Of the top four candidates for the Democratic nomination former Sen. John Edwards is the only candidate who does not have any paid staff or campaign offices in the nation’s largest state. The campaigns of Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and Gov. Bill Richardson all have devoted resources on the ground in California including offices and paid staffers.

http://bluesunbelt.c…

Delegate rich California, with a population of 38 million people, will deliver a mega amount of delegates on February 5, 2008. In the latest SUSA poll Sen. Hillary Clinton has a 21 point lead in California over Sen. Barack Obama with Edwards finishing third with 15%. 

“The Edwards insurgent road map is clear: convert progressive positions into labor endorsements, win Iowa, ride a big momentum wave in terms of press coverage and online money and then slingshot out to the bigger states” like California, said Democratic consultant Chris Lehane, a veteran of the Clinton White House who worked for Al Gore in 2000 and for 2004 presidential candidates John Kerry and Wesley Clark.

Democratic consultant Bill Carrick, who’s worked on presidential campaigns for Bill Clinton, Dick Gephardt and Ted Kennedy, said if Edwards stumbles in Iowa “he won’t have a California campaign.”

However, Carrick said even while concentrating on the earlier states Edwards must establish a campaign in California if he is to take advantage of early momentum.

“If you don’t have any preparation in California … it makes it all the harder to be competitive here if you do get here,” he said.

Carrick recalled that in 1988 Gephardt, the former Missouri senator, won Iowa and finished second in the New Hampshire primary, but lacking money he didn’t have the organization in other states to be competitive and fell out of the race.

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Edwards and Kerry carried California by double-digits in 2004, but surveys this year show the former senator trailing Clinton and Obama.

With Edwards’ fundraising lagging millions behind Obama and Clinton he must pick his spots, said Bruce Cain, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley.

“You cannot campaign in California without spending tens of millions of dollars,” Cain said. “He’s got to think long and hard before he diverts money to California.”

http://www.mercuryne…

On Sunday, a few bloggers from across the state talked with Governor Bill Richardson. You can find hekebelos’s transcript here.  Generally, I’d like to say that like Sen. Dodd, Gov. Richardson knew his stuff. The guy is no empty suit. I think the fact that our main candidates are solid on the issues is one thing of which we can be very proud.

As hekebelos mentioned, we talked about a wide variety of issues. On some issues, Governor Richardson spoke with a voice that progressive activists will take heart in. On others, well, we were not as satisfied.  To start with the good, Mr. Richardson has said that he would like no residual force left in Iraq. That’s good, but some of us were concerned about what exactly no residual force meant.  Well, he was completely unambiguous, it means soldiers, contractors, everybody. He would leave forces in the region to respond to situations that may arise, but as for Iraq? We are just too large of a target to remain.

On the other hand, I was somewhat less comfortable with his rhetoric on taxes. To me, taxes are the price you pay for a pleasant society. I don’t think the good Gov. is truly willing to publicly acknowledge that. He talks about growing the economic base rather than raising taxes. He wants to use tax incentives to encourage high wages, and good labor standards. That’s all well and good, but I’m just not sure how we deal with the falling value of the dollar and our growing deficit.

More over the flip…

Gov. Richardson stands opposed to raising taxes for healthcare, saying we spend enough already.  And on that, he might well be right. However, I think that is only true if we stop providing massive profits for the insurance industry. Personally, I don’t see how we continue how we reform the insurance industry at all. Reform isn’t enough, we need reconstruction from the ground up. The Gov. points out wasteful expenses and our lack of preventative care in favor of curative care. Waste is certainly a problem in the insurance model, but as to whether that alone is enough…well, let’s just color me skeptical.

Would I be comfortable if Gov. Richardson is our nominee? Yes. Is he my first choice? Probably not. To tell you the truth, if he would alter his language on taxation I would be a lot more comfortable.  While the Governor says he is not running for VP, I think it would be an excellent use of his strengths for any of the “first tier” candidates.

The speeches the candidates gave on the floor of the CDP convention this weekend were peppered with allusions to California but rarely in any substantive way. The “good morning, California Democrats!” here and the “We need to make sure Nancy Pelosi remains Speaker of the House!” there. Not surprisingly, the speeches were variations on their stump speeches, which they give everywhere.

That’s where the post-speech press conferences came in. Many of the journalists asking questions were local and were interested in how the primary being moved up impacted the candidates’ campaign strategies. The candidates’ responses said a lot about each of them as candidates. You had the extremely disciplined Hillary Clinton rave about California when it came to discussing the endorsements of local Assemblymembers but when it came to answering a specific California-based question (from our friends at Speak Out CA!), she shifted to standard stump speech talking points. John Edwards, who has a healthy skepticism of the media (I wonder why, he was asked about hedge funds and haircuts for crying out loud) was less forthcoming and even a bit dismissive, although he did engage in some primary strategy speculation. And the down in the polls Bill Richardson was the most eager to engage with the local press in hopes of gaining some traction. He had some great answers including referring to California as an “ATM machine” ( we didn’t pay him to do it, I swear!), offering solutions for California’s transportation problem and the gem “if I go to every living room in California I’d be dead.”

