All posts by David Dayen

CA-46: Debbie Cook: “Stimulate What? Buying More Crap From China?”

There was a lot of excitement in the IAM (Int’l Assoc. of Machinists) union hall this morning in Huntington Beach, where DFA’s Jim Dean and a host of local officials testified to the worthiness and strength of Debbie Cook, the Democratic candidate in CA-46, seeking to retire certified nutjob Dana Rohrabacher in Congress.  But the best reaction was for the candidate herself, who gave a straight-shooting, no B.S. speech that made clear the stakes in this election.

“Do-Nothing Dana has been in Congress for 20 years and hasn’t done a thing,” Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach, said to a pancake breakfast of around 120 volunteers who were ready to precinct walk for her.  Referring to a claim from the campaign’s latest ad, that Rohrabacher has sponsored a bill to protect the country from an asteroid, she said, “he needs to worry less about asteroids and more about planet Earth.”

Cook has really matured as a speaker.  She is great on her core issues – energy, the environment, and health care reform – but she’s also endorsed the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq, and really foregrounds smart growth and development issues.  State and local governments are so stressed by this financial crisis that it’s incumbent upon us to send lawmakers to Washington who understand local concerns.  I’ve heard again and again from local lawmakers in that district – and again today from Katrina Foley, running for re-election to City Council in Costa Mesa – that Rohrabacher is openly dismissive of any federal help for local governments, and refuses to work with his counterparts.  At this point that’s downright dangerous, creating choke points that will gut basic services and the smart policies we need – in mass transit, for example – to weather this economic downturn and create a 21st-century infrastructure.

You’ll notice that Foley, the Costa Mesa city councilwoman, is a Democrat.  Gus Ayer, the mayor of Fountain Valley, a Democrat.  Debbie Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach, Democrat.  Orange County is changing, and those who ignore this reality and rest on their laurels, like Dana Rohrabacher, will live to regret it.  “This is the first time he’s had to get off his lazy a$% and campaign,” she said.  And he was slow to do it.  He only spent $38,000 in the third quarter, but once internal Republican polls have shown the race to be a dead heat, he has swamped the district with money.  He’s got 4 positive ads on the air and a bunch of negative mailers attacking Debbie as an “extreme liberal” on various issues.  If it’s liberal to advocate for quality and affordable health care for all, as she has done in earning the endorsement of the California Nurses Association, because to ignore the crisis welcomes a “fiscal nightmare” that risks blowing a hole in the federal budget for good, so be it.  If it’s liberal to recognize that  our current carbon-based economy is unsustainable, and that we must encourage policies and practices that move us off fossil fuels, there you are.  If it’s liberal to understand that smart density with mass transit can improve quality of life, the environment and the economy, well OK then.

The best part of the speech was when Cook talked about all the support she was getting throughout the district, and she mentioned that some people gave her their economic stimulus checks from the government.  “To stimulate what?  Buying more crap from China?”  While a new stimulus is needed, rather than handing out money as a band-aid we need to direct that spending into something useful, something that will create jobs and get the economy moving again.  We need to make things again in America.

After the speeches, the volunteers were sent out to walk precincts.  CA-46 is a very long and narrow district that hugs the coast from Long Beach and the Palos Verdes Peninsula in L.A. County down to Costa Mesa in Orange County.  Putting those blue areas up north into the district to neutralize their power is a big mistake in this wave election.  As the Cook campaign finds new voters everywhere, turning out folks in Long Beach is part of the strategy.  So I walked part of a precinct in Long Beach and got a very good response.  Rohrabacher simply does not have a good reputation among anyone but the wingnuts, and his record on Social Security (pro-privatization), the military (voted against improving veteran’s health care) and the environment (he’s a global warming denier) is quite extreme.  (There’s also the dressing up in drag to solve the RFK murder and about a thousand other lunatic stories)  I talked to people today who said “We’re Republicans, but we don’t like Dana.”  Very few people turned me away.

