Darrell Steinberg may no longer want a 2/3 majority, but Central Coast Democrats do, and we’re already starting to get organized for the coming battle to win SD-15. So too are the potential candidates, as the Santa Cruz Sentinel explains:

Former state Assemblyman John Laird of Santa Cruz and current Assemblyman Bill Monning of Carmel, both Democrats, say they would consider running for Maldonado’s seat. On the Republican side, Assembly Minority Leader Sam Blakeslee of San Luis Obispo has expressed interest….

While Laird said it was too early to decide on a Senate run, he said he would consider it should Maldonado become lieutenant governor. His bid would require him to move from his current home on Santa Cruz’s Westside, since he now lives in Sen. Joe Simitian’s district, to nearby Scotts Valley or points south, something Laird said he is willing to do.

“I represented a significant amount of that district when I was in the Assembly: Santa Cruz County, Santa Clara County, Monterey County,” he said.

Monning, who replaced Laird in the Assembly last year, said Tuesday he would also weigh a run for the Senate.

Meanwhile, Assemblyman Blakeslee, considered the Republican front-runner for Maldonado’s seat, has already raised more than a quarter million dollars to seek that office in 2012, according to filings with the Secretary of State. Blakeslee’s office, reached by phone Tuesday, declined to comment.

This all jibes with what I’m hearing on the ground here in Monterey County. It’s a certainty that Blakeslee would run in the special election on the Republican side, and he will likely have a clear field.

On the Democratic side, either Laird or Monning would be strong candidates. Both hail from the northern half of the district, so they’d have to run a strong campaign in San Luis Obispo County and Santa Maria, where Blakeslee currently represents. But given that SD-15 has a 6.5 point Democratic registration advantage, and given that we in SD-15 voted for Obama by a 20-point margin, there’s every reason to believe either Laird or Monning would be able to do well in the southern half of the seat. Plus, it’s not exactly going to be hard to entice Southern California progressive activists to make the trek to that part of the beautiful Central Coast in the spring to help organize in SLO and Santa Maria.

It is also unlikely that Laird and Monning would face off against each other. Instead they would almost certainly find some way to work it out and ensure that only one of them runs for the seat.

The race between Laird/Monning and Blakeslee would be a battle over California’s future. We can expect Blakeslee to argue that a vote for his Democratic opponent is a vote for a certain tax increase, and that a vote for Blakeslee is the only way to stop Democrats from raising taxes. Laird or Monning would counter by pointing out that they’re going to save local K-12 schools and higher education (San Jose State, UC Santa Cruz, CSU Monterey Bay, and Cal Poly SLO have been hit hard by the budget cuts, as have the district’s community colleges), and provide for the economic growth and recovery that Blakeslee and the Republicans refuse to offer.

It is the kind of battle Democrats and progressives should wholly embrace. Laird and Monning are both deeply progressive people, the kind of Democrats we can get excited about putting in office. Central Coast Democrats aren’t just excited about winning the seat, but winning it with the kind of Democrat that we’re proud to work hard to elect, the kind of Democrat who knows the way forward for our failing state.

No matter which Democrat ultimately becomes the candidate in SD-15, we will have the strongest chance we’ve had in a very long time to finally win the 2/3 majority we so desperately need in order to finally solve California’s crisis. Bring it on!

Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, back in July:

The 2/3 requirement that we have in this state. I know it’s a tired old saw. But when you really think about, that is the cause of so much of the dysfunction in the legislature. you have a minority party that obviously worked in tandem with the governor that cost the state 6-7 billion dollars tonight for no good reason. To somehow improve your negotiating position. It is without question the most irresponsible act that I have seen in my 15 years of public service…I hope that the significance will truly capture enough attention that the people will decide it is time to change the system that allows the minority to essentially rule the day. That’s not just the Senate Republicans, it was the Governor too, who was apparently out to prove a point. And he proved a point.

Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, today:

State Senate Leader Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento) released a statement expressing “grave doubts” about the choice. Maldonado needs the approval of the Democratic-dominated Legislature to take the post.

Steinberg cited the $2-million cost of the special election that would be required to fill Maldonado’s Senate seat, suggesting the money could be better spent scaling back recent fee hikes at state colleges and universities.

