Cross-posted from the CA League of Conservation Voters (CLCV) blog, Groundswell. 

By Mike Young and Beth Gunston

Late Wednesday, CLCV-endorsed candidate Assemblymember Bill Monning was greeted with some fantastic news: Senator Sam Blakeslee announced that he will not seek re-election. Despite being the incumbent, Blakeslee decided that defending his seat would not be worth the effort since decennial redistricting shifted this coastal district to a new 16% Democratic registration advantage. If that were not insurmountable enough, much of the new district that stretches from Santa Cruz to San Luis Obespo overlaps areas that Monning currently represents in the Assembly.  

In 2010, it was largely argued that Blakeslee only won his race against Democrat candidate and environmental champion John Laird because then-Governor Schwarzenegger made that contest a special election where Democratic voters tend to have extremely low turnout. Whether that's true or not, Blakeslee felt he had no viable chance this time around. Without a serious primary challenger and with the incumbent ducking out, Monning is in a great position to essentially walk into the seat. This will be a big pick-up for the environment. Monning (100% CLCV score) will be a much needed breath of fresh air from Blakeslee (21% CLCV score), especially in the Senate where environmental priorities have had a much more difficult time passing.  Monning is well regarded for his environmental health work around toxics and pesticides, and has been specifically outspoken about the recent introduction of methyl iodide in the state.

But while Monning’s expected win is a great for the environment, it's time to look this gift horse in the mouth. With little hope of a contender to pit against Monning, the polluter interests that helped Blakeslee win in 2010 will likely now spend their money to defeat a more vulnerable target: state Senator Fran Pavley. Pavley, an environmental leader who authored California's landmark global warming laws, has a much more difficult race this year as redistricting has put her in a Senate seat against Tony Strickland with a very narrow registration advantage. In 2008, despite his 2% record on the environment including countless votes against bills to increase renewable energy, Strickland reinvented himself as a renewable energy expert and narrowly won his current Senate seat. With environmental advocates just one seat away from a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate and environmental champion Fran Pavley potentially being ousted, you can bet big polluters will spend more heavily on this race than any others.

So while the prospects for Bill Monning look fantastic, the consequence may be that we will need to work even harder to protect Fran Pavley. Still, much can change between now and Election Day, and nobody quite knows how the top two primary system will change the political landscape. All we know for sure is that in 2012 we must remain vigilant and work towards electing an environmental majority in the Senate. That way we’ll be more likely to pass bold environmental laws along with a balanced budget, taxes, and fees to keep our state moving forward in the years to come.

New Central Coast district strongly favors Democrats

by Brian Leubitz

There were winners and losers in the redistricting process this year. Certainly Howard Berman and Brad Sherman were none too pleased to be forced to go around collecting endorsements right around now.  And Elton Gallegly and Lois Capps won’t be thrilled with their new toss-up seats either. (Gallegly has been talking retirement for years, so that may happen now.)

But the new Senate map draws more ire than any of the other maps.  Partially because Democrats are so close to getting a 2/3 majority, but also because a few gerrymandered seats were redrawn that will make them hard to keep in the GOP column.  Chief among those is the seat of Sam Blakeslee, who recently defeated friend of Calitics John Laird last year in a special election to replace temporary LG Abel Maldonado.  His seat was a toss-up, with a slight Democratic registration advantage.  The low-turnout special election obviously favored conservatives (and thus his victory), so even if he were running in the same district he would face a tough challenge against Asm. Bill Monning.  

But that is just the beginning for Blakeslee. The 17th Senate District is now essentially a Safe Democratic seat, with a 16pt Democratic registration advantage. (For more on safe/toss-ups, see this excellent CaliGirl in Texas diary.)  In a presidential year, with the expected high turnout, Blakeslee faces very long odds.

And give Blakeslee credit for acknowledging as much.

“I want my community to understand that by making this decision, I’m not walking away from a fight,” Blakeslee told The Tribune. “But I’m not willing to lose the entire last year in office in (a vain) pursuit of office. I’m 100 percent engaged to make sure this last year is the most impactful as it possibly can be.”(SacBee)

Now, Blakeslee did leave the door open if the district is more friendly when it is decided upon by the Supreme Court in San Francisco soon.  But, unless the district changes soon, it looks like we have a couple of good opportunities to pick up the 2/3 vote in the Senate

We’re waiting for results in the SD-15 race.  Here is the Secretary of State’s webpage for the race. Here’s the first batch:

Jim Fitzgerald 5606 5.8%

Mark Hinkle 1874 2.0%

John Laird 39857 41.5%

Sam Blakeslee 48617 50.7%

UPDATE by Robert: Returns are slowly being updated by the five counties. Here’s the latest, as of 10:16 pm:

