Because that may be what stands between us and a  Dianne Feinstein for Governor campaign:

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who has been forced to sit out this week’s Democratic convention in Denver because of a broken ankle, acknowledged in an interview with The Chronicle on Thursday that she is actively considering running for governor in 2010.

In a wide-ranging interview about presidential politics and the convention, the state’s senior U.S. senator said she first wants to see the results of the November election. If Democrats gain a big enough majority in Congress to move major legislation, she might choose to stay in Washington.

“I can’t say that since this (convention) started I haven’t thought about it, because I have,” Feinstein, 75, said of a possible run. “I want to see how close to 60 votes we can get in the Senate, what the committee structure is, and how best I can use my time.”

Feinstein is weak with Democrats so her winning the primary is far from certain. Still, this would be something California certainly does NOT need. Feinstein’s centrism isn’t likely to help rescue California from its budgetary problems, and her penchant for giving Republicans what they demand is troubling especially given Sacramento Republicans’ willingness to make some rather crazy demands.

The 2010 election must be about the future of California – whether we will move in a more progressive direction and plan for a 21st century future, or whether we’ll try and fail to maintain the 20th century. California needs new investment in public infrastructure and services and sustainable use of resources, not the dams and canals that Feinstein is pushing alongside Arnold Schwarzenegger.

I will be on KRXA 540 AM this morning at 8 to discuss this and other topics in California politics

Regardless of your stance on Proposition 11, the redistricting reform measure, hopefully everyone can agree that it shouldn’t be used to distort reality, right? Unfortunately that’s exactly what’s happening in the media’s coverage of both Prop 11 and the budget fight. Today’s column from George Skelton is a perfect example of how the media likes to let Republicans off the hook for their failures by blaming Democrats instead – in this case for the long budget delay.

Skelton buys hook, line, and sinker – without the skepticism a journalist should normally display – the bill of goods that Arnold Schwarzenegger sells him on Prop 11 and the budget. Although Skelton acknowledges the 2/3 rule is more important, he still buys into the long discredited notion that legislative redistricting is the cause of Sacramento gridlock:

But I wouldn’t argue with Schwarzenegger’s thesis: Gerrymandering tends to reward extremism in both parties and punish compromise, locking lawmakers into ideological corners….

Republicans pledge not to raise taxes. Democrats promise a laundry list of social programs the state can’t afford.

Then they come to Sacramento and can’t compromise.

“With the redistricting the way it is done, Republicans can only win [primaries] if they’re way to the right and Democrats can only win if they are way to the left,” Schwarzenegger lamented to a Los Angeles news conference Wednesday, pitching for his budget proposal that includes a sales tax increase, billions in spending cuts and budgeting reform.

Neither Arnold nor Skelton are telling the truth, and I leave it up to the reader to determine whether this is a deliberate lie. The Democrats HAVE produced compromise after compromise. They have consistently agreed to spending cuts over the last several years and the joint Assembly-Senate Democratic budget plan this year included several billion in spending cuts, alongside new revenues. That’s exactly the solution a new PPIC poll suggests Californians want. Dems even put it to a vote – and Republicans shot it down. Republicans have yet to offer ANY alternative.

It is undeniable that it is the Republicans alone who are responsible for this budget delay. Look at the email Republican Senator Dave Cogdill sent rejecting compromise:

“The Modesto Bee wants me to raise YOUR taxes!

“I just wanted to pass on this morning’s editorial from one of our local papers. They are calling on my friend Assembly Leader Mike Villines and me to consider raising your taxes. I don’t think that’s what you elected me to do. You elected me to represent you and to fight for a commonsense budget that is not balanced on the backs of taxpayers. California is already one of the most over-taxed states in the nation. With an additional tax increase, we’d vie for number one. That is not a distinction this state needs, especially with a slowing economy.

“This state has a spending problem, not a revenue problem. A tax increase would only encourage more irresponsible spending, cause the loss of over 56,000 jobs, smother the economy, and hurt hardworking Californians. Instead of a tax increase, this state desperately needs budget reform, measures to stimulate the economy and fiscal restraint now and into the future.

Both Skelton and Schwarzenegger allude to the reasons for Cogdill’s and other Republicans’ refusal to compromise – if they do they will be subject to a primary challenge by another wingnut who will say “the incumbent voted for a tax increase,” which makes Republican legislators skittish:

Sitting in his conference room, Schwarzenegger told me: “They are saying things in here — and I never want to repeat it because what we say in this office shouldn’t be repeated — but it’s clear that their hearts are sometimes in the right direction. But they’re afraid to go back to their districts because they’d get slaughtered.