The Senate leader, under pressure to keep the post open for Democrats running for lieutenant governor themselves in next year’s election, also suggested he would like to see the job left vacant.

“It may be both fiscally and politically prudent to permit the people to make their own selection for this statewide office next year and avoid the expense of a costly special election,” his statement said.

Once again, we see that the State Senate is unwilling to actually do what it takes to overcome the 2/3rds rule that has crippled our state. Instead of seizing a golden opportunity to win one of the two seats we need to get a 2/3rds majority, Steinberg prefers to help coddle a fellow Democratic Senator’s unwillingness to face Maldonado in a general election.

Steinberg and other Senators are starting to put out the talking points to defend their weakness. But none of them hold water. The election to replace Maldonado here in SD-15 can be combined with the June primary, saving money. But even if it weren’t combined, the $2 million or so is statistically negligible when compared to the billions of dollars in cuts Steinberg is apparently willing to accept by refusing to take the chance to win a 2/3rds majority next year (along with the race to replace Jeff Denham in SD-12, a district with a D+12 registration advantage).

Additionally, voters themselves are going to have the chance to pick the next Lt. Gov., and confirming Maldonado will not change that fact, as Steinberg implies. If Steinberg believes Maldonado is a formidable candidate in the GOP primary or in the general election, he is badly misreading the political landscape.

Another argument we’re hearing is that Maldonado’s seat isn’t all that winnable:

Capitol Democrats said there was a more calculated political reason for not wanting to let Maldonado go. Democrats were humbled by this year’s election results in New Jersey and Virginia, and fear that 2010 could be a bad Democratic year. In addition, a low turn-out special election may make it tougher for a Democrat to win the 15th Senate District seat currently held by Maldonado.

Democrats have a slight 41-35 percent registration advantage in the district. Nearly 20 percent of the district’s voters are decline to state.  The district has been home to moderate Republicans like Bruce McPherson, and overwhelming voted for Schwarzenegger over Phil Angelides in 2006 – 61 percent – 34 percent. But in 2004, John Kerry narrowly carried the district over George W. Bush – 52 percent – 46 percent.

What the article doesn’t note is that Obama carried the seat by 20 points last year. And if it is turnout they’re concerned about, a candidate like John Laird will have no problem generating enthusiasm from progressives and Democrats across the state, who will gladly spend a late spring here on the Central Coast to put a good progressive in the State Senate.

More damning is the basic philosophy behind this “gee, winning the 15th is gonna be hard” nonsense. If Democrats are scared of winning a seat where they hold a 6 point registration advantage, a seat Obama won by 20 points, then they really have a serious problem providing the leadership this state needs.

Next year we’ll hear Democratic legislators exhorting us to help them in other Assembly and Senate races, saying that we have to help them win 2/3rds. But by refusing to actually go for 2/3rds when given the chance, they’re showing the California Democratic base that the Senate is fundamentally unserious about restoring majority rule.

The only conclusion one can draw from this is that Senate Democrats don’t actually care about the 2/3rds rule. That they prefer the status quo to having to actually take the opportunities they are given and take a winnable seat, or to set up a hated rival (Maldonado) to spectacularly fail when he can’t get elected Lt. Gov. next year.

UPDATE: The Courage Campaign, where I work as Public Policy Director, released this statement today on the Maldonado appointment:

“The best thing we can do right now is to remove Sen. Abel Maldonado from a position of importance where he can do great damage, the California State Senate, and place him in an irrelevant post, the Lt. Governor’s office,” said Rick Jacobs, Chair of the 700,000-member Courage Campaign. “For once, we agree with the Governor – Abel Maldonado should be demoted to Lt. Governor.”

Dear fellow Democrats,

Your most important task right now – above all others – is to solve California’s political and economic crisis. And as your own leader explained, at the heart of that crisis is the undemocratic rule creating a conservative veto over all state policy via the 2/3rds rule.

Therefore, in order to deal with that task, your highest electoral priority is to win a 2/3rds majority in the State Senate. The party a clear majority of Californians have asked govern this state – the Democratic Party – should be able to govern this state and lead us out of the worst crisis we’ve faced in decades, if not longer.