The videos are over the flip and of course at ATM Watch as well.

Governor Richardson:

Senator Edwards:

Senator Clinton:

I was feeling pretty tired, so instead of thinking and writing, I made a collage! How fun! So, these are just some pictures from the weekend. Clockwise from top left, 1)Bill Richardson talking to hekebelos, dday, and blogswarm, 2) Charlie Brown blogging at Blue House at the Brew House, 3) Former Sen. Mike Gravel giving a speech Friday night, 4) Chris Dodd with dday, 5) Charlie Brown holding court at Karl Strauss Brewery, 6) Fabian Nunez with Hillary Clinton. In the center, Sen. Carole Migden is talking with a staffer before her energetic speech at the CYD caucus meeting.

So, I meant to include a picture of Jerry McNerney, but as I was playing with the thumbnails I accidentally grabbed a second Brown photo. Woops! Next time, Jerry.  Any comments about the photos? Comment away!

I actually feel sorry for the Sunday morning candidates–including Edwards–because the hall isn’t nearly as full.  I mean, seriously–if you’re from some place like Sacramento, wouldn’t you want to take the opportunity to have a beautiful sunday afternoon in San Diego?

So would I.  And that’s exactly what I intend to do.  But only after the speeches, and after I vote.

Notes below.

Richardson started by giving his credentials on Iraq based on his experience at the UN.

His energy independence section just got an ovation.  You can read a lot of what he’s saying in the speech in the blogger meeting I transcribed below–it appears we bloggers just got a good speech preview.

I would announce a plan to revitalize American education.  It’s all crime, Iraq, energy, but education is the key to economic development.

I will have a minimum wage of $40,000 for all our teachers.  I did this in New Mexico.  We used to be 48th in teacher pay, now we’re 29th. (author note: and how has that improved education? I would have liked some statistics on that…)

We would emphasize languages and the arts, but science and math are the key to our future.

We can get rid of the statistic that one out of every two Hispanic and black children do not graduate.

And with No Child Left Behind, it’s just just the unfunded mandates–we need to spend more on teacher training at schools that do not perform well.  testing and accountability need to be part of the system, but the system is not working.  I believe that education is the centerpiece of America’s progress.  The fourth day, I would take off, because I’ve done too much.  But seriously.  On the fourth day, I would have a plan for Universal Health Care for every American.  that is a right.  But I would have that plan first deal with the existing problem: the massive bureaucracy and administrative costs.  We have to find solutions that pay for a healthcare plan.  but I would focus on other creative ways.

As governor, I have to deal with this issue every day.  My plan includes the option for every American to have the same plan was the Senators and Congresmen you’ve heard speak.

We need to get junk food out of schools, like I did in New Mexico. We need to invest in cancer research, autism, stem cell research.  We need to be the party of Research and Development.  We need to find ways to make America healthier

My secretary of labor would be a member of an American union.  I would push prevailing wage, fairer health care, but also, I would say to America’s working men and women: we will find ways to bring collective bargaining to everywhere in America.  Then, the next day, I would reinforce America’s commitment to civil rights.  I would start with the issue very dear to me as the governor of a border state: immigration.

I would tear down the weall between Mexico and the United States.  I would find a path to an earned legalization program that stresses family reunification.  I would say to Mexico: ayudenos.  Stop giving maps to the most porous areas in our borders.

(I missed what he said about choice.)

I would be a president that says that discrimination is unacceptable to all people.  On issues relating to discrimination based on sexual orientation, I would put domestic partnerships, civil unions, and hate crime laws like I have in New Mexico–the most progressive state on all these issues.

I love you all.  You’ve given me a huge welcome.  But you’re thinking–this Richardson guy.  Well-qualified.  Pretty good-looking too.  But can he win?  And all I’m saying is we’re going to outwork everyone.

(missed the rest).

As expected, he is mostly playing up his diplomatic experience. He’s also laying out his priorities of what he’ll do as president. 1st day in office: out of Iraq, no residual troops. 2nd day in office: announce an Apollo energy program. 3rd day in office: plan to revitalize education. Minimum wage for teachers: $40,000/year. 4th day in office: universal healthcare. 5th day: jobs program.

More over the fold and in the comments…

“I would tear down that wall between America and Mexico!” He’s good on immigration. He’s calling for earned citizenship and compassion.

He just spoke out against the Supreme Court ruling and declared his support for a woman’s right to choose.

“I will be a president who promotes civil unions and domestic partnerships.”

“I love you all, not just because you’re important and you moved up your primary. I ask you California, vote on the basis of who has the most experience, not on who’s the biggest rock star or who has the most money. Vote on who can change America”

He’s making his case:

“I have experience. We tried someone who didn’t have experience…”

“I’m a governor. We elect governors in this country.”

