State faces another looming budget crisis

by Brian Leubitz

UPDATE: I’ve included video of Taylor’s press conference from John Myers’ twitter feed. Thanks John!  You can get the full press conference from the CalChannel here.



I’ve been a little quiet around here, as I was more than a bit busy with the election and then trying to recover from said election.  And Sacramento was hardly hopping either, just a few press conferences here and there.  However, Leg Analyst Mac Taylor (and sometimes Right-leaning Budget Warrior) has been on the grim watch on our state finances along with Finance Director Ana Matasantos.  And grim is really the best adjective for the situation:

The report by the Legislative Analyst’s Office says the state faces a budget deficit in the current fiscal year largely because it will collect only $300 million of $4 billion that Gov. Jerry Brown and the Legislature added to the budget just days before it was approved in June. Critics had called the sudden infusion of projected revenue “phantom money” that was conjured to avoid deeper spending cuts.

The report says California also faces a budget deficit in the 2012-13 fiscal year of $13 billion.(SF Chronicle)

I’m not sure how bright I can highlight this situation, but we are steamrolling towards another budget crisis.  And guess what, there is so little left to cut, there will be no other choice to cut deeper into some already devestated state services.  Of course, much of that could be avoided with a bit of reasonableness from the other side of the aisle, but let’s be realistic here. Unless somehow four Republican legislators get a Dickensian like visit from beyond, do we really think that is going to happen?

Now, the ultimate determination will be made by Matasantos by December 15, but given that relatively few of those $4Billion have come in, it is tough to imagine that she will have much choice. The $4 Billion will hit education particularly hard, with the possibility of eliminating 7 school days from the year. As David Dayen points out, the threat of a $13B series of cuts threatens to make ridiculously small the few parts of President Obama’s jobs package that can pass Congress. $1 Billion in veterans benefits will do little to combat the biggest of the 50 Little Hoovers here in California.

It is hard to really blame Gov. Brown for much here, other than his rosy expectations. The Right will take the usual attack on Democrats of being too close to labor, but even if he totally decimated pensions and laid off huge portions of the state public employees, we still wouldn’t get near dealing with the situation.  But the fact remains that the $4 Billion that has failed to show was put in the budget because the cuts without them would have been unbearable.

So California, meet the dystopic future, where cutting K-12 school days and rocketing higher education fees are the best option.

Gov. Brown vetoes high percentage of bills.

by Brian Leubitz

Every year, legislators from each house get a certain number of bills they can carry. It varies from year to year, depending on leadership, but can vary from as little as 10 to well more than double that number.  Every year, legislators basically go shopping for bill ideas. Some of them come in through the normal constituent relationships. Others from lobbyists of sponsoring organizations, and well, various other sources.

The interesting part of this is that legislators typically want to get their total up to the line.  Whether that is to make it appear that they have a lot of accomplishments, or to look busy is a matter of perspective.  However, every year we get a slew of bills at the end of session, many very important. Others, well, less so.

Gov. Brown prefers a less is more approach, and when it has come to vetoing bills that have come across his desk during this bill frenzy, it has shown.

From mid-September to late Sunday night, Brown signed 466 bills and vetoed 97, his office said.

Brown’s veto rate for the year overall was slightly lower, at about 14 percent. In the first year of his third term, Brown signed 760 bills, vetoed 128 and allowed one bill to become law without his signature, his office said. (SacBee)

Now, the 17.2% veto rate isn’t astronomical, as it is far lower than Gov. Schwarzenegger’s rate. However, given that his party is in control of the Legislature, you would expect that number to be slightly lower. But, again…less is more in Jerry’s world.

There were a few bills on the recent action pile that are worth a bit of note.  Sen. Juan Vargas’ bill against supercenters, SB 469, got the veto stamp.  The bill would have required supercenter developers to conduct an economic impact report to disclose impacts upon local economies prior to being approved to build in a local jurisdiction.  But, with the false notion that we don’t want to slow Wal-Mart from “creating jobs”, nobody has really sat back and thought of the real economic toll on the economy.  And apparently, it won’t be happening in 2012 either.

Brown also vetoed a bill regulating “debit card paychecks”.  These debit cards are targeted at low income workers and carry some pretty onerous fees, as part of the high cost of being poor.  But banks generally get their way when their lobbyists are involved, and they were able to get Gov. Brown to kill the bill while saying that he wants to work with the institutions and the Legislature to find a “compromise” for the debit cards.

Finally, in case you didn’t hear, the Governor signed the shark finning ban, at least one bill that environmentalists and progressives could count as an accomplishment.

Gov. Brown vetoes bill that would allow childcare workers to organize and a local VLF

by Brian Leubitz

For over thirty years, Jerry Brown has professed fealty to the canoe theory of politics, that is paddle a little to the left, a little to the right.  Well, there was that We the People period, but we’ll leave that out of the story for now.

Jerry can do some really amazing things, stand up and fight for struggling Californians.  And then he does something like vetoing farmworker card check.  Well, he had another one of those moments:

In a major blow to organized labor, Gov. Jerry Brown vetoed legislation today that would have let unions organize child-care providers who work out of the home.

