Tag Archives: Giuliani

Coachella Valley vs U.S. Nationally: Republican FundRace 2008 Q3 Results

The figures for FundRace 2008 Q3 (Third Quarter Ending September 30, 2007) have been released from the Federal Elections Commission.  According to 2decide.com, the Republican Candidates for President raised the following amounts during Campaign 2008 Q3:

Romney:  $18.4 million
Thompson:  $12.8 million
Guiliani:  $11.6 million
McCain:  $5.7 million
Paul:  $5.3 million
Huckabee:  $1.0 million
Brownback:  $0.9 million
Tancredo:  $0.8 million
Hunter:  $0.5 million

The leading Candidates in the FundRace 2008 Q3 Nationwide are Romney, Thompson, and Giuliani.  The two leading fundraisers are therefore both archconservatives on the National level.  However, Romney’s fundraising is artificially inflated (just like his poll numbers) due to his loan to himself in the amount of $8.5 million.  Nevertheless, two of the top three fundraisers are still archconservative by any standard.  Huckabee, Brownback, Tancredo, and Hunter raised very little funds in comparison to the others.

In the Coachella Valley (i.e., Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Desert Hot Springs, Palm Desert, Rancho Mirage, Coachella, and Indio), the Republican Candidates for President raised the following amounts during Campaign 2008 Q3 see BlueBeaumontBoyz’ Coachella Valley: Republican FundRace 2008 Q3

McCain:  $17, 213
Giuliani:  $17, 125
Romney:  $10, 685
Thompson:  $1,725
Paul:  $1,100
Brownback:  $1,000
Huckabee:  $0
Hunter:  $0
Tancredo:  $0

The leading Candidates in FundRace 2008 Q3 in the Coachella Valley are McCain, Giuliani, and RomneyThompson, Paul, Brownback, Huckabee, Hunter, and Tancredo raised nothing or next to it during Q3.

Although McCain leads the pack in the Coachella Valley during Q3, he lagged significantly behind the leaders Nationwide.  On the other hand, although Thompson was in the top two fundraisers Nationwide during Q3, he lagged behind significantly in the Coachella Valley.

Of note, the leading fundraisers in the Coachella Valley are seen as more moderate than those on the National level.  Therefore, the leading fundraisers on the National level are probably out-of-step with the Coachella Valley, being more conservative than this area.  This may cause a problem for Republicans locally should one of the more conservative Republicans win the nomination.

Giuliani Throws Down Gauntlet For California Dems

Rudy Giuliani made a swing through Southern California this week to scoop up money and speak to supporters in Del Mar Wednesday evening.  While trying to overcome some concerns from Republican primary voters that he’s not conservative enough, he said that he “can be competitive in every single state,” that he can take California.

A bold statement for a candidate who supports the continued Occupation of Iraq and rarely has criticism for President Bush.  But California Democrats have been put on notice: Rudy Giuliani plans to take California.

What justification does he offer?  He starts by assuring folks that no other Republican would even TRY to compete in California.  But then also explains why he thinks Californians would prefer his vision for the future: “I do not believe in giving our enemies a timetable for our retreat in a time of war the way Hillary Clinton and John Edwards and Barack Obama do,” presumably meaning that he’s working on some sort of surprise withdrawal or waiting until a time of peace to give “enemies” a timetable.

This apparently is a selling point here on the left coast despite the Field Poll from last week finding that 72% of Californians and a plurality of Republicans disapprove of Bush’s handling of Iraq.  This also despite the same Field Poll finding that two-thirds of Californians and 40% of Republicans want some or all troops withdrawn from Iraq.  Rudy Giuliani is in your head California.

He went on to tout his executive experience, noting that former Chula Vista Mayor and current County Supervisor Greg Cox has more executive experience than the current Democratic frontrunners:

“The three leading Democratic candidates, they’ve never run a city. They’ve never run a state. I don’t think they’ve ever run a business of any size,” Giuliani said. “This is the chief executive office of the United States. It’s the most difficult executive position in the world. You would think that to run for it you would have to have some executive experience.”

Giuliani of course has never run a state or a business, but that’s beside the point.  He seems to think that a state who has twice elected a former actor with no political experience of any kind, nominated by the party he is trying to woo, is concerned about a lack of political experience in its executives.  And I don’t even mean Reagan.  Rudy Giuliani knows you better than you know yourself California.