Jim Fitzgerald 7277 5.6%

Mark Hinkle 2811 2.1%

John Laird 56653 43.2%

Sam Blakeslee 64352 49.1%

UPDATE by Brian: As of 12:07 AM, with 100% of precincts reporting:

Jim Fitzgerald 8014 5.1%

Mark Hinkle 3162 2.0%

John Laird 69649 44.1%

Sam Blakeslee 77107 48.8%

Sam Blakeslee will be the next Senator in SD-15.  Arnold’s gamesmanship worked like a charm.  By moving this election away from a real election date, he got what he wanted.  From the look of these numbers, I think we have a great shot of winning this election if it was held concurrently with the general in November.  I hope he’s going to pay the extra money that it took to win this seat for Blakeslee out of his own pocket.  

Today’s the day.  Well, not really today so much as the last few weeks have culminated with today.  Though it doesn’t really feel like an election day, today is the official election day along the central coast in the skirmish to replace St. Abel Maldonado since he was called up appointed to be the Lt. Governor.

Residents from Santa Clara County to Santa Barbara County — including Saratoga, Los Gatos, Almaden Valley and Morgan Hill — are choosing a replacement for former state Sen. Abel Maldonado, who was appointed lieutenant governor earlier this year.

Though the winner of ?today’s Senate race could help shape the outcome of the state’s muddled budget negotiations, the oddly-timed summer election is not likely to draw a high turnout.(SJ Merc)

I cannot stress enough the importance of electing John to the Senate. Beyond the numbers game in the Senate, which is plainly critical, John is the right person for the job.  He has the experience that we need, his work with the budget in the Assembly was superb.  And he is the kind of person, honest and hard-working that the legislature needs more of.  

If you know anybody in the district (PDF), please call them to make sure they have voted. If you are near the district, stop in to one of the campaign offices to help out.  And, you can always watch the twitter feed.

I really can’t be effusive enough about my respect and admiration for John Laird.  So, I was a bit disappointed to see Sam Blakeslee top the first round of voting.  And he is frightfully close to the magic 50%. Right now he’s sitting on 49.7% of the vote with all precincts reporting.  

Assuming that holds up we will have a run-off. With exactly the same candidates. Yes, you read that right. Because in special elections, every party leader goes to the general election, we’ll be seeing the same four candidates in the race. And turnout will be exceedingly low again.

So, in the next three months, we’ll need to work harder to claw back those 10,000 votes and turn out our voters.  Surely if we would consolidate this election with the general election, like it should be, we would be in a solid position come November.  However, Arnold chose to waste the money for another special election, so we will need to work ever harder to push John Laird over the top.

Back in 2008, Tony Strickland ran something of an interesting campaign to defeat Hannah-Beth Jackson.  He ran as a neo-environmentalist.  His mail was all about Green energy, and how he has quite the record in developing said energy.

Of course, you’d have to consider some pretty dirty energy to be “clean” to buy that. However, Strickland snuck through by a few thousand votes as enough people bought the hype.

Now, fast forward to today, and it’s all being run over again. This time it is Sam Blakeslee, the man who has consistently taken Big Oil dollars trying to make himself all clean and green.  It’s a tough task to be sure.

But CalBuzz goes ahead and punches the holes out of that story:

The blunt truth of the matter, however, may be found in 1) the lavish oil industry contributions shoveled into committees that have forked out more than $1 million to back Blakeslee’s play in the 15th State Senate district and 2)  the photograph posted at the top of this story, which shows exactly where the San Luis Obispo GOP assemblyman stood on offshore oil drilling in California – before that whole Gulf of Mexico thing made it really, really unfashionable. (CalBuzz)

As John Laird pointed out about his election, this truly is critical.  We’ll likely see Laird and Blakeslee in the runoff, but this is where we must start to tell Central Coast voters the real story. Fortunately, the CDP has gotten a virtual phone bank system up and running, so now’s the time.  The election is Tuesday, let’s push John Laird over the top.  Heck, maybe we can even avoid that runoff…

Sam Blakeslee is sad. So sad that he’s written an email (also over the flip) moaning about all of his WATB complaints to his Assembly Caucus about how the Governor is just not one of them.

He’s created a public policy disaster!!

But he has help in this policy disaster, the legislative Democrats.  And nobody is worse than Mark Leno and his infernal homosexual agenda! But there are others, and he’s been so kind as to make a Top 10 list. Oooh…it’s just like David Letterman, but maybe I should stay away from Letterman references these days.

You can see the whole list over the flip in the email, but it’s pretty much your standard right-wing craziness. Ammunition controls are inpinging on your right-wing legal theorist-given rights to warfare on demand. And of course, there’s your normal Prop 13 rhetoric.

But it gets worse, apparently, Arnold Schwarzenegger is, gasp, two-faced.