Without a 2/3rds majority, California faces deeper budget cuts that will produce very real suffering for many of your constituents. In addition, the ongoing budget crisis continues to give Republicans an opportunity to reverse recent Democratic gains, which at some point may include the State Senate itself. Those factors should be enough to convince you that when you have an opportunity to win a 2/3rds majority, you should take it.

Especially when this year you have seen the fruits of not having a 2/3rds majority – and the fruit of cutting a bad, self-defeating political deal involving the same Abel Maldonado.

When your previous leader, Don Perata, agreed to prevent a Democrat from launching a meaningful challenge to Maldonado in the 15th State Senate district, not only were Central Coast Democrats denied a realistic chance to be represented in Sacramento, but a golden opportunity to get to the 2/3rds mark in the Senate was lost. After all, the most recent registration numbers show that SD-15 is a blue district, with 41% Dems, 34.5% Reps, and 23% DTS. It is a district Obama won by over 20 points.

It is a district that, because of Don Perata’s deal, sent Abel Maldonado back to Sacramento without a real reelection fight. Once there, Maldonado used his role as a deal-maker to force through a major change in how state elections work in the form of the top two primary. Most of you don’t like it, and are going to try and defeat it, and if it passes it’s going to seriously screw with your future plans.

But it, and other bad deals, are constantly coming your way because you don’t have a 2/3rds majority.

2010 offers an invaluable opportunity for you to finally reach 2/3rds. Of the key State Senate races next year, the only seat you have a chance of flipping from red to blue is SD-12. Anna Caballero is going to run a great campaign and win that seat. But unless you can find another seat to add to her victory and bring us to 2/3rds, nothing will change.

That is, unless you vote to confirm Abel Maldonado, and put SD-15 into play. Sure, you could wait until 2012 when the seat comes open – but by then legislative districts will have been drawn by the Prop 11 commission, and who knows what the landscape will look like. Why pass up an opportunity to have a Democratic governor and 2/3rds in the Senate – especially when we can find 3 seats to pick up in the Assembly?

Now, some may complain about giving Abel Maldonado a leg up on the competition. This is a ridiculous consideration for two reasons. First, even if it were true, it’s a price well worth paying to get to 2/3rds, which is after all your top priority.

Second, even a cursory glance at the politics shows Maldonado will not be much of a threat, and should be easily defeated by a Democrat next fall. In case you’ve forgotten, he is hated by the Republican base for his February budget vote. Those people have long memories. Even before that vote he was having trouble winning primaries thanks to the fundamental and deeply-seeded racism of the California Republican electorate.

Even if Maldonado somehow staggers through the primary, he will be bloodied and bruised, and quite a bit poorer for the effort. We are confident that either Dean Florez or Janice Hahn will be able to defeat him in the general election.

Calitics has been a strong critic of Abel Maldonado. He is certainly not our first, second, or seventy-third choice for the Lt. Gov. office. But we are willing to swallow it for the greater good. You need to do so as well.

There is no credible reason to refuse to confirm Maldonado. The only reason you would be doing so is by placing the ambitions of other Senators above your own, and above the needs of a state facing a crisis so deep and so crippling that it threatens much more than Republican control of the Lt. Gov. office.

We need a party and a Senate Democratic caucus that is aggressive, assertive, bold, and confident in its ability to lead California out of the crisis. If you refuse to confirm Abel Maldonado, you would be showing Californians that you in fact lack that confidence.

We don’t know how much clearer we can make it. If you refuse to confirm Abel Maldonado as Lieutenant Governor for any reason other than incompetence or ethical misdeeds that make him unfit to serve, then you are abandoning your obligations to California Democrats and to the people of this state.

I’ll admit I’m a little incredulous, but Media News has Sen. Abel Maldonado as the Governor’s pick to replace John Garamendi as Lt. Governor.

The choices seem endless as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ponders his pick to fill the now-vacant lieutenant governor’s job. But the path that many expect the governor to take invariably leads back to one person: Sen. Abel Maldonado, R-Santa Maria.

