It is a rare day that every major candidate for the California governor’s race is from Northern California, but that’s they way it is today. And specifically, all three Republicans are from the Silicon Valley.  It’s generally a Democratic leaning area, as it is hard to find a Republican in the Bay Area at all.  But in the Valley, Republicans tend to be the less dogmatic type than you’d find in the Central Valley.  They’ll focus less on social issues and more on their own pocket books. They want a generally functional government, but would like to get it on the cheap.

And that’s why despite the fact that all three candidates are from the area, Tom Campbell’s wonky campaign carries some sway.  In a poll by San Jose State’s Survey & Public Research Institute (PDF, Campbell was shown with a pretty hefty lead in Silicon Valley. While the poll was quite small and the margin of error was huge (6.9%), the size of the lead means there is something to this data. Campbell is at 39%, Whitman 11%, Poizner 7, and the famous “Undecided” at 41.

Campbell is a wonk and a bit of a nerd. And perhaps that is what is playing so well down there. Or perhaps it is the fact that he has represented much of the region when he was in Congress. But for whatever reason, Silicon Valley Republicans are leaning hard for Campbell. The question with Campbell in this race is always the money question. Can he come up with enough cash to really compete with Whitman and Poizner. He can’t self finance, and he’ll need to spend a hefty chunk of change to really make any headway with the right-wing base of the party.

However, if Campbell does manage to squeak out, he probably makes for a very tough campaign for the Democratic nominee, whether it be Jerry Brown or some other late announcing candidate. While his “solutions” tend to be pretty much the same as his former boss, Arnold Schwarzenegger, he is still able to talk the moderate talk.

(You can find Poizner’s remarks here. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

Willie Brown has been known to bring in big names, and it is really hard to say no when he asks you to come speak at one of his events, or any event really.  So, as you may have guessed, everybody was at his “Breakfast Club” this morning. Arnold, all the candidates, and, well, everybody except the reclusive Meg Whitman. You’ll have to forgive my camera work.

The speeches went as you would expect them.  Poizner, Campbell, and Brown all gave speeches. All of which I missed, however, I did get reports from a solid (Democratic) source, who called Tom Campbell the best of the bunch.  Jerry Brown’s speech was just a standard stump speech, and according to Carla Marinucci, Brown has no inclination to announce his candidacy anytime soon.  And Poizner, well, he was Poizner.  

Check out the full wrap over the flip.

Poizner apparently lectured the crowd, especially any educators in the group, about how principals ignored him when he cold-called schools wanting to teach.  Let’s rewind to get the background on this.  Poizner knew he wanted to get himself elected to something after he made a bunch of money in the business world. So, he started calling principals of many local peninsula schools. Shockingly, nobody called the crazy guy back who wanted to volunteer at the schools. Note to Poizner: You know how many pedophiles would have tried that game if we just opened up the doors to anybody with a halfway decent education? And just to show off how brilliant he truly is, he went ahead and listed off his accomplishments, and was shocked that a principal would find him unqualified for his own classroom. Because, in the Republican world, being successful in business makes you qualified for Everything!

I stood in at an impromptu press avail for Poizner with Carla Marinucci, and got a bit more information. He tweaked Whitman for not showing up at debates, and trying to wait until March. But the important, and kind of crazy part, was that Poizner said that he wants a clear mandate, and wants voters to buy into his (kind of scary) plans for the state. He doesn’t want the votes of those who don’t follow his plan for the state.  Kind of bold there.

Now, to Campbell, he delivered a speech saying that he was going to deliver “25 Whoppers” ie things that politicians say that have no real meaning. On the left and the right. From my source, I got some doozies like “You can lower taxes to raise revenue,” a direct shout out to Poizner’s “economic plan.”  And “Everything would be better if we ran the state like a business” was pointed toward Whitman, who has advocated that relentlessly.  Campbell pointed to the Legislature and said, how does that fit into a corporate structure?

Campbell is good, and if he can find some way to get through that Republican primary, he could be a very tough opponent for any Democrat, Jerry Brown or otherwise.  Of course, the fact that Campbell isn’t loaded in a race with two super-rich candidates is a major problem to his viability in the race. I actually think that his rhetoric could throw the race into a scrum even if he only runs as an independent.  But, again, money is the huge problem for Campbell. He just can’t raise enough to be really competitive.

And then Arnold struts on the stage, welcoming some elected officials saying how he loves the job. And four minutes into the speech he busts out with this line:

I’ve been hear four minutes, and nobody has screamed to kiss my gay ass yet. So I love this crowd.

Of course, this is a reference to Tom Ammiano’s remark at the SF DCCC gala event. However, I was unable to catch this part of the video, so you’ll have to do with his listing of reasons why he loves California. Sorry for the crazy camera work.

However, there was some substance to the speech. he discuss the stimulus package, of which he is a big fan. With $18.5 Billion already received, and the state expecting $50 bn. total, it is obviously a big deal. And to those who say it isn’t worth it, Arnold says to go ask the teachers who weren’t laid off whether it was worth it.  He also pitched California’s HSR, real HSR, not that 120 mph stuff they want to do on the East Coast. Arnold wants to get most, if not all, of the federal stimulus for HSR.

