San Diego Mayoral race gets nasty

by Brian Leubitz

I’ll admit that there are others doing a better job of following the San Diego mayoral election, I’ve been kind of viewing it from afar. However, this little exchange was worth noting:

@vosdscott @MickeyKasparian Because @nathanfletcher is an arrogant, self-centered prick who sees himself as God's gift to America. #idolatry

— Tony Krvaric (@TonyKrvaric) November 14, 2013

Now, that just looks like your generic stupid person on the internet, until you realize that Tony Krvaric is the Southern Vice Chair  of the California Republican Party. Fletcher is still something of a sore spot for the local Republicans, but this is a bit much even considering that fact.

Speaking of Fletcher, he’s been losing steam rapidly and a new Datamar poll shows him polling third, well behind David Alvarez in second. At this point, the big question is how turnout will affect Kevin Faulconer’s vote total. Datamar has him right around 44%, below the threshold to skip a February runoff. No matter who is in that runoff, expect more of the war of words over the next few months.

LA Times poll has dire warnings for the minority party

by Brian Leubitz

If you look at the composition of the legislature, or the voter registration numbers, you’ll quickly see that we are in a pretty gloomy era for Republicans. But, wait, darker days are just around the corner: a LA Times poll shows just how poorly the CRP is situated in front of the demographic wave.

Already those younger and minority voters – 38% of the voter pool – are propping up Democrats in California. Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown has a positive job approval rating of 55% overall. Among white voters the rating is 51%. Among black voters, it is 61%, Among Latinos, it is 67%.

Other poll findings suggest no end to that imbalance. Asked their political ideology, 52% of those ages 49 and younger describe themselves as liberal, to 40% who say conservative. That is close to the opposite of those over 50, only 47% of whom say they are liberal to 58% conservative. (LA Times)

As the Times points out, there is hope for the GOP that younger voters will gradually shift to the right, a process that has occurred in previous generations. But if you look at who today’s Republicans are, here is what you get: a middle aged, upper middle class, white man.

These are not the demographics for future electoral success. Minorities continue to grow as a percentage of voters, and broader participation in statewide elections could simply exacerbate these problems for the CRP.

But the CRP isn’t alone, this is the same problem generally facing the entire Republican Party.  And Gov. Chris Christie is an excellent example of this. He is considered a moderate Republican, and gains a strong majority of support among Northeastern Republicans. But he only gets 27% of Southern GOP support in a recent poll. And head to head against Hillary Clinton, no Republican candidate can really claim to have an electability argument in their favor.

If the Republicans are to move forward as a viable party, they need to consider whether they will stick to the ideological guns on social and immigration issues. As it stands, even a solid political tactician like Jim Brulte won’t be able to swing the party’s fate without a major shift in their overall goals as a party.

Embattled Senator Faces Rules Committee to Keep Committee Assignments

by Brian Leubitz

Ron Calderon’s had a no-good, awful, very bad few days. But being named in an FBI investigation generally doesn’t make for good times. And while Sen. Steinberg notes that he doesn’t want to play judge and jury for the San Gabriel Valley senator, he would like to pull him off his committees to limit any appearances of improprieties. Sen Steinberg:

I am asking the Senate Rules Committee to temporarily remove Senator Ron Calderon as chair of the Senate Insurance Committee, pending resolution of the United States Attorney’s investigation into his conduct. I will also ask the Committee to temporarily remove Senator Calderon from all other committee assignments, pending the same investigation.

I do not make this request lightly, nor do I judge the truth of the publicly reported allegations. I am concerned, however, about keeping Senator Calderon in his positions. The allegations, though yet unproven, are serious enough to cloud any interactions the Senator might have with colleagues, advocates, and the public on issues within his jurisdiction.

The allegation that an elected official accepted money and other favors in exchange for official acts is perhaps the most serious breach of the public trust and the institution in which they serve. In other highly sensitive public situations that do not involve proven allegations of misconduct, public employers take similar actions. The public and the Senate deserve no less protection in the current situation.

Calderon has made no comment, and seems unlikely to fight the “temporary” changes. He’ll likely need to save his energy for a prospective prosecution and general fight for the future of the Calderon political dynasty. But George Skelton points out a little something about our political system: there is far too fine of a line between bribery and legal contributions.