“They could never win anything again. Their political career is over.”

Schwarzenegger was referring to the Republicans he has been trying to lobby for a tax increase. But he added: “Same thing with the Democrats. They have those kind of fears.”

With Republicans running so far to the right and Democrats to the left, the governor complained, “they can’t meet in the middle.”

The first part refers to Republicans and is entirely accurate. But Arnold can’t tell Californians the truth, that this budget crisis is entirely the Republicans’ fault, so he tacks on at the end “oh yeah the Dems have the same problem.”

But they don’t. Democrats have been willing to propose spending cuts. It’s not fear of the left that has prevented them from compromising but the fact that Republicans refuse tax increases. Arnold and Skelton are not being straight with the public here.

More fundamentally, their views on Prop 11 and the budget defy logic. As has been explained countless times – apparently falling on deaf ears – “gerrymandering” is NOT the cause of Republican extremism. Most of California is politically self-segregated. There’s no way to draw competitive districts in San Francisco, Fresno, and south Orange County.

The Republican Party nationwide is characterized by a far-right anti-government zealotry that pervades the voter base and the funding sources. Prop 11 won’t change that.

Finally, Skelton again repeats the discredited canard that California has a spending problem. Instead we have a structural revenue shortfall – we don’t raise enough money to pay for basic services. Republicans know this but don’t have the guts to implement revenue solutions because they’re scared of their fellow far-right freaks. Republicans and Republicans alone are responsible for the budget delay.

But instead of placing the blame squarely on their shoulders, look how Skelton ends his column:

Good people working in a bad system — some of it, the gerrymandering, self-perpetuated by Democrats.

He winds up blaming Democrats for Republican failures. And we wonder why the budget is so late. If I knew that I could screw around and not do my job and someone else would get the blame, I’d do it too.

As the Siege of Sacramento continues with no end in sight it becomes clear what the problem is: taxes.

Taxes have been at the core of Republican politics for 30 years. It’s their issue of last resort – when your back is up against the wall, tell the voters the Dems are going to raise your taxes. Even though it’s not true, Gallup reports over half the country thinks Obama will raise their taxes.

Here in California Republicans are playing a similar game. Party out of fear that they’ll face a primary challenge if they vote for a tax increase, partly to try and dig themselves out of an electoral hole, and partly because they genuinely believe in destroying government in order to make the rich richer, Republicans have ground the budget to a halt over a refusal to accept new taxes. Even Arnold had to accept reality and propose a tax increase, but tied to a shock doctrine reduction in taxes after three years, which would just make the budget worse.

Unfortunately the recession may be bolstering their cause. Two local tax plans failed yesterday – a Salinas hospital measure and a Santa Cruz 911 funding measure were defeated by voters in an all-mail election. Perhaps the timing of these votes was poor and there will be a more favorable turning in November. But as there will be a large number of local tax measures on the November ballot, and as the ongoing state budget standoff revolves around taxes, these results suggest that we need to be doing much more to educate and organize voters to protect necessary services.

The problem is that Republicans have successfully framed anti-tax politics as populist politics. It’s easy for them to go to voters in a recession and say “you’re already hurting – why should you pay more money to government?” This depends on voters assuming that tax money basically vanishes into a black hole, never to be returned in the form of services and savings. That’s totally incorrect, but it’s a view that the traditional media is too happy to repeat.

As we enter a recession this is the worst possible time to starve government of needed revenue, of cutting services people need to stay afloat. Schools, hospitals, 911 services, mass transit – these are all services that save people money and provide jobs. During the last severe recession, in 1990-91, both the US and California raised taxes. This smoothed out the downward curve and helped the economy recover quickly, contrary to Republican claims.

But it’s rare that we hear Democrats framing it in precisely those terms. We’ve seen the beginnings of campaigning on the budget but still Democrats have not offered a coherent and aggressive campaign. The budget is linked to the economy, and until Democrats undermine Republican frames on taxes, they’ll never be able to reclaim the governor’s office or attain a 2/3 majority.

Arnold is admitting defeat with his petulant “I won’t sign any bills” nonsense, which has accomplished exactly zero progress on the budget while confusing the fall ballot picture. He will sign AB 3034 today which will replace the existing high speed rail Proposition 1 with Proposition 1A. Prop 1A is a slightly modified version of Prop 1 with more fiscal oversight, clearer rules on public-private partnerships, and some environmental rules that the Sierra Club had sought.

It was believed that the final deadline for changes to the November ballot was Sunday, but according to the Fresno Bee “the governor’s office thinks there are a few days left.”

