All posts by David Dayen

The First Joint Town Hall Of The Presidential Election…

…will be right here in California, at Saddleback Church.

The Rev. Rick Warren has persuaded the candidates to attend a forum at his Saddleback Church, in Lake Forest, Calif., on Aug. 16. In an interview, Mr. Warren said over the weekend that the presidential candidates would appear together for a moment but that he would interview them in succession at his megachurch […]

The forum still falls short of the kind of face-to-face, town-hall-style debates that Mr. McCain, of Arizona, has called for this summer before formal debates scheduled for this fall.

Mr. Warren, the author of the best-selling book “The Purpose-Driven Life,” said he had called each man personally to invite him to his event, which will focus on how they make decisions and on some of Mr. Warren’s main areas of focus, like AIDS, poverty and the environment.

Maybe the fact that McCain missed the vote on the global AIDS bill, like he’s missed every vote since April (and here I thought I was being lax with my Netflix movies!), will come up.  Then again, don’t expect a grilling:

“Since I’m their friend, I’m not going to give them any gotcha questions,” Mr. Warren said, adding that a typical query would be, “What’s the most difficult decision you’ve had to make, and how did you make it?”

So the first town hall of the 2008 election will basically be a Barbara Walters interview.

Get your tickets now!

Obama Blowing Out McCain In CA

But just you wait until St. BBQ starts cranking up those ads and spending an entire month non-stop in the state!  After all, he’s from the West, so people here like him!  He’s a maverick!  He’s-

Highlights of the latest Field Poll of Californians likely to vote in the upcoming November

presidential election reveal the following:

• Democrat Barack Obama now leads Republican John McCain by twenty-four points (54%

to 30%) in California.

• More Democratic Primary voters think Obama should not select Hillary Clinton as his vice-

presidential running mate (48%) as feel he should (40%).  Yet, the decision of whether

Obama does or doesn’t choose Clinton would have little effect on how these voters would

vote in the fall.

• Obama has consolidated the support of California Democrats and non-partisans who voted

for Clinton in California’s February 5th primary election.  The poll shows Obama preferred

over McCain by 80% to 8% among these voters.

• Three times as many Obama voters (51%) as McCain voters (17%) say they are “very

enthusiastic” about supporting their candidate for president in November.

• Obama’s image rating among the overall California electorate (63% favorable vs. 26%

unfavorable) is more positive than McCain’s (48% to 38%).

If you factor out undecided voters, it’s 61-34.  And Obama is leading 64% to 18% among DTS voters.  McCain’s only at 44% in the INLAND areas.

But McCain hasn’t even got rolling yet!  He needs to spend 6 weeks in Fresno just soaking in the local coverage!  I’m demanding that he come to Fresno and Bakersfield to make this a race.  He can do it!  Come on, McCain, who are you going to believe, some poll or the heart of a maverick?

The Drive For 2/3: Manuel Perez Up Big In AD-80

As you know, we need 6 seats in the Assembly to reach a 2/3 majority, and the latest news shows that one of those six is looking good.

I just got the results of an internal poll taken in AD-80 which shows Democrat Manuel Perez with an 11-point lead over Gary Jeandron in the seat currently held by Republican Bonnie Garcia.

AD-80: poll conducted June 10-12, 2008.

Sampling error is +/- 4.9%.

Manuel Perez: 47%

Gary Jeandron: 36%,

18% undecided.

The generic ballot tracks with the poll, as 49% desire a Democrat in the Assembly, to 36% for a Republican.  The registration advantage is in the double digits as well, and the polling memo notes that almost 40% of DTS/Independents and nearly 20% of Republicans are Latino.  Perez is the right fit for this district.  And once bio material is presented, Perez’ lead jumps to 52-39.  Perez’ name ID is higher in the district, too.

Best of all, Perez is a better Democrat, a transformational progressive who will be a real asset to the Assembly and not just a cog in the wheel.

This is not only good news for Perez, but Julie Bornstein as well.  I fully expect Perez to have a strong grassroots operation throughout the district, and where that overlaps with CA-45, that means more Democrats coming out to vote.

You can read the polling memo here.