Cook’s volunteer base is the edge in this election.  But she also needs some financial help.  The campaign estimates that they need $75,000 to meet their budget and get the last few targeted mailers into the field.  Debbie is a Blue America candidate and a Better Democrat.  You can donate to her on ActBlue.  Please do – we have a real chance here.  I’m hoping to get Debbie on Calitics Radio next week.

And if you’re in the district, consider volunteering by visiting their website.

MTA Cutbacks At Precisely The Wrong Moment

Measure R on the Los Angeles ballot would impose a 1/2 cent sales tax on county residents to pay for increased transit lines and services.  This couldn’t come at a more crucial time, as the MTA is poised to become a casualty of the financial crisis:

The next potential victims of the nation’s credit crunch: nearly 1.5 million people who ride buses and trains each weekday in Los Angeles County. Transit officials say riders could soon be facing serious service cuts.

That’s because the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority might have to quickly come up with hundreds of millions of dollars to pay investors under terms of deals it made involving American International Group, the troubled financial and insurance giant.

“I’ve lost a lot of sleep over this,” said Terry Matsumoto, the chief financial service officer and treasurer for the MTA. He said it was “absolutely” certain the agency would have to cut service if the deals sour.

The state is already cutting transit funding in the budget, and sales tax revenues, which already partially fund the MTA, are seizing up, as the economy slows and job loss increases (fortunately unemployment flattened out in September, albeit at 7.7%).

This is not the time for cutbacks in service at the MTA.  Ridership is at record highs, as people both avoid still-high gas prices (historically speaking) and more attention is paid individually to greenhouse gas emissions.  The Air Resources Board just released their final draft for compliance with AB32, and I can’t see how they could possibly reach their goals for greenhouse gas emission cuts without an increase in transit.  That includes passing high-speed rail, of course, but obviously the existing transit structures, can’t be pulled back at this important time.

Speaker Bass has been calling for the Governor to prioritize a federal stimulus package and has also been making noises about a state-based stimulus as well.  That has to include protections for transit concerns like the MTA, and increased funding flowing to them as well.  It’s a job creation engine, an economic sustainability engine, and an engine to a better environment.

We can all do our part in Los Angeles County by passing Measure R as well.

Friday Open Thread

Some news for your weekend:

• A KPIX poll shows Jerry McNerney cruising in CA-11, up 52-41 over Dean Andal.  What a golden boy.  The D-Trip needs to bug out of this race and put the resources where they’re needed, like CA-03, CA-46, CA-50 and CA-26.

• Alyson Huber received the endorsement of the Sacramento Bee in her AD-10 race.  In other newspaper endorsements, the LA Times went with some guy named Barack Obama for President.  This is their first endorsement in a general election in 30 years.

• The OC toll road agency, which has been pushing the San Onofre State Beach road for years because it would provide such an economic boost, now wants a billion dollar federal bailout because commuters are using their roads less.  Roads are costly and no longer profitable.  Transit, yes; more roads, no.

• Here’s an interesting read from Amanda Marcotte on Prop. 4 and the new rhetoric taken up by the anti-choice forces.

• A reminder: Jim Dean will be in Southern California Sunday appearing with the campaigns of Debbie Cook (CA-46) and Bill Hedrick (CA-44).  

8:30 AM: Breakfast fundraiser for Debbie Cook for Congress, $25. At the International Association of Machinists Union Hall, 5402 Bolsa Avenue, Huntington Beach, California 92649.

10 AM: Precinct walking and rally also at the International Association of Machinists Union Hall.  For more info, call the Cook campaign at 714-842-6358.

6 PM: Fundraiser for Bill Hedrick with Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, $75.  At the Historic El Adobe de Capistrano Restaurant, 31891 Camino Capistrano, San Juan Capistrano, CA 92675. Please RSVP to Karen Hinks at 714-848-9395 or khinks-at-verizon-dot-net.

UPDATE by Brian: one more for you. Lane Hudson has an open letter to DiFi on HuffPo challenging her to campaign against Prop 8 in the context of the upcoming Harvey Milk movie. Check it out.