While it’s good to see Arnold getting back to the process of governing, the whole sorry episode is another example of his failed tenure as our governor. Petulance isn’t leadership.

More at the California High Speed Rail Blog.

Already 75 degrees here in Monterey. Saw some dolphins out past the kelp at San Carlos Beach. Nice cool ocean breeze. Who needs Denver when you have the Pacific Ocean?

Some of the happenings in and around California politics this morning:

• McCain dropped by Sacramento yesterday and told donors he would not “take your money and leave.” If you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you – but then again if he wants to pour money into California, be my guest…
• SoCal housing prices fall by 25% from 2007 – maybe now my sister can buy a house in Orange County? More seriously, the foreclosure wave is hitting low-income tenants hard as the few landlords who do take Section 8 renters are losing their properties. This leaves the tenants with, in some cases, nowhere to go.
• More layoffs in print media as McClatchy plans to offer buyouts to over half the Sac Bee’s full-time staff. Their sister paper, the Modesto Bee, offered buyouts to ALL full-timers recently. I know the traditional media likes to blame us big bad bloggers for their woes, but I strongly doubt it’s the blogs that are hurting Central Valley papers.
• Speaking of the traditional media, not every outlet is playing along with the “omg Democrats disunited” story. The Salinas Californian has a good, if brief piece on Shawn Bagley, CDP Region 9 Director and one of Monterey County’s elected DNC delegates. He was a Hillary supporter and was elected as a Hillary delegate, but is strongly pro-Obama now, as are most of his colleagues. The only PUMAs around here are the mountain lions lurking amongst the oaks…

Got anything else? Add it!

UPDATE by Dave:

One of the most potent objections to the Republicans’ drilling zealotry has been to remind Americans of the devastation that resulted from the 1969 Santa Barbara oil spill. As Van Jones explained in his talk with David Dayen, the fight against drilling is a fight FOR jobs and the economy and Santa Barbara knows this well. When oil drenches the beaches, kids get sick, service industry jobs that the already-struggling Santa Barbara working class depends upon vanish, and the overall economy suffers. Which is why Santa Barbara County has led the fight against offshore drilling for the last 40 years.

Until now. The rapid growth of Santa Maria, in the northern part of the county, has shifted the county’s political demography. North county conservatives now control the Board of Supervisors 3-2. And even though they voted last year to reaffirm their support of the offshore drilling ban, Santa Barbara’s role as the poster child for drilling’s consequences has led them to change their minds. As the LA Times reports, the Republican majority is expected to vote to support drilling:

Nearly 40 years after a disastrous oil spill off the Santa Barbara coast galvanized the nation and gave birth to the modern environmental movement, the Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors is poised to vote Tuesday in support of offshore drilling…

But Tuesday’s vote is as much about the tension between inland and the coast as it is about the price of a barrel of crude. Population and political power have been shifting away from the more liberal coast, and the board of supervisors has a conservative, pro-industry majority for the first time in about a decade.

The result: An expected 3-2 vote to support increased oil drilling off the same beaches that were coated in crude and covered with the corpses of birds, seals and dolphins after 3 million gallons of oil leaked from an offshore drilling site in 1969.

As you can see by the lede, the LA Times is dutifully buying into the Republican game plan – if you can show America that even Santa Barbara supports drilling, then your cause is boosted that much more strongly. The devil’s in the details, of course – the Supervisors that actually represent the coast support the ban, and the 3 who will vote against the ban are from inland areas. They’re playing their part in the grand Republican plan quite effectively.

At the same time they’re going against the economic needs of their constituents. The rapid growth of Santa Maria is driven by housing costs – it’s more affordable for workers whose jobs are on the coast to live in Santa Maria and commute down 101 to Santa Barbara. If drilling is renewed, it WILL lead to more oil spills, and Santa Maria residents will suffer. And for what? So that oil companies can sell the oil on the global market.

As David Dayen and Van Jones agreed earlier today, Democrats need to fight back on economic terms. Santa Barbara County residents need permanent alternatives to high gas prices, they need good jobs, and they need affordable housing.  Santa Barbara County residents would be signing an economic death warrant by backing new drilling, regardless of which side of the mountains they live on.

I will be on KRXA 540 AM at 8 AM to discuss this and other California political issues

Today Darrell Steinberg is expected to finally be elected as Senate President Pro Tem, bringing the failed leadership of Don Perata to a welcome end. George Skelton welcomes him to office with a column the landmark smart growth bill that Steinberg has been pushing through the legislature. Although the bill won’t pass this year, it has a big head of steam behind it, and faces good prospects in the 2009 session.