Giuliani’s relatively moderate (relative to the Republican party that is) stances on abortion, gun control, and other issues mean he can probably get in the door in California.  The success of a pseudo-moderate like Schwarzenegger means the possibility exists for traction.  I guess he thinks that’s enough for voters to overlook supporting the Occupation of Iraq, not reading the 9/11 Commission Report, getting booted from the Iraq Study Group, the opposition to free speech that earned him a “Lifetime Muzzle Award,” the lying and attempts to take false credit for 9/11 response, the shabby treatment of first responders, the corrupt appointees, and the generally lukewarm (generously) opinions within New York City about his performance as mayor, the Kerik debacle, the attempt to extend his mayoral term past the legal limit, the racial profiling, the support for waterboarding, and on and on.

I wouldn’t think that California would not be much interested in such a guy, but I could be wrong.  He leads the California race for the Republican nomination as of last week though with 35% (Field Poll), miles ahead of Romney and Thompson at 14% and 13% respectively.  And he thinks that after all of this, he can take California.  Nevermind polling that shows Clinton, Obama and Edwards each beating every Republican frontrunner by comfortable margins.  He’s ready to bring it.  Because he fits with California.  So don’t forget your anti-Giuliani narrative in between all the other politics of the next 14 months.

Giuliani Leads Working Californians’ Rep Primary Poll

(Cross-posted from Working Californians)

Today seemed like an appropriate time to release the second half of our presidential poll on the Republicans, given that all of them are attending the debate here.  It is split into two polling memos from Mellman, our pollster.  The first is on the horserace, post to come later on the issues.  The summary says:

Our recent statewide poll shows Rudolph Giuliani currently sporting a 15-point lead in the California Republican primary. Despite Giuliani’s lead, however, the race is far from over. His advantage is based importantly, though not completely, on a malleable factor: the belief that he would be the strongest general election candidate. At present, John McCain, a popular second choice candidate, provides the only serious competition. Furthermore, if McCain were no longer running, his supporters would be more likely to move towards Giuliani, while Giuliani supporters are less likely to identify McCain as their second choice. While Giuliani is in a strong position, there is opportunity for other candidates to break through to California Republicans between now and February 5, 2008; the race is very much still up-for-grabs.

There is talk that unless McCain raises $20 million in the second quarter he will drop out.  Our polling makes clear that Giuliani would benefit the most from that development.  Considering the manner in which the Republicans allocate their delegates, even those who have lower numbers have an opportunity pick up a few in California.

Giuliani is nearly as well known as McCain and far better liked.

Giuliani not only has the highest overall favorables, but is also well liked by those who know him; his average favorability rating (a figure which takes into account both the direction and intensity of feeling) is 3.03, so that among those who know him, his average rating is just over “somewhat favorable.” Although Romney is less well known than McCain, he is better liked by those who know him (mean favorability of 2.75, compared to 2.70 for McCain). Neither candidate, however, is as popular as Giuliani among those who know them.

For now, Giuliani holds a strong lead, with McCain in second and Romney trailing.  The Thompson in this case is Tommy.  Obviously, if Fred gets into the race, it will shake these numbers up a bit.

Giuliani’s lead is greater (40%) among those paying very close attention to the primary, while Romney (11%) is actually slightly ahead of McCain (10%) in that attentive segment. Among those paying only somewhat close attention, Giuliani maintains a strong lead with 38% of the vote, while McCain’s support increases to 26%; Romney maintains his third place position at 12%. However, among voters who are not following the election closely, Giuliani’s support declines to 33%, McCain is at 21%, and Romney has just 5% of the vote. Nearly 3 in 10 (29%) voters not paying close attention are undecided.

The race shifts among voters who are familiar with all three top-tier candidates. Among these voters, Giuliani’s support holds steady at 36%, while McCain’s total drops to 15% and Romney’s support jumps to second place with 17%; just 14% of these most knowledgeable voters are undecided. This suggests that part of Senator McCain’s support is based on his higher name recognition, an advantage that could disappear as primary day approaches.

Other highlights from the poll: Giuliani’s support is strongest among Californians highly concerned about national security and iraq.  McCain does relatively well among voters concerned about health care.  Republican primary voters now believe Giuliani has the best chance to win the general.  Giuliani and McCain are equally popular second choice candidates.

Much, much more in the full pollster memo on the .

Moving the Primary Benefits Giuliani

Giuliani’s heroesque performance at this weekend’s California Republican Party Convention is a reminder that moving the state primary up could be dangerous to progressive causes in yet another way–Giuliani’s moderate, yet hawkish, message could resonate the GOP to state and national victory.


Some prime quotes from his Saturday speech:

Attacking the Congressional debate on antiwar resolutions:

“Presidents can’t do nonbinding resolutions. Presidents have to make decisions and move the country forward, and that’s the kind of president I will want to be.”

“President Bush made the decision to reverse the politics of the past. Where we had been on defense against terrorism, he goes on the offense. … We are going to see that as having been a very wise, very brave decision that kept America safe.”