CA-46, CA-50: Cook, Leibham Outraise Incumbents

Two more Democratic challengers have outraised their incumbent opponents in the second quarter.  That doesn’t happen very often, and it’s not supposed to in the supposedly impenetrably gerrymandered state of California.  But as I’ve been saying, this is a different year.

In CA-50, I’ve been informed that Nick Leibham outraised Brian Bilbray by $245K-$210K in the second quarter.  From the release:

Challenger Nick Leibham raised more money than Congressman Brian Bilbray in this fundraising quarter, according to FEC reports.  Leibham raised $245,504 while Bilbray managed $210,315.  The quarter spanned from April 1, 2008-June 31, 2008.

“Any time that you out raise an incumbent, especially someone like Brian Bilbray who has taken over $180,000 in campaign contributions from Big Oil, it gives the campaign a huge amount of momentum,” said Leibham.  “This is the clearest sign yet that the voters of the 50th are ready for change and I’m honored that so many of them are willing to contribute to our effort.”

Leibham has $266K cash on hand, compared to $528K for Bilbray.

In CA-46, there is similarly good news about Debbie Cook so I’ll let it speak for itself:

Debbie Cook Raises More Than Rohrabacher For The Second Straight Quarter

Democratic Congressional nominee Debbie Cook announced today that she raised more campaign funds than Dana Rohrabacher in the latest reporting period, making it the second quarter in a row she’s out-raised the nine-term incumbent.

Cook, the Mayor of Huntington Beach, out-raised Rohrabacher by more than $10,000. Cook raised $92,900 to Rohrabacher’s $78,712.

Cook has $97K CoH.  70% of her donors are local, meaning she has grassroots support AND that she has limitless potential if she can tap into netroots energy and build a national fundraising base.  She will be appearing at Netroots Nation.

Both of these are, in some respect, a reflection of two lazy incumbents.  Bilbray and particularly Rohrabacher aren’t paying any attention to fundraising.  But there’s not going to be any NRCC money forthcoming if these two get in trouble.  There’s not going to be any expansion of their donor base.  So while both have cash reserves (Bilbray has about $528K CoH, Rohrabacher has $387K), they aren’t overwhelming, and both Leibham and Cook ought to be somewhat competitive financially.

This is nothing like CA-26, where David Dreier has $1.9 million in the bank.  (Russ Warner’s numbers aren’t out yet.)

More numbers:

CA-45: Bornstein raised a little over $96,000, has $121K CoH.  No numbers for Mary Bono yet.

CA-03: Bill Durston raised around $125K, has $188K CoH.  Nice haul for him.  Dan Lungren raised $173K, has $615K CoH.

CA-52: Mike Lumpkin raised $128K but only has $53K CoH.

UPDATE: Russ Warner’s numbers have come through.

CA-26: Warner raised $162K in Q2, $125K CoH (with $73,000 in debts; ouch.); Dreier raised $277K in Q2, $1.9million CoH, no debts.

That’s what I’d call an uphill battle.

CA-04: Brown Raises $357K in Q2; 6:1 Lead in CoH

This is the value of facing an opponent who had to battle through a contested primary.

Charlie Brown just released his second-quarter fundraising statistics, and he had his best quarter to date, raising $357,000 for the quarter, with over $670,000 cash on hand.  Notably, $260,000 of that total was in the last 6 weeks of the quarter, which suggests that the fundraising prowess is increasing as Brown solidifies his donor base and shows his strength as a candidate.  He has over 12,500 individual donors now.

Best of all, 5% of that total, nearly $18,000, will now go to the “Promises Kept Charity Challenge” for veterans care facilities.

McClintock’s fundraising in his 2010 statewide accounts is pretty good (over $200,000), but because of the tough primary, he basically depleted his entire Congressional account.  McClintock is at a 6:1 fundraising disadvantage.  Brown ought to take advantage right now and start defining his opponent.  

Leading The News – 7/15/08

Here are a few links for you.

