All posts by Brian Leubitz

What Sort of Pain Awaits Us in Brown’s Budget?

Well, it’s here the day we get Jerry Brown’s first budget.  The announcement will be aired at 11 on CalChannel and then the full budget will be available online at the same time.

But what should we expect? At the very least, there will be drastic changes to the way that we have done business for the last thirty years.  Brown has the opportunity to do what he should have done over thirty years ago when Prop 13 passed and deal with the ramifications.  Back in 1978, he declared himself a born-again tax cutter, and back-filled the Prop 13 cuts with the budget surplus he had built.  And thus the structural deficit was born.  

But, this time is different, with Brown reportedly bringing in “realignment” experts to look at how he can shift power (and revenue) back to the local governments and get them on board to help pass some revenue measures at the ballot.

Brown’s political calculus is this: Shift power to the locals, then go to the ballot and ask voters to approve the money to help pay for it. If the locals get behind it – they’ve been demanding money and autonomy for years – the ballot proposal ultimately could have a chance of passing. Local control in return for taxes. (CapWeekly)

Clearly state control over the past thirty years has run its course.  We haven’t really be successful at backfilling the local money, instead just getting creative at accounting and borrowing techniques.  But that is not to say that this is the clear solution to all that ails us.

Ultimately, this is a part of Jerry Brown’s effort at a progressive shock doctrine.  Make the people aware of the problems, bring the crisis closer to home and give them a say at the question of what kind of government that they want.

As the Capitol Weekly article points out, this realignment tactic has been tried before.  Some failed, and some succeeded.  But this is likely to be the biggest effort of the sort, and could represent the difference between a state that can prepare for the future or one that struggles to cope with the mistakes of the past.

UPDATE: According to a release from the governor’s office, we’re looking at some major cuts next year in addition to some additional revenue, if it can get passed in a special election.

Gov. Jerry Brown will propose a budget today that relies on $12.5 billion in spending cuts over the next 18 months and higher taxes over the next five years to solve the state budget deficit, his office announced this morning.

“These cuts will be painful, requiring sacrifice from every sector of the state, but we have no choice,” Brown said in a statement. “For 10 years, we’ve had budget gimmicks and tricks that pushed us deep into debt. We must now return California to fiscal responsibility and get our state on the road to economic recovery and job growth.”(SacBee)

UPDATE II: Gov. Brown is just wrapping up his press conference, and Ana Matasantos is on now.  You can grab the summaries here and the full details of the budget here. There is a lot of meat here, and I’ll take a more detailed look at this and post some more.

Noon Update: Just got the thoughts of Sen. Mark Leno, the Senate Budget Chair:

We are facing a budget crisis of epic proportion, and Governor Brown’s proposal reflects that sobering fact,” said Senator Leno. “I am committed to working with the Governor, my colleagues in the Legislature and the people of California to resolve our fiscal emergency. As we give careful consideration to each of the governor’s ideas, we recognize that difficult cuts have to be made in a way that spares the pain and suffering of our most vulnerable citizens. In order to prevent the worsening of our fiscal situation in the next few months, it is also critical to consider new revenue and thoughtful tax reform and ask voters to weigh in on what they want from their government and how to pay for it. It will take bold leadership to make the needed systemic changes, find additional resources and make targeted cuts to help heal California’s budget, stimulate our economy, create new jobs and restore luster to our great state.

SF Police Chief George Gascón named District Attorney

As we wait to see what sort of pain the Governor’s budget will bring, San Francisco made some news again yesterday.  Rather than appointing one of the political types that have been bandied about, Mayor/LG Newsom, always one for a bit of the dramatic, went for the unexpected by selecting SF Police Chief George Gascón.

Now, Gascón has been pretty popular in SF since he arrived about a year and a half ago, but his name was never really mentioned in connection with the DA gig.  There are a number of reasons for that.  While he did graduate from Western State University College of the Law, he has never really practiced law. Instead, he’s been a full-time cop, moving up the ladder in the LAPD (and serving as the Chief of Mesa,AZ).

