The San Gabriel Valley is a unique area.  Within 5 minutes of Gil Cedillo’s campaign kickoff for Congress yesterday in El Monte, I visited a 200 year-old Spanish mission, and a Pho shop in Alhambra where I was the only guy in there who didn’t speak Cantonese.  This is a series of highly homogeneous communities, which doesn’t have the same media, doesn’t have the same leadership, and doesn’t even speak the same language.

However, it’s a demographic reality that the district is over 60% Latino while being about 18% Asian.  This is an urban, middle-class Hispanic district.  And while Gil Cedillo doesn’t represent it in the State Senate, he drew a lot of support to his initial campaign event yesterday.  Close to 400 people packed a storefront in El Monte to get started on the campaign.  Before there’s even a date set for the primary election (though everyone assumes it will be folded into the May 19 special election), yesterday Cedillo supporters were out canvassing the district.

But first, there were a series of speeches and endorsements.  Cedillo will have the backing of the Latino political establishment in the area.  The big news yesterday was that Rep. Xavier Becerra, of the neighboring district of CA-31, was out to endorse.  He joins the local county supervisor Gloria Molina, the local city councilman Ed Reyes (a small part of the district includes LA City), former Rep. Esteban Torres, and several other councilmembers and local politicos in giving their endorsement to Cedillo.  Molina even intimated that Congressional Hispanic Caucus support would be coming.  There was some not-all-that-subtle rhetoric about “our community” and “our people.”  It’s clear that this is a replay of the CA-37 special election, where Laura Richardson pushed an African-American/Hispanic divide.  With Cedillo’s main competition being Judy Chu, there’s definitely going to be some of that Hispanic/Asian divide in this race, though I imagine it will be more respectful that Richardson’s toxicity.  

What complicates this is that Chu received the Cal Labor Fed endorsement and actually has support from a few Latino lawmakers of her own.  Cedillo was sure to tout his 100% labor scorecard in his short address.  In the rest, he talked about a campaign of faith and hope, strength and leadership.  He called the San Gabriel Valley “a slice of America,” where families come to buy a home, raise children, and get an education.  And he talked about the need to make the economy work for those families, with a particular emphasis on health care (he mentioned how great it would be to build a hospital with the stimulus money – even though I’m pretty sure that won’t be something the stimulus can do).  Cedillo is at his best when talking about immigration.  His tireless support for the California version of the DREAM Act, to allow undocumented students to attend college and be eligible for financial aid, has earned him a sterling reputation among young people, many of whom were there volunteering yesterday.

I don’t know how many of those young people are eligible to vote, however, and in particular, eligible in that district.  Cedillo will have no shortage of volunteers, but he doesn’t completely have a voting base inside the district, having never represented it.  Outside of Molina, the endorsees are not by and large from the population centers of the district, either.  The other factor in this race is Emanuel Pleitez, who liveblogged at FDL yesterday.  He is a local, with a small but strong group of former Obama organizers working with him.  If you look at this strictly on the level of identity politics, having Pleitez in the race probably helps Judy Chu a bit.  The big question, of course, is who is going to turn out their voters.

Minutes ago, the US Senate confirmed Hilda Solis by an 80-17 vote to be the Secretary of Labor.  This is a big victory for progressives to fight conservative obstructionism and get a real friend to the labor movement in a top position in Barack Obama’s cabinet.  It was an unnecessarily long fight, but this is a great resolution.  In addition, with Solis having authored the Green Jobs Act, she will undoubtedly be a force for making sure jobs in the alternative energy sector are good union jobs that pay a living wage.

This also means that there will shortly, perhaps as soon as tomorrow, be a vacancy in the 32nd District seat.  There are three main candidates for the seat thus far, all of whom have already begun campaigning.

Judy Chu is currently on the Board of Equalization.  While a Chinese-American running for a seat that is majority Latino, Chu has the support of the California Federation of Labor, which typically cleans up in these kinds of special elections.  That alone makes her the favorite IMO.

Gil Cedillo is a State Senator in the adjoining district, and so he represents very few of these constituents.  He has been strong on issues around immigration in particular, and will certainly be formidable in this race.

Emanuel Pleitez worked in the Obama transition team on the Treasury Department.  The fact that Treasury has practically no senior officers staffing it save for Tim Geithner, over a month after the inauguration, doesn’t really speak well to Pleitez’ transition capabilities.  But he apparently has the most robust campaign apparatus in the district thus far (with 17 volunteer full-time staff members), and he was born and raised in the district.

We invite every single one of them to interact with us on Calitics.

The most likely scenario is that either the primary or the general election gets folded into the May 19 special election.  Gov. Schwarzenegger has 14 calendar days to set the schedule.

Just wanted to use the term “President Obama” at the beginning of this.  Has a ring to it.

• A few days old, but this is an important story.  We talk a lot about the Capitol news bureaus being thinned out, but if you think that’s bad, look at the almost non-existent pool of reporters covering county governments, in particular the country’s largest, LA County.  The budget is bigger than most states, and yet the Board of Supervisors has five members and only FOUR reporters.  There’s a direct line that can be drawn between media invisibility and the current crisis in California government.

