All posts by wes

Stimulus Miracles

According to Joe Romm at Climate Progress, the compromise version of the Stimulus package dropped some $50 Billion in pork for the nuclear power industry.  If that is where they got their savings, let’s give a big Hurrah.

Of course, you will need to call an ambulance as Chuck Devore has a fit of apoplexy over this.  

Of all of the things that some legislators tried to cram into the stimulus package, they got the Green stuff about as wrong as coal.  Why they would cut back on doing energy improvements to Federal Buildings… something that has a positive payback for years and then try to cram a big help for nuclear into this is beyond me.  These are the reasons people know think that they are all in the pay of the corporations.

This will, however, become a Devore issue against Boxer, assuming that someone with more stature than Devore doesn’t step into the race.  Maybe Devore thinks that his role in life is to go once more into the breach for his party.  But, unlike Henry V, I doubt that he will have much success. Still, that candidacy will keep the issue alive for a long time.  

May the Schwarz be with you.

I don’t have much to say other than to call attention to a post today by San Francisco’s Stephen Smoliar at his blog site: The Rehearsal Studio.

Smoliar is concerned with the manner in which Scholastic Magazine is merchandising Harry Potter as part of it’s push into support of our education system.  This is something that we need to keep watching very carefully as the budget crisis in Sacramento forces schools to look for every more insidious creative means to secure additional funding.      

Wither the budget when Cal Ag dries up?

I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that the entire State Legislature is in need a new cerbral cortex.  They are not thinking straight.  We are in a budget crisis and can come to no agreement between Democrats who are afraid that the unions will recall them and Republicans who are afraid that they will be booted out of the party if they vote for a new tax.

Personally, I would rather listen to a scientist like Dr. Chu.  At least when he speaks you have more of a chance to hear a fact rather than some BS designed to make you think that the legislature is on your side.  

This comment from Dr. Chu, as reported in the LA Times, is the only one that I have seen telling the truth about the future of California.

‘We’re looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California,’ Steven Chu says.

 

Start considering that in terms of budget impact.  Loss of value of farmland hitting real estate taxes, again.  Loss of the biggest industry in California and it’s sale tax revenues.  Loss of a major workforce and the implication on income taxes.

One indicator of what California may expect is to watch what is happening in Australia and Argentina.  Argentina’s wheat crop is off by over 30% from last year.  The story in Australia is worse.

Drought in Australia’s main food growing region of the Murray-Darling river system continues, with water stores near record lows despite recent rains, the head of the government’s oversight body for the system said on Wednesday.

The impact on irrigated crops is particularly bad.

The drought has already wiped more than A$20 billion from the $1 trillion economy since 2002. It is the worst in 117 years of record-keeping, with 80 percent of eucalyptus trees already dead or stressed in the Murray-Darling region

 If this is California’s future, we don’t have the right people sitting in Sacramento.

Let’s face the facts.  These will seem to be the good old days before I die and I am already drawing social security.  We have a governor who wants to build more dams… for what?  We have a State Senate Natural Resources and Water committee holding a hearing in Santa Monica on Friday where they will discuss “Improving Water Conservation and Management in Southern California: Successes and Opportunities”.  Actually, it reads more like Fran Pavley wanting to show the local folks that she is on the job.  

This year will be particularly challenging. Consecutive record-dry winters have seriously diminished available water supply throughout the state. Locally, we may soon be facing severe restrictions on water use. But it is hard to explain to our citizens the necessity for mandatory water rationing, when there are less disruptive means to meet our water needs.

What the good Senator seems not to realize is that there is not going to be enough years with enough rain to ease our way through.

All of this gamesmanship in Sacramento is rather like the Clippers playing the GS Warriors.  Two losers trying not to lose.  So, how do we build a budget for this scenario?  I don’t think it is possible.  

Is AB 32 all we get? Nothing from Boxer.

It seems as if AB 32 is all we are going to have to deal with climate change.  That is perhaps the single biggest failure of our generation.

The connections between global warming and our energy policy are well known and only the stubbornest Republicans hold on to the Gospel according to Senator Inhofe. After Secretary Chu says that energy is “the defining issue of our time” you expect something to happen.  When Barbara Boxer replaced Inhofe as the Chair of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, most of us who understand ecology greeted the change with a sigh of relief.  Now, even Boxer is saying that we will get no legislation on climate change in 2009.  At least those words were used in her press conference yesterday as reported by Joe Robb at Climate Progress.  

I am not sure that we can afford to wait that long.  The next meeting of the IPPC committee is in December in Copenhagen.  If the US Senate does not have it’s act together by then, the rest of the world is not going to take anything we say very seriously.  I would think that not even Chuck “Nukes are Nice” Devore could do less.  Boxer appears to have no sense of urgency on this.

Maybe she ought to have a long sit down talk with James Hansen. I would probably help them both. I know that Hansen has testified to her committee before. I also know that his public pronouncements have been alarmist, but have consistently under-estimated the rate at which our environment is changing.

At least, Boxer announced her

Principles for Global Warming Legislation
at the press conference. While they sound good, there are totally without any substantive implementation, and that leaves us with AB 32.

