Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup.  We’re just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus.  There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs.  One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now – it’ll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.

We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation.  So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing).  Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.

FEC disclosures (you can search by candidate name)

Voter registration by Congressional district.

Swing State Project fundraising roundup

On to the report…

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

1. CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney.  Challenger: Dean Andal.  Cook number: R+3.  % Dem turnout in the Presidential primary: 53.7%.  DCCC defended.  This remains the only opportunity for Republicans in the state, and it is starting to slip away.  Dean Andal is proving to be incredibly weak at fundraising, having raised under $200,000 for FOUR STRAIGHT QUARTERS.  He’s not going to be able to get up on TV, and his opponent has not only outraised him but will get about a million dollars in ad help from the DCCC.  Freedom’s Watch threw in a few anti-McNerney robocalls, but that’s really no match for the political muscle of the D-Trip.  Plus, there’s a brewing Andal scandal over his participation in passing privileged information and securing developer contracts for a San Joaquin Delta College contractor.  As for McNerney, his vote for the FISA bill has caused outcry in the district, and national groups like Blue America won’t be lending a hand.  He has changed his position on medical marijuana in response to constituents, a symbolic piece of support with activists.  But I think he’s largely on his own in this race.

McNerney: raised $416K in the second quarter, $1.37m cash on hand

Andal: raised $174K Q2, $663K CoH

REPUBLICAN SEATS

I’m going to do four tiers in setting apart the top seats where we have challenges to Republican incumbents.

First Tier

1. CA-04.  Last month: 1.  Open seat.  Dem. challenger: Charlie Brown.  Repub. challenger: Tom McClintock.  PVI #: R+11.  % Dem turnout in Feb. primary: 44.7.  DCCC targeted.  Tom McClintock actually raised quite a bit of money in the second quarter, but it all got plowed into the divisive primary with Doug Ose.  Plus, he was able to go above individual spending caps because of the “Millionaire’s Amendment,” which was recently ruled unconstitutional, putting constitutional literalist McClintock in a bind over what to do with that money.  We’ve seen real awkwardness from McClintock over how to handle disgraced incumbent John Doolittle, with shows of support and rejections happening on alternate days.  Meanwhile, Charlie Brown is humming along.  He has a 6-1 cash on hand advantage, and he’ll also be the recipient of some ad love from the DCCC.  His courageous stand against the FISA bill, outreach to parts of the district harmed by wildfires, and the release of a good energy plan which stresses tax credits for alternative energy and government fleets going renewable (and opposing opening up new lands for offshore drilling, in line with the “Use It Or Lose It” plan from Speaker Pelosi).  Brown was beloved at Netroots Nation and looks good in polling.  This is obviously our biggest-priority pickup.

Brown: raised $355K, $675K CoH

McClintock: raised $1.27m, $117 CoH

Second Tier

2. CA-46.  Last month: 4.  Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher.  Challenger: Debbie Cook (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6.  % Dem. turnout: 47.2.  I’m still concerned that the numbers aren’t quite there in the district, but I’m upping Cook this high because I have to acknowledge her achievements.  First, she’s outraised Rohrabacher two quarters in a row, and from what I’m being told, this has a lot to do with Dana and his wife (also his fundraiser) calling Republican backers and getting the phone slammed in their ears.  The Cook Political Report moved the race to Likely Republican, the only such move among competitive California races.  And there are indications that the D-Trip is at least taking a look at this race.  Most of this is happening because Cook is a compelling candidate.  Read her interview with Open Left or watch her interview with Talking Points Memo and you can see why.  Her environmental activism, competent fiscal management in Huntington Beach, and the fact that she’s not a ridiculously corrupt nutjob like Dana Rohrabacher makes for a fantastic profile.  This is probably too high, but there are some great signs here.

Cook: raised $110K, $97K CoH

Rohrabacher: raised $86K, $388 CoH

3. CA-50.  Last month: 5.  Incumbent: Brian Bilbray.  Challenger: Nick Leibham.  PVI #: R+5.  % Dem. turnout: 50.8.  DCCC targeted.  Nick Leibham outraised Brian Bilbray in the second quarter, and took in a nice haul of $245K in his own right.  He’s been gaining some attack points for criticizing Bilbray on wanting to debate on the radio and not in the district, and calling on other states to drill offshore but not California, an incoherent position.  The D-Trip put Leibham on their Red to Blue emerging races list, and dropped radio ads in the district tying him to Bush (MP3 here).  Leibham needs to articulate an agenda rather than just slam Bilbray forever, and that agenda needs to be a true contrast, but there is some movement here.