• Gil Cedillo, running for Hilda Solis’ Congressional seat once it’s vacated, has a website.  Calitics hopes to talk with all the CA-32 candidates in the coming weeks.

• Here’s a story about the political tightrope being walked by newly-elected candidates Alyson Huber and Joan Buchanan.  Legislators like this are always given the bad advice to act like the more conservative elements of their districts even though they won election promising something wholly separate from that.  The bias is that the campaign consultants of their OPPONENTS set their governing strategy.  That’s bogus.  Make your case and the voters will respond.

• If you’re into the deathly important business of which gubernatorial candidate talked to which inaugural ball participant, this is the article for you.  I have to say that I cannot work up even a little bit of enthusiasm for the 2010 race, especially considering that “leader of a failed state” is about as praiseworthy an honor as “perpetrator of the smallest genocide.”  So you may be able to find 18-month-in-advance horse-race stories elsewhere.  Go get them.  Because the next Governor of this state is not likely to be a movement candidate and as such is probably destined for failure, and so any investment of my time seems foolhardy.

•

I have to admit that this is kind of unexpected.  Not only did State Sen. Gil Cedillo announce his intention to run for Congress in the seat soon to be vacated by incoming Labor Secretary Hilda Solis, but Gloria Romero, who was widely expected to run for the seat, abruptly decided to bow out, endorsing Cedillo and announcing her intention to run for State Superintendent of Public Instruction instead.

Here’s a bit from Romero’s statement:

I have evaluated the wonderful opportunities before me and have chosen to listen to my heart.

My passion is education.  I understand that education is the civil rights issue of our time — the great equalizer in America .  My commitment — particularly now as the Chair of both  the powerful Senate Education Committee and Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Subcommittee on Education — is to lead the Senate’s effort  to transform and hold accountable our state’s public education system.

It is for this reason that I have chosen to decline to run for Congress and to pursue my dream of becoming California ‘s next Superintendent of Public Instruction […]

I endorse Senator Cedillo and look forward to working with him to continue the “change we can believe in” both in California and Washington in these troubling times.

And here’s a bit from Cedillo’s:

State senator Gilbert Cedillo (D-Los Angeles) today confirmed his intention to run for the 32nd congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Hilda Solis, the Obama administration choice for Secretary of Labor.

“This is a tremendous opportunity for Latinos and the working people of East Los Angeles and San Gabriel Valley. Hilda Solis has been a strong leader on labor and economic issues for the 32nd District. As a candidate I seek to continue that focus, creating a competitive workforce, securing access to affordable healthcare and investment into public safety and transportation,” shared Cedillo.

This changes the calculus of this race a bit.  Gloria Romero represented most of this district in the State Senate.  Gil Cedillo actually does not.  In fact, Judy Chu has represented maybe more of this area than Cedillo has.  Chu has already grabbed the endorsements of local Assemblymen Kevin DeLeon and Ed Hernandez.  And if more Hispanics join the field, that could certainly chip away at Cedillo’s support among low-information voters.  One of the Calderon brothers may still jump in.  And Dante noted last week that Emanuel Pleitez may run.

This kind of makes this astroturf piece by Paul Hefner, playing down expectations that Chu could win in a divided race and playing up Romero’s chances while disclosing midway through that he WORKS for Romero, look ridiculous in retrospect.  (What’s even funnier is the dueling astroturf comment in that piece from Judy Chu’s former chief of staff.)

I would be careful with assuming that ethnic support is monolithic.  The last special election we saw with an ethnic divide, in CA-37, was decided more because of strong labor support for Laura Richardson than identity politics, though it never stopped Richardson from trying to frame the entire race that way.  Chu absolutely can garner support in Latino areas, as much as Cedillo can in Monterey Park.  Labor’s endorsement is going to mean a lot.

On the merits, I would say that Cedillo would certainly be a strong progressive with a particular interest in immigration policy, and Chu has a good background through the Board of Equalization on taxes and economics.  Hopefully we’ll have both of them on Calitics in the near future to discuss their candidacies.

(P.S. This HuffPo article about the new Progressive Change Campaign Committee suggests that they might play in CA-32.  That ship has pretty much sailed, though if they got on board with Sen. Cedillo it may make some sense.

Last night at a holiday party for the West Los Angeles Democratic Club, state Board of Equalization Chair Dr. Judy Chu announced her intention to run for the Congressional seat vacated by Hilda Solis, who will become the Secretary of Labor in the Obama Administration.  Before getting on the Board of Equalization, Chu served the 49th Assembly district, which is inside Solis’ Congressional district and includes the heavily Asian Monterey Park, as well as El Monte and Rosemead.  Her husband, Mike Eng, currently holds that seat (I guess that means Eng isn’t running).  Before that, Chu served on the Monterey Park City Council.