Now, while he may not have the trial experience of a Kamala Harris, it is clear that the DA of a county like SF rarely actually litigates cases anymore.  Rather, the job is more strategic, and that is what Harris excelled in.  And so it is no surprise that he chose to praise that ability of his predecessor:

At his swearing-in ceremony a few hours later, Gascón said he planned to continue many of Harris’ programs.

There will be one distinct change, however. Unlike Harris, Gascón said he had no objection to seeking the death penalty in cases that warrant it.(SF Chronicle)

Of course, in a city like San Francisco, the death penalty is neither popular nor particularly easy to get.  Kamala Harris just didn’t have a whole lot of opportunities to attempt to get the death penalty even had she wanted to, and Gascón is going to learn a bit about those feelings as he enters his new found career in San Francisco politics.

Speaking of those political issues, no word on whether this presents any changed circumstances for other announced candidates.  Current DA Administrator Paul Henderson and Boalt Hall criminal justice expert David Onek have already announced their candidacies. Former prosecutor Jim Hammer is also rumored to be interested.  

SF Police Chief George Gascón

As we wait to see what sort of pain the Governor’s budget will bring, San Francisco made some news again yesterday.  Rather than appointing one of the political types that have been bandied about, Mayor/LG Newsom, always one for a bit of the dramatic, went for the unexpected by selecting SF Police Chief George Gascón.

Now, Gascón has been pretty popular in SF since he arrived about a year and a half ago, but his name was never really mentioned in connection with the DA gig.  There are a number of reasons for that.  While he did graduate from Western State University College of the Law, he has never really practiced law. Instead, he’s been a full-time cop, moving up the ladder in the LAPD (and serving as the Chief of Mesa,AZ).

Now, while he may not have the trial experience of a Kamala Harris, it is clear that the DA of a county like SF rarely actually litigates cases anymore.  Rather, the job is more strategic, and that is what Harris excelled in.  And so it is no surprise that he chose to praise that ability of his predecessor:

At his swearing-in ceremony a few hours later, Gascón said he planned to continue many of Harris’ programs.

There will be one distinct change, however. Unlike Harris, Gascón said he had no objection to seeking the death penalty in cases that warrant it.(SF Chronicle)

Of course, in a city like San Francisco, the death penalty is neither popular nor particularly easy to get.  Kamala Harris just didn’t have a whole lot of opportunities to attempt to get the death penalty even had she wanted to, and Gascón is going to learn a bit about those feelings as he enters his new found career in San Francisco politics.

Speaking of those political issues, no word on whether this presents any changed circumstances for other announced candidates.  Current DA Administrator Paul Henderson and Boalt Hall criminal justice expert David Onek have already announced their candidacies. Former prosecutor Jim Hammer is also rumored to be interested.  

Ed Lee to Be San Francisco’s Interim Mayor

PhotobucketJust a few minutes ago, City Administrator Ed Lee was selected as Interim Mayor for soon to depart (?) Gavin Newsom.

City Supervisors selected City Administrator Ed Lee as interim mayor, putting an end to a long and agonizing debate over who will replace outgoing Mayor Gavin Newsom.

While away in Hong Kong, Lee has been the center of media attention and political discussion since Tuesday when his name emerged as the leading candidate for interim mayor. (SF Weekly Blog)

The vote went down at 10-1, with outgoing D6 supervisor Chris Daly being the lone dissenter.  Of that, Daly said:

I’ve seen go along to get along. If you want to do more than that, if you think there’s a fundamental problem with the way things are in this world, then go along to get along doesn’t do it. ([SFBG I’ve seen go along to get along. If you want to do more than that, if you think there’s a fundamental problem with the way things are in this world, then go along to get along doesn’t do it.”])

In the end, a strong show of support organized by Chinatown power broker Rose Pak and former Mayor Willie Brown pushed this historic mayor over the top.  Lee will become the first Asian-American Mayor of San Francisco, and will not be running for re-election.  Apparently, part of the deal was that Lee would retain much of Newsom’s staff for the duration of the term.

Not much is known about Lee, but he is said to be personally close with most of the supervisors.  His politics are unclear, but one can expect a pretty steady hand from Newsom’s administration.  

Norquistians Put Ideological Fealty Above Democracy and the Middle Class

You know how we are going to need to cut into our core expenditures next year unless we get some additional revenue?  This seems to be Gov. Brown’s intentions, but to do that, he needs a 2/3 vote in each house.  Of course, that means that he needs some Republican votes.