We just had a group interview with Bill Richardson.  Below is a transcript of sorts.  Not included in the transcript is his response to my question on the US Attorney Scandal, where he said basically that Gonzales should resign and he would make sure that his AG would be a servant of the people, not a political flak.

Full text below.

Bob: As the only Western candidate, what are opportunities for Democrats in the West?

Richardson: The West is veering Democratic.  Four years ago, the governors from Canada to Mexico were all Republican.  Now 5 out of 7 were Democrats.  What has helped make that trend permanent is the rise of environmentalism and renewable energy.  Non-traditional supporters, sportsmen and recreationists turned off by Bush’s energy policy.  Clean air and roadless areas.  Second is a strong Hispanic migration.  Even smaller-scale, like Utah.  But Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, that has been an important issue.  Third, I’m the only Presidential candidate with a transportation and smart-growth policy.  A lot of folks are moving to escape the traffic and the northeast and Midwest are doing the same.  And that’s causing a new set of voters to be there that think quality of life is important.  And that’s causing Westerners to assess-in Las Vegas the biggest issue is traffic, and a lot of Western governors are looking at light rail and energy efficient mass transit.  Every year the president gets billions to build new highways.  We need smart growth and strong land use policies.  In terms of other issues-individualism-the West is very independent, and there’s very strong anti-government initiatives that do well.  The West is pro-choice, and pro-second amendment.  I can’t underemphasize the energy side.  The most progressive policies in renewable energy-New Mexico is 20% renewable by 2020-California with climate change-we have the strongest targets, a 75% in greenhouse emissions reduction by 2030 in New Mexico-we’re the only state that abides by the Kyoto treaty.  And we have progressive governors.  I believe in growth, and I believe in cutting taxes.  You give a company a tax cut if they pay over a prevailing wage.  We should be the party of science, R&D, high tech.  In New Mexico, if you’re a technology startup, we don’t tax you for three years.  We’ve been stuck in the politics of redistribution instead of economic growth.  My point is as a presidential candidate, I can bring several Western states do the Democratic column.  We build our coalition around 20 states.

DDay: taxes.  We had a PPIC poll in California that said that at least 65% said they would pay higher taxes if it meant they could get healthcare.  I want to know how you respond to liberal Democrats who think that the rhetoric about taxation needs to change, about how America is worth paying for and taxes are the price you pay for a free society, instead of the rhetoric about taxes that the Republicans have been successful with.

Richardson: I think that kind of thinking has gotten us in trouble.  I would replace the Bush tax cuts with cuts for the middle class and companies that create more jobs.  I believe in tax cuts for the country to become green, and I’m for an Apollo program to reduce our dependence on foreign oils  There’s a huge job market for America in this.  And I would ask Americans to sacrifice.  I have a fuel-efficient vehicle.  I’d double fuel efficiency in ten years.  I’ve got the strongest policy on climate change.  There needs to be aggressive mandates.  I’d have a cap-and-trade system.  On health care I believe you can have a universal plan and I think it can be financed through the existing inefficiencies in the system.  34% goes into bureaucracy and no electronic records.  Then I’d do existing reforms, like allow every American to purchase a Congressional healthcare plan.  Second, the war in Iraq.  I’d shift lots of that to healthcare.  I’d also have what Massachussetts and Cali are starting to do-everyone pays their fair share on healthcare, and those that can’t, you give them a little subsidy and incentive.  Not a tax cut, just hold down insurance costs.  More personal responsibility.  Taxing the rich to pay for everything won’t help.

DDay: would you repeal the AMT?

Richardson: yes, I would fix that

Juls: 49% of Californians feel they’re falling behind.  How would you address that feeling?

Richardson: I believe we have to have policies-I was on an airplane, and by the way, we need a passenger’s bill of rights.  But I’m sitting with this woman, and she said that she was in the middle class and felt like she was paying for both the poor and the rich.  What I’d do is use the tax code to reward companies that create jobs.  I’d raise the minimum wage.  I’d focus on California’s strengths.  But we’re taking a lot of your people because your state income tax and business taxes aren’t competitive.  A national healthcare plan.  The key to everything is education.  Community college and vocational training.  And you pay for it with a constitutional amendment to balance the budget.  This has been proposed before, and I have to do it as a governor.  I’ve run a bureaucracy of 110,000.  I would eliminate earmarks, which wouldn’t be popular in Congress.  Eliminate tzaax breaks for companies that take jobs overseas.  I would restructure the Bush tax cuts to focus those that produce jobs.  My priorities are human needs.  But my solution isn’t to tax the rich.  It’s to build coalitions like I’ve done in New Mexico.  Education is huge for me  I’d extend the school day and hear, pay our teachers better with accountability.  I’d have a goal-in 15 years, move from 28th to number 1.  We have a crash program.

On Iraq: construct legislation to de-authorize the war.  Challenge it on the war powers act.  I want no residual troops.  I would redeploy those forces.  All contractors out too.