Both AB 32 and Boxer’s Principles are flawed in that they rely on the magic of the market to provide the mechanism for controlling emissions.  This is the same thinking that gave us derivatives based on mortgage backed securities.  This is the same mechanism that is failing to produce the expected change in the EU because companies cheat and regulators don’t regulate.

This is worth more discussion, which I will do in a series of posts this week.  Let it suffice to say that I am once again disappointed in the fact that Boxer fails to live up to her reputation as a champion of the environment.  

Weather or Climate: California’s Future at stake.

There is a lot of speculation about the weather.  We tend to think of the weather as being cyclical.  Summer / winter. If you live in the Southwest, rain / drought.  The rain that we are having this week removed the possibility that this will be the driest January on record, but the fact remains that the drought conditions from the past two years are still with us. Most of the rain soaked into the ground and there was little runoff.

Four California newspapers remind their readers just what this all means.

More beneath the fold…

Four California newspapers have stories yesterday or today on the rain and what it does not mean.

Mike Taugher, environmental reporter for the Contra Costa Times writes: Rain not enough to fix water woes

Depleted reservoirs, a snowpack that still is expected to be about one-third lower than average after the clouds blow away and a raft of new water rules meant to revive collapsing fish populations are combining to severely pinch water supplies.

The nation’s largest irrigation district, the 600,000-acre Westlands Water District, told growers this week it expected to get zero Delta water this year, something that has never happened before.

 This theme was echoed in the other stories.

The Visalia Times-Delta headlines it as an economic problem with no immediate solution. Water shortage could cost 40,000 ag jobs, $1.15b in income. At least we know the scope.

The Fresno Bee also covers the agricultural impact. Forecast dry for West Valley: Growers could see no federal water deliveries if storms don’t come.

These newspapers all treat our current rain as a weather event, part of the normal patterns and predictable.  This just happens to be a year when La Niña effects control the rain.

The Merced Sun-Star points out the decisions that we need to make about using the water that we have. Water: Cities, agriculture compete for precious, dwindling resource

Ever-expanding cities in Merced County — still minor users in the broader picture — are increasingly competing for water with farmers and the environment. This urban-rural-ecological division wouldn’t be as much of an issue if climate change wasn’t bearing down on the age-old weather pattern people have come to expect.

Less rain in the future will mean less water for more people, crops and local ecosystems.

In preparation for this looming shift, state and federal authorities are trying to lessen the effects of both climate change and its human causes.

But local land use, development and their impacts on water planning comprise another issue. Today, a collection of interests compete over the same sources of water. The success or failure of local preparations for the impending water crisis will make all the difference.

Only the Merced Sun-Star gets to the real problem. Given the reality that the climate change is happening all around us, it is more likely than not that this year’s rainfall will be the norm for future years.  The land use / agricultural impact of such drastic change is still not being considered; not by the media, defintely not by our politicians.

Cross posted from California Greening.  

Big plans sinking

For years, one of the big projects for Mayor Newsom was the re-development of Treasure Island.  It was important enough, or excuse enough, to fire Tony Hall.  The choice of a project leader for that site has been one political nightmare after another. Now, it appears that the whole thing may have been a good idea in the wrong place.  

There is this little problem with the fact that the oceans and the atmosphere are both warming.  When water warms, it expands and the sea level rise is like a Mavericks wave about to hit. Now, they are talking about having to truck in more land fill do deal with a 3 ft rise in sea level forecast within 70 years.  Wonder what happens when that is not enough.

I guess that is what happens when developers and politicians get together.  They get swamped with reality. Or is this just another Newsom bad judgment?

Now, I want some one to tell me one more time why it is too expensive to solve global warming now.  The real costs of avoidance are beginning to hit and, like a wave approaching shore, they will only get higher.  

Be prepared for the worst, because it is coming

I believe that most of those who comment on the budget crisis are missing the real issues.

  • Yes, the Republicans gleefully chant their No New Taxes mantra while our government loses its ability to function.
  • Yes, the media fetish for balance results in a Rodney King answer to a reality that they don’t want to face.
  • Yes, the Democratic leadership of the legislature has not been willing to make the structural adjustments to the budget that are required.
  • Yes, it seems that everyone is putting out their own self-serving press releases which sound like the Gov’s SoS… everyone needs to change but me.  AFSCME’s Make America Happen vid begins with FDR’s salient point about a generation of which much will be expected. I did  not hear what AFSCME is willing to contribute.

 

However, two additional considerations are not being talked about very much.

  1. The State of California has significant financial obligations based on contractual obligations to bond holders, contractors and employees that are all fixed.  They are locked in and no one wants to see their own segment cut.  The pressure here is to continue a all of the spending with no cuts.  The easiest cuts would be to education since the employee obligation is mostly held by local school districts.  Prop 98 has a built in assumption of continued growth: of General Fund revenues and of personal income.  None of these are true for the present time. Yet, with approx. 50% of State spending going for education it is impossible to deal with the overall fiscal problem if education is off the table. California Young Democrats call for holding to the Master Plan for Higher Education.  The solution is not whether cuts will be made, but what is being cut.  Do we use a sledge hammer or a scalpel?  
  2. The likelihood that the Obama stimulus package will bring about positive economic change is pretty low.  While the media calls this a massive Keynsian infusion of spending, the current plan leaves out one of the primary elements of a true Keynsian prescription, a rebalancing of income.  The discussion at the blog of UCLA Environmental Economist Matthew Kahn, in particular the comments of Steve Loebs, makes this very clear.

