( – promoted by David Dayen)

Man, where did I come up with a title like that?

John Doolittle will address the media at 10:30 am about his intentions.  Regardless of what he decides to do, I don’t think it’s a controversial statement that the best candidate we have running as a challenger for Congress in California this year is Charlie Brown.  He has the candidate experience, the most assured stance on the issues, and the money, but most important he has the right perspective, by not waiting until 2009 to lead but doing it every single day.  The donation of a percentage of his fundraising to aid the care of our veterans is one of the more inspired displays of leadership I’ve seen out of someone running for political office.  So let’s not forget that, no matter what happens.

UPDATE by Brian: The Bee is now reporting that the presser is to announce his retirement at the end of his current term.

UPDATE II: With Doolittle out, the rumors have him selected former Rep. Rico Oller to be the GOP nominee.  Given Doolittle’s need to retire to avoid being slaughtered in the district, why should we expect his endorsement to carry any weight?  We know that this will be a wild primary on the Republican side.  Eric Egland and 2006 Doolittle Mike Holmes are already in, and State Assemblyman Ted Gaines and possibly even former Rep. Doug Ose could follow.  This will be a bloody primary and I don’t think anyone will be anointed.  Meanwhile, Charlie Brown keeps raising money and meeting the voters.  You can give a donation today at our ActBlue page if you like.

UPDATE III: Charlie Brown’s statement:

Roseville:  In response to today’s announcement that Representative John Doolittle will not seek re-election, CD4 Congressional Candidate and Retired Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown issued the following statement:

“I believe John did the right thing today for his family, for the 4th District and for America .  Now is the time to unite as Americans, heal our wounds and move forward to solve the many difficult challenges we face both here in CD4, and across the country we love.”

The Hill is reporting that friends and colleagues – including former Rep. Richard Pombo – are urging John Doolittle to resign.

Republican operatives fear that if Doolittle does not retire at the end of this Congress and survives what would be a bruising GOP primary, they will lose the nine-term lawmaker’s seat. Doolittle is under an ethics cloud, having had his Virginia house investigated by the FBI last year. Several prominent Republicans are seeking to defeat him in the primary.

According to three well-placed Republican sources, former Rep. Richard Pombo (R-Calif.) – who lost his seat amid ethics allegations – has called on longtime friend Doolittle to not seek reelection in the interest of keeping the district a GOP stronghold. In the last Congress, Pombo was a panel chairman while Doolittle was a member of GOP leadership.

This suggests that the decision has not yet been made by Doolittle, but that the GOP establishment has a definite interest in telling everybody that he’s decided to resign to force the issue.  Of course, California Republicans have been calling on Doolittle to be a good soldier and step down for quite a while, so it’s unclear how much of this is new news.  It remains to be seen what will happen, and I’ll wait to see what the man himself will say.

This is big news.  Roll Call’s articles require subscription, but I’ll link to DKos diarist (and friend of Calitics) RandySF’s description.  Basically Chris Van Hollen is announcing that the DCCC, the campaign arm for House Democrats, will be targeting 40 seats to start in the 2008 election, 31 of them held by Republican incumbents and 9 of them open seats.  The amazing thing is that 3 of those seats are here in California.  On the top 40 list for the D-Trip are:

CA-04 (John Doolittle)

CA-26 (David Dreier)

CA-50 (Brian Bilbray)

What this means is that the DCCC will support financially challengers to those seats, and encourage Democratic donors to do the same.  Now, the D-Trip has a mixed record in getting involved in Congressional races.  In 2006 some of the seats they contested most strongly were lost at the expense of some strong progressive challengers who were beat by a mere handful of votes, and could have used the money.  But looking at the list, I perceive a shift from Rahm Emanuel’s style to Chris Van Hollen.  I think Van Hollen is rewarding strong candidates who have a chance to win.  Netroots-endorsed candidates like Linda Stender, Darcy Burner, Gary Trauner, Dan Maffei, Eric Massa and Larry Kissell are on the list.  So I am hopeful that this is not the case of a push to get a bunch of Bush Dogs into office.

What this also shows is the faith in California to have some competitive targets in 2008.  The partisan gerrymander is supposed to negate any attempt at flipping seats out here, but times have changed.  John Doolittle is so ethically compromised that his idea of good news these days is believing his case will be delayed by a year while they fight a subpoena in the courts.  David Dreier is completely out of touch with his district, and Brian Bilbray doesn’t even live there.  So we will see some opportunities in California in 2008.  And this is great news for Charlie Brown, Russ Warner and Nick Leibham, as they have been validated as national players.  I hope that they remain true to their beliefs and run these races their way, however, and not the way the national consultants tell them.

