There’s some real data in the form of third-quarter fundraising numbers to pore over, and events in Washington and at home have served to focus on some of our Congressional candidates here in California.  Plus, believe it or not, we’re only about a year out from Election Day.  Let’s take a look at the top ten races.

As usual, I’m going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup.  I’m also, as usual, including the “Boxer number.”  Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is.  If I put “57,” that means Boxer received 57% of the vote.  Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)

First, let’s look at the one threatened seat currently held by a Democrat.

1) CA-11.  Incumbent: Jerry McNerney.  Main challenger: Dean Andal.  Boxer number: 49.  McNerney had a big fundraising quarter big fundraising year (h/t babaloo), with over a million dollars in receipts, so he obviously won’t suffer from the same cash disadvantage he had in his race against Richard Pombo.  Nearly half of that money, $421,000, came from PACs.  This is not a low-dollar revolution.  Dean Andal has raised plenty of money too, but he’s down 2:1 in cash on hand.  McNerney of late has hammered the SCHIP issue, perhaps as a way to get back in the good graces of some Democrats wary of his votes and rhetoric on other issues.  Andal is trying to blur the lines on the issue.

A spokesman for former California Assemblyman Dean Andal (R), who is seeking Rep. Jerry McNerney’s (D) seat, made a similar remark. “He’s looking at it, like all of us reading a paper,” Richard Temple said. “Until he has all the information, I don’t think he can [definitively] say whether the president is doing the right thing,” Temple said.

The fact is that Andal is trying to reinvent himself as some kind of moderate, when it’s obvious he would be a Republican rubber-stamp.  The question is whether or not McNerney will be able to rally supporters that he represents a true contrast.

Now, to the top 10 challengers.

1) CA-04. Incumbent: John Doolittle.  Main challenger: Charlie Brown.  Last month: 1.  Boxer number: 40.  Doolittle’s money troubles have been well documented, but just today we learned that he has more money in his legal defense fund than he does cash on hand for the campaign.  That should give you an inkling as to his priorities.  Practically everyone in America has been subpoenad to testify in his corruption investigation, and those who haven’t are running against him in the Republican primary (at least 3 challengers, at last count).  Meanwhile, he’s defiant about staying in the race, perhaps because it is making his wife rich – she got another $45,000 from the campaign for “fundraising services” last quarter.  We’re all hoping Doolittle stays in this race and limps across the primary line, because Charlie Brown is poised to crush him.  At this point, Chris Cilizza of the Washington Post has this as the most likely race to flip parties in America. (Interesting side note: Doolittle primary challenger Eric Egland is stealing Brown’s statements for his own website.  More blurring strategy.)

2) CA-26. Incumbent: David Dreier. Main challengers: Russ Warner, Hoyt Hilsman.  Last month: 2.  Boxer number: 48. David Dreier got a wake-up call and started raising money in earnest this quarter for what will be a competitive race.  Russ Warner’s Q3 numbers were good (close to $130K), and he’s doing the smart thing by attacking Dreier on his SCHIP vote.  I like that Hoyt Hilsman is foregrounding the housing crisis, which is particularly acute in this district, as a part of his candidacy.  Whoever comes out of the primary will be able to deliver a strong message of change.  Dreier, meanwhile, will continue to whine about the mean Democrats and really make himself look like a strong leader.

3) CA-50. Incumbent: Brian Bilbray.  Main challenger: Nick Leibham.  Last month: 3.  Boxer number: 48.  Nick Leibham is a serious candidate for Congress in an area that was ravaged by wildfires last week, which may change the dynamic somewhat.  Leibham raised around $50K and has $132,000 CoH, trailing Bilbray by about half, which isn’t a bad spread at this point, honestly.  He actually gained ground this quarter because Bilbray had a lot of expenditures.  Bilbray being on Air Force One when it grounded firefighting aircraft in the midst of the blazes for several hours seems like it could be made into a campaign issue.  Bilbray has one arrow in the quiver, and that’s hating on illegal immigrants.  It defines him to the extent that he’s actually wistful for the imminent departure from Congress of Tom Tancredo.  I’m confident about keeping this in the number 3 position for now, although Leibham must demonstrate support above the Busby ceiling here.

