Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado has never been a favorite around these parts.  His budget machinations were cruel and unnecessary. He used the entire process merely to gain political advantage.  With any luck, we will be rid of him at the end of the year.

But his legacy just might live on in the muck that is Prop 14.  He came on to KQED’s Forum this week to discuss the “open” primary initiative. He had no facts. He had no support for his outlandish claims.  Just his gut.

Then the forum turns to California’s new lieutenant governor, Abel Maldonado, one of the main proponents of Prop. 14, and Richard Winger, one of the initiative’s more prominent opponents.  Maldonado’s performance is, in my humble opinion, a trainwreck.  He proceeds to list one complaint after another about the state government — it’s broken, it’s broke, legislators are highly partisan, they spend too much time on silly issues, they can’t pass a budget, politicians misrepresent themselves to voters, etc. — but then says that the solution is a top-two primary.  He never really explains how the latter would correct the former.

Meanwhile, Winger, to his credit, employs actual evidence debunking each of Maldonado’s claims one by one.  You say more open primaries would make it easier to pass a budget?  Well, it turns out the budget was plenty late during Calfornia’s use of the blanket primary a decade ago.  You say it would make the legislature less partisan?  Washington state used a blanket primary for decades, and they’re legislature is one of the most partisan in the country.  And so on.  And all Maldonado does is keep saying, “I’ve lived it.  I’ve been there.”  And then he repeats his talking points.  It’s not a very impressive spectacle. (Enik Rising)

See, you have to wind up St. Abel. Make sure he’s got his Talking Points down, and he can be Arnold’s voice in the Legislature, or really any other forum. But, ask him to explain himself, and this is what you get.

The problem with the “open” primary system is that it just doesn’t do what its supporters claim it will.  It doesn’t get people more involved.  As Seth Masket points out, if anything, it makes people less likely to vote.

But okay, maybe you still want a less polarized legislature.  Fine.  Would a top-two primary get you there?  Not really.  The evidence we have suggests that the effect would be small or negligible.  There turns out to be very little relationship between a state legislature’s partisanship and the openness of its primary elections.  Meanwhile, you’ll end up with many runoff elections between members of the same party, giving voters not of that party a lot less incentive to participate. (Enik Rising)

Here’s what you get with this mess.  In a purple district, you get candidates that will tack for the base to make sure they get into the general election.  If you get the lion’s share of the base, you are likely to get enough votes.  How do you do this? Get more polarizing. So, scratch that less polarizing thing.

And in districts where one party controls, you end up getting two candidates of the same party.  Let’s be honest, does a Republican have a lot of incentive to vote for either of two progressive democrats in a Blue seat? Would you want to vote between some of the two crazy Republicans we’ll get in a couple of these districts? Do you hold your nose and vote for the slightly less odious one? Perhaps, but it sure doesn’t inspire civic engagement to have to vote for some creep you disdain slightly less than the other creep.

Secretary Bowen tweets:

Abel Maldonado sworn in today as Lt Gov, meaning SD15 needs a special election. And Governor just proclaimed it: 6/22 primary, 8/17 general.

That means: less than four months to build a campaign that can prevail in a very winnable special election with a not insignificant Democratic registration advantage.

Mayor Gavin Newsom has entered the race for Lieutenant Governor, a job he ridiculed while running for Governor – and his supporters include San Francisco progressives who figure it’s an opportunity to get rid of him.  Nonetheless, an endorsement list that includes House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the California Teachers Association and Sacramento’s legislative leaders (along with an opponent with unimpressive fundraising totals) should make Newsom the front-runner for the Democratic primary.  But it won’t be pretty – given that Garry South (who ran his gubernatorial campaign) now works for his competitor, L.A. City Councilmember Janice Hahn.  The Hahn campaign has been vicious on Gavin so far, using the kind of scorched-earth tactics that South is famous for.  Newsom may win the nomination on June 8th, but he could end up suffering the same fate as Garry South’s last victim.  Phil Angelides had much of the Democratic leadership behind him when he ran for Governor, but only won the primary after a bruising fight with South client Steve Westly.  And it left him so bloodied that he went on to lose the general election by a landslide.

