All posts by Brian Leubitz

Budget

The Ransom Note

4 Comments

Every time the budget is due, it always seems to boil down to a series of Republican demands, or what we have called the ransom note.  Due to term limits, it’s always a different mob boss delivering the note, but the principle still holds.

They released this year’s ransom note rather late in the game, as they are want to do, as it heaps up the pressure on the people trying to get the budget done.  Very clever that way.  The Bee published the ransom letter last week with a series of handy notes as to any pertinent positions of the Administration.  

I won’t copy the whole thing here, as it is pretty long, but the 59 points on there boil down to few larger areas: pension reform, teacher (and anti-CTA) reform, CEQA, regulatory reform, a spending cap, AB 32 and greenhouse gas emissions, and a series of spending priorities.  These aren’t minor issues, and some of them, such as AB 32 and CEQA, aren’t even particularly related to the budget.

In other words, this is just another hostage crisis.  The Republicans are attempting to pass legislation that the voters of California would never support through their undemocractic supermajority powers. This list is beyond ridiculous.  If they think CEQA reform and the abolition of AB32 is so important, then do it one of the many legal ways, not through some sketchy forced vote trading scheme.  Get it through the legislature on its own merits, and if that really doesn’t work, tell the California people about it and go to the ballot.

But of course, we know how the people of California feel about such measures.  As we saw with Prop 23’s attempt to gut AB 32’s greenhouse gas standards, we just aren’t going to go for it.  So instead, they are trying to engage in barely legal (if that) vote trading with the Democrats just trying to keep the state on life support.

At some point you just have to say no, and move on to some more productive process.

Uncategorized

The New Public Square?

(cross posted from Prop 8 Trial Tracker)

Last year, Target got into some hot water for donating $150,000 to an organization in support of anti-gay Minnesota candidate for governor Tom Emmer.  Apparently in their continuing effort to remind the LGBT communities to stay away from big box stores, they have followed up this week by singling out an organization, Canvass For A Change (CFAC) that is canvassing San Diego stores to talk about marriage equality.

In a court document, a Target official at the Poway store complained that CFAC volunteers were talking to customers about gay marriage, among other issues, and contended that they had received complaints from some customers who were upset by the topic.

Court documents also show that Target Corp. is worried that the company may be viewed as being for gay marriage if activist groups like CFAC are allowed to speak to their customers. (San Diego Gay and Lesbian News)

See the flip for more.

The first defense that you will hear from every mainstream outlet is that Target just doesn’t like anybody outside their stores and that, heck, they even booted the Salvation Army.  (By the way, the Salvation Army is pretty anti-LGBT themselves.) Now, what you won’t hear is that they didn’t really boot the Salvation Army out, so much as paid them to go away. They give the Salvation Army a fairly sizable contribution every year.

There are two real issues going on here.  First, it seems that Target is, um, targeting this pro-marriage equality organization in a way that they aren’t for other organizations.  True, they do try to get rid of as many canvassers as they can outside of their stores.  But CFAC director Tres Watson says that the policy is not enforced uniformly at all, with Girl Scouts and veterans organizations tolerated, while CFAC is sued for an immediate injunction.

The other issues is the important nature of the first amendment freedom of speech issues.  Clearly if this were a Main Stree mom and pop store trying to sue an organization from setting up in the middle of the adjacent town square, they would be laughed out of court on first amendment grounds.  After all, we all have the right to speak our peace in that proverbial zone of free speech.   Yet unfortunately, there are few actual town squares left these days.  We just don’t live in an environment anymore where people cluster around the bandstand on Friday evenings.

Instead, we cluster around stores and strip malls, such as Target.  As the attorneys for CFAC have argued,  the strip mall is the new town square.  This is where people gather, and this is where you can speak if you want to get noticed.  This is how we confront issues facing our communities, through talking to each other.  And if we cut off this communication, we risk merely retreating to our own corners and further dividing our nation.