In politics, there’s sleaze that can send a slimeball to prison. There also is legal bribery. Lots of it….  And I’m not saying that legal bribery is as odorous as smelly sleaze. But it does tend to emit a stench. Campaign money actually gets a bad rap, to one degree. It costs a fair amount to run a competitive race.

If the public is unwilling to finance the campaigns of state politicians – and public financing has become impractical anyway, because of U.S. Supreme Court rulings – then the political funds must come from some other source. A very wealthy candidate might be willing to finance his own campaign, but normally the funding is supplied by favor-seeking special interests.(George Skelton / LA Times)

Skelton goes on to list a few of the many ways rich donors can curry favor with cash, and how those politicians can then spend it. Of course there is a stench, but this is the system that we chose, or at least the system that the Supreme Court has chosen for us. It is a system that is dominated by those with the most readily available cash.

We should do everything in our power to root out corruption, but we have to do as much as possible to clean up the system that makes corruption, legal and illegal, so readily available.

Photo credit: Sen. Ron Calderon’s office. Caption: “Senator Calderon, accompanied by his older brother, Assemblymember Charles Calderon, and the Senator’s nephew, Ian Calderon, as they prepare to begin giving the turkeys to the local community organizations that participated in Operation Gobble.”

SB City Councilwoman Wendy McCammack Finishes First in Mayoral Vote, Gets Recalled

by Brian Leubitz

Recalls generally come in waves, and the wave in San Bernardino is no different.  While the last 24 hours featured more Calitics coverage of the city than the previous year, it certainly has been an interesting year.  City Attorney James F Penman’s long tenure in office, over 25 years, has come to an end after his recall last night. But that isn’t even the most interesting part of all this. The recall supporters also recalled two of his allies, Wendy McCammack and John Valdivia.

Valdivia was ultimately able to fend off the challenge in a very poor turnout election. Epicly poor, really. As of the latest tallies last night, which hopefully will go up a lot by the next update tomorrow afternoon, turnout in the San Bernardino election was standing at 7.75%. Yes, well under 10%, which seems like a hopeful target for the final tally.  How low? Well, that’s substantially less than the 15% of voters needed to get the recall on the ballot. This is an odd situation: More people signed the recall petition than voted in the recall election.

But I digress, Valdivia is leading at (609-343) to keep his job. On the other hand, Wendy McCammack is looking like she is in trouble at 1,256-944 in favor of recall. The irony of that is the fact that McCammack is now leading the mayoral vote, and appears set for a runoff with businessman Carey Davis:

Councilwoman Wendy McCammack led all mayoral candidates and will face accountant Carey Davis in a February run-off, even as voters in McCammack’s 7th Ward decided to recall her from the council.

With all precincts reporting in unnofficial results Tuesday night, McCammack led Davis by 136 votes, with candidates Rick Avila and Rikke Van Johnson trailing by more than a 1,000 votes and others in the 10-person field further behind. (SB Sun / Ryan Hagen)

The tumult and odd results in this election shouldn’t really be a huge surprise, as the city is going through bankruptcy. And perhaps voters were simply turned off by the whole process, but really, people, now is the time to engage, not ignore your local government. But hey, maybe we can make some trivia questions out of this.

Former self-proclaimed vigilante looks to finish off the CA Republican Party

by Brian Leubitz

Sometimes when you are swimming, or surfing, or generally playing in the ocean, you can be surprised by a big wave. Other times, you can see them building for miles. Asm. Tim Donnelly’s gubernatorial campaign is the latter. He’s the wave that is building miles away, ready to crash down upon California’s GOP, making the long-term fallout of Prop 187 look quaint. But, he’s in, for whatever reason:

Donnelly plans to make the announcement at a Los Angeles manufacturing facility. … The conservative Southern California Assemblyman, who earlier had announced an exploratory committee for the run, will challenge moderate former Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado for the GOP nomination. Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown, who has not made an official announcement but is widely expected to seek a fourth term, is not expected to be challenged for his party’s nomination.