CA-50: Yet ANOTHER Deadlocked Congressional Race – Third of the Week

Adding to Bill Durston in CA-03 and Debbie Cook in CA-46, now Nick Leibham has some poll numbers showing a virtual tie:

You can now add Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-CA 50) to the new heap of GOP incumbents who should be suddenly very worried. A new poll, conducted for atty/ex-San Diego City prosecutor Nick Leibham’s (D) camp, shows him trailing Bilbray by a miniscule 44-42% margin.

This may feel like deja vu for GOPers. In the ’06 special election to fill imprisoned-Rep. Duke Cunningham’s (R) term, Bilbray needed $4.5M from the NRCC to skate by a relatively lackluster Dem. What’s worrisome for Bilbray is that the cash-starved NRCC can’t afford to put anywhere near that amount in his CD to save it this year. And the DCCC has enough cash, if it chooses to enter the contest, to make a difference. The NRCC simply can’t afford to overwhelm Dem efforts here like they did in ’06.

This is particularly acute in CA-50.  Leibham beat Bilbray in fundraising in the third quarter, and they are almost even in cash on hand.  Which means that, barring a life raft from the national party, Bilbray is largely on his own.  And he doesn’t have much to run on.  Here he is whining about that powerful ad from Leibham supporter Joe Hoar, a retired Marine General, which ripped Bilbray for voting against the new GI Bill:

Bilbray said he was one of the GI Bill’s original co-sponsors, but voted against it after congressional Democrats loaded it up with extraneous goodies, including a “massive tax increase” and a foreign aid package for Africa and Mexico.

“That’s the kind of cynical tactics we said ‘no’ to,” the Carlsbad Republican said. “We forced it to come back as a clean bill and we were able to pass it and it was signed into law in June.”

Actually, it wasn’t a clean bill at all, it was folded into an Iraq appropriation.  And he objected to it initially because it was funded by a tax on millionaires.

Liebham supporters have put up an attack website called Wrong Way Bilbray highlighting his votes.  Now that the campaign has settled into attacking Bilbray on the issues, with the Democratic wind at their backs, they are gaining traction.

And more than CA-50, what we’re seeing is an across the board re-evaluation of Republican incumbents, with multiple GOPers in trouble.

CA-46: Another Tie Race

The Capitol Weekly reports, in an article about dimming GOP prospects, that Dana Rohrabacher is in a world of trouble.

The third contest is in the 46th Congressional District in Orange County, where incumbent Republican Dana Rohrabacher faces Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook.

According to GOP sources, internal polling shows the difference between Rohrabacher and Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach, to be within the margin of error, although Rohrabacher has heavily outspent Cook.   Hoffenblum believes Rohrabacher faces “possibly the strongest Democrat to run against him since the current district lines were drawn in 2001.”

I don’t think it’s accurate to say that Rohrabacher has heavily outspent Cook.  He only spent a paltry $38,000 in the third quarter, though that may be ramping up now.  I don’t think the NRCC is going to have a lot of money to help him either, though they’re making noises about it.

The strapped National Republican Congressional Committee, which at the end of August had $14 million in the bank, compared with $54 million for the Democrats, last week took out an $8 million loan to fund races in the final days of the campaigns. With scant resources, the fight for dollars is intense.  

GOP insiders believe some funds may flow to Rohrabacher in the 46th C.D., but that money for any of the others is problematic. Democrats declined to say whether Cook would get last-minute cash from national Democrats.

Calitics Match candidate Debbie Cook is a better Democrat.  She supports the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq, quality health care for every American, and a post-carbon economy with green energy pushing out the dirty fuels of the past.  She would be an amazing legislator.  This can be done.  She needs your support.  Donate here.  I will be down in the district over the weekend to get a report.

And don’t just believe me about all this, check out theCook Political Report.

Here’s yet more evidence that the Dems are poised for huge gains in Congress: The Cook Report has released a new set of updated rankings on 25 House races — and all 25 are shifts in the Dems’ direction.