On water, Arnold outlined the problem, with most of the water coming from NorCal, and most of the users coming from SoCal. He clearly wants the Peripheral Canal. He framed it as part of Pat Brown’s infrastructural plan of the 1960s, and it was just one part that never got built.  Good idea, but those who have followed will remember that it was more than just funding that was blocking the construction of the peripheral canal. He wants the bond package to pass with both Rep and Dem support, and it will likely be around $10 bn.

He then goes on to praise ever possible aspect of Arne Duncan, Obama’s education secretary, for the “race to the top” scheme. He had always wanted to create the link between achievement and teacher pay, and this is how he is getting it done, by hanging federal cash over the heads of the CTA. He is also excited at the opportunity for greater public school choice, and to allow students from any area enroll in any school. Of course, this is hugely problematic for the neighborhood school concept and having schools in the bad parts of town across the state. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that the motivated parents will move their kids to the good schools, while those who aren’t so caring let their kids sit in the bad schools. Making the good schools better, and the bad schools worse.  It’s a recipe to leave a whole group of children behind. But as I wrote in my notes: Arnold Hearts Duncan.

Arnold can’t pass up any opportunity to rail against the tax system, but he only lightly suggested the Parsky plan. It is clear that that particular plan is dead in the water, Arnold really wants to get some changes in before 2010 elections roll around. Whether these changes will be good for the state is an open question.

Arnold Schwarzenegger’s right-wing Director of Finance, Mike Genest, is resigning from his post, after being the governor’s point man on the budget since 2005. And after being the governor’s point man on gutting the state these last few years, he is leaving with a few parting shots. Not at the current governor, but at one of the hopefuls looking to replace him: Steve Poizner. As Genest tells it to George Skelton, Poizner’s 10-10-10 tax cut plan is a political non-starter as well as economically and financially ruinous:

“Tax cuts do tend to improve the economy,” Genest says, “but it’s very hard historically to find where they result in a revenue increase. You could argue that the best thing for the economy is to have no taxes at all, but people depend on some government services. Without them, we don’t have any economy. If you don’t believe me, look at Somalia.”

Genest continues: “There’s no basis to believe that a tax cut now would be affordable given the budget situation the state faces. I know Rush Limbaugh is going to hate me.”

As for deeper spending cuts, Genest says: “You can always cut spending by 10%. The question is do you want to. We just tried to close parks, and that didn’t work out. We tried to take money away from women’s shelters and had to relent on that.”

I like Genest’s honesty here – he says they wanted to close parks and cause further harm to battered women, but that public outcry prevented this. One wonders if Democratic leaders will get the message: Arnold can be forced to back down if the Dems refuse to go along with his hurtful cuts by mobilizing public outrage. Skelton, for once, helpfully connected the dots and showed that the attack on government itself actually hurts instead of helps businesses and jobs:

There’s also a dispute about whether businesses and wealthy Californians really are fleeing the state to escape high taxation. Many think any fleeing has more to do with high property costs, traffic congestion and subpar public schools.

“If high income taxes were chasing away rich Californians, high-income households would be more likely than low-income households to move to states without income taxes, but they aren’t,” the Public Policy Institute of California reported in July. And two years ago, the institute found that “when California businesses relocate, most stay within — rather than moving out of — the state.”

This gets to a fundamental truth that most Californians understand, but that Poizner is determined to ignore: without strong public services, California is an undesirable place to live, work, create, and innovate. The best way to chase away businesses and jobs is to destroy our schools, wipe out our health care system, and let our transportation system become paralyzed through gridlock and dependence on oil.

In fact, a coalition of business groups have come together to fight for one of the big government spending programs designed to help California’s crisis – high speed rail. I fully expect Poizner to oppose the high speed rail project, so I would like to see him explain that opposition to the corporations that comprise the SF Chamber of Commerce, the Bay Area Council, and the Silicon Valley Leadership Group, who together founded the new HSR coalition.

Skelton also quoted from Lou Cannon, noted biographer of Ronald Reagan, who pointed out that the Republican hero himself supported several tax increases in California, including the largest ever (as a proportion of the budget) to close a budget gap in 1967. At least while he was governor, Reagan understood the role of government in providing for the California Dream.

It’s a role Poizner refuses to understand, even when a fellow right-winger like Mike Genest tries to explain it to him. Although I’m sure it will play well with the teabagger base.

In the Democratic primary, there’s really not much conversation to speak of. Basically, you have Gavin Newsom running around trying to increase name ID by conducting town halls and the like. Jerry Brown is just patiently waiting back for the spring, or so it seems.

But that is hardly the case on the Republican side. The three candidates have been lobbing hand grenades at each other for several months now. Two of them, Poizner and Whitman, are former CEOs who have given money to, gasp, Democrats.  The other, Tom Campbell, is a self-described champion of bipartisanship.