Leibham: raised $245K, $267K CoH

Bilbrary: raised $210K, $528K CoH

4. CA-26.  Last month: 2.  Incumbent: David Dreier.  Challenger: Russ Warner.  PVI #: R+4.  % Dem. turnout: 50.2.  DCCC targeted.  Warner was very focused on fundraising in June and yet came up short of beating David Dreier in the second quarter.  The problem is that Dreier has nearly two million dollars in the bank, so there’s a nearly 40-1 cash disadvantage, including campaign debts.  And despite the positive signs in the district, that’s tough to overcome.  Warner is going to need outside help, and the Bush Rubber Stamp project is a step in the right direction, but I don’t know if they’ll have the kind of money needed to meet the challenge.  There’s not much here to get me excited at this point.

Warner: raised $161K, $125K CoH

Dreier: raised $247K, $1.9m CoH

5. CA-45.  Last month: 3.  Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack.  Challenger: Julie Bornstein.  PVI #: R+3.  % Dem. turnout: 51.3.  The district is ready for a Democrat, and the symbiosis between Manuel Perez’ hotly contested Assembly campaign and Bornstein’s is going to help her in ways that aren’t being respected by the experts.  I still think this race is being undervalued.  However, Bornstein has been fairly invisible, from what I can tell, since the June primary.  And Bornstein got significantly outraised in Q2 as Mary Bono recognized the challenge she is facing can only be overcome with money.  In cash on hand she’s not far out of sight, however, and if Bornstein proves to be a solid and aggressive campaigner and benefits from increased Latino turnout in the Eastern Coachella Valley, there’s still a shot here.

Bornstein: raised $125K, $121K CoH

Bono: raised $336K, $421K CoH

Third Tier

6. CA-03.  Last month: 6.  Incumbent: Dan Lungren.  Challenger: Bill Durston. PVI #: R+7. % Dem turnout: 51.8.  This remains my sleeper pick in California.  The fundraising numbers were close, with Dan Lungren raising $173K to Durston’s $125K.  Lungren is trying to pivot to the center, coming out for nuclear warhead reduction with Russia, and the “X Prize” for battery technology promoted by John McCain.  But he’s firmly in the drill now, do nothing camp (despite voting against the “Use It Or Lose It” plan), and he’s lying about Democratic plans for tax increases.  Then there’s this bit of hilarity:

At a town hall meeting a few months ago Rep. Dan Lungren (R-Gold River) was adamant about denying citizenship to babies born in the United States to non-citizens. He lumped the infants into the same category as immigrants who cross the border illegally. He went so far as to sponsor a bill to deny citizenship to babies born to non-citizens.

In a classic flip-flop, Congo Dan “is backing the bill giving the Department of Homeland Security 30 days to process visas for entertainers,” says the Los Angeles Times.

Durston has publicly challenged Lungren to debates, and has a nifty comparison chart on his website that shows he’s truly running a campaign of contrast.  Keep an eye on this one.

Durston raised $125K, $189K CoH

Lungren raised $173K, $615K CoH

7. CA-52.  Last month: 7.  Open seat.  Dem. challenger: Mike Lumpkin.  Repub. challenger: Duncan D. Hunter.  PVI #: R+9.  % Dem. turnout: 47.2.  Calitics got to chat with Mike Lumpkin at Netroots Nation, and we were fairly impressed.  He talked up all the “Conservative Republicans for Lumpkin” signs he’s seeing in the district.  One thing he mentioned worried me, however: well over half of the voters in the primary thought they were voting for Duncan Hunter’s father, the incumbent.  That makes this almost not an open seat, and with Hunter’s fundraising advantage, it’s going to be an uphill battle.

Lumpkin raised $129K, $54K CoH

Hunter raised $338K, $198K CoH

Also Noted

8. CA-44.  Last month: 8.  Incumbent: Ken Calvert.  Challenger: Bill Hedrick (Responsible Plan endorser).  PVI #: R+6.  % Dem. turnout: 49.3.  Bill Hedrick tried to hit Ken Calvert over earmarks, and certainly there’s still a lot of smoke surrounding Calvert’s dirty dealings.  But in a low information district, Hedrick needs a lot of money for name ID, moeny he doesn’t have.