4)) CA-41. Incumbent: Jerry Lewis.  Main challengers: Tim Prince, Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean, others.  Last month: 8.  Boxer number: 43.  I’m shooting this one back up, as events on the ground have shifted.  First of all, the investigations have restarted, with one Lewis staffer trying to deny a grand jury subpoena.  Second, the Brent Wilkes trial has taken a bizarre turn, leading some to wonder if attorneys are setting up Wilkes to flip on the other Congresscritters he bribed, including Lewis.  So the legal cases are hampering him.  What’s more, new candidates have entered the race.  Tim Prince is officially in, and he’s trying to keep his profile up in the district.  I’ll have more on Dr. Ramirez-Dean later, but she’s also a candidate.  Suffice to say that we will not have the same situation where Lewis handpicked his opponent in 2006.  There will be an actual election.

5) CA-42. Incumbent: Gary Miller.  Main challenger: Ron Shepston.  Last month: 5.  Boxer number: 41.  This is yet another area where the recent wildfires may affect the dynamic of the race.  While Gary Miller was voting against health care for children and keeping a low profile from federal investigators, Ron Shepston walked out of a candidate training summit to find his home in Silverado Canyon being threatened by the Santiago fire.  He got right to work helping local firefighting efforts.  With all of the human interest stories I’ve seen around Southern California the past week, I can’t believe I didn’t see this one: a candidate for Congress pitching in and showing leadership through helping defend his home and the homes of his neighbors from fires.  It’s powerful.  Shepston needs something to click with a larger base of support (his fundraising last quarter was around $25K) and this could be it.

6) CA-45.  Incumbent: Mary Bono.  Main challenger: Paul Clay.  Last month: 10.  Boxer number: 49.  Now that there’s an actual candidate in Paul Clay, I can raise this closer to the level where it should rightfully be.  It remains to be seen whether or not Clay is viable, but certainly the Palm Springs progressive community has been active and vocal and will push to unseat Mary Bono this time around.  Bono immunized herself a bit by voting with Democrats or SCHIP, but there’s still a long record of not supporting the needs of the district.  And marrying a fellow Congressman, to me, shows that she’s really part of the DC establishment and not the area.

7) CA-44.  Incumbent: Ken Calvert.  Main challenger: Bill Hedrick.  Last month: 6.  Boxer number: 45.  Ken Calvert still has an ethical cloud hanging over his head, has a terrible voting record, supported the Dirty Tricks initiative in its initial incarnation, and Bill Hedrick is on the attack.  This is an email he sent out recently, in response to a made up controversy about flag-folding that Calvert decided to take the lead on:

Like many of you, I was amazed that Congressman Calvert’s October 25, 2007 emailed newsletter consisted of a garbled interpretation of American history, Pilgrims, and a controversy regarding the “constituent service” of selling American flags, etc., rather than the real and immediate crisis facing residents of the 44th Congressional District-wildfires and the tragic loss suffered by Californians […]

I join others in praying for an end to the fires and God’s blessing on the victims and firefighters. We need engaged
representatives who will fight full-force to make our federal government responsive here and now.

Projecting an image of a do-nothing Congressman is right in line with what will work next November, IMO.  Hedrick is doing a good job attacks, but needs to make sure he has the resources to fight in this district.

8) CA-24. Incumbent: Elton Gallegly.  Main challengers: Mary Pallant, Chip Fraser, Brett Wagner, Jill Martinez?  Last month: 4  Boxer number: 47.  I just don’t think Elton Gallegly’s retiring this time around, and while I think that if he did there could be some competition here, he far outstrips the rest of the field in money and name ID.  I’d really like to see a viable alternative here because it might help downticket races (SD-19!), but none is forthcoming as of yet.  I like Mary Pallant a lot but an $1,100 3rd quarter isn’t going to cut it.

9) CA-52. Incumbent: None.  Republican challenger: Duncan L. Hunter.  Democratic challengers: Jim Hester, Mike Lumpkin.  Last month: 7.  Boxer number: 44.  Mike Lumpkin raised some serious money, around $50,000 in a short amount of time, to challenge this open seat.  I still think that it’s going to be hard to run against someone who will be serving in Iraq or Afghanistan during the election, potentially, and in addition, Duncan Hunter the pére has raised his profile enough that low-information Republicans will go to the polls thinking that he’s the candidate, giving a fake level of incumbency to his namesake.

10) CA-03.  Incumbent: Dan Lungren.  Main challenger: Bill Durston.  Last month: 9.  Boxer number: 42.  Nothing much to report here, although Bill Durston does have a MySpace page.  Akogun’s reports on the race have been very enlightening.  Give it up for candidates doing the hard work in red counties.

Wow, Doolittle’s getting it from members of his own party now.

Political pressure on GOP Rep. John Doolittle grew Wednesday as a fellow California House Republican said it would be best if Doolittle didn’t run for re-election.