Blakeslee, R-San Luis Obispo, said the governor’s public pronouncements about bipartisanship in crafting a water deal have been contradicted by closed-door threats from Susan Kennedy, his chief of staff.

“In Sacramento, whether you’re on the right or the left or the center, people need to know that when you shake their hand, you can rely upon their word,” Blakeslee said. (SacBee 10/16/209)

Look, I won’t disagree with him on this. But he’s been in Sacramento for five years now. None of this should be new to him. You can’t trust Arnold’s word, you never could.

But, Arnold is Arnold. Erratic, inconsistent, and two-faced. On that, Sam Blakeslee and most progressives agree.

From: “Blakeslee, Sam”

To: “Assembly Republican Caucus”

Date: Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:57:45 -0700

Subject: Governor’s Signatures

Members:

Yesterday we all witnessed the public policy disaster perpetrated by the Governor’s hand.

His decision to sign into law some of the most noxious legislative proposals brought before us this year is both disheartening and

revealing.

Most of us have read in today’s papers accounts of the Governor’s shocking reversal of position on the issues about which we care most deeply: taxes, second amendment rights, family values, over-regulation, etc.

This sudden realignment of his position reminds us to remain vigilant as defenders of Republican principles: limited government, individual freedom and opportunity, the sanctity of the family, and public safety.

We as a Caucus must remain united if we are to prevail in protecting the California taxpayer, business and family from any further

onslaught of taxes, regulation, wasteful spending, and encroachment upon individual liberty.

Where we can find common ground with the Governor — and indeed with momentary coalitions of Democratic legislators — on issues which support our own legislative policy and philosophical goals, good.

But we should be under absolutely no illusions that the Governor will stand firm with our Caucus on any given issue.

As Benjamin Franklin once wryly noted, “We must hang together, or we most assuredly shall all hang separately.”

Below find a list of what are perhaps the top ten worst bills signed by the Governor.

Ten Worst Bills (Out of 478) that Governor Schwarzenegger Signed into Law

SB 54 (Leno) Recognizes outof-state homosexual marriages; violates basic principles of Props 8 and 22 and traditional marriage and family values.

AB 962 (DeLeon) – Restrictions and requirements on handgun ammunition sales; impinges upon law-abiding citizens and businesses.

SB 572 (Leno) — Declares May 22nd as Harvey Milk Day; champions homosexual political agenda to detriment of parental consent, traditional family values.

SB 18xxx (Ducheny) – Establishes major reductions in public safety by eliminating supervised parole for broad categories of felons; limits the ability to revoke parolees to state prison for parole violations, and allowing for six weeks of credit PER YEAR off an existing sentence.

SB 83 (Hancock) – Violates the 2/3rds vote principle of Propositions 13 and 218 to authorize a countywide transportation planning agency to place a majority vote ballot measure before the voters authorizing the imposition of an annual fee of up to $10 for every vehicle registered in the county for the purpose of funding congestion management and pollution mitigation programs.

AB 1053 (Solorio) – Weakens public safety by providing for a 90-120 day early release of Division of Juvenile Justice wards who will be released from division custody because they will reach either the maximum custody time or the jurisdictional age limit (either age 21 or 25, depending on the offense).

SB 104 (Oropeza) – Harms businesses and increases consumer costs by expanding the scope of the California Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32) by adding nitrogen trifluoride to the definition of “greenhouse gas.”)

AB 108 (Hayashi) – Increases healthcare costs for all by prohibiting health plans and health insurers, after 18 months from the issuance of an individual health plan contract or health insurance policy, from rescinding the individual coverage for any reason, and prohibits canceling, limiting, or raising premiums in a contract or policy due to any omissions, misrepresentations, or inaccuracies in the application form, whether willful or not.

AB 119 (Jones) – Similarly increases healthcare costs for all by prohibiting health plans and health insurers from charging a premium, price, or charge differential for health care coverage because of the gender of the prospective subscriber, enrollee, policyholder, or insured.

AB 286 (Salas) – In a manner similar to many measures, extends fee authority without the 2/3rds vote threshold of Propositions 13 and 218 extends the sunset date from January 1, 2010 to January 1, 2018 on the authority permitting counties to impose a $1 annual vehicle registration fee (additional $2 on commercial vehicles) — without a vote of the people. ***This bill is representative of many more that impose fees, increase fees, or improperly grant increased fee authority without a prior affirmative two-thirds vote of the affected electorate consistent with the letter and spirit of Proposition 218.

Examples:

SB 167 (Ducheny) – Waste tires;

SB 645 (Lowenthal) – Used oil;

SB 310 (Ducheny) – Water quality and storm runoff;

SB 260 (Wiggins) manufactured motor oil;

SB 676 (Wolk) – document recording  

LA Times had an article describing potential savings to the prison system.