But how do you show the right-wingers of the party, ie the party base, that you are the Real Republican. Well, if you’re Tom Campbell, you don’t try, and just call yourself bipartisan. I know that might work to pull in 20% in early polls, but that strategy seems like quite the longshot in a Republican primary that tends to skew hard right.

Meanwhile, as Poizner and Whitman go for the “conservative” mantle, they have to deal with their Democratic skeletons in the closet:

Whitman gave $4,000 to Boxer in November 2003 and an additional $4,000 to Boxer and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee that same month, according to the Federal Election Commission.

Whitman also endorsed Boxer in 2003 as a member of the group Technology Leaders for Boxer. In a joint letter publicized by the Boxer campaign, Whitman wrote, “Barbara Boxer is a courageous leader and friend of California’s technology industry.”

*** *** ***

Poizner has faced similar questions about his contributions to Gore and the Gore/Lieberman Recount Committee, which funded the Democratic candidate’s unsuccessful legal efforts in the aftermath of the 2000 election. (SacBee 10/26/09)

Of course, that they each have these issues takes out much of the teeth out of this fight. Unless Tom McClintock is somehow lured into this race, Whitman and Poizner are only judged on a curve defined by the other.  If a longtime Republican conservative enters the race, the complexion changes markedly. However, at this point the field seems to have solidified.  McClintock is really the only name conservative that would be able to have a major impact on the race.

So, press releases are tossed back and forth on who is the Real Republican, and still the phrase has no meaning and no value to the bulk of California voters.

California political junkies are buzzing about the new Rasmussen poll which shows former Governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown handily leading all the major Republican gubernatorial contenders (Meg Whitman, Steve Poizner and Tom Campbell) while Brown's rival for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination trailing the same three possible Republicans. Here's the data:

Brown (D) 44%, Whitman (R) 35%
Brown (D) 45%, Poizner (R) 32%
Brown (D) 44%, Campbell (R) 34%
Whitman (R) 41%, Newsom (D) 36%
Poizner (R) 40%, Newsom (D) 36%
Campbell (R) 42%, Newsom (D) 36%

This is definitely NOT very good news for the Governor Gavin movement. That's too bad, because MadProfesah has been leaning towards Newsom, especially since Gerry Brown hasn't announced whether he wants the job (again) yet, and acting as attorney general, Brown was responsible for the devastatingly incompetent presentation by an Assistant Attorney General during the Proposition 8 California Supreme Court oral argument.

UPDATE by Dave: I would say that this poll is fairly meaningless. I’m guessing Rasmussen pushed leaners hard to get any kind of opinion. I don’t think anyone has really engaged on this race, and anyone thinking it will remain static isn’t being honest. This is more of a reflection of name ID, for good and ill, than anything else.

Last week, Meg Whitman raised some eyebrows when she vowed to suspend implementation of AB 32, California’s landmark global-warming law.  This drew criticisms from the usual suspects, and also happens to be broadly unpopular in a state which supports action on climate change.  It was also a thumb in the eye of the current Governor and practically the only policy on which he can claim a legacy.  So Schwarzenegger came out today and said Whitman’s making an idle threat that she doesn’t mean.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger today dismissed a vow by Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman to suspend California’s landmark greenhouse gas law if she’s elected to succeed him next year as “just rhetoric that is going on among the candidates.”

“You will hear all kinds of stories,” Schwarzenegger told an audience at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco. “What will happen in reality and what they will do when they go into office is probably a whole different ballgame, and I think she will probably reconsider what she said.

“I’m sure she does not want to be counted as one of those Republicans that will want to move us back to the Stone Age or something like that,” the Republican governor said. “So I would pay no attention to this kind of rhetoric.”

Of course, relics from the Stone Age are the target demographic for a Republican primary, so Whitman has to say what she said.  And she’s not being accused of political pandering by, of all people, Arnold Schwarzenegger.  Which should make for a fun weekend when the two appear together at the GOP convention in Indian Wells starting tomorrow.

Whitman’s more pressing problem is that she has virtually no voting record as a private citizen, apparently having not even registered to vote prior to 2002.  In an amusing moment of brazenness, Steve Poizner called on her to end her campaign as a result.

Poizner’s camp issued a statement in response to the story this morning, attacking the Whitman campaign for “refusing to answer simple questions and deliberately lying to cover up the facts” and calling for the candidate to “step aside” and drop out of the race.

“It’s understandable that Meg Whitman is ashamed of this record. But it’s unacceptable that she continues to run from the record and deceive voters. Though there is no shred of evidence she ever registered as a Republican before 2007, she insists she did, yet she refuses to provide any evidence. Her arrogant answer: ‘Go find it,’ ” Communications Director Jarrod Agen said in a statement. “In the history of America, no one has been elected governor of a state with Meg Whitman’s 25 year history of no-show voting. She is unelectable and has tried to cover her lack of honesty with millions of dollars.”

Hysterical.  By the way, if you think eMeg’s voting record is bad, take a look at iCarly’s.  Quite a team they’ll make on the GOP ticket next year…