CA-03 Dan Lungren (R) – Solid Republican to Likely Republican

CA-04 OPEN, Doolittle (R) – Likely Republican to Lean Republican

CA-46 Dana Rohrabacher (R) – Solid Republican to Likely Republican

CA-50 Brian Bilbray (R) – Solid Republican to Lean Republican

That’s right, Charlie Brown, Nick Leibham and Bill Durston are looking very impressive.  And Charlie Cook is being very conservative with these picks.  We have the momentum, now we have to go out there and pull it off.

State GOP Bugging Out Of Unwinnable Races

Much as we’ve seen on a national level, the California Republican Party is leaving its candidates on the side of the road and playing pure defense this cycle:

Democratic and Republican sources have informed CMR that the GOP has pulled the plug on future ads for Assemblymember Greg Aghazarian’s bid to replace termed out Democratic Senator Mike Machado in California’s 5th Senate District. Aghazarian’s Democratic opponent, Assemblymember Lois Wolk, is up around 20 points in internal polling, so Republicans have decided to cut their losses.

This means that there will be no more than 15 Republican Senators (and probably less) and no more than 32 Republican Assemblymembers (and probably a lot less).  They will not pick up a single seat at the state level.

Unless you think they can still win in AD-30, where an intra-party feud has left drama queen Yacht Dog Democrat Nicole Parra to endorse the Republican in the race between Danny Gilmore and Democrat Fran Florez.  Florez’ response ad to Parra’s endorsement is hilarious, check it out at the link.

The truth is that while AD-30 is competitive, it’s not a likely pick-up.  And the CRP had better get in the habit of cutting losses; a couple assembly seats are lost causes for them, too.

Campaign Update: Q3 Money Race Tells The Story

(Updated with new information at the bottom… – promoted by David Dayen)

The FEC reports are starting to come in for our candidates.  I’ll update them here, but the preliminary numbers are very strong.

CA-50: Wow.  Nick Leibham raised $413,000 in the third quarter, his best quarter of the cycle by a factor of four.  With $334,000 cash on hand, he’s going to be able to get his message out in the final weeks.  As much as anything, this is why Leibham is Red To Blue.  No word on Brian Bilbray’s take yet.  Leibham’s latest ad uses a local war hero to hammer Bilbray for his vote against the new GI Bill, and it’s very powerful, a great improvement over the attention-getting stunts from earlier in the year.  I’m starting to feel good about this race.

CA-45: Julie Bornstein raised around $102,000 in Q3, while Mary Bono Mack raised $245,000.  The cash on hand situation shows Bono Mack with $462,548 in the bank compared to Bornstein’s $179,308.  That’s not terrible, especially if the DCCC steps in with some outside help – they just added Bornstein to their emerging races list (along with Bill Durston in CA-03).  Her latest ad, showing Bono Mack as a rubber-stamping bobblehead, is spot-on (“Do you think George Bush is right 92% of the time?”)

CA-52: In our toughest winnable race, Mike Lumpkin raised $107,000 and has $125,000 CoH, and Duncan D. Hunter raised $290,000 with $321,000 CoH.  It’ll take a monumental effort to win this one, but I don’t consider it impossible.  Lumpkin just got put on the D-Trip’s Races To Watch page, along with Russ Warner (CA-26).

CA-46: A nice writeup about canvassing for Debbie Cook from friend of the blog Andrew Davey (atdleft).

more money updates when they roll in…

UPDATE: Debbie Cook raised $114,000 and has $181,000 in the bank.  Nothing yet from Dana Rohrabacher.  Will she outraise him three quarters in a row?

UPDATE: More numbers:

CA-04:

Charlie Brown: raised $539K, $456K cash on hand.  GREAT numbers.

Tom McClintock: raised $978K, but spent a ton, and has only $94,000 left, with $110,000 in debts.  He is BROKE.  Brown has an infinite lead in CoH.

CA-03:

Bill Durston: raised $149K, $145K CoH.

Dan Lungren: raised $173K (wow, Durston almost outraised him), $680K CoH.  Dr. Bill is going to need some help.