As a student of San Francisco politics, I’ve found the local chatter in the past few weeks surrounding Gavin Newsom’s run for Lieutenant Governor to be just plain bizarre.

His allies in the business community are incensed that he’d abandon the city to become Jerry Brown’s bridesmaid – and (God forbid) allow those crazy lefties on the Board of Supervisors to pick the next mayor.  Chuck Nevius’ column in the SF Chronicle last week read like it came from a jilted lover.   “Newsom wasn’t supposed to be the average career politician,” he lamented.  “Now he’s Gray Davis.”

Meanwhile, progressive are all too eager to show Gavin the door.  Supervisor Chris Daly, who once suggested at a public meeting that the Mayor was a cokehead, has endorsed him – and I’ve heard from tenant activists who now say that they will walk precincts for Newsom.  How in the world could any politician win statewide office, when your closest friends don’t want you to run – and your rivals are delighted to see you take the plunge?

But believe it or not, Newsom is poised to win the nomination on June 8th.  State Senator Dean Florez dropped out of the race the minute he got in, saying Gavin “commands a formidable lead that would be hard to surmount.”  And the Newsom camp sent out a list of endorsements that includes House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Assembly Speaker John Perez, State Senate President Darrell Steinberg, the California Nurses Association, the California Teachers Association, the UFCW Western State Council and Dolores Huerta.

The fundraising totals of his sole Democratic rival – Los Angeles Councilmember Janice Hahn – are also worth considering.  As of December 31st, Hahn had only raised $421,000 – and reported a cash-on-hand total of $341,000.  For comparison’s sake, at this stage of the Lieutenant Governor’s race four years ago John Garamendi had raised over $1.37 million – while his Democratic rival Jackie Speier was at approximately $1.28 million.

But Hahn has something Newsom lacks – Garry South, who was the Mayor’s chief strategist until he dropped out of the Governor’s race.  South, who worked for Gray Davis in 1998 and 2002, is the sole Democratic consultant in California to have run a successful campaign for Governor in 25 years – something not to be sneezed at.  And it was viewed as quite a coup when Newsom initially retained him in 2008.

And while Hahn’s fundraising leaves much to be desired, Gavin has the same problem.  The Mayor can transfer his defunct gubernatorial campaign account to the race for Lieutenant Governor, but there isn’t much left of it – only $40,000 as of December 31st.

Granted, Newsom raised over $2 million last year – and can now go back to his donors and ask again.  But while state law lets contributors give up to $25,900 to gubernatorial candidates, the Lieutenant Governor’s race limits donations to $6,500.  A quick look at Newsom’s campaign for Governor shows that over $1 million came from donations exceeding that amount, and half a million from contributors who gave over $20,000.  In other words, he won’t be able to raise $2 million from those people.

And with Garry South now running Hahn’s campaign, the attacks on Newsom have been brutal.  Gavin had disparaged the role of Lieutenant Governor before opting to run, even publicly admitting he had no idea what the job does – a point the Hahn campaign has fully taken advantage of.  But South has gone so far as to betray the confidence of his ex-client – divulging private statements Newsom made when South consulted him, where the Mayor had told him he was no “Gray Davis.”

Of course, we can expect nothing less from Garry South.  Known in California politics as the “King of Mean,” South has a long history of running scorched-earth campaigns – the most recent example being in 2006, when he ran Steve Westly’s campaign for Governor.  

In that race, Westly’s rival – Phil Angelides – had the endorsement of Senators Dianne Feinstein, Barbara Boxer and most of the Democratic Party establishment in the primary.  But in what can only be described as a muder-suicide pact, South waged an intensely negative effort against Angelides – leaving the bloodied front-runner limping past the finish line in June when it was all over.  

South then spent the whole summer and fall denouncing Angelides as a “weak nominee” who could not beat Governor Schwarzenegger, rendering it a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Many Democrats (including myself) will never forgive South for that conduct.

Could the same happen to Newsom if he beats Hahn?  The likely G.O.P. nominee – Abel Maldonado – lacks Arnold’s celebrity status, but has cultivated a moderate image that will make him tough to beat – especially in a year where Democratic turnout could be dangerously low.

Newsom could and should win the primary on June 8th, but his progressive rivals in San Francisco shouldn’t be celebrating a new Mayor just yet.  Gavin will still have to face a Republican in November, and if Garry South has his way he might not win that election.