Chu and likely candidate Gloria Romero have faced each other before, in a primary for state Assembly in 1998.  Romero won, but when she moved up to the State Senate in 2001 (replacing Solis) Chu took over the Assembly seat.  I think the race may depend on who else is in the field.  If Gil Cedillo or one of the Calderon brothers decide to run, Chu may have an advantage as the only Asian candidate among a field of Latinos.  Also, a lot may depend on whether or not Solis endorses.  Union support will also be critical.

Chu was an professor for 13 years, and in the Assembly she sat on the Transportation Committee and the Health Committee.  Her ratings in the Assembly from the major interest groups were all top-rate.  It should be a spirited race, and I hope to hear Chu’s stands on key national issues.

Let’s have a brief respite from the coming California apocalypse to try and figure out which politician will beat a fast retreat out of Sacramento and into DC to replace Hilda Solis in the Congress.  There are actually some good progressive possibilities here, which one would hope considering that Solis was such a progressive leader.  The CapAlert early line matched with my expectations.

Democratic state Sens. Gil Cedillo and Gloria Romero say they’re exploring running for the East Los Angeles County congressional seat that’s expected to be vacated by Rep. Hilda Solis, reportedly President-elect Barack Obama’s pick for labor secretary.

While Cedillo was expressing his interest Thursday to reporters on the floor of the Senate, Romero wandered by and said she was “definitely” looking at jumping into the race.

Told that in addition to Cedillo, the Calderon brothers — Assemblyman Charles and state Sen. Ron — could be contenders, Romero declared, “I can beat them all” — and walked off.

I like the confidence.

Both Cedillo or Romero would be great additions to the House.  I would give Romero the edge because it’s actually her district – Cedillo serves a contiguous district.  Romero would be a rare voice for prison reform in Washington, and while her advocacy proved fruitless in Sacramento, ultimately she will be proven right if we see mass releases in the next few months, and having her on the national stage would be very helpful to the prison reform movement.  For Cedillo it’s the same, only on immigration reform.  I would imagine that both of them would join the House Progressive Caucus.

As long as the Calderons stay out of this seat, I’d be happy.

Other contenders are the sitting Assemblymembers in the district, Ed Hernandez and Mike Eng, as well as state Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu, who in a twist is married to Mike Eng, which would make for an interesting primary.  I think Chu is good in her position but I can’t say I know much about her on other issues.

The last special Congressional election gave us Laura Richardson.  Hopefully we’ll do much better with this one.

UPDATE: As per below, Jackie Speier won the last special election for Congress in CA, actually.

In an unanticipated flip flop (this one in particular, not the flipping in general) this past weekend while in San Diego addressing the National Council of La Raza, John McCain signaled his unequivocal support for the DREAM Act:

Q: “Will you support humanity all across the world and support The DREAM Act that we are trying to pass?”

A: “Yes. Yes, but I will also enforce the existing laws. That’s why we must secure the border…”

McCain was a sponsor of the DREAM Act in 2003, 2005 and 2007, but NOW in 2007:

McCain Skipped Vote On DREAM Act But Said He Would Have Voted Against Bill That He Co-Sponsored. “Last week, McCain skipped a Senate vote on immigration legislation called the DREAM Act – Development Relief and Education for Alien Minors. He then said he would have voted against the bill, even though he was a co-sponsor.” [Myrtle Beach Sun-News, 11/2/07 ]

This is remarkable on its face and is a clear attempt to pull Latino voters to McCain and make California competitive, but it doesn’t exactly jive with the spin that was being pushed around yesterday after Obama’s luncheon speech.

The real absurdity of McCain’s strategy, at least with regard to reaching Latino voters in California, was on full display Sunday following Obama’s La Raza speech, and it basically boiled down to telling Latinos that the elected Latinos throughout the state are failures. Hector Barajas, Director of Communications for the California GOP ticked off the list of Democratic boogeymen: Antonio Villaraigosa, Fabian Nunez, Gil Cedillo. Not just three of the most visible Latino politicians in the state, but ones that are noteworthy for championing Latino causes. Heck, Cedillo sponsored the DREAM Act that McCain now supports.

The boiled down version of the McCain line: Latinos have elected Latino officials who champion Latino causes and issues, but those Latinos are specifically what’s wrong with politics and run counter to the actual, McCain version of Latino interests. With all the big talk about how serious this campaign is about California and how the Latino vote is ripe for the taking, if overt insults make up the strategy then it’s no surprise that Obama is blowing out McCain in California.

Nevertheless, there are two possible silver linings here. The obvious one that we’ve been talking about for a long time is that if California can be a time and money suck for the McCain campaign, super. Please come and try. The second seems less likely given the ineptitude of McCain’s Latino outreach, but if this maybe inspires the DNC, CDP and/or the Obama campaign in some combination to increase focus on Latino targeting, messaging and outreach, I certainly wouldn’t mind.

In the meantime, maybe McCain can expand this strategy to all Americans and tell them that the majority that they elected in 2006 doesn’t represent their interests by default. Oh wait…