Reporting from Sacramento — The state budget deal negotiated by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders would reduce the population of California prisons by nearly 27,000 inmates in the current fiscal year.

That would be done with a combination of new measures, including allowing some inmates to finish their sentences on home detention, creating new incentives for completion of rehabilitation programs and scaling back parole supervision for the least serious offenders.

Via Capitol Weekly, we see this glimpse behind the scenes as angry Republicans threaten to scuttle the budget over this.

Their “cut strategy” for prisons must have included the Governator’s original barbaric ideas to eliminate alcohol treatment and vocational training, rather than cuts in the prison population.

We start to see behind the curtain.

From: (Sam Blakeslee)

Date: July 21, 2009 3:21:24 PM PDT

To: (Assembly Republican Caucus)

Subject: Budget Double-Cross?

Throughout budget negotiations we insisted that Republican votes would never be provided for a budget deal that included early release of prisoners.



Our caucus and staff developed a cut strategy for corrections that provided the necessary savings to close the deficit without risking public safety.

We had a clear understanding with the democrats that NO corrections bill would be a part of the budget and that we would have an honest chance to contest the policy issues in the light of day in August.  

Just two hours ago I learned from staff that Senate democrats are concocting a radioactive corrections bill that includeds the worst of the worst _ sentencing commission and release of 27,000 prisoners, etc

When I spoke with Dennis he was as surprised and upset as I was regarding what appears to be a serious breach of the agreement in the Big 5.

I have called and personally told both Karen and Darrell that their will be no republican votes for any portion of the budget if they allow such a bill to be part of the package.

I will keep you posted.

Sam

Updated to include LA Times link and quote

To: Assemblymember Sam Blakeslee

Fax: 916-319-2133

Subject: We all live in Sam Blakeslee’s district

Dear Mr. Blakeslee,

In 2006, a young blogger wrote “We all live in Richard Pombo’s district.” He went on to explain that, because of his anti-environmental stance, everybody in the nation had an interest in Richard Pombo’s bid for reelection in California’s 11th congressional district. The post was widely reproduced and money poured in from across the country for Mr. Pombo’s opponent, Jerry McNerney. Phonebanks sprang up across California to support Mr. McNerney. People from all over Northern California went to his district to canvass voters. And my friends and I formed the core of his campaign staff.

With no prior political experience, Mr. McNerney defeated Mr. Pombo and serves in Congress today.

Today, we all live in Sam Blakeslee’s district.  

The world has seen how the decline of the U.S. economy impacted countries around the globe. As one of the largest economies in the world, the continued collapse of the California economy could imperil the fragile recovery. And your continued refusal to participate in a balanced budget solution for the state could precipitate that very collapse.

Without popular revenue increases like oil severance fees less than those charged in Alaska, or increased taxes on the wealthy equivalent to the rates charged under Governor Wilson, our state faces an untenable economic situation. With the cuts proposed by Governor Schwarzenegger, we stand to lose federal matching and stimulus funds that bring in as much as $9.00 for every $1.00 of state spending. We stand to lose state parks that bring in $720 million in business revenues in my county alone, and billions statewide. With your continued refusal to roll back the $2.5 billion in tax breaks for the six largest corporations in California-tax breaks you and your Republican colleagues extorted from the Assembly in last year’s budget negotiations-California faces cutbacks in essential services other businesses depend on.

As a business owner myself, I am much more concerned with good roads and adequate police and fire protection than I am about state tax rates. I am much more concerned that other businesses I depend on for services are able to survive than I am about a few paltry fee increases. I care a lot about whether the economic climate in the state will allow my clients to grow and thrive so that they will use my services. That is much more important to me than whether or not I will have to collect sales tax for them. Polls show that other business owners and managers agree with me, and not with you and your Republican colleagues.

The facts show that your economic arguments are lies. Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has shown that states with higher tax rates have not suffered more in the recession. Instead they have done as well or better. Facts prove that California does not have higher tax rates than other states. Instead we rank somewhere in the middle. I am tired of your lies. I am tired of your budget bullying and your refusal to consider sensible solutions to California’s budget problems.

And I am going to do something about it.

I have heard that you intend to run for Senate District 15 at the end of Senator Maldonado’s term. As I’m sure you know, Santa Cruz County is part of that district. I serve on the Democratic Central Committee in that County. I promise to recruit a candidate to run against you, and to make sure you go down to defeat. As I’m sure you also know, President Obama won in SD15, so this is not an idle threat.

But I won’t do it alone. The people who helped defeat Richard Pombo are still active. And, like me, they now all live in Sam Blakeslee’s district.

Sincerely,

Chris Finnie

Member, Santa Cruz County Democratic Central Committee