Not to toot my own horn, but these have consistently been the top three pickup opportunities in my Congressional roundups. 🙂

The John Doolittle retirement party is remaining the social event of 2008 in California. But check out the language used by the Placer County GOP Chair on a recent NRCC poll of John Doolittle and Charlie Brown:

The poll shows that [Doolittle] is in a statistical dead heat with Brown at this point.

In politics, if your candidate is ahead, you say that even if it is within the margin of error. If you are behind but withing the margin of error, you say exactly what Tom Hudson said.

This is huge news for Charlie Brown. He’s a challenger neck and neck this far out in a Democratic year with a broke incumbent and NRCC. I think Hudson knows this, either that or he is inept when it comes to spinning:

Before the 2006 election, Congressman Doolittle’s poll numbers were about the same as they are now. As everyone knows, 2006 was a terrible year for Republicans and Congressman Doolittle still won.

Sir, this isn’t just before the election, this is 11 months out. In 2006, Doolittle massively outspent Brown, this year Brown is ahead in fundraising. In 2006, the NRCC had money to help Doolittle barely win, not so this time. In 2006, Brown was a newbie candidate, this time he is a polished and experienced politico.

I think 2008 will be a better year for Republicans across the country — and in Placer County, so that will help a great deal.

The word “hope” would be more appropriate than “think” in the above sentence.

In any plausible scenario, including a scenario where turnout is as bad as it was in 2006, Congressman Doolittle will still win re-election.

Actually, I think it is more plausible that Doolittle will be indicted before the election than win.

But here is the most plausible scenario:  Doolittle’s staff will keep on squealing to the feds. The press will keep writing about how Doolittle is a crooked as a corkscrew. Brown will continue to dominate in fundraising, same with the DCCC. Brown will continue to mature as a candidate and his operation will be far more experienced. Brown will win.

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(Big news here. If Doolittle is leaving, I’d rather someone personally tied to him like Rico Oller get the nomination. Pretty much every Republican in that region is tied to the Doolittle machine in one way or another, so that would still be a factor in the race. Obviously, though, things get much more difficult for Charlie Brown in an open seat scenario. – promoted by David Dayen)

Cross posted at The Progressive Connection

Hank Shaw has just put up a post on his blog saying that his sources have John Doolittle resigning:

I am hearing from my Sacramento Valley friends that John Doolittle is about to step down and will ultimately endorse Rico Oller, who apparently owns lots of property in Doolittle’s 4th District. Oller would still have to get past Assemblyman Ted Gaines of Roseville and Eric Egland of Rocklin. Rico is definitely conservative, and if he has the blessing of the NorCal GOP machine that Doolittle has created, he should immediately become the favorite in that primary.

Hardly unexpected but also not good news for Charlie Brown…

[UPDATE]:  Hank has just put up a clarification. His sources have Doolittle withdrawing from the 2008 race, not resigning. Still not good news for Democrats.

There’s some real data in the form of third-quarter fundraising numbers to pore over, and events in Washington and at home have served to focus on some of our Congressional candidates here in California.  Plus, believe it or not, we’re only about a year out from Election Day.  Let’s take a look at the top ten races.

As usual, I’m going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup.  I’m also, as usual, including the “Boxer number.”  Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is.  If I put “57,” that means Boxer received 57% of the vote.  Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)

First, let’s look at the one threatened seat currently held by a Democrat.

1) CA-11.  Incumbent: Jerry McNerney.  Main challenger: Dean Andal.  Boxer number: 49.  McNerney had a big fundraising quarter big fundraising year (h/t babaloo), with over a million dollars in receipts, so he obviously won’t suffer from the same cash disadvantage he had in his race against Richard Pombo.  Nearly half of that money, $421,000, came from PACs.  This is not a low-dollar revolution.  Dean Andal has raised plenty of money too, but he’s down 2:1 in cash on hand.  McNerney of late has hammered the SCHIP issue, perhaps as a way to get back in the good graces of some Democrats wary of his votes and rhetoric on other issues.  Andal is trying to blur the lines on the issue.

A spokesman for former California Assemblyman Dean Andal (R), who is seeking Rep. Jerry McNerney’s (D) seat, made a similar remark. “He’s looking at it, like all of us reading a paper,” Richard Temple said. “Until he has all the information, I don’t think he can [definitively] say whether the president is doing the right thing,” Temple said.

The fact is that Andal is trying to reinvent himself as some kind of moderate, when it’s obvious he would be a Republican rubber-stamp.  The question is whether or not McNerney will be able to rally supporters that he represents a true contrast.

Now, to the top 10 challengers.