Steinberg’s bill would link land use planning in California to the AB 32 global warming targets:

“One issue everyone has been afraid to touch is land use,” Steinberg says. “Everyone understands about using alternative fuel. But land use has been the third rail. AB 32 changed the equation because now land use has to be part of the solution to global warming. You can’t meet our goal just with alternative fuels. You have to reduce the number of vehicle miles traveled.

“If people are going to drive — and they are going to drive — we need to plan in ways to get them out of their cars faster. That means shrinking — not the amount of housing, not economic development, not growth — but shrinking the footprint on which that growth occurs.”

Steinberg wants it to occur within a smaller circle around downtown.

Basically the bill would work like this: Each metropolitan region would adopt a “sustainable community strategy” to encourage compact development. They’d mesh it with greenhouse emissions targets set by the California Air Resources Board, which is charged with commanding the state’s fight against global warming.

Also included are preferential funding for transportation projects that fit with the “sustainable community strategy” and an expedited permitting process for those developments that fit the law’s and the community strategy’s goals.

Tom Adams of the California League of Conservation Voters called the plan “the most important land-use bill in California since enactment of the Coastal Act three decades ago” and he’s right to say it. But the plan does more than help the environment and reduce carbon emissions.

One year ago I called for “redefining the California dream” – restoring the economic security of California workers by abandoning sprawl and turning to urban density and mass transit. This is not just an environmental move, but it is absolutely necessary for job growth, affordable housing, and basic financial security.

California can no longer afford sprawl. The national housing bubble burst right here, in the exurbs of Stockton, Modesto, and Moreno Valley. As gas prices rise at a rate of 30% every year since 2002, sprawl becomes literally unaffordable for most Californians, with a devastating ripple effect throughout the economy.

Republicans will predictably be furious with Steinberg’s plan, but that’s because they represent the emergent “homeowner aristocracy” – certain (by no means all) households that bought their home prior to 1990 or so, those who want to preserve the conditions of the 20th century at all costs.

As Jerry Brown recognized when he was governor 30 years ago, and still recognizes today, density done right is the key to maintaining the middle-class California dream for the 21st century. Only by following the Portland model of strictly limiting sprawl and encouraging infill development and providing the transportation options needed to serve that development can we bring affordability back to California, and secure the economic future for new generations of Californians.

Steinberg’s genius move is to link that strategy to the fight against global warming. It’s nice to finally see some real leadership from Democrats on this matter and particularly from the new leader of the State Senate. SB 375 may not make it to the governor’s desk this year, but it deserves our strong support in the 2009 session. It will transform California for the better, and there are few bills aside from SB 840 that can credibly make that claim.

One of the most important but so far overlooked narratives of this election cycle is the return of taxes as a major political issue. The recession is hitting government budgets just as that same downturn, combined with soaring gas prices and global warming is creating demand for new spending.

Against this backdrop conservatives are now convinced that their way out of an ugly election cycle is to rally the public behind their rabid anti-tax politics. Constant attacks on Obama as a tax-raiser are partly to blame for McCain’s recent rise in the polls.

And here in the states Republicans are again turning to the tax revolt, their bread and butter for 30 years. Republican intransigence on the California budget is best seen as part of this national strategy to break Democrats on the tax rack.

The Wall Street Journal has a great overview of tax politics in the states, including a lunatic proposal to eliminate Massachusetts’ income tax and a equally nutty plan to allow Oregon residents to deduct an unlimited amount of federal tax on their state returns.

Here in California conservatives are already circling the wagons on taxes. John and Ken, the reliable bellwethers of SoCal conservatism, raked Arnold over the coals yesterday over taxes:

Schwarzenegger tried to defend new taxes as necessary because the state was still paying off debts incurred by predecessor Gov. Gray Davis. But the hosts pressed further and suggested that Schwarzenegger abandoned his original mission of fixing the state’s fiscal situation in order to pursue environmental goals.

That seemed to upset the governor, who maintained that his environmental policies had nothing to do with the state budget.

“This is absolutely absurd what you’re saying right now,” Schwarzenegger said. “….You’re living in the Stone Age if you think that the environmental issue has anything to do with the budget or the declining economy worldwide.”

“Don’t lie to the people,” Schwarzenegger added. “That’s all I can tell you, don’t lie to the people. Don’t pull wool over their eyes. It’s nonsense Republican right-wing talk.”

To which John and Ken then asked whether Arnold was under anesthesia. Stay classy, Los Angeles.