Well, “Americans for Tax Reform” aka Grover Norquist’s group that intends to drown the government in the proverbial bath tub, has no intention of not creating a feces laden storm if any of the Republican legislators break their pledge to him.

The national anti-tax group Americans for Tax Reform will e-mail and fax letters tomorrow to California legislators who signed its no-tax pledge, warning them the group will consider any vote to put tax extension measures on the ballot a violation of that pledge, said the group’s state affairs director Patrick Gleason. … “This is to make clear that putting before a vote a measure to extend the taxes that Brown has proposed would violate the pledge,” Gleason said. “We count that as an assist. It’s not a direct score, but it’s an assist.” (Capitol Alert)

Instead, Mr. Gleason would like to see not only the government, but the entire middle class drowned in the process.  A cuts only budget would bring the wrecking ball to our K-12 system, and shut down many social services.  In a very real sense, the fate of California’s middle class is on the line.

At a juncture like this, in a state like California where the plebiscite has become King, a vote of the people seems to make the most sense.  If the people really loathe taxes, and Grover and the gang are representing the wishes of California, shouldn’t a vote be the best thing for everybody.  After all, if the taxes were defeated, it would really signal to all the world that Californians favor short-term self interest over what was once called the “California Dream.”

Of course, the other side of the coin would be that California would approve taxing ourselves, as our neighbors to the north did last year.  

If we are going to have a system dominated by a slew of ballot initiatives, we need to give the people the vote on the very future of the Middle Class.  To do any less would be to thwart democracy for only the grand purpose of political expediency.

San Francisco’s Evening That Brought Back Donkey Kong

We are about to witness the biggest fumble in the history of progressive politics in San Francisco and the blame rests squarely on the shoulders of David Chiu. I will haunt you. I will politically haunt you for the biggest fumble in history. It’s on, like Donkey Kong.”

– Supervisor Chris Daly, January 4, 2011 (Beyond Chron)

And thus the phrase “It’s on like Donkey Kong” entered the San Francisco political lexicon.  The whole story is somewhat (well, vastly) more complex.  But let me outline what I’ve learned while being away, and the timeline as I see it. KQED and the SF Appeal have good wrap-ups.

1) The current Board, which leaves office on Saturday, tried to pass a declaration that the Mayor has left his job already, that he should have been inaugurated, and the procedure of a technical inauguration doesn’t matter.  They then pushed for the Sheriff Mike Henessey, who is pretty universally respected.  However, being that this process is more about personal power politics than respect, things didn’t go so smoothly.  Henessey was only able to get 5 votes, rather than the required 6.  

2) Bevan Dufty and Sophie Maxwell went to a closed-door meeting with Newsom, and thereby reversed their previous votes against City Administrator Ed Lee, and suddenly, the little known Lee had 7 votes.  This includes the support of Eric Mar, one of the core bloc of progressive votes on the Board.

3) The Board was recessed after several Supervisors objected to the fact that they had neither spoken to Lee nor had the opportunity to talk to him, as he is currently in Hong Kong.

4) When the Board came back, that’s when we get Daly’s above quote about haunting Board President David Chiu’s career. The episode, along with the fact that Lee is out of the country, were enough to get the vote delayed until Friday.

5) Oh, and as an added bonus, the incoming Board can change the interim Mayor at their discretion, so it is all seems a bit temporary.

It seems clear that Lee is willing to take the job, as long as he can get his old job back once the new Mayor is elected in November. A deal seems to be in place to retain most of Newsom’s staff in a possible Lee administration.  Lee’s connections to Rose Pak (a Chinatown powerbroker) seem to tilt the balance of power in his direction, with her ties to both David Chiu and incoming D6 supervisor Jane Kim.  The rumored other leg of this deal is the possible appointment of Chiu to the now vacant District Attorney’s post that AG Kamala Harris recently left.

This works on many levels for Newsom. First, it gets a relative moderate to keep the seat warm until November, which was really Newsom’s main goal.  But as an added bonus, Ed Lee becomes the first Asian-American Mayor of San Francisco, and takes that potential honor away from Sen. Leland Yee.