CA-26:

Russ Warner: raised $289K, which is great, but he’s spent a lot early.  He has $119K CoH.

David Dreier: raised $255K.  Wow, Warner outraised Dreier.  He still has $1.7 million in the bank, and he doesn’t seem to be using the money.  He only spent $345K in Q3.  I don’t know if it’s for leadership purposes or what, but he has a hell of a war chest that he’s not using.

CA-11:

Jerry McNerney: raised $601K, $1.02 million CoH.

Dean Andal: raised $345K, with $850K CoH.  Some prize recruit.

CA-50:

Brian Bilbray: This was the number I was waiting for.  He raised $262K and has $382K CoH.  OK, Nick Leibham didn’t just beat Bilbray in Q2, he destroyed him.  And the cash on hand is virtually even.  Wow.

CA-46:

Dana Rohrabacher: Drum roll… raised $148K.  OK, he beat Debbie Cook for once.  The CoH is $497K, but much like Dreier, he’s spent next to nothing.  $35K in the quarter.

Overall, these are good numbers.  Lots of our candidates have the resources they need.  Keep up the pressure.

Ladies And Gentlemen, Your California Republican Party

They’re not just economic royalists and Yacht Tax Loophole lovers anymore, they have graduated to out and out eliminationist status:

Sacramento County Republican leaders Tuesday took down offensive material on their official party Web site that sought to link Sen. Barack Obama to Osama bin Laden and encouraged people to “Waterboard Barack Obama” – material that offended even state GOP leaders.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has pushed the party to try to broaden its appeal, took issue with the site. “In the governor’s view, it’s completely and totally inappropriate,” said Julie Soderlund, a Schwarzenegger spokeswoman […]

Taking credit for the site (sacramentorepublicans.org) and its content was county party chairman Craig MacGlashan – husband of Sacramento County Supervisor Roberta MacGlashan.

The Bee asked MacGlashan about the content after seeking his reaction to hate-filled graffiti that was spray-painted over an Obama display on a fence at Fair Oaks Boulevard and Garfield Avenue.

In recent weeks, MacGlashan, an attorney, joined local Democratic party officials in condemning vandalism to political displays.

The vandalism to the Obama display appeared to have been done overnight Monday. A racial epithet, profanity, “KKK” and the words “white power” were clearly visible from the roadway. Six of the nine fence panels were defaced.

“What you are describing to me is not free speech, it’s vandalism. We don’t condone it,” MacGlashan said.

But he defended his Web site. “I’m aware of the content,” he said. “Some people find it offensive, others do not. I cannot comment on how people interpret things.”

Republicans have been taught for 30 years that the Presidency is their divine right and any Democrat who accedes to the office must be illegitimate.  Compounding this is the fact that this next President is a black man.  The hatred is welling up from everywhere and the resultant anger will make the Clinton Years look like the Era of Good Feeling.

Alternatively, the Sacramento GOP might have gone with “Waterboard Obama” just to follow the lead of their current President’s explicit approval of torture.

The Drive For 2/3: Republicans Falling Off The Cliff

There are two arguments against Prop. 11.  One is that in 60% of the regions of the state, no amount of gerrymandering is going to create a competitive seat (and that’s all this redistricting measure would accomplish – gerrymandering under another name).  I live in Santa Monica.  I have yet to get a legitimate answer about how to incorporate my 70-80% Democratic city into a contiguous region and make it competitive.  You go South and there’s Venice and the South Bay, and by the time you get to a Republican pocket the district is too large to include them.  You go north and there’s Malibu and the Palisades and blue cities up the coast.  You go east and there’s Los Angeles, with liberals everywhere.  You go west and you’re in the ocean.

The other argument is that the other 40% of the state actually has the potential for competition, and the district boundaries are indeed not constrictive.  Demography is destiny but it is not static.  People die, people are born, people achieve voting age.  People move into cities, others move out.  This demographic shift has been occurring for a while now, with the eastern counties moving back to the Democrats, and it’s reaching a critical mass in 2008.

