whether they really can do that.  These numbers certainly don’t bode well for that.

Budget, Jerry Brown

Cash Crunch?

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Controller John Chiang sounds the alarm bells

by Brian Leubitz

While tax season is gearing up, the state government is now running low on cash reserves. Controller John Chiang announced today that without payment delays and other tactics, the state will run out of cash in March:

California will run out of cash by early March if the state does not take swift action to find $3.3 billion through payment delays and borrowing, according to a letter state Controller John Chiang sent to state lawmakers today.

The announcement is surprising since lawmakers previously believed the state had enough cash to last through the fiscal year that ends in June.

But Chiang said additional cash management solutions are needed because state tax revenues are $2.6 billion less than what Gov. Jerry Brown and state lawmakers assumed in their optimistic budget last year. Meanwhile, Chiang said, the state is spending $2.6 billion more than state leaders planned on. (SacBee)

To some extent this happens every year. Last year we had to borrow $10B to tide us over until tax revenues came in.  And heck, Chiang thinks this year will only be $5.4billion. The world is getting better, hooray.

Unfortunately, with the continuing high demands on state services, this is really to be expected. And, Chiang, as he has always done, will have to find a way to balance the state’s checkbook.  Fun job, isn’t it?