What this shows is that the conservatives are in no mood whatsoever to give ground on taxes. The drubbing John and Ken gave Arnold is a taste of what many Sacramento Republicans might face from within their own party. Their fear is that by voting for a tax increase, they’re going to face primary challengers who will simply tell the wingnut base “my opponent voted for a tax increase” and their ambitious political careers will be over.

So it seems very unlikely that Republicans will give in this time. That leaves it up to Democrats to force the issue. The only thing that should scare Republicans more than a primary fight is losing the general election. That means Dems have to go after Republicans hard – and that in turn means Dems have to finally stop avoiding the issue and for the first time in 30 years make a case for taxes.

The problem is that, with reporters like Lisa Vorderbrueggen repeating conservative tax framing, Dems have an uphill battle. Way too many Californians assume taxes are taken out of their own pocket and never returned to them, even though Californians derive great and real economic value from government spending.

One angle would be to, as Anthony Wright suggests over on the left-hand column, make the budget about the economy. Explain the value of the services Californians receive from government and show how, in a recession, the loss of those services will hurt their bottom line.

Dems would also do well to explain to voters how Republican tax cuts are behind this crisis – from the 1998 McClintock tax cuts to Arnold’s $6 billion VLF cut to the repeated borrowing that Republicans have demanded, this budget crisis would be quite manageable were it not for reckless tax cuts.

Further, explain how tax cuts are also responsible for our economic downturn. With more government spending on higher education, health care, and mass transit, many of the costs that currently cripple households would be eased.

It’s not about the “budget” and never has been. This about taxes. With their backs up against the wall conservatives have returned to the strategies that brought them to power in the first place, and in California that means stoking a tax revolt. Unless Dems are able to defang that argument this budget crisis, and perhaps even the 2008 election, are not going have a happy ending.

[UPDATE] Almost as soon as I posted this Arnold announced the fundraiser will be rescheduled to Sept. 19. Doesn’t change the basic issue though.

Not content with firing 20,000 state workers and jeopardizing the wages of thousands more, and apparently unconcerned that the lack of a state budget might further harm California’s already reeling economy, Arnold Schwarzenegger is going to Portland on Thursday to raise money for Republican US Senator Gordon Smith.

The fundraiser is a slap in the face to Californians, and not just because Arnold is abandoning the budget stalemate. Gordon Smith played a central role in the salmon crisis that has crippled the California fishing industry and imperiled the jobs of thousands.

In 2002 Smith conspired with Karl Rove and Dick Cheney to divert water from the Klamath River to farmers in southern Oregon experiencing dry conditions, in order to shore up Smith’s rural base. Cheney convened a “God squad” that overrode endangered species protections in order to make the water diversion for nakedly political purposes – still one of the boldest and most destructive anti-environment moves of the entire Bush era.

The result was an ongoing catastrophe for the Pacific Coast salmon fishery. The diversion caused a massive die-off of salmon in the Klamath River in 2002, but the effects have been long-lasting. Salmon numbers have been so slow to recover that salmon fishing was severely restricted in 2007. Here in 2008, of course, the ENTIRE west coast salmon fishery has been closed, an unprecedented event. While the issues in the Sacramento Delta were a primary motivator behind the total closure, the ongoing weakness of the Klamath fishery, dating to the 2002 fish kill, is a contributing factor.

Gordon Smith is unrepentant  about his role in the fish kill:

Sen. Gordon Smith said Tuesday that he has no regrets about the diversion of water from the Klamath River that was intended to protect fish but instead went to farmers….

“I am not here to make any apologies,” said Smith, who faces re-election next year. “I am proud to fight for the farmers or any group of Americans whom the federal government says has no standing, no water. I just find that offensive.”…

I am not sorry for fighting for farmers. I have a responsibility for humankind.

Arnold Schwarzenegger has his own responsibility – to Californians and their jobs. To Californians who have been devastated by the salmon crisis, from Yurok and Hoopa peoples living along the Klamath whose traditional rights have been eroded, to the fishermen in towns like Fort Bragg and Monterey whose livelihoods have been put at risk so Gordon Smith could score points with a few farmers in southern Oregon.

Arnold’s attendance at the fundraiser is a slap at his fellow Californians. And while it’s not likely that we can convince him to cancel the event, we can fight back by donating to Jeff Merkley, the progressive Democrat running against Smith. Merkley has said that he will help save the salmon by preferencing science, not crass politics. It’s a better position for us Californians than the fish and job killing of Gordon Smith that our own governor is now helping enable.