• It’s two days until the kickoff of Netroots Nation, and among the many luminaries attending will be Gavin Newsom, who is introducing green jobs expert Van Jones at the Sunday morning keynote.  The fact that he’s running for Governor has nothing to do with this, I’m sure… UPDATE: LA City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo will also be on a panel on health care, talking about his many investigations into insurance industry pratices.  That should be an interesting panel for health care activists, as it features nyceve and Ezra Klein, as well as the mother of Nataline Sarkysian, who died while waiting for her insurer to approve an operation.

• The final numbers on the June election were miserable, with a record low (for a regular election) 28.2% turnout.  A ridiculous amount of voters cast ballots by mail – 58.7%, also a record.  VBM is far stronger in Northern California than in the Los Angeles area, and not surprisingly turnout is higher up there as well.  This is really changing how elections ought to be conducted, as we move to a VBM state.  Campaign operatives need to understand this quickly.

• Hey, we had a bank run at IndyMac yesterday.  Fun!  The FDIC insures up to $100,000, so consumers should be fine for the most part, but what you’re going to see is eroding confidence in regional banks as the financial crisis widens.

• Another leader at the LA Times is out, this time publisher David Hiller.  I’m sure Sam Zell and his team can make loads of money on the paper if they just fire everybody and go to robot reporters.

• AB 97 cleared the legislature yesterday, which would ban trans fats at California restaurants and bakeries.  It now goes to the governor.  He did sign a ban on trans fats in school cafeterias last year.

CA-04: Confidence!

California’s Alan Keyes, Tom McClintock, is so determined to make his way into the Guinness Book of World Records for the man with the most losing campaigns that he’s already planning to lose his next two AFTER he loses the Congressional race against Charlie Brown.

In California’s wonderful world of term limits, the future is now for any officeholder looking at the imminent — or not so imminent –end to a political career. And in the state’s version of musical chairs, those politicians already are figuring where to jump when the music stops.

Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock, for example, has taken the Boy Scout motto “Be Prepared” to heart by opening 2010 campaign committees for both lieutenant governor and the state Board of Equalization, even while he’s running for a North State congressional seat in November.

Sure enough, check the Secretary of State’s website and McClintock has already taken out two exploratory committees.  He was actually already planning the BoE run in 2010 (in a district nowhere near CA-04) before winning “American River Canyon Idol” in the Republican primary, but his anticipation to lose the Lieutenant Governor’s race again is new.

The difference between Charlie Brown and Tom McClintock is that one can’t live without being a politician, and the other lives to lead, regardless of his profession.

Obama and the OC

The LA Times reports on a Barack Obama fundraiser in the heart of Nixonland.

On the Balboa Bay Club’s wall of its most famous guests, there are photos of Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Gerald Ford and, of course, the Duke.

There are no Democratic politicians. Securely tucked behind the Orange Curtain, Newport Beach is Republican-held territory.

But Barack Obama may be hoping to change that.

On Sunday, the Democratic Illinois senator brought his campaign to the center of Republican power and did what he has done better than any other presidential candidate — raise money.

Obama would leave with $1.2 million, an organizer estimated. With this infusion, he may exceed the amount GOP candidate John McCain has raised in Orange County.

I think this is laying it on a bit thick.  Even in the most Republican bastions in the country there are 3-4 Democrats for every 10 citizens, and some of them are wealthy.  So rounding up some donors for the guy who’s favored to become the next President of the United States doesn’t seem to me to be that difficult.  What’s notable here is the resistance to McCain.  Orange County was one of the better regions for Mitt Romney in the primary, although McCain won there for the most part.  In addition, there are demographic shifts in Orange County that may not reveal themselves in big donors, but is starting to catch at the grassroots level.  

I don’t think a $1.2 million dollar fundraiser is as indicative of an overall shift in the voting public, but in the fall, we’ll see some better gauges, particularly in CA-46 and the campaign of Debbie Cook, to note whether or not the Orange Curtain is opening a peek.