9. CA-42.  Last month: 11.  Incumbent: Gary Miller.  Challenger: Ed Chau.  PVI #: R+10.  % Dem. turnout: 44.0. Ed Chau has only $12,000 in the bank compared to Gary Miller’s $950,000.  That’s game, set and match, but questions have been raised once again about Miller’s potentially criminal actions (like his financial stake in getting an OC tollway built), so indictment is still on the fringes of possibility here.

10. CA-48.  Last month: 12.  Incumbent: John Campbell.  Challenger: Steve Young.  PVI #: R+8.  % Dem. turnout: 45.1.  Young is touting a poll (and I like that he’s touting it on ActBlue) showing that he’s up six points after biographical and issue information is distributed.  The problem is he has no money and lots of campaign debt, so how will that information get out there?  

11. CA-24.  Last month: 9.  Incumbent: Elton Gallegly.  Challenger: Marta Jorgensen.  PVI #: R+5.  % Dem. turnout: 50.6. Marta Jorgensen has a fairly nice website, but the money isn’t there to make this all that competitive, and she’ll need an Elton Gallegly slip-up. (Of course, she spent $1,375 on the primary and won, so ya never know…)

12. CA-41.  Last month: 10.  Incumbent: Jerry Lewis.  Challenger: Tim Prince.  PVI #: R+9.  % Dem. turnout: 46.3.  Tim Prince is also challenging Jerry Lewis on earmark requests, but Lewis has been pretty adept at escaping scrutiny in the district.

This is funny (and Charlie Brown’s people confirmed this with me).  

As Mike Spence just reported, Doug Ose failed to sign his ballot when he voted at the Placer County Registrar of Voters this morning. I was actually there with Rick Staats and we witnessed the whole episode. Here’s what happened when Ose realized he hadn’t signed his ballot. The election officials had to get a key to unlock and reopen the highly secured ballot box and retrieve his invalid ballot.  In true elitist fashion he was unwilling to take responsibility for his incompetence, muttering under his breath “this is bull ****!”

Since when is ballot security bull ****?

Keep in mind that yesterday Ose had McNally Temple employee Richard Robinson call the Registrar’s office and ask to have someone there to “show Doug how to vote.”  He needs to be shown how to vote?  Guess he didn’t know how things work in Placer County because he has never voted here before.  Maybe he thought we vote differently here in a conservative county.

Of course, there wasn’t such a foul-up with Red County’s hero Tom McClintock, because he’s not eligible to vote in the district at all.  Rumor was he was flying down to Los Angeles on election day to cast his ballot.  So basically, among the 3 major candidates in CA-04, only Charlie Brown actually knows how to vote there.

Absolutely huge news from out of CA-04.  On the eve of the primary, with Tom McClintock and Doug Ose locked in a death struggle of a primary, spending over $4 million dollars because they think the nomination is a prelude to an easy walk to a victory in November and a seat in Congress, Charlie Brown’s campaign has released an internal poll showing him leading both Republicans.

The survey of 400 likely General Election voters was conducted by Pete Brodnitz of the Benenson Strategy Group on May 14th and 15th.  The margin of error was +/- 4.9%.

Despite a $4 million advertising blitz by the GOP frontrunners, the poll shows Brown leading Ose 38% to 34%, and leading McClintock 42% to 40%.

The survey also showed a generic ballot between the Democratic and Republican candidates for Congress tied at 43%, with self identification of voters moving sharply away from the often cited voter registration statistics of the district.

“The numbers confirm that district four voters want real local leadership, and they want change,” Brown said.  “No matter which career politician wins the GOP Primary on Tuesday night, this race will continue to offer a clear contrast between a partisan approach that has failed America , and a country first approach that leads by example to solve problems.”

It’s an internal poll, and internal polls are often favorable to those who release them.  But Brodnitz is a solid pollster and there’s no reason to believe that Brown hasn’t benefited by staying out of the primary scrap, while cementing his excellent reputation among voters in the 4th District.  