The California Budget’s Economic Assumptions are probably far too optimistic.  

Personal income is projected to grow 2 percent in 2009, 2.1 percent in 2010, and 4.6 percent in 2011, as compared to 3.7 percent in 2008. Nonfarm payroll employment is forecast to fall by 1.6 percent in 2009 and 0.5 percent in 2010, and grow 1.4 percent in 2011, as compared to a 0.6?percent decline in 2008. Source: Budget Economic Outlook

One implication for California is that the Republican stance regarding no new taxes must be shown for the fraud that it is.  California’s current tax system is becoming more regressive with each knee jerk attempt to solve immediate budget shortfall.

Democrats have shown a distaste for bringing this issue to the fore.  During the Gray Davis Recall election, Peter Camejo of the Green Party showed rather conclusively that there would be no budget problem if the upper 10% of the citizens of this state paid the same percentage of their income in taxes as the lowest 10%.  I think it has only gotten worse since then. That is what “getting along” brings you.

This is not a generation to which much more will be given but it is definitely one of which much more will be asked.  

Whose money is hiding behind Prop 8 lawsuit.

I learn a little every day.  Today, I had another reminder that when you dig through the muck, the slime rises to the top.  This item at rawstory ties Prop 8, the move to hide al donations from public purview, and the connection between a Christian Reconstructionist named Howard Ahmanson and a political consultant named Wayne Johnson.

 

Ahmanson seems hell bent for leather on trying to turn California into a Christian version of the Taliban ruled Afghanistan. He put almost $1 million into ProtectMarriage.com

Johnson is someone I researched during the 2006 CA-11 Congressional race when we got together to Say No To Pombo.  He has been Pombo’s political consultant in every race since day one. Well known for last minute dirty tricks, etc. it is not surprising to see that Johnson also controlled John Doolittle’s PAC and not provides the same service for Tom McClintock.

After reading this, I am so glad to have worked for McNerney.  

Schwarzie does it again

Schwarzenegger is so completely set on pushing through a peripheral canal that he will do almost anything to make it happen.  The latest is this letter to Obama asking that they modify or set aside environmental processes on infrastructure projects. See his letter on his own site. http://gov.ca.gov/index.php?/p…

The most recent plan for the peripheral canal says that they don’t need legislative approval and are not asking for a bond issue.  It looks like a backroom deal between the Gov and our two Senators… or at lest Feinstein… to pay for the canal out of infrastructure money and they can get going before Arnold leaves office without any environmental checks.

Of course, this is only our future he is dealing away. Thankfully, at least on Congressman, Jerry McNerney has come out saying that it is a Baaaaaaad idea. Glad I voted for him. http://www.house.gov/apps/list…

Thanks to progressive Democrats

Thanks to the work of Progressive Democrats, the Green Party’s Bruce Delgado won election as the Mayor of Marina.  For that, we Greens thank you.

BTW: according to KSBW Salinas last night, Monterey County had an 85% turnout.  

It is a bit of turn around.  I worked my ass off for McNerney in 2004 and in 2006.  The Republicans handed him re-election this year by fielding a real estate candidate so bad that even the National Board of Realtors put over $500 K into McNerney’s campaign.  

There are a lot of things that Greens and Progressive Democrats agreed on.  If you took the list of recommendations for ballot proposals, the one published on Calitics and the one published on the Green Party of CA site.  The only difference was on Prop 3. where the issue was very much that the money allocated by a previous measure for the same purposes had not yet been spent… $300 Million remaining.

But while this blog is fascinated by why your results were not what you expected, I am turning my attention to NOLA.  There, on Dec. 2, a corrupt Democratic Congressman named William Jefferson will begin his trial on Corruption charges.  Yesterday, Jefferson won a Democratic Primary runoff to keep his seat.  I have been told that his opponent, Helena Moreno, says that she will not support Jefferson.

The Green Party is fielding a candidate: Malik Rahim.  When Hurricane Katrina struck, the government could not keep the lights on. Rahim had electricity at his non-profit.  When the hospitals were flooded and patients were dying, Rahim kept a medical clinic open.  While Jefferson has been lining his own pockets… or stashing $90 K in his freezer… Rahim’s non-profit has built or refurbished 2,000 homes in New Orleans.

I would hope that Pelosi cuts Jefferson loose and lets him swing in the wind.  To do other than that would be to put party loyalty above principles and would tell me a lot more about Pelosi’s character.

I have started a full press to raise additional money for Rahim.  I guess that I am challenging readers of Calitics to put principle above party and help out Rahim.  At some point, I want to see a Democrats for Rahim Committee. There is one month left, to change America, to demonstrate that the old politics of cronyism is gone, that corruption is never again to be swept under the rugs of the ethics committee offices.