“Today California, like the nation itself, is facing huge budget challenges,” Brown wrote in a veto message. “Given that reality, I am reluctant to embark on a program of this magnitude and potential cost.”(SacBee)

It was a banner day for that right oar, as he also vetoed legislation that would have changed automobile restrictions for a welfare recipients.  Critically he also vetoed legislation that would have allowed San Francisco to vote to reinstate the higher level of VLF (pre-Arnold).

This last veto is actually the biggest news of the bunch.  While it would have been a problematic situation on many levels, it would have allowed communities that want to tax themselves a pretty fair tax option.  I understand his reluctance, but given the wrestling matches he has had with the Republicans over the past 10 months, you would have hoped he would have seen the value in communities controlling more of their revenue destiny.

Three years before the election, Governor already faces scrutiny about his plans.

by Brian Leubitz

While Jerry Brown was busy over the weekend signing bills to ban synthetic marijuana and bar a San Francisco measure to ban circumcision, apparently people are pretty excited about replacing him.  Or perhaps more accurately, people are excited to talk about people who could replace him.

“I’ve extremely enjoyed my first year,” Brown said. “I find it — I don’t know if I’d call it exhilarating — but I find it quite engaging and interesting and fully worthy of my total involvement.”

There had been speculation when the now 73-year-old Brown was first elected to what actually amounted to a third term that he would not run again.

If he does decide to seek another term it would cause serious damage to any number of folks who want to be governor. (LA DN)

Of course, this came up in the context of an interview with CalBuzz a while back, though from their article, the question seemed to be directed more at how Brown was handling his first year back in the Horseshoe.  But, Sacramento being what it is, there are always people eyeing the top spot, and tons more willing to talk about people eyeing it.  From every statewide elected official to a the big city mayors, there will be attention on the 2014 race.

Did I mention that Brown has been in the office less than a year?  Welcome to the 24 hour news cycle.

Jerry talks anti-tax doctrinaires with CalBuzz.

by Brian Leubitz

The Republicans and the Democrats, at least in the venue I know best, California, have a very different relationship with their respective bases.  The Democrats raise money from their activist base, gets volunteers, and then generally ignores them.  The Republicans, well, it is a very different story.  Sure they get money and volunteers, but the tail wags the dog.  The right wing activists of the Republican party controls them.

As a long-time blogger, I suppose I have a bigger megaphone than most.  However, I have nowhere near the power (nor earning power) of Jon Fleischman, my right-wing counterpart at the FlashReport.  He says something, and all of a sudden, legislators are looking around to make sure that they didn’t cross him. Me, well, sometimes I get an “attaboy” when I am of some use, but let’s just say that Calitics isn’t lucrative, and that nobody is calling me a horseman of anything but the cartoon variety http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dj0Q…

So, it is interesting, that, in an interview with CalBuzz, Governor Brown called out the Republican base as the proverbial tale wagging the Republican party.

Invoking the infamous symbols of Conquest, War, Famine and Death from the Book of Revelation, the former seminarian identified the anti-tax fearsome foursome to whom the Republicans submit as 1) DC anti-tax crusader Grover Norquist; 2) Jon Coupal of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association; 3) LA radio spewers John Kobylt and Ken Champiou and 4) FlashReport, GOP operative Jon Fleischman’s right-wing blog.

“It’s emotionally quite wrenching for any of the Republicans to embrace anything opposed by the Four Horsemen of the Tax Apocalypse,” Gov. Gandalf told Calbuzz. “If that group, or even maybe any one or two of them, invoke the dreaded ‘t’ word, they do cower.”

Of course, this is really nothing new.  If you’ve taken a bit of time to really consider the California right-wing over the past two decades, it doesn’t take a PhD in political science to see their slide from pragmatic dealmakers to ideological extremists.  Jerry likely knew this before he retook the Horseshoe, but perhaps the breadth and depth of this takeover took him by surprise.

To be honest, in many ways, the right-wing has more power over the Democratic Party than the left-wing base.  Under the 2/3 rule, revenue legislation must be tailored to hold all of the conservative Democrats. Nobody can take a walk, even if we did have the 2/3 Democratic chambers that we have been lusting after for so long.

Fleischman has a post today excoriating former Senate minority leader Dave Cogdill for agreeing to temporary sales tax increases.  He states, and perhaps daydreams, of what California would have looked like if we had a 2011 budget in 2009.  And the thing is for Fleischman, perhaps the world may have looked slightly better.

But that is only if you are doing well.  After all, California (and the US in general) is a great place for those who are doing well financially.  But ask those Californians who are alive today because they got a helping hand from state services, and you would see a very different picture of that 2009 vs 2011 budget debate.

Of course, the fact that the Rich need the state is hardly reported. But California without the economic engines that are the UCs, CSUs and the community colleges is a markedly different (and worse off) state.  A California without the public infrastructure is a worse off state.  We all need the public goods that only the state can provide efficiently. Denying that might be convenient for the Right, but it is devastating for California.