In a statement released Monday, Donnelly said he will stress three key issues in the campaign: jobs, civil liberties, and “leaving California a better place for the next generation.” (SF Gate / Carla Marinucci)

The CRP has two options next June, and neither of them are all that stunning. Maldonado’s campaign has already been through some tough times, firing campaign staffers and other such shenanigans. He’s not that great of a candidate, having already lost statewide and for Congress. But, he’s not going to offend anybody, he has a good personal narrative, and (probably) won’t embarrass the party.

Donnelly, as you can see from the Colbert Report story to the right, is a different story. His placing in the Top-2 could radically change the face of the state party. While I’ve not seen any polls, a one-on-one matchup with the Governor would be a landslide of epic proportions, and turn minorities away from the CRP for several elections to come.

Perhaps it would be hard to resist the shadenfreude, but a complete lack of an honest opposition could raise problems. Like the Calderons or other such nonsense. But, as the headline for the above post says, it should be interesting.  

Local measures, officials to be decided

by Brian Leubitz

Here in San Francisco, the ballot is, shall we say, not all that interesting to many voters. As I was on the street last night passing out slate cards, I heard several “there’s an election?” and flat out “I’m not planning on voting.” But, in many ways, you can’t blame them for the apathy, as three of the the four candidate elections are unopposed. But throughout the state, there are some interesting elections, including several important ballot measures.

In San Bernardino, voters will choose a new mayor to help the city recover from its current bankrupt state:

Despite the problems, 10 candidates are vying for votes Tuesday to replace two-term Mayor Patrick J. Morris.

Aside from Korner, the candidates are: developer and former two-time candidate Rick Avila; retired high school coach Richard Castro; city public works employee Draymond Crawford; accountant Carey Davis; City Councilman Rikke Van Johnson; City Councilwoman Wendy McCammack; rail analyst Henry Nickel; and real estate broker Karmel Roe. There’s also a write-in candidate: Concepcion Powell, a business development consultant and founder of the San Bernardino-based U.S. Hispanic Women Grocers Assn. (LA Times)

And there are other problems in San Bernardino, as two of the candidates had to step out because of corruption issues. (And one apparently regularly speaks to her deity) But the big issues facing the city aren’t going away. A runoff seems likely given the big pack of candidates, so there will be more time to consider the issues. Republican Councilwoman Wendy McCammack and Businessman Carey Davis seem to be slight favorites to be in that runoff.

Elsewhere, Palo Alto will consider its housing density future and San Francisco will consider waterfront height restrictions. Anything else you are watching?

$10 million disappears in right-wing money laundering operation

by Brian Leubitz

How go those Gap jeans you are wearing today? And your Charles Schwab account is growing, I’m sure. And, of course, you totally bought Eli Broad’s support of Gov. Brown’s tax measure, right?

Well, welcome to the world of dark money, a bizarro land where people get to say and do very different things. Reports released by state investigators show a complex money laundering scheme involving several shady right-wing money movers and organizations, all to help hide the donors of about $25 million intended to fight against Gov. Brown’s tax measure, Prop 30, and for the anti-labor measure, Prop 32. While many of the names will be unfamiliar, some of them are pretty much household names. But these are people that don’t really want the attention, they just want to get their way. Because they are rich and that is what happens.

So, a pair of Republican consultants, Tony Russo and Jeff Miller, went about laundering the money through a vast network of Koch brother connected organizations in order to hide the true source of the money. Just to be clear, there is a word for that here in California: illegal.

The Fisher family, of the clothing firm Gap Inc., contributed more than $9 million. San Francisco investor Charles Schwab gave $6.4 million, and Los Angeles philanthropist Eli Broad sent $1 million.

The money went to a Virginia nonprofit that would use it to pay for the ad blitz and be allowed to keep the contributors secret. Nonprofits, unlike political action committees, are not required to identify their donors under federal law. … But things went from bad to worse. Although Russo handed over $25 million, only about $15 million ended up back in California. And when the money surfaced, it sparked an investigation by state authorities, who last month levied $16 million in penalties against the Arizona group and three others.(LA Times

Somewhere along the line, Sean Noble, a Koch-affiliated operative, decided that he actually wasn’t into sending the last $10 million back to California through their little washing machine. The attention had gotten to be too much. The fact that Russo claims he still doesn’t know what happens to that cash is something of a funny post script.