GOP Rep. John Campbell of Orange County became the first House member to say publicly Wednesday what other lawmakers and aides are saying privately – that Doolittle should step aside and not run for re-election.

“I am very concerned about the situation in that district and our ability to comfortably hold what is a safe Republican district,” Campbell said in an interview with The Associated Press.

“Certainly the polling shows that he’s in a difficult position and I do think it would be best if he didn’t seek re-election,” Campbell said.

Here’s the good news: Doolittle’s response.

Doolittle was defiant in a written statement responding to Campbell’s comments.

“I hope John Campbell never has to experience what Julie and I have been going through the past 3 and a quarter years,” he said. “If he ever does, he will truly understand how frustrating it can be for people to attack your honor and integrity.”

And the chair of the Republican delegation in California, himself a target in 2008, came running to Doolittle’s aid:

The head of the California Republican House delegation, Rep. David Dreier, R-San Dimas, offered words of support Wednesday.

“It’s up to John Doolittle and John Doolittle says he’s running for re-election,” Dreier said. “And obviously he’s got lots of challenges with which he’s trying to deal, but he’s a good, hardworking member and we’ll see what happens. It’s very early on.”

Expect “Dreier and Doolittle: Perfect Together” to come up in CA-26 messaging.

I love “Republicans in disarray” stories, don’t you?

If you go check out the 3rd quarter numbers, you’ll see an interesting recent change in David Dreier’s behavior. Here are the net contributions (after refunds) for David Dreier by quarter:

Q1: $20.275.00
Q2: $39,082.84
Q3: $261,975.00

This last quarter’s take is more than one and a half times the entire amount he raised in the 2006 cycle — as Chair of Rules. He should be worried, Russ Warner has $193,554.60 Cash on Hand.

OK, I’m getting this in just under the wire.  Time for the House roundup for September.  There are a little over 13 months until Election Day, and with the end of the 3rd quarter on Sunday (donate), this election is really not that far away.  In fact, CQ Politics has put out their initial assessment of the House landscape.  It’s favorable for Democrats, but predictably, there are only two California seats on that radar: CA-04 and CA-11.  But there have been a lot of developments in the other races throughout the state as well.

I’m going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup.  I’m also, as usual, including the “Boxer number.”  Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is.  If I put “57,” that means Boxer received 57% of the vote.  Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)

First, let’s look at the one threatened seat currently held by a Democrat.

1) CA-11 (McNerney).  CQ Politics has the seat “Leans Democratic,” and only two Democratic seats are less safe (Tim Mahoney in FL-16 and Nancy Boyda in KS-02).  Dean Andal has the funds to make a challenge here, and he’s become a born-again environmentalist, which is curious considering his prior anti-environmental history.  But McNerney has done himself no favors.  His bungled rhetoric during the Iraq debate in August was met with outcry, and this week’s vote to condemn MoveOn.org, an organization that gave him over $50,000 in 2006, didn’t exactly enthuse activists either.  He tried to respond by blasting Rush Limbaugh’s comments and asking that he be taken off the air; I’m not sure how that jibes with the First Amendment.  McNerney will clearly have a lot of DCCC incumbency protection, but this is obviously a race that won’t be easy, and McNerney is making it difficult for activists to continue to support him.

Now, to the top 10 challengers.

1) CA-04 (Doolittle).  Last month: 1.  Boxer number: 40.  This is one of six Republican-held seats listed in CQ’s ratings as “No Clear Favorite,” and one of only two where the incumbent is running for re-election (the other is Robin Hayes against netroots hero Larry Kissell in NC-08).  Charlie Brown, who has a  great interview in CQ this week, actually announced his campaign just a few weeks ago as part of a barnstorming tour.  As for John Doolittle, his legal woes continue.  Eleven years’ worth of documents have been subpoenaed by the Justice Department, as part of the Abramoff case.  Doolittle is refusing to comply with the subpoena, setting up what could be a Constitutional showdown.  Meanwhile, he has at least three high-profile primary challengers, and a lot of pressure within the district to resign.  The more candidates in the primary actually helps Doolittle, as it spreads out the vote.  If it’s a two-person primary, he could easily lose.  And Brown would be in excellent position to beat Doolittle if there’s a rematch.