Paul Hogarth is the Managing Editor of BeyondChron, San Francisco’s Alternative Online Daily, where this piece was first published.

Abel Maldonado is running for LG, whether or not he gets confirmed by the Legislature.  Just going on resources, Maldonado should have a big leg up.  Sen. Sam Anestad, the only serious threat to Maldonado in the primary, had less than $100K at the end of last year.  At this point, the race is his to lose.

So, in his speaking slot, Maldonado is trying to recast the framing of Latinos in his party.

“They agree with us more than they agree with the Democrats,” Maldonado told the delegates. “But we don’t talk to them. Ronald Reagan, our great president, what did he say? ‘Hispanics are Republicans. They just don’t know it.’ We can’t put up a bumper sticker during an election that says ‘Viva the candidate’s last name’ and expect that they’re going to vote for us. It’s not going to happen. We can’t go out and have a fiesta and have tequila and mariachis and tacos and think they are going to register as Republicans. That’s not going to happen.” (LA Times)

Of course, there’s a lot to parse here. Of course, he’s right that the republicans need to do more than just have a Cinco de Mayo party and expect voters to come running.  The way he said it was rather blunt, but true.

But where most of us would take issue would be the first two sentences in that paragraph.  While Maldonado might be able to point out a few issues that Latinos might vote a bit conservatively on, there is a reason that Hispanics voted overwhelmingly for President Obama, both here in California and throughout the nation.  To this day, the party harbors and tosses red meat to nativists who ignore the hope and promise of America for the disfavored. Their immigration policies are more than strict, they are insulting.  You can’t threaten to arrest community servants who help the sick and poor and expect to get votes from those who you demonize.

But beyond the simple immigration issue, the Republicans also need to take a long, hard look at their policies towards the middle class. Their refusal to support services don’t do any favors for working man.  They claim to fight taxes, yet want to tax students with ever-increasing “fees.”  They fight to protect corporations and the rich.  

Look, I won’t argue with Maldonado’s statement that Latinos are dedicated to the pursuit of the American dream.  But since Teddy Roosevelt left the Republican party, the Republicans haven’t had a real champion that speaks to anybody in the middle class, let alone the growing Latino electorate.

And frankly, Abel Maldonado isn’t that voice either.  He plays every side of every issue in public.  But when the rubber hits the road, he ends up going with the corporatist, moneyed side every time.

I need to say something: I <3 John Laird.

There, I said it. Former Asm. John Laird is neither flashy nor overly charismatic. But when it comes to quietly doing the work of the people, nobody works harder, knows his stuff better, or really understands the budget better than John Laird. And honestly, we really need him in the Senate.

So, as the Calitics editorial board has pointed out before, the Legislature should approve the nomination of Sen. Abel Maldonado to Lt. Governor. And while the race is going to be competitive, Laird has the horses to win the race:

Laird, a Santa Cruz Democrat, said Monday that the poll gave him a lead “in the low single digits.” Respondents were asked twice about the theoretical match-up, first near the beginning of the call with pollsters, then again “after every conceivable thing was thrown and him and me both,” Laird said. He said the lead grew slightly after potential negatives were given to respondents. (CapWkly)

This is a winnable race. And a winnable race for a solid progressive that will work his ass off to improve this state. For me, it’s an easy call what you do here. But some see otherwise, saying that it’s too big of a risk, that it gives up too much.  Here’s Asm. Pedro Nava:

I will be voting “no” to confirm state Sen. Abel Maldonado to the second-highest constitutional office in California, a heartbeat from the governor, that of lieutenant governor.

Much has been made of his congenial personality, his friendly demeanor and his one vote to increase the minimum wage. But in order to take Sen. Maldonado’s true measure, you need to examine over 150 votes on issues of great significance to all Californians – laws that impact farmworkers, health care, civil rights, labor, women, consumers, seniors and the environment. (SacBee)

Look, if given the choice, I doubt there are too many people that would vote for Abel Maldonado for dog catcher around here. Yet, that isn’t what this is about. This is a confirmation hearing, not a test of whether you like the guy.  Clearly, progressives aren’t going to like him, but the same was said of Bruce McPherson when he took over the  (arguably more important) SecState gig. The Assembly confirmed him then, including a vote from Asm. Nava. As Sen. Steinberg mentioned last week, this is a vote about whether Maldonado is competent to assume the LG job, and it’s hard to argue that Maldonado is any more or less competent to assume that rather powerless gig than any of the candidates in the race for 2010.