But, being that Maxwell joined the 5 member progressive core to stall the vote until Friday, there is a lot of wiggle room here.  The SFBG’s Tim Redmond sees the big problem with Lee being that we just don’t really know where he stands. Perhaps more information about that comes out today and tomorrow in time for the Friday vote, or perhaps this is all pushed to the new Board. Either way, this just seems to be San Francisco political theater taken to a new level.

Inauguration Day

I’m heading up to Sacramento today to see the inauguration of Attorney General Kamala Harris. Working on the campaign for well over a year, it is the culmination of a lot of hard work. Truthfully, at some level, it hasn’t really sunk in, so this will be a somewhat dramatic experience.  However, I know she will do an absolutely amazing job for the State of California.

But, you know, there are other things going on today as well.  The changing of the guard from the worst governor ever back to the more competent Jerry Brown will be a huge positive for the state, and perhaps we can start to recover from the shock doctrining of our Schwarzenegger years.  

The rest of the Democratic slate, save Gavin Newsom, will also be inaugurated today. So, that means Tom Torlakson, Bill Lockyer, John Chiang, Dave Jones, Debra Bowen and the above mentioned Kamala Harris will also be inaugurated. And with Dave Jones joining John Chiang, we get our second Carl Sandburg High School (Orland Park, IL) alum in statewide office.  What are the odds?

John Laird to become Natural Resources Chief

This is good news:

Gov.-elect Jerry Brown is expected to appoint former Santa Cruz legislator John Laird head of the state Natural Resources Agency, sources said Saturday — a role that will give the environmental advocate a powerful voice in oversight of logging, fishing, farming, parks and water policies. (Bay Area News Group)

While right-wing extremists and other non-relevant “leaders” like Ron Nehring complain about Laird’s record, it is really hard to argue.  He has been a leader on environmental issues, and fought for issues that the state cares about. At the same time, he has worked as Assembly Budget Chair to balance the budget, and understands the fiscal side of the issues.

It’s hard to think of a better appointment for the Director of Natural Resources than John Laird, if indeed that happens next week.

Gavin to Take His Time in San Francisco

I’ll admit, San Francisco is a pretty hard city to leave.  On several occasions, I’ve made the decision to stay in town.  Yet, then again, I didn’t run for statewide office, while Gavin Newsom did.  However, while all of the other statewide officers are being sworn in on Monday, he is going to wait until he’s good and ready:

Mayor Gavin Newsom left Tuesday morning with wife Jennifer and daughter Montana to Los Cabos, Mexico, and will return from vacation Saturday. But he won’t spend the weekend packing up for Sacramento – looks like he’ll be here well beyond his lieutenant governor’s Monday start date.

“He’s going to leave at some point,” assured Newsom’s spokesman, Tony Winnicker. “He will assume the office of lieutenant governor in January.”

Of course, there’s the big reason that he wants the new Board of Supervisors, to be sworn in Jan. 8, to pick his replacement. But there are also a lot of loose ends to tie up – and Newsom, busy burnishing his legacy, wants full credit. {SF Gate)

Of course, some of those loose ends are in fact something of a big deal.  However, I leave up to your judgment on whether it is a good idea or not to just cool your heels, and let the state linger.  To me, it seems a bit bizarre. After all, he fought for the past couple of years to get out of SF for Sacramento, but now he can’t seem to quit us.

As an aside, but the CW has the Mayor’s race down to Board President David Chiu and SFPUC General Manager Ed Harrington at this point. I’m not entirely convinced that this delay really changes the calculus all that much, but there will likely be some machinations that could end up suprising the entire political community in San Francisco.  Perhaps, Mayor Newsom has some play left up his sleeve worthy of the Triple Play.

Building Sale is Blocked

Well, and the ball is officially in the Governor (Once and Future) Jerry Brown’s court.  In a brief, one sentence ruling, the California Supreme Court (well, actually some appellate justices sitting in for the Supreme Court), left the stay from the lower court in place.

“The petition for writ of mandate and request for immediate relief from stay are denied.” (Document here

So, Governor Schwarzenegger will now have to see how Jerry Brown feels about this particular gimmick. It is worth pointing out that Brown refused to defend these sales, take of that what you will.