1) CA-04. Incumbent: John Doolittle.  Main challenger: Charlie Brown.  Last month: 1.  Boxer number: 40.  Doolittle’s money troubles have been well documented, but just today we learned that he has more money in his legal defense fund than he does cash on hand for the campaign.  That should give you an inkling as to his priorities.  Practically everyone in America has been subpoenad to testify in his corruption investigation, and those who haven’t are running against him in the Republican primary (at least 3 challengers, at last count).  Meanwhile, he’s defiant about staying in the race, perhaps because it is making his wife rich – she got another $45,000 from the campaign for “fundraising services” last quarter.  We’re all hoping Doolittle stays in this race and limps across the primary line, because Charlie Brown is poised to crush him.  At this point, Chris Cilizza of the Washington Post has this as the most likely race to flip parties in America. (Interesting side note: Doolittle primary challenger Eric Egland is stealing Brown’s statements for his own website.  More blurring strategy.)

2) CA-26. Incumbent: David Dreier. Main challengers: Russ Warner, Hoyt Hilsman.  Last month: 2.  Boxer number: 48. David Dreier got a wake-up call and started raising money in earnest this quarter for what will be a competitive race.  Russ Warner’s Q3 numbers were good (close to $130K), and he’s doing the smart thing by attacking Dreier on his SCHIP vote.  I like that Hoyt Hilsman is foregrounding the housing crisis, which is particularly acute in this district, as a part of his candidacy.  Whoever comes out of the primary will be able to deliver a strong message of change.  Dreier, meanwhile, will continue to whine about the mean Democrats and really make himself look like a strong leader.

3) CA-50. Incumbent: Brian Bilbray.  Main challenger: Nick Leibham.  Last month: 3.  Boxer number: 48.  Nick Leibham is a serious candidate for Congress in an area that was ravaged by wildfires last week, which may change the dynamic somewhat.  Leibham raised around $50K and has $132,000 CoH, trailing Bilbray by about half, which isn’t a bad spread at this point, honestly.  He actually gained ground this quarter because Bilbray had a lot of expenditures.  Bilbray being on Air Force One when it grounded firefighting aircraft in the midst of the blazes for several hours seems like it could be made into a campaign issue.  Bilbray has one arrow in the quiver, and that’s hating on illegal immigrants.  It defines him to the extent that he’s actually wistful for the imminent departure from Congress of Tom Tancredo.  I’m confident about keeping this in the number 3 position for now, although Leibham must demonstrate support above the Busby ceiling here.

4)) CA-41. Incumbent: Jerry Lewis.  Main challengers: Tim Prince, Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean, others.  Last month: 8.  Boxer number: 43.  I’m shooting this one back up, as events on the ground have shifted.  First of all, the investigations have restarted, with one Lewis staffer trying to deny a grand jury subpoena.  Second, the Brent Wilkes trial has taken a bizarre turn, leading some to wonder if attorneys are setting up Wilkes to flip on the other Congresscritters he bribed, including Lewis.  So the legal cases are hampering him.  What’s more, new candidates have entered the race.  Tim Prince is officially in, and he’s trying to keep his profile up in the district.  I’ll have more on Dr. Ramirez-Dean later, but she’s also a candidate.  Suffice to say that we will not have the same situation where Lewis handpicked his opponent in 2006.  There will be an actual election.

5) CA-42. Incumbent: Gary Miller.  Main challenger: Ron Shepston.  Last month: 5.  Boxer number: 41.  This is yet another area where the recent wildfires may affect the dynamic of the race.  While Gary Miller was voting against health care for children and keeping a low profile from federal investigators, Ron Shepston walked out of a candidate training summit to find his home in Silverado Canyon being threatened by the Santiago fire.  He got right to work helping local firefighting efforts.  With all of the human interest stories I’ve seen around Southern California the past week, I can’t believe I didn’t see this one: a candidate for Congress pitching in and showing leadership through helping defend his home and the homes of his neighbors from fires.  It’s powerful.  Shepston needs something to click with a larger base of support (his fundraising last quarter was around $25K) and this could be it.

6) CA-45.  Incumbent: Mary Bono.  Main challenger: Paul Clay.  Last month: 10.  Boxer number: 49.  Now that there’s an actual candidate in Paul Clay, I can raise this closer to the level where it should rightfully be.  It remains to be seen whether or not Clay is viable, but certainly the Palm Springs progressive community has been active and vocal and will push to unseat Mary Bono this time around.  Bono immunized herself a bit by voting with Democrats or SCHIP, but there’s still a long record of not supporting the needs of the district.  And marrying a fellow Congressman, to me, shows that she’s really part of the DC establishment and not the area.