Sen. Maldonado’s votes are bad. Very bad. So, let’s get him out of the Senate where he is casting those votes and into a short stint as LG.

SD-15 needs John Laird. California needs John Laird. A few months of incumbency in a rather banal gig is a risk worth taking. The calculus doesn’t actually seem that hard. Confirm Maldonado, and let’s get to the business of electing Sen. John Laird.

From Tony Quinn, a Republican strategist, commentator, and author of the Target Book:

The likelihood is growing that the Democratic legislature, in a fit of partisan pique, will turn down Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s nomination of GOP Sen. Abel Maldonado to be lieutenant governor – at least that’s what the capital rumor mill says.

*** *** ***

But there one way for Schwarzenegger to ride to the rescue of his embattled nominee: triggering the nuclear option. And what would that be? Schwarzenegger should make it clear that if Steinberg and company reject Maldonado, he will see to it that the proposal titled: “Reduces Legislative Session and Pay by At Least 50 Percent” makes it onto the November ballot. (Fox&Hounds)

Really? Again with the we’re not going to confirm St. Abel stuff? Did you not read our letter? Clearly we needed to reiterate: Confirm him. Sure, he’s obnoxious, but a simple pro-con analysis yields some simple results.  

Confirm Maldonado.  Thank you.

So, remember how John Garamendi was elected to Congress out of the LG’s office? Well, that election will change the course of many others. Interestingly, many of the dominos are falling in the Fresno area, far from the Congressional district. A rough guide from the Fresno Bee:

The first domino to fall was Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s selection of state Sen. Abel Maldonado, R-Santa Maria, as his nominee to replace former lieutenant governor John Garamendi, who left the post when he was elected to Congress.

*** *** ***

Denham’s options grew last week when Assembly Member Tom Berryhill, R-Modesto, announced he was running for the state Senate seat of Dave Cogdill, R-Modesto, who is leaving after his first term. Some Valley Republicans want Denham to remain in the Legislature and think he would be a good match to replace Berryhill, the source close to Denham said. Denham would have to move however, because he lives just outside the district. (Fresno Bee

Now, much of this is to do with some hand-wringing in the Republican party over a primary fight for the LG race. But whether Denham runs or not, Sam Aanestad is still in the LG race, and has not indicated whether he would be willing to step aside for Arnold’s handpicked LG, Abel Maldonado. If there is a single conservative candidate in the Republican primary, Maldo is in even worse position. A split vote amongst conservatives could allow St. Abel to cruise through. If there’s only one conservative, Abel is in for more of a dogfight. Of course, Arnold would like to clear the field for Abel, but it isn’t like Arnold has much sway in the GOP these days.

You have to love (or not) the twisted game of musical chairs in Sacramento these days.

While we may not agree on St. Abel being the glorious one full of bipartisanship, Skelton and the Calitics editorial board do agree on one thing: Confirm Maldonado.

It would be particularly dumb for Democrats to dump all over a Republican who has fought with them in their foxhole. That would send a lousy message about the rewards of bipartisan cooperation.

The smart thing would be to confirm Maldonado. He may be too moderate to survive a GOP primary anyway.

Democrats could contest his vacated Senate seat in a special election. It’s competitive. Win that and they’re within one vote of a two-thirds majority. But Democrats aren’t confident they can capture that Central Coast seat in a low-turnout special election in what could be a Republican year.

They should do the right thing anyway: Confirm a decent, qualified guy and avoid another self-inflicted wound. (LAT)

Not much to disagree with about the electoral stuff; it is an excellent opportunity. Not an easy campaign by any stretch of the imagination, but a winnable campaign.

As for “decent, qualified guy”, well, I’m sure it’s not hard to find a few million people who would argue with his scheming of the budget process to get his dream come true open primary measure.

Interestingly, Maldo sees this job as a cheerleader for Arnold. Kind of appropriate as he has been his mouthpiece in the Senate for a few years.