Several sources close to the administration said privately that Maldonado is the likely choice for two reasons: He has bailed out the governor with a number of critical votes – on budgets and taxes, for which the governor may feel some debt – and would sail through the Democratic-controlled Legislature for confirmation.

“Schwarzenegger has settled on Maldonado. I’m hearing it’s him,” one person close to the administration said, asking not to be identified. (CoCo Times 11/6/09)

The relationship between Maldonado and Arnold really is a complicated one.  Arnold didn’t endorse Abel back in his statewide primary for Controller, which he eventually lost to Asm. Keith Richman. However, a day after the primary, Abel attacked Arnold for not doing enough for him, saying “When he needs Latinos, Latinos are always there for him … when Latinos need him, the answer’s been no.”.  And then a day later he apologized.  It was all very dramatic.

But since that time, Maldo has done everything he can to get back in the Governor’s good graces.  Going so far as to basically being his bad cop on negotiations to get the Top-2 primary system that will end up being a waste of Democratic resources.

And from a standpoint of getting this through, it seems to have less enemies throwing roadblocks.  In the senate you will have the 4 LG candidates opposed, but whether they can muster the votes to block confirmation is an open question. It seems the only way to get a Republican LG, and for the Dems it gives them a shot at Maldo’s senate district. Can anybody say Sen. John Laird?

If Arnold is really serious about this, I think he just keeps Bob Hertzberg as Plan B or perhaps just leaves the office empty.

UPDATE 4: Added video of Speaker Bass on the stopgap.

UPDATE 3:The Senate has adjourned for the evening, with Sen. Steinberg requesting the “comity shown in the Assembly.”

UPDATE 2: SB 64 has failed due to the 2/3 rule, it will be reconsidered later.

UPDATE: Hollingsworth says he isn’t interested in anything less than a full solution. Senate is in debate now. You can watch the Senate session live here.

In a rather convincing bi-partisan manner, the Senate budget cut measures that failed to garner 2/3 support in the Senate have now been approved by the Assembly overwhelmingly.  The package is a mixture of cuts and payment deferrals that would keep delay the issuance of IOUs until at least August.

Once again, Twitter is the best source of news. From John Myers’ feed:

Bill #3 appears headed to passage, which means it’s now up to the Senate to possibly challenge Guv to veto the $5 bil in temporary cash.

31 minutes ago from TwitterBerry

Asm GOP leader Blakeslee: “I am heartened that Repubs and Dems are working together.” Calls the stopgap measures a “first step.”

33 minutes ago from TwitterBerry

Assmbly has reconvened to vote on bill #3 of the “stopgap pkg” (three of the deficit relief bills that would avoid IOUs next month).

37 minutes ago from TwitterBerry

To add some more context, the Governor has been saying that he would veto any measure that bought additional time.  However, it appears that the Assembly GOP, with the approval of these three measures to avoid July IOUs, has decided that they don’t feel the same way.  If the Senate GOP gets on board with the Assembly GOP, we might see a showdown between the branches of government and the possibility of the first legislative override in over 25 years.

However, it is far from clear that the Senate GOP will get on board with Sam Blakeslee’s delaying tactic.  In the last round, they rejected cuts as insufficient to address the entirety of the problem.  However, with their Assembly colleagues on board, will they change their stance? Well, there will be one voice in the room to block the IOUs, Abel Maldonado.  From the Great Maldo’s twitter feed:

IOUs to the people of california are not an option

about 4 hours ago from TwitterBerry

Caucus just ended, I still believe we are close to a whole solution.. More to come.

about 4 hours ago from TwitterBerry

Need more than just cuts. People demand refrom. Solution should be combo: north of $13 billion cuts and real reform.

12:33 PM Jun 24th from TwitterBerry

Honestly, I have no idea of what kind of game Maldonado is running at this point. Is he in the Senate GOP Caucus advocating for outright tax increases? Doubtful. But, according to a tweet from Myers yesterday, Maldo is thinking of offering his own solution.  What “real reform” means? Again, this is Maldo speaking, so it’s anybody’s guess.

We should hear something about the Senate votes today.

UPDATE by Dave: It does not look like Zed Hollingsworth and the Senate will go along with this.  So we’re not getting anywhere with this maneuver.