It turns out that the framers had it right on the First Amendment.  Now, of course you have to confront the issue of what if NOM or a similar organization were out there campaigning against equality? What would we say then? Well, for better or worse, organizations should be able to respectfully communicate a message.  Now, if they were to grow offensive or hostile, I think you have opened a different can of worms.

Now, the question for us a nation is how critical we think these First Amendment rights really are. Are they important enough to deal with on the way to stock up on paper towels and sporting goods? Ultimately, that is the question here.

Budget

Steinberg Ready to “Pull the Plug”

28 Comments

Sen. Steinberg looks pretty peeved in this little impromptu press conference.  His frustration with dealing with the Republicans is plainly visible, and for that you really can’t blame him.  After all, if you can blame him for anything, it is being too patient with them.  The question that is worth pondering now is whether we should have seen this coming three months ago?

Look, the Republicans are content to sit there and let the clock tick down.  As we proceed now, Gov. Brown becomes less popular, and there is a decreased sense of unity of purpose after the disaster that was Gov. Schwarzenegger.  Really, if your goal is to beat the government into submission, at this point you are just playing the long game.

And so the Republicans just sit there, taking their salary, taking that per diem, and sitting around playing tiddleywinks.  They haven’t even proposed anything resembling a full solution to the budget plan.  They keep talking about pension reform, but any economist or budget analyst can tell you that even if you did slash into public pensions, the savings wouldn’t come for at least 5-10 years.

In other words, the Republicans aren’t serious about balancing the budget.  They are content to watch the teacher layoffs and the elderly lose assistance.  It is all one big piece of white noise to them.

So, will the Democratic leadership give up? Well, at some point they won’t have a choice, but the Republicans are aware of that and have their own plan:

As Gov. Jerry Brown mulls his options on how to bring an election on taxes to the voters, Republicans are readying election measures of their own. GOP operatives filed two initiatives with the attorney general’s office Thursday — one to curb public employee pensions and another aimed at capping future state spending — in the event Brown walks away from talks with Republican lawmakers and opts for a November special election.

“I want to make sure appropriate reforms join any potential November election,” said former Assemblyman Roger Niello, the sponsor of the pension initiative. Niello, one of the Republicans to support tax increases in 2009, said he supports the five senators who are trying to broker a compromise with Brown. “My preference is that they work out a deal,” he said. (LA Times)

If it comes to a November ballot, it’s going to be pricey, and there are going to be a lot of ugly measures.  This just might end up being 2005 all over again. Whether it will defeat Gov. Brown like it did to Schwarzenegger is a whole other question.

Budget, Jerry Brown

Brown Signs Ugly Cuts Package

Well, we knew this was coming, but now it’s happened.  Democrats have just passed a series of massive, and heartbreaking, cuts:

Gov. Jerry Brown today signed bills making billions of cuts in California’s budget, raising community college fees and slicing support for the developmentally disabled and mentally ill.

The package raises community college fees from $26 per unit to $36 per unit and defers $2.1 billion in payments to K-12 schools to 2012-13.(SacBee)

The package cuts a bit over $8 billion, so there is still a long way to go before the budget is in order.  But, hooray, now we have cut from education and the social safety net. I’m sure Grover Norquist is happy.

Uncategorized

PPIC: Support for Extensions Slipping?

4 Comments

On the heels of the Field poll showing lots of “don’t knows” on Gov. Brown’s performance, out comes the PPIC poll showing slightly declining support for his potential tax extension measures.

Californians’ support for a special election has dropped across parties since January, when majorities favored the idea (73% Democrats, 64% independents, 55% Republicans). Today, 64 percent of Democrats, 57 percent of independents, and just 34 percent of Republicans say it is a good idea.

Support has also declined since January for the package that voters would be considering-a five-year extension of temporary increases in income and sales taxes and the vehicle license fee to avoid additional budget cuts. Today, less than half (46% all adults and likely voters) favor the governor’s proposal, a decline of 7 points among all adults and 8 points among likely voters. (PPIC)

The protracted debate has clearly taken a toll, with the Republican message basically just being an un-nuanced no.  However, I think you have to take most of these numbers with something of a grain of salt at this point.  The public at large is generally not that well informed on the issues being presented.  I think as we head into an election, the messages being distributed will be stark enough that the undecideds break heavily in one direction or another.