But the real fight is over the large penalty handed down to the Small Business Action Committee(SBAC), the California PAC that spent the money attacking Prop 30 and supporting Prop 32. The FPPC levied a “disgorgement” penalty that requires the group to pay to the state an amount of money equal to the dark money that they accepted. Of course, the SBAC is fighting the fine, and the result of that fight could mean a lot for how ballot measures are run over the next few years.

Perhaps if voters had easy access to more information, they could simply vote against any initiative campaign that was using the shady money. But in the real world, cash is still king.  If the fine is upheld, dark money could stall at the state border. If it is overturned, expect the secretive cash to become an even bigger (yet still overwhelmingly shady) tool in initiative campaigns.

Photo credit: Mayor Gavin Newsom on Flickr. Mayor Newsom (a prominent supporter of Prop 30) appeared with Charles Schwab at the opening of the Charles Schwab flagship space in San Francisco.

State Senator caught in undercover sting

by Brian Leubitz

Calderons and corruption? Well, shocking as it may be, Sen. Ron Calderon is currently involved in an undercover corruption sting.

State Sen. Ronald Calderon accepted bribes from a Southern California hospital executive who ran an alleged workers’ compensation scheme that brought the executive tens of millions of dollars, according to a sealed FBI affidavit obtained by Al Jazeera’s Investigative Unit.

In exchange for payments to family members, Calderon, a Democrat who represents a suburban district here, protected the interests in Sacramento of Michael Drobot, who ran a busy spinal surgery clinic in Long Beach, Calif., the affidavit says. The document says Calderon ensured that changes to state law would not injure Drobot’s lucrative business of providing spinal fusion surgery, which joins two or more vertebrae. (Al Jazeera America)

The article reads like an old school political hack job, but Al Jazeera says they got the material from the FBI affidavit. Stay classy Calderons!

Central Valley Congressman has strong opponents

by Brian Leubitz

Jeff Denham has made some waves over the past 36 hours as he became the first Republican Congress member to sign on to the House Democrats immigration reform proposal.

A Republican congressman from a heavily Hispanic district is breaking ranks from his party to join Democrats in an eleventh-hour push for a broad immigration overhaul before the end of the year. Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Calif.) plans to sign on as the lone GOP member with 185 Democrats to co-sponsor a plan that would give millions of unauthorized immigrants the chance to attain citizenship.

A handful of House Republicans have expressed support for citizenship legislation similar to the bipartisan bill that passed the Senate over the summer. But Denham is taking the additional – and politically provocative – step of locking arms with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and other Democrats trying to neutralize opposition from House conservatives and shake up a polarized immigration debate.(WaPo)

Denham has a strong challenger in Michael Eggman and some lagging poll numbers after the shutdown. He needs a change in the conversation from the disaster that the Republicans brought down upon the country. Immigration is a pivotal issue in a district with a strong Latino voter base, and Denham has never been a true believer in the rightwing on this front, so this is something of a fit. But it is a fit that was almost preordained by the politics.

But, at this point, a lot is still needed to make immigration reform actually happen. And even if there is some political cynicism at work, at least it is going the right direction.

Faces criticism (and praise) for exchange roll out

by Brian Leubitz

Tracy Seipel of the San Jose Mercury News has a profile well worth reading of Peter Lee, the executive director of Covered California:

His grandfather helped start the Palo Alto Medical Clinic in 1930, when the idea of a physicians’ group was so revolutionary that critics called it anti-competitive, even “communist.” And decades later, the Johnson administration recruited his uncle to help roll out Medicare, prompting new attacks from fellow doctors opposed to any slide into “socialized medicine.”

Now, Peter V. Lee, as executive director of Covered California, the state’s new health exchange, has the daunting task of executing a key part of the new federal health care law in the nation’s most populous state. And if the law succeeds here, many health care experts agree, it will likely succeed in other states. (SJ Merc)

Now, let’s just say that the California website rollout has been much smoother than the HealthCare.gov site that had another glitch last night. But there are still a few minor hiccups. But the key here is that it mostly works. It is no mystery why that happened, our lawmakers supported the system and gave it the resources it needed rather than fighting it. And sure, Lee has played a huge role in getting this up and going.

In the end, this system is far from the most effective and efficient health care delivery system, but it is an important step on the road.