But more than that, the internals of the poll show that voters in this so-called “red” district are desperate for change and believe in Charlie’s ability to help bring it about.  On the flip:

The right-track/wrong-track numbers in this poll are 18/70.  That’s astounding for a district John Doolittle has represented for years.  But the killer number is this: 37% of those polled self-identified as Republicans, and 35% as Democrats.  In August of 2006, the numbers were 42% Republican and 27% Democratic.  That’s an enormous swing in less than two years, and remember, Brown almost pulled off the upset in 2006 when the district was far more Republican.  Brown’s net favorables are higher than any of his challengers as well.

In the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans among DTS voters 50-34.  If that’s what to expect in this district in November, Brown’s going to win this thing.  I know there are a lot of preconceived notions out there that this is Republican country and Brown faces an uphill battle, but one thing is very clear to me – there are NO MORE Republican districts left, and a strong Democrat can win anywhere in the country.  And Charlie Brown is one of the strongest we’ve got.

Very exciting stuff in this poll.

Some thoughts as we head to Tuesday:

• I thought I’d have time to put together a monthly roundup for May, but it never came together, and the primary is going to change those analyses a bit, so I’ll put something out after the primaries.

• I have to correct an error.  On Saturday I wrote that Marta Jorgensen had dropped out of the race in CA-24.  She had, but she recently got back into the race and is focusing on turning out new voters in Northern Santa Barbara County around Lompoc.  This is a crucial effort to activate Hispanic voters who traditionally have not turned out, and I both salute Ms. Jorgensen for her efforts and apologize for the error.  Hopefully she can visit Calitics and fill us in on that effort up in Lompoc.

• Doug Ose has loaned his campaign another $600,000 in the waning days before the GOP primary against Tom McClintock in CA-04.  This primary now exceeds $4 million dollars, and it’s hard to spend that much in that district.  McClintock pulled out of a debate earlier this week, and there was the Pete Wilson savaging as well.  Reading the tea leaves, I don’t think Ose would make that extra investment if he wasn’t close to nailing this down, but I could be wrong.

• In CA-03, Bill Durston offered comment on Dan Lungren’s Hawaiian pool party revealed this week by ABC News:

“Lungren’s behavior is disgusting. He claims to be a leader in ethics reform, then he turns around and subverts House ethics rules. This is just one of many examples of Lungren’s hypocrisy […] The people of the 3rd Congressional District deserve better representation than a career politician like Dan Lungren who sells out to special interests. I’ve been caring for the people of our district for over 25 years as an emergency physician. I believe we have an emergency in our government. I’m running for Congress to help restore government of, by, and for the people.”

I like it.  Durston is trying to put up a big number in the June 3 primary, despite running unopposed, to show his strength in this challenge.

• And it’s not primary-related, but I think we have the first ever Calitics mention in the LA Times in this story about Laura Richardson.  Hey guys, you could have used my name, it’s right above the title….

UPDATE (by Brian): I have said before that some of the IEs have really angered me. It seems that at least a couple of these annoying IEs have something in common: EdVoice. Chris Cabaldon’s former lobbying organization employer has been quite busy this year. In SD-23, they have the cheezy “Carbon-neutral voting” mailers.  In AD-8, EdVoice has gone all in for their former CEO, Cabaldon.  Randy Bayne has the story on a negative mailer on Mariko Yamada for supporting vocational education for mentally retarded Californians. Not cool.

(This is an issue that’s starting to reach critical mass, and Charlie Brown is at the forefront of it.  Between recent reports about record numbers of veteran suicides and foreclosures in military towns tripling the average rate, the care and treatment of our veterans is an absolute disgrace.  And it has fallen to leaders like Brown, BEFORE reaching Congress, to show the compassion and wisdom to get those who served this country what they need.  I can’t have more pride in how he’s run this campaign. – promoted by David Dayen)

As many of you know, back in 2006, first time candidate and Retired USAF Lt. Col. Charlie Brown came from obscurity to within less than 9,000 votes (or 3%) of victory in a district that had been electing Republicans by 30 point margins just two years before.