2) CA-26 (Dreier).  Last month: 2.  Boxer number: 48.  Russ Warner, last seen at the Calitics Q3 event, has been busily raising money for the end of the quarter.  I’m told that the numbers will be better than Q2.  Warner has also gone on the offensive against David Dreier’s shameful voting record, being one of the first Congressional challengers to use the SCHIP vote as a campaign issue.  That’s going to be a big vote to highlight next year.  Meanwhile Dreier nearly caused an international incident in Colombia by sitting on a lectern, continued to whine about supposedly shoody treatment on the House Rules Committee (yeah, that never happened under Republicans), and had some shady connections with those who were trying to steal the Presidential election with the Dirty Tricks Initiative in California.

Of course, there’s a primary, but Hoyt Hilsman’s campaign website hasn’t been updated since July.  Russ Warner is running a professional campaign, and a good one thus far.

3) CA-50 (Bilbray).  Last month: 4.  Boxer number: 48.  Nick Leibham, who has two nice-looking dogs, is about to get the endorsement of Francine Busby for the Democratic primary, according to our man in San Diego. 

The field has been slowly clearing for a while now, with Michael Wray opting against a run and John Lee Evans running for School Board.  Steve Schechter has also filed FEC paperwork to run in the district, but this endorsement would line up the one major recognizable Democratic face in the district behind Leibham.  Putting to rest any remaining speculation that she might run again, much of the drama is likely over in the primary, leaving now more than a year of Bilbray-hunting.

Avoiding a primary would obviously be a plus for Leibham.  Meanwhile, Bilbray is being his usual brown-hating self, calling on the feds to pay local governments for the services spent on “illegal immigrants.”  This is immigrant bashing at its worst, but while it offends the conscience of the sane, his base is energized by these theatrics.  Leibham will have to do a better job of finding new voters than Busby did to have a shot at this district.

4) CA-24 (Gallegly).  Last month: 3.  Boxer number: 47.  I’m still keeping this race fairly high, maybe higher than it should be, because of the possibility of retirement.  We’ve seen the mass exodus of Republicans from the House, as the prospects for them regaining those plum committee chairmanships grow dim.  Gallegly says he’s running, but he resigned last year before un-resigning, so he’s not that credible a source.  So far, the only challenger in this district is Mary Pallant, who officially declared her candidacy this week.  Pallant is a fellow AD delegate of mine, and a very progressive Democrat.

In announcing her intent to run, Pallant emphasized her stance as a “progressive Democrat,” and invoked Roosevelt in her campaign theme, a Newer and Fairer Deal for the 21st Century. Her platform is described as ending the occupation of Iraq, she said, as well as implementing a universal single-payer healthcare system, seeking energy independence while enforcing environmental protections and pursuing economic strength and security through economic self-sufficiency.

Other candidates seem to be waiting this one out until they see if Gallegly actually runs. Jill Martinez, the candidate in 2006, is rumored to be running again, but hasn’t declared officially.  Brett Wagner kind of says he’s running, but his website hasn’t been updated since February.  Education activist Chip Fraser may run; he once walked from Ventura to the state Capitol to promote education reform.  The district is smaller than that!

5) CA-42 (Miller).  Last month: 5.  Boxer number: 41.  Ron Shepston and his team have been spending September making appearances and raising money.  He did both in a Blue America chat on Firedoglake.  Blue America support has in the past been crucial to Congressional success around the country.  Meanwhile, Gary Miller has been voting for endless war in Iraq and against children’s health care and S-CHIP.  That puts him in line with every other California Republican, but Miller is also incredibly corrupt.  Although, he claims that he is not under FBI scrutiny, which is an inspiring political message.

Miller agreed to an on-the-record, unrecorded interview with The Hill days before the August recess, in which he rejected the
notion that the FBI is investigating him.

On Jan. 31, 2007, the Los Angeles Times reported that Dick Singer, a spokesman for the city of Monrovia, Calif., said federal agents had interviewed city officials about a $10 million land deal in which Miller did not pay capital gains taxes.
Miller says no taxes were owed because he was forced to sell the land under threat of eminent domain.

Miller also pointed out that a “federal agent” could be any federal entity, such as the IRS. He said he wouldn’t be surprised if the IRS had questions after the liberal-leaning group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington filed a complaint to the federal agency against him in August 2006.

“I’m sure the IRS wanted to see the information. A federal agent could be anyone – anyone flashing a badge,” Miller said.

Though there’s not much new to report, these ethics concerns aren’t likely to go away, and a good candidate could capitalize on them, a la Charlie Brown with John Doolittle.

6) CA-44 (Calvert).  Last month: 7.  Boxer number: 45.  The Inland Empire was one of the areas where they were out gathering signatures for the Dirty Tricks initiative, before it cratered, and Ken Calvert was quoted in the article:

Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, also favors the system, saying it could help improve the state’s dismal voter-turnout rates. He said presidential candidates from both parties, who have written off California as a lock for the Democrats, would have to campaign in Inland Southern California and across the state.