7) CA-44.  Incumbent: Ken Calvert.  Main challenger: Bill Hedrick.  Last month: 6.  Boxer number: 45.  Ken Calvert still has an ethical cloud hanging over his head, has a terrible voting record, supported the Dirty Tricks initiative in its initial incarnation, and Bill Hedrick is on the attack.  This is an email he sent out recently, in response to a made up controversy about flag-folding that Calvert decided to take the lead on:

Like many of you, I was amazed that Congressman Calvert’s October 25, 2007 emailed newsletter consisted of a garbled interpretation of American history, Pilgrims, and a controversy regarding the “constituent service” of selling American flags, etc., rather than the real and immediate crisis facing residents of the 44th Congressional District-wildfires and the tragic loss suffered by Californians […]

I join others in praying for an end to the fires and God’s blessing on the victims and firefighters. We need engaged
representatives who will fight full-force to make our federal government responsive here and now.

Projecting an image of a do-nothing Congressman is right in line with what will work next November, IMO.  Hedrick is doing a good job attacks, but needs to make sure he has the resources to fight in this district.

8) CA-24. Incumbent: Elton Gallegly.  Main challengers: Mary Pallant, Chip Fraser, Brett Wagner, Jill Martinez?  Last month: 4  Boxer number: 47.  I just don’t think Elton Gallegly’s retiring this time around, and while I think that if he did there could be some competition here, he far outstrips the rest of the field in money and name ID.  I’d really like to see a viable alternative here because it might help downticket races (SD-19!), but none is forthcoming as of yet.  I like Mary Pallant a lot but an $1,100 3rd quarter isn’t going to cut it.

9) CA-52. Incumbent: None.  Republican challenger: Duncan L. Hunter.  Democratic challengers: Jim Hester, Mike Lumpkin.  Last month: 7.  Boxer number: 44.  Mike Lumpkin raised some serious money, around $50,000 in a short amount of time, to challenge this open seat.  I still think that it’s going to be hard to run against someone who will be serving in Iraq or Afghanistan during the election, potentially, and in addition, Duncan Hunter the pére has raised his profile enough that low-information Republicans will go to the polls thinking that he’s the candidate, giving a fake level of incumbency to his namesake.

10) CA-03.  Incumbent: Dan Lungren.  Main challenger: Bill Durston.  Last month: 9.  Boxer number: 42.  Nothing much to report here, although Bill Durston does have a MySpace page.  Akogun’s reports on the race have been very enlightening.  Give it up for candidates doing the hard work in red counties.

Today’s selection: The chief administrative officer of the House.

The top administrative officer in the House has been subpoenaed for e-mails related to the ongoing criminal investigation of Rep. John Doolittle (R-Calif.), according to a notification read on the House floor Thursday.

The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia issued the subpoena to Daniel P. Beard, the chief administrative officer of the House, whose office oversees electronic communications for members of Congress and their staff.

“The subpoena was issued in connection with the Justice Department investigation of Congressman Doolittle and seeks material from e-mail backup tapes maintained by the CAO,” according to a notification of the subpoena.

It’s almost a game now; will there be more people subpeonad than will vote for him in the Republican primary?

AKA the media. John Doolittle (CA-04, Roseville) thinks knows the media is the cause of all of his problems.  It’s not the DOJ, not the fact that he took money from some pretty shady characters, it’s the “press”. But, don’t worry media types, ol 15% Johnny’s still got your back on the shield law:

“Much as I love the press,” he said, with a scornful emphasis on the P word, “I decided it was appropriate to support this, because I think there needs to be some limits to executive authority, and I think that the freedom of the press is a real check on government power. Although I sometimes wonder about the bias and impartiality of the press. I wonder about it all the time, not sometimes. It’s clear in my mind it exists.” (SacBee 10/22/07)

Wow, what a benevolent figure John Doolittle is…

This is almost a placeholder diary so I can get to it later in my monthly roundup, but this diary at Open Left shows the very real opportunity available in California this time around.  Six Congressional Rpublicans who are running for re-election have less than $250,000 in cash on hand.  The NRCC, the campaign arm for the House GOP, is spread thin by retirements and challenges.  So many incumbents are going to be on their own in 2008.  And saying “Hello, I’m a Republican member of Congress” just doesn’t rake in the money like it used to.  Here’s the list:

John Doolittle, CA-04
George Radanovich, CA-19
Ken Calvert, CA-44
Mary Bono, CA-45
John Campbell, CA-48
Darrell Issa, CA-49

I can add to this the fact that Gary Miller only raised a paltry $40,000 last quarter.  And Doolittle’s problems are well-documented.

Unfortunately, our Democrats statewide haven’t fully stepped up.  Two of these incumbents (Radanovich, Issa) don’t have challengers yet, and Mary Bono just got one in Paul Clay.  But I would hope that Art Torres and the team would wake up to the fact that there are opportunities all over the map, in places that would significantly help down-ballot races as well.