I worked on Charlie’s campaign in 2006, and I’m proud to be serving Charlie again in 2008. I didn’t come back because I enjoy the 16-hour days. I certainly didn’t come back because of the paychecks. I came back because there’s something different about a “typical day” on the Charlie Brown for Congress campaign—something that can’t be described in sound bytes or talking points…something so important, you want the world to experience it with you…

You want them to hear the desperate cries of the Iraq Veteran who contacts the campaign to say he is contemplating suicide.  Or the e-mail from the married father of two who already tried.  You want them to meet the Gold Star mother who calls for gas money, so she can afford to take one of the guys from her son’s unit to the VA for rehab.  Or the Vietnam Vet who has weeks to live because of Agent Orange exposure, and has had his VA benefits denied for years.  And the list goes on, and on and on…

Every day, these are just some of the people who are reaching out-from across the country—to the Charlie Brown for Congress Campaign.  

They’re not calling to volunteer, contribute, schedule a meeting or inquire about a policy position.  They aren’t even calling to express their support or opposition to Charlie’s candidacy.  

They called to ask for help.

It begs the question, why would anyone call a Congressional Challenger who has never held public office before for help?

You have to remember that Charlie Brown is no ordinary politician—in fact he has, in the span of less than two election cycles, transcended politics as most of us know it.

Charlie’s making history not by virtue of who he is (though one could argue that a Congressman who is a career military officer, husband of a veteran, and father to a son who has done 4 rotations in Iraq is far from typical these days), but what he is doing to address one of the many OLD problems on which politicians have over promised and under delivered for years-the plight of America’s war veterans.

I came back to fight for Charlie because I knew that this campaign took a different approach to solving problems—leadership by example. With Charlie’s “Promises Kept Veteran’s Charity Challenge,” we’re seeing community based organizations that fill in the gaps for veterans get the support they so badly need.  The 5% of campaign contributions that Charlie is giving these groups helps to keep the lights on at shelters, supply those places with blankets and food and office supplies, and help pay for qualified counselors to do outreach on the streets.

But the commitment of Charlie’s campaign goes beyond money.  It’s a frequently something even more valuable–a live voice on the other end of the line when crisis comes.    

And when those calls come, it’s not about winning and losing elections—it’s about saving lives.

The stories of veterans who call us very often break your heart—but they also remind us what a different kind of campaign can mean for people in need right now—long before voters go to the polls next November.  

It also inspires hope—because as we work with callers to help them find solutions, we can’t help but think what a little Charlie Brown in Washington could mean for hundreds of thousands of veterans who are waiting in line for benefits, or struggling to deal with invisible scars, or trying to rebuild lives that have been shattered by war.  

Or what it can mean on energy independence, healthcare, or so many other “old problems” where the results from Washington simply don’t match the rhetoric we’ve been hearing for years.

My entire life, I was brought up to believe that honesty, hard work and determination make up the character of a person. And if you give a little back and fight for those who can’t stand up for themselves, then you have done your share. I fight for Charlie because he embodies what I was raised to believe: that integrity and a sense of duty (not political ambition) win out at the end of the day.

I am flush with inspiration, and every time the phone rings, that much more flush with perspective.  But I know that true change cannot be accomplished in a vacuum—and that’s why I wanted to share what’s been happening here on the ground with the netroots—and I hope you will share it also.

The two leading Republicans in this race-Doug Ose and Tom McClintock—have spent $4 million dollars in 4 months.  Once you get through their endless stream of attack ads, their message comes down to “vote for me I’m more Republican than he is”— and if you are looking for someone to take action, listen, or offer your family a little hope or dignity before November—look somewhere else…  

…I say look no further than Charlie Brown.

Neil Pople

Director of Online Communications

It’s time for some random links and a good ole fashioned open thread.

• Rather than having a blog, Capitol Weekly decided to post an email thread between the beloved around these parts Steve Maviglio and his counterpart in the SenateAssembly Morgan Crinklaw.  Steve naturally starts his first response by paraphrasing an old SNL skits and calls Morgan an “ignorant slut”. (Note: Morgan’s employer corrected)
• Another gay victory from the CA Supremes.  No longer can doctors refuse to treat us because we are gay and their religion does not approve.
• Paid sick leave for all! Ok, it has only passed the Assembly, but it is cause to celebrate.
• McClintock decided to be a whiney brat and refused to show up to the last debate with Doug Ose.  About 180 well paying guests didn’t get the smackdown show they had paid good money to attend.  McClintock’s excuse was that the also rans were not invited, that and he is sulking about Ose’s attack ads.
• The AFT just informed the Mt. Shasta Brewing Co., based in Weed, CA that they can no longer use bottle caps that read “Try Legal Weed”.  Evidently, alluding to marijuana on beer is not allowed.  The town is named after a dude named Abner Weed and has nothing to do with pot.