“They’d have to be here, and that would create excitement,” he said. “People would think their vote matters.”

We’ll see if Bill Hedrick can make any hay out of that next November.  In addition to Calvert’s dismal voting record and serious corruption issues.  Calvert was one of 5 US Congressmen on a junket to the CNMI where rumors of sex tourism abound (Dana Rohrabacher and John Doolittle were on this trip as well).

7) CA-52 (open seat) Last month: 10.  Boxer number: 44.  There are new candidates on the Democratic side in this San Diego-area race.  Former Special Forces regular JIm Hester and ex-Navy SEAL Mike Lumpkin are running.  Lumpkin seems to be keeping a busy schedule and generating a little press, both offline and in the blogosphere; Markos wrote enthusiastically about him.  I still think it’s going to be hard to beat the son of Duncan Hunter, and hard to criticize him while he’s serving in Afghanistan or possibly Iraq.

8) CA-41 (Lewis).  Last month: 6.  Boxer number: 43.  Jerry Lewis has announced that he’s running for re-election again, so that puts the retirement rumors to rest. In addition, he’s managed to get the Justice Department drain the money swamp committed to investigating him:

The veteran prosecutor who’d been heading up the Lewis case has been forced into retirement, The Los Angeles Daily Journal reported yesterday (not available online). It knocks the investigation, already stalled, further off course.

Because of civil-service rules, a 25-year veteran of the U.S. attorney’s office who just recently took over the probe of Rep. Jerry Lewis must exit the office for good by the end of September, marking the third significant departure from the office’s corruption unit since Lewis first came under suspicion last year.

Michael Emmick, who first joined Los Angeles’s U.S. attorney’s office in 1982, has been serving under one-year appointments since 2004, after he triggered a contractual clause that will allow him to collect retirement benefits immediately upon leaving the office.

It’s highly unlikely that the Lewis investigation is going anywhere.  Furthermore, since Lewis will run again, it’s likely that Tim Prince, the likely challenger, won’t.  Worse, Louie Contreras, the candidate in 2006 who didn’t campaign at all past the primary, and may have been hand-picked by Lewis himself as a sock-puppet challenger, appears to be running again.

9) CA-03 (Lungren).  Last month: unranked.  Boxer number: 42.  In my preference to highlight races where there’s actually an announced candidate, I’m highlighting this one.  Dan Lungren is fairly entrenched as an incumbent, but 2006 challenger Bill Durston is running again.  Who knows?  Maybe the Charlie Brown magic will wear off on Durston and propel him to make a race out of it in this Republican district.  Here’s his website.

10) CA-45 (Bono).  Last month: 8.  Boxer number: 49.  I’m breaking my “no candidate” rule because I want to see this potentially competitive district be challenged, and I do believe someone will eventually step up.  But more important than that, I wanted to mention that someone in Congress is named Miss Mary Mack.  Notably, Bono was the only California Republican to vote for SCHIP, which suggests that she knows she has to moderate her views in the district.

Special mention: Because it ought to be mentioned that Dana Rohrabacher thinks the premier of China wants to poison the President.  This guy is in Congress, by the way.

Last night I spent a couple hours in the hills above Hollywood with bloggers and supporters at a fundraiser for Russ Warner.  Many of you know that Warner’s district in CA-26, held by Bush rubber stamp David Dreier, offers the best chance in Southern California to flip a Congressional seat in 2008.  Jane Hamsher of Firedoglake was there, and she offers this report:

Russ had a really moving tale to tell about his son Greg who served 17 months in Iraq, and how he was motivated to run as a result of his experiences there. Greg is now in West Point.

Says Russ:

“By the end of 2007, 1.3 billion dollars will have been spent on the war just from my district, CA-26 alone – which is enough to provide medical insurance for 150,000 children. It’s time that we end this war and bring the money home to be used for our children and the future of this country.”

Russ indicates that he would not vote for the $50 billion supplemental that Bush is now asking for, and believes that the same thing is happening to the United States that happened to the Soviet Union when it went into Afghanistan – we’re being bled dry by Bush and Dreier’s ill-conceived war.

Blue America is trying to build a surge of support for Warner leading into the end of the third quarter.  Warner is within a couple thousand dollars of $100,000 raised on ActBlue.

(pictured from bottom left: Jane Hamsher, Russ Warner, Howie Klein of Down With Tyranny, me, Todd Beeton of MyDD, Lucas Gardner of The Battle School.)