Until recently I considered the drive for a 2/3 majority in the Assembly and the Senate to be a two-year project, culminating with a new Democratic governor in 2010.  That is still true in the Senate, thanks to Don Perata’s bungling of races in SD-12 and SD-15.  Honestly, he should be indicted for his failed leadership, forget the corruption.  But in the Assembly, we absolutely have the chance to get a 2/3 majority, and everyone is starting to recognize that.

SACRAMENTO – The sliding economy and other factors are giving a lift to Democrats in key legislative races that are coming down to the wire, according to consultants working with those races.

In polls that ask whether likely voters would vote for a generic Democrat or Republican in five state Assembly districts with open seats, Democrats get the nod in all five.

What’s more, in two seats held by Republicans – Assembly Districts 38 and 63 – a generic Democrat vs. Republican race is a dead heat, according to the consultants, who hosted a background briefing for reporters Tuesday.

That would be seven races, and six seats are needed for 2/3.

This has been increasingly clear over the past several months.  Manuel Perez has been pulling away in his race in AD-80 against Gary Jeandron with his transformative message of social and economic justice.  Marty Block has been outspending his opponent John McCann in AD-78 by over 8:1 in TV advertising, although McCann is benefiting from IEs, including, bizarrely enough, the California Dental Association.  Between those two plurality-Democratic seats, and the competitive race in AD-15 with Joan Buchanan, 3 seats looked like a good haul.

At this point, Republicans ought to pull out of those 3 seats altogether and put up a firewall.  Because Alyson Huber is looking very strong in AD-10.  And the unions are throwing down for John Eisenhut in AD-26.  And there are wild-card seats that are starting to look incredibly attractive.

The Antelope Valley, the vast open land between Los Angeles and San Bernadino counties typically isn’t very hospitable territory for Democrats for the legislature. It’s the home of the hard-right couple of George and Sharon Runners, who, between them, have occupied the 36th district Assembly seat for more than a decade. No Democrat has held the seat since 1974.

This year, things might be a little different. Democrats have nearly evened the registration gap, down to just a two percent GOP advantage compared to eight points just two years ago.

Enter Linda Jones, a Westside Union School District trustee and a Vice president of the Antelope Valley School Boards Association, who is making a hard run for the seat. She is taking on Palmdale City Council member Steve Knight, a former LA police officer.

Jones is no sacrificial lamb. She’s been running full throttle for months, backed by labor, educators, and African-American groups. Knight, a former LA police officer, is a cookie-cutter Republican running on illegal immigration, a no tax pledge, and a strong opponent of gun control.

We can win that race.  Eric Bauman tipped me off to it three months ago.

AD-37, with Ferial Masry running against Audra Strickland, is winnable too, especially if she gets a draft off of Hannah-Beth Jackson’s overlapping State Senate race.  And AD-63 is even on a generic ballot, according to Democratic consultants.  And AD-66 could be a surprise on election night, thanks to a strong candidate in Grey Frandsen, a former employee of Russ Feingold.  If you add that up, you’re talking about 9 of the 32 Assembly seats held by Republicans in play, over 30%.  So does that sound like gerrymandering to you?  A progressive wave makes redistricting talk look ridiculous.

Alberto Torrico is giving the soft sell, but this is a great opportunity.  It’s a wave election, and every new voter that Obama turns out in California is a likely candidate to vote the Democratic ticket.  Every new voter registered by a Congressional candidate might vote for a Democrat in the Senate and Assembly.  And it’s not as easy for Republicans to play defense in such an environment.  They have the dismal national economic picture and the state budget crisis to contend with, and they’re out of money.

If there was no excuse yesterday, there’s REALLY no excuse now.  This is the time.  If the laws of the state government are designed to prevent change, if they force us to meet “unreachable” goals, then we reach them.  

Do everything you can to get 2/3.

More from Louis Jacobson.