That’s all I got.  Any FP’ers who feel inspired, go ahead and add to this thread.

The Black Key’s new album rocks.  Here is “Strange Times”

Being called an unreliable and somewhat treacherous partisan might be cool in a general election, but it won’t do Tom McClintock much good in the primary against former Rep. Doug Ose in the 4th District.  McClintock, a former Gov and Lt. Gov. candidate, does not have a fan in former Republican Governor Pete Wilson.

Wilson is holding a press conference today to talk about McClintock. The press notice about the conference says Wilson will share at least one opinion about the man:

“I could never count on McClintock. He was always the first to criticize, but the last to help his team.”

Ouch! Either way, Charlie Brown keeps chugging along in the Democratic race.  He’ll face whichever bruised victor emerges from the GOP primary. You can find Charlie on the Calitics ActBlue page.

I’ll have another House roundup probably by Monday, but I wanted to toss out a few items of note:

• CA-26: I have to applaud Russ Warner’s rapid response team for jumping on David Dreier’s voting record immediately and choosing the issues where he can reveal that Dreier is not the moderate he portrays as being to his district.  On the heels of yesterday’s House vote on the GI Bill, Warner released this:

David Dreier voted against a bill to increase educational opportunities for veterans today.  The legislation expands the education benefits veterans receive under the GI bill to restore the promise of a full, four-year college education.  It passed the House with broad bi-partisan support, 256 to 166.

“I would have voted differently on this bill,” said Russ Warner, a successful small businessman and the Democratic candidate for Congress from California’s 26th district.  “It’s important to make the veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan part of an American economic recovery, just like the veterans of World War II were.  They put their lives on the line for us, and deserve to be able to come home and go to school if they so choose.  We need new leaders with new priorities in Washington, and that’s why I’m running for Congress.”

Russ Warner’s eldest son, Greg, is in the U.S. Army and served in Iraq for 17 months.  Upon his return, he challenged his father to make a difference by running for Congress.

Down With Tyranny has more, including a great pic of Warner and his son Greg.

• CA-41: Please take some time to read IndieinSF’s piece introducing the community to Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean, a progressive candidate running for slimebucket Jerry Lewis’ seat in the San Bernardino area.  It’s also linked at DWT.  The post talks about the picture on the ground and the changing demographics in the district.  Our growth potential in California is dependent on winning seats like this.  I’ve met Dr. Dean and found her to be someone of character.  She has also endorsed the Repsonsible Plan To End The War in Iraq, elements of which passed through the House yesterday (Rep. Jay Inslee of Washington even mentioned it on the House floor).

• CA-42: Next week, Ron Shepston has two fundraisers with Amb. Joseph Wilson.  One is in Oak Canyon Park near Irvine on Wednesday, May 21, (purchase tickets here), and one is in Santa Monica on Thursday, May 22 (info here).  Ron also snagged the endorsement of DFA Orange County.

• CA-24: Mary Pallant’s interview at Blog Talk Radio is worth a listen.

• CA-04: Try to get the logic of this: by taking welfare payments in per diem checks from the state, Tom McClintock was denying benefits to soldiers.  That’s the premise of Doug Ose’s new ad.  Quite a logical leap, but potentially effective.

• CA-03: Bill Durston may be unopposed in the June 3 primary, but he’s running very hard and trying to pick up as many decline-to-state voters as possible.  He’s actually running a GOTV operation.  The gambit here is to prove to donors and the political establishment that CA-03 is competitive.  I also think it makes sense just as practice for the general and for name recognition.

• CA-04: The Club for Growth, whose record this year in primaries is actually a little mixed, has released an ad attacking Doug Ose in his race against Tom McClintock.  There’s plenty of outside money on both sides in this one.

• CA-42: Communications Workers of America, Southern California Council has endorsed Ron Shepston.  It’s somewhat notable considering that Ed Chau got the Cal Labor Fed endorsement.

Anything else you’re hearing, please put it in the comments.  This is an open-source elections thread.