Revamped feedback form offers quick way of marking your opinion.

by Brian Leubitz

Gov. Brown isn’t necessarily the most wired Governor among the 50 states, but his Administration hasn’t been bad at getting the word out online.  The Governor’s social media sites are regularly updated, and they make an effort to get content out there.  

And now they have updated their contact page.  You can let them know your feelings on pretty much any issue, or the pending legislation on his desk by going to this form.

So, you know, go tell him how you feel, and, perhaps, that you’d prefer not to sing the blues.

Governor makes quip, Democratic Legislators get nervous

by Brian Leubitz

Well, we’ve completed a full legislative session with a Democratic governor, so folks had great hope that we could finally get some legislation that had gone to die on Governor Schwarzenegger’s desk might stand a chance with Governor Brown.

But Jerry Brown, ever the mercurial sort, had some bad news for those legislators and groups with legislation landing on his desk: get ready to sing the “veto blues”:

“I’m going to veto a lot of bills over the next 30 days,” Brown told reporters after an event to reward schools with high physical fitness achievements.

“So I have to say to some, fasten your seat belt cause this is going to be a rough ride. They’ve given me 600 bills and there’s not 600 problems that we need those solutions for,” he said. …

The governor declined to say whether he would sign or veto specific bills, but he added, “You’ll hear soon enough. I think they’ll be playing the veto blues before we’re finished.” (SF Gate)

While he was coy about specific bills he did say that his response to the state aid for the “dreamers”, students who were brought to California by their parents without documents, but graduated from California high schools, was to consider the song “California Dreaming” by the Mamas and Papas.  

Get ready for a very interesting 30 days.

(I’ll be on KPFK at 8:40 Tuesday morning to talk about HJTA and the GOP. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

Anti-Tax organization makes CA GOP a wholly-owned subsidiary

by Brian Leubitz

It won’t be saying anything new about my opinions on Prop 13 today.  No, my loathing for an initiative that set the state, and the nation really, on a drug binge of selfishness and greed has not changed.  The sad state of the current generation of American voters, who have become the first Americans to cast off concerns for their children or the next generation at all, in search of a few extra bucks in their BofA statements hasn’t changed.

No, this is more about the state of the legacy of Howard Jarvis.  He has succeeded in a way that would probably even shock him.  With the 2/3 majority, his organization, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association can now wield an unprecedented level of authority.  In fact, recent events lead George Skelton to point the finger for the death of Gov. Brown’s jobs tax reform on HJTA and their new leader, Jon Coupal:

Brown and his advisors kept hearing from Republican senators that they sort of liked the governor’s proposal – thought it basically good policy – but wouldn’t sign on unless Coupal did.

“If Jarvis gives us a pass, we’ll be there,” is how one Brown intimate described the Republican feedback. “Coupal was the entryway.”

*** **** ***

Under Brown’s proposal, the assemblyman (Fletcher) added, “The people who stood to benefit were the working poor and small businesses, and they don’t have a powerful lobby. We were taking on some very powerful interests.”

In the end, the most powerful interest was the tobacco lobby. Cigarette companies prosper greatly from the current loophole. Their lobbyists swarmed all over legislators during the session’s final two days.

“It’s unbelievable,” Brown said in a Friday night statement, “that so many politicians in Sacramento would choose to protect cigarette makers and out-of-state corporations to the detriment of California jobs.” (LA Times)

But, alas, the cigarette companies have a lot of sway with both HJTA and with the GOP. Of course the order of those two organizations seems a little meaningless, as Republican legislators are now saying that they have to get approval from one dude with a membership list and a blog.

In the end, this all leads back to the stink of money.  Corporations do what they have to do to save money, and that means fighting for tax breaks on the back of the middle class.  But there once was a day that we could dream of legislators who could stand up to moneyed interest.  However in the day of multi-million dollar legislative races and the constant efforts to move up and over, perhaps that is too much to ask.

In looooong session, Jerry Brown is unable to muster 2 GOP votes

by Brian Leubitz

If you are like me, and follow a lot of Capitol reporters on twitter, you will see a slew of tweets ending around 2AM last night.  That would be because that is when the Senate finally closed its day and finished up this Legislative session.

But through all that, Brown’s big last-minute goal went down in the Senate:

Gov. Jerry Brown’s corporate tax package failed to clear the state Senate in the final hours of the legislative session.

The plan, contained in Senate Bill 116, fell five votes short of passage, by a final tally of 22-15.

The Democratic governor had proposed changing a corporate tax formula to require that multi-state companies calculate their tax liability based on the portion of sales in California. The roughly $1 billion expected to be raised annually through the change, mostly from out-of-state companies, would have been directed to specific tax breaks, including a sales tax exemption on manufacturing equipment. (SacBee)

The Governor wasn’t even able to hold all the Democrats and one (I’m trying to figure out who) actually voted no.  The question now for Brown is how he gets anything done with a Republican minority that understands their one (and only) power to block revenue legislation.  But, of course, even if the Senate is 2/3 Democrats next year, we now know that is no guarantee of anything.