Which direction that will be remains to be seen.  Oh, and that whole if/when thing is still lingering.

Budget, Jerry Brown

Moving to Plan B?

22 Comments

While Gov. Brown negotiates, or well, attempts to negotiate, to get a few Republican votes to get the tax extensions on the ballot, a few folks are looking pretty concerned about whether those votes would ever be coming through.

As Gov. Jerry Brown continued to negotiate with Republican legislators on his plan to extend taxes, he also has begun to weigh going it alone, sources said Tuesday.

That could take two paths — forcing a special election onto the ballot through a majority vote in the Legislature, or going forward with an initiative campaign for November. The more likely route, sources said, would be with a November election rather than risking legal challenges to muscling it through on a majority vote.(CoCo Times)

Look, I’ve had my doubts since day one that any Republicans would really have the courage to buck the Grover Norquist gauntlet.  And frankly, they are showing themselves to be mired in their own propaganda to see past the present political situation.

Perhaps the wise thing would have been to start collecting signatures back in February, as the negotiation was really going forward, so we weren’t forced to wait for the Republicans.  And perhaps an initiative possibility would have brought some Republicans closer to the dotted line.

At any rate, if we go through the signature route, an election won’t happen until November, and we’ll be left with a dramatic and gaping hole in our budget until then.

UPDATE: CapitolAlert points out that Brown has $4 mil in the bank, plenty to qualify a measure or two for the ballot.

Marriage Equality

9th Circuit Denies Request to Lift Stay

A while back, the Prop 8 plaintiffs asked the 9th Circuit to lift their stay that continued enforcement of that odious legislation.  Given the situation at the time, with the changed facts of the lengthy California Supreme Court delay and the President’s determination that DOMA was unconstitutional, you’d think that maybe now would be the time to act on the District Court’s decision and let the marriages continue.

However, today they announced that they would not be doing that.

Having considered all of the factors set forth in Nken v. Holder, 129 S. Ct. 1749, 1756 (2009), and all of the facts and circumstances surrounding Plaintiffs’ motion to vacate the stay pending appeal, as well as the standard for vacatur set forth in Southeast Alaska Conservation Council v. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 472 F.3d 1097, 1101 (9th Cir. 2006), we deny Plaintiffs’ motion at this time. (h/t Poliglot)

I’m not sure I have any words to describe this, save one: heartless.  Perhaps the Court should tell that directly to Ed and Derrence.

Budget, Jerry Brown

Brown Maintains Favorable Ratings as State Waits For Budget Resolution

6 Comments

The Field Poll just released their survey on approval ratings (PDF) on Gov. Brown and the Legislature.  You probably know how this is going to go.

After nearly three months in office, Gov. Jerry Brown’s job performance is winning the approval of California voters by more than a 2-to-1 ratio, while the state Legislature continues to receive low marks, according to a Field Poll released today.

Brown has the approval of 48 percent of registered voters who were surveyed; 21 percent disapprove of his performance so far. Nearly a third, 31 percent, have no opinion. (SF Chronicle)

But, there is just a lot of tepidness here.  The no opinion group is quite large, and that is because, up until this point, there has been no real impact of his tenure.  However, if we are going to see movement on these numbers, it will come in whatever election season we have for the special election this spring/summer.

No big surprise on the Legislature’s numbers, which are running at a 16% approve, 70% disapprove right now.  The problem with numbers on the Legislature generally is that you are really asking about two entirely separate groups.  It isn’t like the Legislative Republicans are rowing in the same direction in any sense of the word.  So, there is something there for everybody to hate.  And given the lack of action in the Legislature, why not hate them.

That is, of course, a product of the 2/3 supermajority rule for revenue.  If the majority were able to rule, then people could form an opinion one way or the other.  But as it is, in this perpetual state of standstill, you can’t really be surprised that people hate it.