California’s Moment: We Can Contribute To The Progressive Wave

This Politico story confirms what I’ve been saying for 18 months – California has a serious opportunity at the state and federal level this November.  The idea that the delegations are somehow fixed is a crutch that defeatist operatives use to explain why they lose year after year.  The truth is that, in a time of financial crisis and economic uncertainty, multiple seats are up for grabs regardless of the district-level makeup (and that’s swinging to Democrats as well).  Why else would the NRCC be riding to the rescue of longtime California incumbents?

Darren White and Erik Paulsen were prized Republican recruits, House candidates poised to be the new face of the GOP on Capitol Hill.

But as the two head into the homestretch of their campaigns, GOP operatives say they’ll probably have to win – or lose – on their own. The money national Republicans earmarked for White in New Mexico and for Paulsen in Minnesota will likely go instead to protect GOP incumbents who once looked like locks for reelection.

GOP Reps. John B. Shadegg of Arizona, Lee Terry of Nebraska, Henry Brown Jr. of South Carolina and Dan Lungren of California are all fighting for their political lives, a reversal of fortunes that has caught even the most astute campaign observers by surprise.

By the way, the man who gulped the hardest reading those paragraphs was Dean Andal, who will similarly become roadkill for the NRCC as they run screaming from his train wreck of a campaign.

Those “astute” political observers, by the way, haven’t been paying attention.  Lungren’s CA-03 was clearly the most movable in the state and has been for the entire cycle.  The demographic shifts are identical to CA-11, and the exurbs are exactly the regions that are switching to the Democrats this cycle.  There will be no difference in registration in that seat on Election Day, mark my words.  And other seats are winnable in the state as well.

In California, Republican operatives have noticed some troubling trends.

Two years ago, Lungren – who is completing his seventh term in Congress – beat physician and Vietnam War veteran Bill Durston by 21 points. But the economy has taken its toll, and Lungren’s district has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country. In a newly released Democratic poll, Lungren leads Durston by just 3 percentage points.

Former GOP consultant Allan Hoffenblum said Rep. Dana Rohrabacher and other California Republicans, including Reps. David Dreier and Brian Bilbray, are also at risk.

“The Republican base is not sufficient by itself to elect a Republican in those [California] districts; they still need the independent vote,” Hoffenblum said. “In the past decade, they have been reliably voting Republican for president and for Congress. … There are a lot of angry and scared voters out there. This is not your traditional environment.”

After eight years of George Bush, it was NEVER going to be a traditional environment.  People can’t stand him, and the economic crisis threw the failures of his Presidency into sharp relief.  Being a Republican is TOXIC in this political milieu.  Ken Calvert in CA-44 is running mailers calling himself “An Independent Voice Working for You.”  Ken Calvert!!!  No incumbent with an (R) next to his name is safe, to put it mildly.

So folks, understand that the road to salvation this year does NOT go through the eastern parts of the state and into Nevada to canvass for Barack Obama.  He is going to need a progressive Congress to keep him honest and make sure he exercises bold leadership in dealing with the mess George Bush will leave him.  California needs your ATTENTION.  The progressive wave crested well before hitting the Pacific Ocean in 2006.  We have a half-dozen candidates for Congress, and another half-dozen for the state legislature, that can absolutely win if they have the money and the volunteers to get their message out.  If you want progressive legislation, if you want California’s perpetual budget crisis to end, if you want a government that cares about improving people’s lives, STAY IN CALIFORNIA and find one of these races.

CA-03: Bill Durston

CA-04: Charlie Brown

CA-26: Russ Warner

CA-45: Julie Bornstein

CA-46: Debbie Cook

CA-50: Nick Leibham

CA-52: Mike Lumpkin

SD-19: Hannah-Beth Jackson

AD-10: Alyson Huber

AD-15: Joan Buchanan

AD-26: John Eisenhut

AD-30: Fran Florez

AD-78: Marty Block

AD-80: Manuel Perez

There are more than this, too.  More on that tomorrow.  You have absolutely no excuse.  Go  find the campaign nearest you and lend them a hand.  We can build that wave as high as we want.