Feinstein’s Epic FAIL

As bad a week as it’s been for John McCain, it’s been a TERRIBLE week for Dianne Feinstein.  She watched in the Senate Judiciary Committee as Attorney General Michael Mukasey, who she voted to confirm, put on as bad a performance as Alberto Gonzales ever did, covering for the Administration’s criminal actions, from torture to politicization of the Justice Department.  Then, of course, there was the FISA vote, where she bowed to President Bush and voted to participate in a coverup.  Despite this public statement just two weeks before the vote:

I believe the court should not grant immunity without looking into the legality of the companies’ actions. So if there is an amendment that does support this, I would intend to vote for it.

When it came down to voting on precisely that amendment, she weaseled her way out of it.

Amendment Number: S.Amdt. 5059 to H.R. 6304 (Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978)

Statement of Purpose: To limit retroactive immunity for providing assistance to the United States to instances in which a Federal court determines the assistance was provided in connection with an intelligence activity that was constitutional.

Feinstein (D-CA), Nay

And of course, she voted against stripping immunity, for cloture, and for the final bill.

Then there’s this water bond which is more of a true compromise for DiFi, but still includes funds for building dams, and ignores unspent water funds from a 2006 bond issue.  So the idea is to borrow on top of the borrowing.

Courage Campaign is considering whether or not to push censure, but CREDO Action isn’t waiting to voice their displeasure.  From an email:

On July 9th, sixty-nine senators voted to gut the Bill of Rights. They voted to hand President Bush the power to spy on Americans without warrants, and to grant retroactive immunity to the telecoms who allegedly helped him break the law in the past.

No wonder the Associated Press headline following the bill’s passage read, “Senate bows to Bush.”

So why does a president with the lowest approval ratings since the advent of polling have the power to eviscerate the Constitution?

Because Sen. Feinstein gave it to him.

We can’t undo what our senators have done. But we can tell them that we can’t believe they’d rather protect President Bush and his law-breaking cronies than the civil liberties of all Americans.

Click here to tell Sen. Feinstein that you are watching, that you are disappointed, and that you won’t sit idly by while our Congress destroys our Constitution.

After you sign the petition, please be sure to tell a few friends.

It’s really the establishment mindset, afraid of being labeled weak and then bowing to the opposition party’s demands, and not recognizing the irony, that must be stopped.  And there’s no greater symbol of that mindset than DiFi.

UPDATE: (Bob)  With rumors swirling that a Federal Grand Jury is poised to indict Don Perata, this has also the week that Perata has been telling anyone who will listening that the FBI investigation is a political witch hunt. Which, if true, means DiFi’s infamous statement that he, “is not Alberto Gonzalez” in announcing her support for Mukasey’s confirmation looks all the more ridiculous. Perata defenders like Roger Salazar and Jason Kinney and Bob Mulholland can use the above link to cast their votes to hold Feinstein accountable. Interestingly, Mukasey’s confirmation blunder was cited specifically in the previous censure push when Art Torres put his credibility on the line defending her. And this week DiFi undermined that credibility with retroactive immunity caving at the same time CDP credibility was threatened with the Perata handout which rationalizers say was necessary because of Mukasey. Accountability matters.  

Friday Evening Open Thread

A few tidbits:

• Pasadena-based IndyMac becomes the second-largest bank to fail in US history.  Smells like 1929.  But don’t worry, it’s all in your head.

• Calitics friend Jackie Speier is forwarding her first piece of legislation, to set a national speed limit at 60 mph in urban areas and 65 mph on rural highways.  Slowing down to 60 mph or less significantly improves fuel efficiency.  Then again, so does not driving – as SoCal’s newest transit riders are learning.  But this is a tiny fix that could have an immediate impact on reducing gasoline use.

• Hey look, it’s Dianne Feinstein promoting a Republican-supported water bond that would build more dams (it’s a compromise measure, because some of the money earmarked for dams could go to groundwater storage and other water projects)!  Telling that Dave Cogdill immediately endorsed it while Da Don was cool.

Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, D-Oakland, had a tepid response, calling on the governor to first authorize $872 million in unspent water funds and reach agreement on a $15.2 billion budget shortfall before seeking a water bond in the Capitol.

“I am open to doing a water bond,” Perata said in a statement. “First, however, the state should spend the bond money voters approved in 2006, and then, we must pass a responsible budget that can pay for the debt service on a new bond.”

Use this as an open thread.